scholarly journals Biodiversity Climate Shifts: shaping data transformation and evaluation

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilian Costa ◽  
Tereza Giannini ◽  
Antonio Saraiva
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Forests ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Group Process ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Process Analysis ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Pollination Syndrome ◽  
Distribution Dynamics ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Climate Shifts

Ecosystem services provided by biodiversity are associated with supporting life on the planet. Climate change has negatively impacted biodiversity, altering the phenology and geographical distribution of species and the interaction between them. In megadiverse areas, such as tropical forests, studies of species interactions that consider all the species of flora and fauna are not feasible due to our limited knowledge of biodiversity and the necessity of extensive and costly fieldwork. Instead, Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) techniques can be used, together with other species information (e.g., pollination syndrome) as a proxy for these interactions to estimate spatial patterns of potential distribution dynamics. In this study, we modeled our process steps to obtain the estimated future climate shifts and identification of climatically stable areas over time. These areas may represent climatic refuges and future actions to increase the connectivity between them are strategies that could help mitigate potential future damage for biodiversity conservation. Our resulting evaluation data processing flow originated from our group process analysis applied to the Carajás region (Brazil) in which we identified the probable losses of nectarivorous bat species (pollinators), on the order of 66% (Costa et al. 2018); nectarivorous birds, on the order of 60% (Miranda et al. 2019); and bees, on the order of 85% (Giannini et al. 2020) until 2050. Our process, described using the Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) is represented in Fig. 1. Our group is preparing a data paper with all of our generated data and programs/libraries to be released as soon as possible.

scholarly journals Fallacies and fantasies: the theoretical underpinnings of the Coexistence Approach for palaeoclimate reconstruction

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 5727-5754 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. W. Grimm ◽  
A. J. Potts
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Statistical Framework ◽  
Plant Fossil ◽  
Plant Assemblage ◽  
Coexistence Approach ◽  
Climate Shifts ◽  
Approach Theory ◽  
Theoretical Issues

Abstract. The Coexistence Approach has been used infer palaeoclimates for many Eurasian fossil plant assemblage. However, the theory that underpins the method has never been examined in detail. Here we discuss acknowledged and implicit assumptions, and assess the statistical nature and pseudo-logic of the method. We also compare the Coexistence Approach theory with the active field of species distribution modelling. We argue that the assumptions will inevitably be violated to some degree and that the method has no means to identify and quantify these violations. The lack of a statistical framework makes the method highly vulnerable to the vagaries of statistical outliers and exotic elements. In addition, we find numerous logical inconsistencies, such as how climate shifts are quantified (the use of a "center value" of a coexistence interval) and the ability to reconstruct "extinct" climates from modern plant distributions. Given the problems that have surfaced in species distribution modelling, accurate and precise quantitative reconstructions of palaeoclimates (or even climate shifts) using the nearest-living-relative principle and rectilinear niches (the basis of the method) will not be possible. The Coexistence Approach can be summarised as an exercise that shoe-horns a plant fossil assemblages into coexistence and then naively assumes that this must be the climate. Given the theoretical issues, and methodological issues highlighted elsewhere, we suggest that the method be discontinued and that all past reconstructions be disregarded and revisited using less fallacious methods.

scholarly journals Fallacies and fantasies: the theoretical underpinnings of the Coexistence Approach for palaeoclimate reconstruction

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 611-622 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guido W. Grimm ◽  
Alastair J. Potts
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Statistical Framework ◽  
Plant Fossil ◽  
Coexistence Approach ◽  
Climate Shifts ◽  
Approach Theory ◽  
Theoretical Issues

Abstract. The Coexistence Approach has been used to infer palaeoclimates for many Eurasian fossil plant assemblages. However, the theory that underpins the method has never been examined in detail. Here we discuss acknowledged and implicit assumptions and assess the statistical nature and pseudo-logic of the method. We also compare the Coexistence Approach theory with the active field of species distribution modelling. We argue that the assumptions will inevitably be violated to some degree and that the method lacks any substantive means to identify or quantify these violations. The absence of a statistical framework makes the method highly vulnerable to the vagaries of statistical outliers and exotic elements. In addition, we find numerous logical inconsistencies, such as how climate shifts are quantified (the use of a "centre value" of a coexistence interval) and the ability to reconstruct "extinct" climates from modern plant distributions. Given the problems that have surfaced in species distribution modelling, accurate and precise quantitative reconstructions of palaeoclimates (or even climate shifts) using the nearest-living-relative principle and rectilinear niches (the basis of the method) will not be possible. The Coexistence Approach can be summarised as an exercise that shoehorns a plant fossil assemblage into coexistence and then assumes that this must be the climate. Given the theoretical issues and methodological issues highlighted elsewhere, we suggest that the method be discontinued and that all past reconstructions be disregarded and revisited using less fallacious methods. We outline six steps for (further) validation of available and future taxon-based methods and advocate developing (semi-quantitative) methods that prioritise robustness over precision.

Design and Operational Analyses of Activated Sludge Processes Using Respirometrically Calibrated Models

1992 ◽  
Vol 26 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 753-762 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. F. Rozich
Keyword(s):  
Activated Sludge ◽  
Model Calibration ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Process Analysis ◽  
Case Histories ◽  
Model Case ◽  
Operational Strategies ◽  
Analysis Methodology ◽  
Technical Basis ◽  
Activated Sludge Processes

The purpose of this paper is to present the background and examples of methodology which enable environmental engineers and scientists to analyze activated sludge processes much more effectively than is otherwise possible with conventional approaches. Good process analyses are key for devising optimal design and operational strategies. The key features to the technique presented herein are the field-proven predictability of the model and the methodology for collecting data needed for calibrating the process model. Case histories prove the predictability of the model that is associated with the process analysis approach. The advantage of the approach advocated herein is the use of respirometric techniques to calibrate the model. These methods enable the process analyst to collect the requisite data for model calibration in twenty-four hours or less. This feature enables one to use this process analysis methodology for both design and operational applications. The paper will present the technical basis for the process model and how respirometric methods are utilized to compute biokinetic constants in a manner which is consistent with kinetic theory. Case histories will be discussed that demonstrate the predictability of the modeling approach and demonstrate the utility of this tool for process analysis.

scholarly journals An Orchid in Retrograde: Climate-Driven Range Shift Patterns of Ophrys helenae in Greece

Plants ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 470
Author(s):  
Martha Charitonidou ◽  
Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis ◽  
John M. Halley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Species Response ◽  
Northwestern Greece ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
The Last Glacial

Climate change is regarded as one of the most important threats to plants. Already species around the globe are showing considerable latitudinal and altitudinal shifts. Helen’s bee orchid (Ophrys helenae), a Balkan endemic with a distribution center in northwestern Greece, is reported to be expanding east and southwards. Since this southeastern movement goes against the usual expectations, we investigated via Species Distribution Modelling, whether this pattern is consistent with projections based on the species’ response to climate change. We predicted the species’ future distribution based on three different climate models in two climate scenarios. We also explored the species’ potential distribution during the Last Interglacial and the Last Glacial Maximum. O. helenae is projected to shift mainly southeast and experience considerable area changes. The species is expected to become extinct in the core of its current distribution, but to establish a strong presence in the mid- and high-altitude areas of the Central Peloponnese, a region that could have provided shelter in previous climatic extremes.

Potential distribution of the endemic Short-tailed ground agama Calotes minor (Hardwicke & Gray, 1827) in drylands of the Indian sub-continent

2021 ◽  
pp. 132-141
Author(s):  
Ashish Kumar Jangid
Keyword(s):  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Aridity Index ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Spatial Knowledge ◽  
Western India ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Specific Species ◽  
Precise Distribution

The Short-tailed ground agama or Hardwicke’s bloodsucker Calotes minor (Hardwicke & Gray, 1827) is known to occur in the Indian subcontinent and is largely confined to arid to semiarid environments, such as hard barren desert and abandoned fields. The precise distribution of this species is largely unknown to date, with few locality records spread biogeographically across Eastern Pakistan, Central and Western India. To improve on the existing spatial knowledge on this species and assess the ability to predict species distributions for taxa with few locality records, we studied the distribution of C. minor using a species distribution modelling framework. Our study allowed us to predict the distribution range of C. minor and help define a niche for this habitat-specific species. Highly probable habitats for C. minor were arid and semi-arid dryland habitats, characterised by plains or less rugged terrain with moderately narrow temperature range, lower aridity index, moderate to low vegetation index, and wide precipitation range. Furthermore, we report four additional occurrence records of C. minor from central Rajasthan.

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