scholarly journals SIMULATION-BASED FORECASTING EFFECTS OF AN ACCIDENTAL EXPLOSION ON THE ROAD. PART I: METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK

Transport ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 165-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Egidijus R. Vaidogas

Forecasting mechanical actions induced by accidental explosions on the road is of crucial importance to assessing potential damage to structures and non‐structural property exposed to them. A logical result of such forecasting may be expressed in the form of probabilistic models. They should quantify likelihood of occurrence and physical characteristics of accidental explosions. Generally the models are to be selected under the conditions of sparse statistical information on intensities and likelihood of explosive actions. The first part of the present paper proposes a simulation‐based procedure intended for selection of the probabilistic models in the absence of direct statistical data on the explosive actions. The proposed procedure is formulated in the context of the classical Bayesian approach to risk assessment. The main idea of the procedure is that statistical samples necessary for fitting the probabilistic models can be acquired from a stochastic simulation of an accident involving an explosion on the road. The proposed simulation‐based procedure can be used for damage assessment and risk studies within the methodological framework provided by the above‐mentioned approach. A case study illustrating an application of the proposed procedure is given in the second part of the paper.

2005 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 225-242
Author(s):  
Egidijus R. Vaidogas

Prediction of mechanical, thermal, and chemical actions induced during man‐made accidents (accidental actions) is of crucial importance to assessing potential damage to structures exposed to these actions. A logical result of such a prediction may be expressed in the form of probabilistic models describing likelihood of occurrence and characteristics of accidental actions. For many types of accidental actions the models are to be selected under the conditions of incomplete knowledge about and/or scarce statistical information on intensities and likelihood of imposition of the actions. This paper proposes a simulation‐based procedure intended for a selection of the probabilistic models under these conditions. The proposed procedure is formulated in the context of the classical Bayesian approach to risk assessment. The main idea of it is that statistical samples necessary for fitting the probabilistic action models can be acquired from a stochastic simulation of accident sequences leading to an imposition of accidental actions. Formally, the stochastic simulation of accidents serves the purpose of propagating uncertainties related to the physical phenomena capable of inducing accidental actions. These uncertainties are quantified in line with the classical Bayesian approach. The simulation‐based procedure can be used for damage assessment and risk studies within the methodological framework provided by the above‐mentioned approach.


2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dean R. Manna ◽  
Gayle Marco ◽  
Brittany Lynn Khalil ◽  
Sara Meier

The traditional definition of sustainability calls for policies and strategies that meet societys present needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (1). Sustainability is a concern in private and public sectors all over the world; it is an issue that resonates with people in all age ranges, income levels, and geographic locations. The main idea of sustainability is reduce, reuse, and recycle. People and organizations alike must consider every possible effect from the decisions they make in regards to the environment. With over 600,000,000 passenger cars on the road in the world, and over 50,000,000 passenger cars built each year, it is imperative that automakers make sustainable decisions (2). It is not just the large number of vehicles in the world that is cause for concern, but the immense amount of resources needed to manufacture, transport, and fuel them. Automakers must consider the impact that each car has during every stage of its life cycle, in addition to their responsibility to society (in terms of the environment, education, and safety) and the impact of their suppliers. This case study is designed to discuss the background of Toyota and highlight the companys current actions in regard to sustainable marketing; a comparison will also be made to the sustainable efforts of Honda and Subaru.


Transport ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 118-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Egidijus Rytas Vaidogas ◽  
Lina Linkutė ◽  
Dainius Stulgys

A case study describing a simulation-based prediction of geometric characteristics of a road tank accident is presented. The case study evaluates the performance of the accident prediction model proposed in the first part of this study (Vaidogas et al. 2012). The prediction of accident characteristics is decomposed into three tasks: (i) prediction of the longitudinal rest position of the tank vehicle within the road segment under analysis; (ii) prediction of the transverse rest position with respect to road centreline; and (iii) prediction of the departure angle of the tank. These tasks are performed by applying stochastic (Monte Carlo) simulation. The results of the prediction are simulated samples of the geometric accident characteristics. These samples are considered to be input information for the assessment of risk posed by a potential explosion of tank vehicle vessel. In this case study, the potential targets of the explosion are three reservoirs built in the roadside territory. The case study presents and discusses in detail probabilistic models used for the simulation. It is stated that a considerable part of these models are chosen subjectively due to scarcity of circumstantial data on road tank accidents. The predictive Bayesian approach to risk assessment is used as a methodological basis of the simulation. Results of the simulation are intended to be utilised for increasing the safety of transportation of hazardous materials by road tanks.


Transport ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 231-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Egidijus R. Vaidogas

The paper contains a case study covering forecasting mechanical effects of an explosion which can be generated during a road accident. It illustrates a practical application of the simulation‐based procedure developed for such forecasting in the first part of the paper. The case study reveals the amount and character of the knowledge necessary to carry out this forecasting. Its final result is a probabilistic model describing likelihood of occurrence of accidental explosion as well as characteristics of the incident blast wave generated by this explosion. The accident simulation is based on the classical Bayesian approach to risk assessment. The case study described in the paper shows how to formulate the initial knowledge in line with this approach. Particular attention has been given to handling subjective information (expert opinions) within the problem under analysis. It is shown that this information is indispensable for dealing with the sparseness of hard experience data on most of the phenomena leading to an accidental explosion. The stochastic simulation demonstrated in the paper serves the purpose of propagating uncertainties related to these phenomena. The probabilistic action model describing the potential explosion takes account of these uncertainties.


2021 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 11-25
Author(s):  
Jolanta Brzykcy

The article is an analysis of the poetry of Gisella Lachman (1895–1969), poet of the “first wave” of Russian emigration, from the perspective of the poetics of space. The poet expressed her emigration experience (multiple changes of residence: Russia, Germany, Switzerland, USA) in her poems in spatial relations. They appear on different levels of the works’ morphology: in the construction of the lyrical “I”, in the organisation of the presented world, in the repertoire of motifs and the selection of poetic lexis and genre forms. Space plays a literal role in Lachman’s poetry; it is a representation of extra-literary reality, seen subjectively. It is also subject to metaphorisation, becoming a tool for expressing philosophical content. The poet creates not only a spatial model of the world, but also a spatial model of human life, which she perceives as a transit on the road to eternity.


2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-142
Author(s):  
Daria Słonina ◽  
Grzegorz Kusza ◽  
Mateusz Mikołajów

Nowadays, a significant part of cities is tackling the problems with post-mining areas. This manuscript is an original research which shows possibilities of their reclamation. The aim of the article is to present the proposal of developing the closed limestone quarry and creating a botanical garden. The proposed spatial solutions allow for creating a new, tourist and recreation space, maintaining the natural heritage. The work also assumed carrying out a dendrological inventory, in order to determine the existing dendrofl ora. The required spatial, nature and communication analyses, which illustrate the current condition of the area and defi ne further design works, have also been carried out. The main idea of the project was to maintain the particular biodiversity, combined with regional culture and its continuous development. This type of assumption aims not only at protection of endangered species. It also has a great role in shaping the awareness of natural environment of various social groups. The creation of a rainforest substitute in the Opole Botanical Garden was possible through selection of the existing afforestation, considering its adaptation as well as through liquidation and introduction of new trees, shrubs, perennial and climbing plants, which shall emphasise the tropical landscape type by their shapes, texture and colours. The project includes many elements, which reflect the general image of humid rainforests. The planned vegetation in connection with the appropriately selected architecture shall undoubtedly influence visitors’ senses, transferring them to the ‘wild’ and mysterious part of the world.


2021 ◽  
Vol 297 ◽  
pp. 01019
Author(s):  
Abdeslam Houari ◽  
Tomader Mazri

6G of mobile networks plays a crucial role in improving the capacity and enhancing the quality of services of Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) based networks evolving in an intelligent environment. VANET is a promising project in the intelligent transportation field using V2X communications. The emergence of several 5G and 6G technologies has raised several challenges for scientists and researchers to allow vehicles and road users to enjoy several services while ensuring their safety on the road. Among these technologies, the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), which can perform different tasks for road users and vehicle drivers such as data caching, packet relaying and processing. In this article, we present a new approach based on 6G Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) technology on a vehicular cloud architecture while exploiting the exchange support of information-centric networking (ICN) for the improvement of network capacity.


Author(s):  
Geetha A. ◽  
Subramani C.

<p><span>The modeling of a car is essentially done by taking into consideration the driving terrain, traffic conditions, driver’s behavior and various other factors which may directly or indirectly affect the vehicle’s performance. A vehicle is modeled for given specifications and constraints like maximum speed, maximum acceleration, and braking time, appropriate suspension for the gradient of the road and fuel consumption. Henceforth, a profound study and analysis of different drive cycles are essential. A time dependent drive cycle is a condensed form of data that helps us to determine the time taken to conduct the driving test on the road. This article highlights the development of a real driving cycle in the area of Tamilnadu, India. On-road vehicle’s speeds versus time data were obtained along the selected route. The data obtained were analyzed first and then a new driving cycle was developed.</span></p>


2008 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 20-25
Author(s):  
Dick Clarke

Is “the new modernism” in domestic architecture—sometimes called “internationalism”—a useful step on the road toward sustainable buildings? Mindless recreations of traditional forms from other times and places are no better, as many writers have noted, but any building's natural and cultural context must play a fundamental role in the design, materials selection, and even the detailing, if sustainability is to be more readily achieved. The role of place-based planning has been well researched and reported (Clarke 2006; Mant 1998, 2000; NSW Department of Urban Affairs and Planning 2001). Less well understood is the role of “localness” in building design. This informs the overall form of buildings, and their detailing, as well as their technical functionality. A local understanding stems from a sense of materials, climate, and indigenous or local culture, and informs the design process at every level. In this article, the position of internationalist domestic architecture (espoused in glossy architecture publications) is criticised, drawing also on previous research (a case study of the outcomes of a place-based planning instrument, by the author, and a joint paper on locality-based design written jointly with Trevor King). The internationalist design approach is shown not to provide culturally appropriate or technically sustainable buildings.


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