How the Chaos Theory is Defeated in the Yabu Meteorological Station, Cuba

In this work, 8 weather variables were modeled at the Yabu meteorological station, Cuba, a daily database from the Yabu meteorological station, Cuba, of extreme temperatures, extreme humidity and their average value, precipitation, was used. The force of the wind and the cloudiness corresponding to the period from 1977 to 2021, a linear mathematical model is obtained through the methodology of Regressive Objective Regression (ROR) for each variable that explains their behavior, depending on these 15, 13, 10 and 8 years in advance. It is concluded that these models allow the long-term forecast of the weather, opening a new possibility for the forecast, concluding that the chaos in time can be overcome if this way of predicting is used, the calculation of the mean error regarding the forecast of persistence in temperatures, wind force and cloud cover, while the persistence model is better in humidity, this allows to have valuable information in the long term of the weather in a locality, which results in a better decision making in the different aspects of the economy and society that are impacted by the weather forecast. It is the first time that an ROR model has been applied to the weather forecast processes for a specific day 8, 10, 13 and 15 years in advance.

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A SLR Pre-Processing Algorithm Based on Satellite Signature Effect

Applied Sciences ◽

10.3390/app11198880 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (19) ◽

pp. 8880

Author(s):

Bowen Guan ◽

Cunbo Fan ◽

Ning An ◽

Ricardo Cesar Podesta ◽

Dra Ana Pacheco ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mean Value ◽

Observation Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Error Sources ◽

Effect Model ◽

The Mean ◽

The Stability ◽

First Time ◽

Satellite Signature Effect

As one of the major error sources, satellite signature effect should be reduced or even erased from the distribution of the post-fit residuals to improve the ranging precision. A simulation of satellite signature effect removal process for normal point algorithm is conducted based on a revised model of satellite response, which fully considers the structural and distribution characteristics of retroreflectors. In order to eliminate both long-term and short-term satellite signature effect, a clipping method for SLR data processing is proposed by defining the clipping location as 5.6 mm away from the mean value of the long-term fit residuals to select effective returns for normal points. The results indicate that, compared to normal points algorithm, the RMS per NP of LAGEOS-1 observation data processed by the clipping method is reduced from 62.90 ± 9.9 mm to 56.07 ± 4.69 mm, and the stability of RMS is improved 53%. This study improves the satellite signature effect model and simulates the fluctuation of normal points caused by satellite signature effect for the first time. The new method based on the simulation of satellite signature effect has stronger robustness and applicability, which can further minimize the influence of satellite signature effect on the SLR production and significantly improve the data property.

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Wood quality and value production in mixed fir-spruce-beech stands: long-term research in the Western Carpathians

Forestry Journal ◽

10.1515/forj-2016-0010 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 62 (2) ◽

pp. 98-104 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Rudolf Petráš ◽

Julián Mecko ◽

Michal Bošeľa ◽

Vladimír Šebeň

Keyword(s):

Wood Quality ◽

Abies Alba ◽

Repeated Measurements ◽

Mixed Stands ◽

Average Value ◽

Mean Diameter ◽

Stem Quality ◽

The Mean ◽

Value Production

Abstract Stem quality and damage was evaluated in mixed spruce-fir-beech stands. Moreover, an assortments structure was determined with their financial value. Results were compared with pure spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.), fir (Abies alba Mill.) and beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) stands. Repeated measurements on 31 long-term research plots, stand assortment models, assortment yield models and value yield models were used. Stem quality of fir and spruce was only slightly lower in mixed stands compared to pure stands but beech stem quality was considerably worse in mixed stands. Fir and spruce had slightly lower proportions of better IIIA quality logs and higher proportions of IIIB quality in mixed stands. Beech had worse assortment structure than spruce and fir, in general. Pure beech stands had higher proportions of better I–IIIA quality assortments than mixed stands by 1–7%. Fir and spruce average value production (€ m−3) culminated at about 56 and 62 cm mean diameters. Almost the same value production was found in pure stands. In these stands it culminated at the mean diameter of 58 and 60 cm. Beech produced substantially less value on the same sites. In mixed stands, its value production culminated at the mean diameter of 40 cm. In pure stands, it culminated at the mean diameter of 36 cm. Although the production was found to be similar in both mixed and pure forests, higher damage intensity and less stem quality in mixed forests suggest that the pure forests can be more profitable.

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Evaluation of wet troposphere path delays from atmospheric reanalyses and radiometers and their impact on the altimeter sea level

Ocean Science Discussions ◽

10.5194/osd-11-1613-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 1613-1642 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

J.-F. Legeais ◽

M. Ablain ◽

S. Thao

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Weather Forecast ◽

Atmospheric Model ◽

Path Delay ◽

Medium Range Weather Forecast ◽

The Mean ◽

Microwave Radiometers

Abstract. The assessment of long-term errors in altimeter sea level measurements is essential for studies related to the mean sea level (MSL) evolution. One of the main contributors to the long-term sea level uncertainties is the correction of the altimeter range from the wet troposphere path delay, which is provided by onboard microwave radiometers for the main altimeter missions. The wet troposphere correction (WTC) derived from the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) atmospheric model is usually used as a reference for comparison with the radiometer WTC. However, due to several improvements of the processing, this model is not homogenous over the altimetry period (from 1993 onwards), preventing the detection of errors in the radiometer WTC, especially in the first altimetry decade. In this study, we determine the quality of WTC provided by the operational ECMWF atmospheric model in comparison with the fields derived from the ERA Interim (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Predictions/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalyses. Separating our analyses on several temporal and spatial scales, we demonstrate that ERA Interim provides the best modeled WTC for the altimeter sea level at climate scales. This allows us to better evaluate the radiometer WTC errors, especially for the first altimetry decade (1993–2002), and thus to improve the altimeter MSL error budget. This work also demonstrates the relevance of the feed-backs that the "altimetry" and "atmosphere" communities can bring to each other.

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Profiling Aerosol Optical Properties at the Central Asian Site of Dushanbe, Tajikistan: Pure Dust Cases

EPJ Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/epjconf/202023702027 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 237 ◽

pp. 02027

Author(s):

Julian Hofer ◽

Dietrich Althausen ◽

Sabur F. Abdullaev ◽

Abduvosit N. Makhmudov ◽

Bakhron I. Nazarov ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Optical Properties ◽

Central Asia ◽

Asian Dust ◽

Aerosol Optical Properties ◽

Central Asian ◽

The Mean ◽

Ground Based Lidar ◽

First Time ◽

532 Nm

Tajikistan is often affected by atmospheric mineral dust originating from various surrounding deserts. The direct and indirect radiative effects of that dust play a sensitive role in the Central Asian climate system and therefore need to be quantified. The Central Asian Dust Experiment (CADEX) provides for the first time an aerosol climatology for Central Asia based long-term aerosol profiling by ground-based lidar (PollyXT type) in Dushanbe, Tajikistan. For pure dust cases, mean depolarization(lidar) ratios of 0.23±0.03(44±3 sr) at 355 nm and 0.32±0.02(38±3 sr) at 532 nm wavelength have been measured. The mean extinction-related Ångström exponent was 0.18±0.15.

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Sulphation of Topsoil in Hehua Village, Zhijin County, Guizhou Province

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.700.360 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 700 ◽

pp. 360-363

Author(s):

Xiu Ping Hong ◽

Jiang Wei Bai ◽

Hong Jie Wang

Keyword(s):

Southwest China ◽

Mean Value ◽

Guizhou Province ◽

Endemic Fluorosis ◽

Average Value ◽

The Mean ◽

Total Sulfate ◽

Western Guizhou ◽

New Discovery

The endemic fluorosis in western Guizhou Province,southwest China was confirmed to be collected with high-content fluorine in topsoil (clay for coal-burning) of Hehua Village, Zhijin County,Guizhou Province ,which was considered to be closely associated with the long-term occurrence of endemic fluorosis. The new discovery in this article confirms that the mean value of apparent acidity of topsoil (pHa) in this village is 4.92;The measured average value of total sulfate radical was 4465μg/g. In addition, the apparent acidity and the content of total sulfate were positively correlated (correlation coefficient:0.7920).The result shows that the topsoil in this village is acidic and may belong to sulphation.

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Evaluation of wet troposphere path delays from atmospheric reanalyses and radiometers and their impact on the altimeter sea level

Ocean Science ◽

10.5194/os-10-893-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 10 (6) ◽

pp. 893-905 ◽

Cited By ~ 27

Author(s):

J.-F. Legeais ◽

M. Ablain ◽

S. Thao

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Weather Forecast ◽

Atmospheric Model ◽

Path Delay ◽

Medium Range Weather Forecast ◽

The Mean ◽

Microwave Radiometers

Abstract. The assessment of long-term errors in altimeter sea level measurements is essential for studies related to the mean sea level (MSL) evolution. One of the main contributors to the long-term sea level uncertainties is the correction of the altimeter range from the wet troposphere path delay, which is provided by onboard microwave radiometers for the main altimeter missions. The wet troposphere correction (WTC) derived from the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) atmospheric model is usually used as a reference for comparison with the radiometer WTC. However, due to several improvements in the processing, this model is not homogenous over the altimetry period (from 1993 onwards), preventing the detection of errors in the radiometer WTC, especially in the first altimetry decade. In this study, we determine the quality of WTC provided by the operational ECMWF atmospheric model in comparison with the fields derived from the ERA-Interim (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Predictions/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalyses. Separating our analyses on several temporal and spatial scales, we demonstrate that ERA-Interim provides the best modeled WTC for the altimeter sea level at climate scales. This allows us to better evaluate the radiometer WTC errors, especially for the first altimetry decade (1993–2002), and thus to improve the altimeter MSL error budget. This work also demonstrates the relevance of the interactions between the "altimetry" and "atmosphere" communities, since the expertise of each is of benefit to the other.

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The Importance of Sorediate Crustose Lichens in the Epiphytic Lichen Flora of the Swiss Plateau and the Pre-Alps

The Lichenologist ◽

10.1006/lich.1996.0022 ◽

1996 ◽

Vol 28 (3) ◽

pp. 245-256 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Michael Dietrich ◽

Christoph Scheidegger

Keyword(s):

Epiphytic Lichen ◽

Swiss Plateau ◽

The Mean ◽

Long Term Observation ◽

Individual Trees ◽

Crustose Lichens ◽

First Time ◽

Vegetative Propagules ◽

Lichen Flora

AbstractStandardized lichen surveys were conducted on 849 trees in 132 ecological long-term observation plots in the Swiss Plateau and Pre-Alps: 262 lichen taxa were identified, 64 (24%) of them sorediate crustose species. Their mean percentage of the flora on individual trees and in individual plots was even higher. The mean percentage of crustose lichen species with vegetative propagules, such as soredia, was per plot significantly higher in the Pre-Alps than in the Plateau, higher in forest than in non-forest areas, and, according to the vegetation belts, lowest in the colline-submontane zone. It was found that the biodiversity of lichens could not be determined without considering the sorediate crustose lichens. Furthermore, by performing standardized surveys of all taxa, the occurrence of the following species in Switzerland was confirmed for the first time: Cliostomum leprosum, Fuscidea arboricola, Fuscidea pusilla, Hypocenomyce leucococca, Hypocenomyce sorophora, Lecanora norvegica, Lepraria eburnea, Lepraria elobata, Lepraria jackii, Lepraria obtusatica, Lepraria rigidula, Pertusaria boreahs and Rinodina griseosoralifera. Seven taxa that displayed distinctive chemistry, could not yet be identified.

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Population status and distribution of Ibisbill Ibidorhyncha struthersii (Vigors, 1832) (Aves: Charadriiformes: Ibidorhynchidae) in Kashmir Valley, India

Journal of Threatened Taxa ◽

10.11609/jott.6632.13.6.18614-18617 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (6) ◽

pp. 18614-18617

Author(s):

Iqram ul Haq ◽

Bilal A. Bhat ◽

Khursheed Ahmad ◽

Asad R. Rahmani

Keyword(s):

Field Study ◽

Conservation Planning ◽

Population Status ◽

Intensive Study ◽

Kashmir Valley ◽

The Mean ◽

First Time ◽

Seasonal Population ◽

Reconnaissance Surveys

A field study was carried out for the first time in Kashmir Valley to investigate the population status and distribution of Ibisbill. The initial reconnaissance surveys conducted across Kashmir Valley, indicated that the Lidder River in district Anantnag and Sindh River in district Ganderbal harbor populations of Ibisbill. During the intensive study carried out in the river Sindh from September 2017 to August 2018, the mean population size was maximum (36±8.63) at Stretch I and minimum (3±1.35) at stretch II. The seasonal population of Ibisbill was maximum (25.66±18.44) in the autumn and minimum (10±9.35) in the winter. The present study indicated that river Sindh provides an ideal habitat for Ibisbill, and was most widely used by the bird. We recommend further intensive research studies on the lesser known aspects of ecology and biology of this enigmatic species for long term conservation planning in the region.

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Statistical associations of teleconnection indices and space weather with spring weather pattern in the Eastern Baltic region

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16522 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Giedrė Kacienė ◽

Jonė Venclovienė ◽

Deivydas Kiznys

Keyword(s):

Solar Wind ◽

Space Weather ◽

Baltic Region ◽

Weather Variables ◽

Short Term ◽

Teleconnection Patterns ◽

Teleconnection Indices ◽

The Mean ◽

The Baltic

The studies of associations between solar inputs and climate are mostly designed for winter or cold period; whereas the knowledge about these associations during spring on a day-to-day time scale are very scarce. Therefore, the aim of this study is to detect the response of spring air temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), and atmospheric pressure (ATP) to variation in teleconnection indices and space weather variables on the day-to-day timescale during the period of 1998&#8211;2017 in six cities of Eastern part of the Baltic region. We created a multivariate linear regression model for weather variables including month, the linear and seasonal trend, different teleconnection patterns, El Ni&#241;o&#8211;Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) phase, the presence of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW), and space weather variables.The multivariate models for the mean daily weather variables showed a positive association between T and the daily Arctic oscillation (AO), monthly Scandinavian pattern (SCA) indices, solar proton events (SPEs) with a lag of 1-9 days, and solar wind dynamic pressure (P) with a lag of 1-2 days and negative association between T and East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) index. The linear and seasonal trends, the presence of SSW during March, and changes in AO, EA/WR, and SCA indices explained about 73% of the variation in mean daily T in the investigated region in spring. The presence of the daily mean proton flux of > 10 MeV and energy over 10 pfu with a lag of 1-9 days and higher P with a lag of 1-2 days were also related to higher mean T. The mean RH positively correlated with a long-term and short-term variation in galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar wind speed (SWS) with a lag of 0-6 days and negatively correlated with EAWR and NINO3.4 indices. The seasonal variation, the presence of SSW during March, the QBO phase, and the changes in the EA/WRI and ENSO explained over 38% of variation in the daily mean RH in spring.The mean ATP was negatively associated with both long-term and short-term changes in GCR and positively associated with the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), EA/WR, and SCA indices, By component of interplanetary magnetic field with a lag of 2 days, P, days of Stream Interaction Regions (SIRs), and SWS with a lag of 4-6 days. These space weather variables had stronger effect on spring ATP in the eastern part of the Baltic region as compared to stratospheric events and teleconnection patterns. Results of the present study show the significant short-term effects of SSW, SPEs, SIRs, and solar wind variables on spring weather pattern in the Eastern part of the Baltic region.

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Sexual Behaviour, Sexual Health and Pornography Consumption among Secondary School Students in Iceland

Research in Health Science ◽

10.22158/rhs.v2n1p55 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 55

Author(s):

Freydís J. Freysteinsdóttir ◽

Ástrós E. Benediktsdóttir

Keyword(s):

Secondary School ◽

Sexual Health ◽

Sex Education ◽

Sexual Behaviour ◽

School Students ◽

Pornography Consumption ◽

The Mean ◽

Comprehensive Sex Education ◽

First Time

The aim of this study was to gain knowledge about secondary school student’s sexual behaviour and sexual health as well as their pornography consumption. A questionnaire was prepared and answered by 384 students in five colleges selected based on a stratified random sample. Most of the students were 18-20 years of age or 87%. One of the main results was that the majority of the participants had seen pornography (86%). The mean age of participants when they saw pornography for the first time was 13. Men were significantly younger than women when they viewed pornography for the first time and spent more time watching pornography than women. Nearly half of all participants had not always used a condom when they had engaged in sex with a person that they did not have a long-term relationship with. Pornography and its consumption has been constantly growing over the past few decades. One of the main reasons for its growth is increasing technology and easier access to the Internet. Comprehensive sex education has not grown as rapidly as pornography, which can be considered a huge risk factor in the shaping of young people’s sexuality and their sexual health.

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