The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Cocaine and Marijuana Mandatory Minimum Sentencing

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Geert Dhondt
Keyword(s):  
Crime Rate ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Prison Population ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Violent Crime Rate ◽  
Percent Increase ◽  
Prison Populations ◽  
Mandatory Minimum Sentencing ◽  
Positive Effect

Simultaneity between prison populations and crime rates makes it difficult to isolate the causal effect of changes in prison populations on crime.  This paper uses marijuana and cocaine mandatory minimum sentencing to break that simultaneity.  Using panel data for 50 states over 40 years, this paper finds that the marginal addition of a prisoner results in a higher, not lower crime rate. Specifically, a 1 percent increase in the prison population results in a 0.28 percent increase in the violent crime rate and a 0.17 percent increase in the property crime rate. This counter-intuitive result suggests that incarceration, already high in the U.S, may have now begun to achieve negative returns in reducing crime.  As such it supports the work of a number of scholars who have suggested that incarceration may have begun to have a positive effect on crime because of a host of factors.

Official Crime Rates and Residents’ Sense of Security Across Neighborhoods in Tokyo, Japan

2016 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimihiro Hino ◽  
Masaya Uesugi ◽  
Yasushi Asami
Keyword(s):  
Social Capital ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Crime Rate ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Sense Of Security ◽  
Violent Crime Rate ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Official Crime

The aim of this study was to investigate, in consideration of individual attributes and neighborhood-level social capital, the association between official crime rates and sense of neighborhood security among residents in the 23 wards of Tokyo, Japan, using data obtained from a national questionnaire survey and police statistics on crime for 511 neighborhoods. We found that crime rates affected residents’ sense of security differently according to the type of crime committed and the spatial scale. Regarding individual attributes, sense of security among men and those aged 35 to 49 years was in line with the actual property crime rate, whereas that among women and the elderly was in line with the actual violent crime rate. In addition, even when controlling for social capital, which had a strong positive effect on residents’ sense of security, and individual attributes, all crime rates except that for violent crime were significantly related to residents’ sense of security in their neighborhood.

scholarly journals Canadian crime rates in the penalty box

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 105
Author(s):  
Simon Demers
Keyword(s):  
Violent Crime ◽  
Crime Rate ◽  
Major League Baseball ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Additional Research ◽  
National Hockey League ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Violent Crime Rate ◽  
Major League

Over the 1962 to 2016 period, the Canadian violent crime rate has remained strongly correlated with National Hockey League (NHL) penalties. The Canadian property crime rate was similarly correlated with stolen base attempts in the Major League Baseball (MLB). Of course, correlation does not imply causation or prove association. It is simply presented here as an observation. Curious readers might be tempted to conduct additional research and ask questions in order to enhance the conversation, transition away from a state of confusion, clarify the situation, prevent false attribution, and possibly solve a problem that economists call identification.

Community and the Crime Decline: The Causal Effect of Local Nonprofits on Violent Crime

2017 ◽  
Vol 82 (6) ◽  
pp. 1214-1240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Sharkey ◽  
Gerard Torrats-Espinosa ◽  
Delaram Takyar
Keyword(s):  
Nonprofit Organizations ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Crime Rate ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Urban Sociology ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Community Life ◽  
Percent Reduction ◽  
Crime Decline

Largely overlooked in the theoretical and empirical literature on the crime decline is a long tradition of research in criminology and urban sociology that considers how violence is regulated through informal sources of social control arising from residents and organizations internal to communities. In this article, we incorporate the “systemic” model of community life into debates on the U.S. crime drop, and we focus on the role that local nonprofit organizations played in the national decline of violence from the 1990s to the 2010s. Using longitudinal data and a strategy to account for the endogeneity of nonprofit formation, we estimate the causal effect on violent crime of nonprofits focused on reducing violence and building stronger communities. Drawing on a panel of 264 cities spanning more than 20 years, we estimate that every 10 additional organizations focusing on crime and community life in a city with 100,000 residents leads to a 9 percent reduction in the murder rate, a 6 percent reduction in the violent crime rate, and a 4 percent reduction in the property crime rate.

scholarly journals Violent crime rates as a proxy for the social determinants of sexually transmissible infection rates: the consistent state-level correlation between violent crime and reported sexually transmissible infections in the United States, 1981–2010

Sexual Health ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 419 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harrell W. Chesson ◽  
Kwame Owusu-Edusei ◽  
Jami S. Leichliter ◽  
Sevgi O. Aral
Keyword(s):  
Social Determinants Of Health ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Social Determinants ◽  
Crime Rate ◽  
State Level ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Violent Crime Rate ◽  
The Social ◽  
Sexually Transmissible Infection ◽  
Transmissible Infection

Background Numerous social determinants of health are associated with violent crime rates and sexually transmissible infection (STI) rates. This report aims to illustrate the potential usefulness of violent crime rates as a proxy for the social determinants of STI rates. Methods: For each year from 1981 to 2010, we assessed the strength of the association between the violent crime rate and the gonorrhoea (Neisseria gonorrhoeae) rate (number of total reported cases per 100 000) at the state level. Specifically, for each year, we calculated Pearson correlation coefficients (and P-values) between two variables (the violent crime rate and the natural log of the gonorrhoea rate) for all 50 states and Washington, DC. For comparison, we also examined the correlation between gonorrhoea rates, and rates of poverty and unemployment. We repeated the analysis using overall syphilis rates instead of overall gonorrhoea rates. Results: The correlation between gonorrhoea and violent crime was significant at the P < 0.001 level for every year from 1981 to 2010. Syphilis rates were also consistently correlated with violent crime rates. In contrast, the P-value for the correlation coefficient exceeded 0.05 in 9 of the 30 years for the association between gonorrhoea and poverty, and in 17 of the 30 years for that between gonorrhoea and unemployment. Conclusions: Because violent crime is associated with many social determinants of STIs and because it is consistently associated with STI rates, violent crime rates can be a useful proxy for the social determinants of health in statistical analyses of STI rates.

scholarly journals Does Three Strikes Really Deter? A Statistical Analysis Of Its Impact On Crime Rates In California

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-36
Author(s):  
John Kelly ◽  
Anusua Datta
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Prison Population ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Deterrent Effect ◽  
Crime Statistics ◽  
Limited Time ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Three Strikes

This study uses California crime statistics for the years 1984-2004, to determine what effect, if any, the increased sentencing standards under the three-strikes legislation in California have had in deterring crime. This study follows a new approach in differentiating between the incapacitation effect and the deterrent effect of the law. Incapacitation is tested by tracking the change in prison population. Our results show that the three strikes legislation had a significant deterrent effect on total and property crime, but not so for violent crime. We find no support for incapacitation in the limited time period following the three-strikes legislation.

scholarly journals The Effects Of Education On Alabama’s Violent Crime Rate

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 5-14
Author(s):  
Richard Fast
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Crime Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Problem Analysis ◽  
Formal Schooling ◽  
Scientific Discussion ◽  
Violent Crime Rate

This paper summarizes the arguments and counterarguments within the scientific discussion on the issue of the effect of education on violent crime, specifically in the U.S. state of Alabama. The main purpose of the research is to determine whether more education leads to a decrease in the rate of violent crime. Systematization of the literary sources and approaches for reducing the violent crime rate indicate that increasing education, particularly the number of people with at least a high school or associate’s degree, can be one influential tool in cutting crime. The relevance of this scientific problem analysis is that Alabama has one of the highest violent crime rates in the United States according to crime watch sources, and Alabama residents desire safer neighborhoods. Investigation of what effect education has on crime in the paper is carried out in the following logical sequence: Introduction, literature review, data and analysis, and conclusion. Methodological tools of the research methods include econometric analysis using log-linear, linear-log, and log-log models covering population, educational attainment, violent crime rate, and unemployment rate of each county over five years: 2011-2015. The object of research are all the counties of Alabama, because namely they have some of the highest crime rates in the United States. Coincidentally, Alabama also has one of the lowest educational attainment rates in the country; the average American has more years of formal schooling than the average Alabama resident, and the crime rates of all other U.S. states compared to Alabama reflect this important fact. The paper presents the results of an empirical analysis of how more education impacted the violent crime rate in that state, which showed that, with one exception, more years of schooling does indeed result in less violent crime. The research empirically confirms and theoretically proves that, in the majority of cases, a better educated populace is less likely to commit violent crime.The results of the research can be useful for educators, law enforcement, and criminal justice practitioners.

The downside of downsizing: Persistence of racial disparities following state prison reform

2021 ◽  
pp. 146247452110060
Author(s):  
Amy E Lerman ◽  
Alyssa C Mooney
Keyword(s):  
Racial Disparities ◽  
Prison Population ◽  
Mass Incarceration ◽  
Prison Reform ◽  
State Prison ◽  
Probation And Parole ◽  
Substantial Progress ◽  
Prison Populations ◽  
Racial Ethnic ◽  
Double Digit

Nationwide, prison populations have declined nearly 5% from their peak, and 16 states have seen double-digit declines. It is unclear, though, how decarceration has affected racial disparities. Using national data, we find substantial variation in state prison populations from 2005–2018, with increases in some states and declines in others. However, although declines in the overall state prison population were associated with declines for all groups, states with rising prison populations experienced slight upticks in prison rates among the white population, while rates among Black and Latinx populations declined. As a result, greater progress in overall decarceration within states did not translate to larger reductions in racial disparities. At the same time, we do not find evidence that a decline in prison populations is associated with a rise in jail incarceration for any racial/ethnic group. In additional exploratory analyses, we suggest that recent incarceration trends may be driven by changes in returns to prison for probation and parole violations, rather than commitments for new crimes. Our results make clear that while efforts to reverse mass incarceration have reduced the size of prison populations in some states, they have not yet made substantial progress in resolving the crisis of race in American criminal justice.

Is a Decentralized Police Organization a Better Option in a Modern Democratic Society? A Case Study From South Korea

2021 ◽  
pp. 109861112110420
Author(s):  
Sungil Han ◽  
Jennifer LaPrade ◽  
EuiGab Hwang
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Fear Of Crime ◽  
Police Department ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Clearance Rates ◽  
Crime Clearance

While western countries have had a decentralized policing model for many years, some countries, such as South Korea, still employ a centralized, national police department. Responding to calls for reform, South Korea launched a pilot program and implemented a more decentralized policing structure in Jeju Island in 2006. This study adds to the policing literature by offering the empirical comparison of a region before and after decentralization of a police department. This study will examine the intervention effects of police decentralization in Jeju, specifically related to crime rates, crime clearance rates, victimization, trust in police, and fear of crime. Using propensity score matching and interrupted time series analysis, this study found that the decentralized policing intervention significantly reduced total crime, violent crime rates, and property crime rates that lasted throughout the intervention period, while improving crime clearance rates for violent crime, as well as reduced fear of crime among residents.

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