Investing in US 10-Year Yields with News Sentiment

The tonality of news reporting has been shown to have explanatory and predictive power for equity prices. Using a novel approach and data set, the authors demonstrate that the news sentiment effect also holds for US government bond duration. They construct a successful trading strategy for the US 10-year government bond yield based on news sentiment.

Significance It dropped to 332.2, a decline of 5.7% since March 10, when the forint reached its strongest level against the euro this year. While the forint has fallen steadily against the single currency over the past several years -- it has lost 18% since November 2012, with half the decline occurring since mid-2017 -- it has come under more strain since March, owing to a combination of fallout from the US-China trade war and the persistently dovish policy stance of Hungary’s Central Bank (MNB). Impacts Markets have become increasingly pessimistic about the growth prospects for the euro-area. A technical recession is increasingly probable in Germany, where the benchmark ten-year government bond yield is at a near-record low. Central Europe’s economies are decoupling from the industrial slowdown in the largest EU economy, although divergences are narrowing. Renewed hopes of a US-Chinese trade truce, including a possible roll-back of existing tariffs, are improving sentiment towards EM.


2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 243-248
Author(s):  
Intan Permanasari ◽  
Augustina Kurniasih

The purpose of this research is to analyze the effect of inflation, interest rates, the rupiah exchange rate, and the US 10-Year Treasury on the Indonesian Government Bond Yield. The study population was all yield tenors of the benchmark series Government bonds for the period 2017 to 2019. This study is an associative causality study. The research sample is Indonesian government bonds with a tenor of 10 years. Data were analyzed using multiple linear regression approach. The results show that inflation and US 10-Year Treasury have no effect on the Indonesian Government Bond Yield. Interest rates and the rupiah exchange rate have a positive and significant effect on the Indonesian Government Bond Yield.


Subject US market dynamics. Significance The flattening of the US government bond yield curve -- the process in which yields on short-dated bonds converge with, or exceed, those on long-dated debt -- is fuelling debate about monetary policy and the outlook for global growth, especially US growth given the determination of the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise rates steadily. Financial markets fear the Fed is being overly hawkish, but price distortions and technical factors appear to be driving the flattening more than economic weakness. Impacts The VIX volatility index, Wall Street’s 'fear' gauge, is signalling near-term stability. The Bank of Japan’s July policy tweaking led to the sharpest 10-year bond yield rise in two years, highlighting fears of stimulus ending. The Fed is raising rates, but China is loosening policy to boost GDP amid rising trade costs, putting downward pressure on the renminbi. Turkish borrowers owe European banks nearly 170 billion dollars, half to Spain and over 35 billion dollars to France, worrying the ECB.


2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (4) ◽  
pp. 74-97
Author(s):  
Evgenia Grigoryeva ◽  

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the determinants of Russia’s sovereign risk. The spreads on sovereign Russian credit default swaps (CDS) were used as a measure of risk. Based on the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts, the factors that influence Russian CDS were selected: the implied volatility of the rouble exchange rate, the size of foreign exchange reserves relative to GDP, and the average spread on other emerging market CDS as a proxy for global factors. In turn, the CDS of emerging market countries are determined by the volatility of their currencies, the slope of the US government bond curve, and also by the increments of the dollar index.


2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (5) ◽  
pp. 1253-1282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilie M. Hafner-Burton ◽  
Layna Mosley ◽  
Robert Galantucci

A growing number of developed country governments link good governance, including human rights, to developing countries’ access to aid, trade, and investment. We consider whether governments enforce these conditions sincerely, in response to rights violations, or whether such conditions might instead be used as a veil for protectionist policies, motivated by domestic concerns about import competition. We do so via an examination of the world’s most important unilateral trade preference program, the US Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), which includes worker rights as one criterion for program access. We argue that the two-tiered structure of the GSP privileges some domestic interests at one level, while disadvantaging them at the other. Using a new data set on all US GSP beneficiary countries and sanctioning measures from 1986 to 2013, we demonstrate that labor rights outcomes play a role in the maintenance of country-level trade benefits and that import competition does not condition the application of rights-based criteria at this level. At the same, however, the US government does not consider worker rights in the elements (at the country-product level) of the program that have the greatest material impact. The result is a situation in which the US government talks somewhat sincerely at the country level in its rights-based conditionality, but its behavior at the country-product level cheapens this talk.


2020 ◽  
Vol 52 ◽  
pp. 101147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Shixuan Wang ◽  
Mark E. Wohar

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (143) ◽  
pp. 177-183
Author(s):  
Naomi Klein

Fitting to its doctrine of preventiv war, the Bush Administration founded a bureau of reconstruction, designing reconstruction plans for countries which are still not destroyed. Reconstruction after war or after a “natural disaster” developed to a profitable branch of capitalist investment. Also the possibilities to change basic political and economic structures are high and they are widely used by the US-government and institutions like the International Monetary Fund.


Author(s):  
Ana Elizabeth Rosas

In the 1940s, curbing undocumented Mexican immigrant entry into the United States became a US government priority because of an alleged immigration surge, which was blamed for the unemployment of an estimated 252,000 US domestic agricultural laborers. Publicly committed to asserting its control of undocumented Mexican immigrant entry, the US government used Operation Wetback, a binational INS border-enforcement operation, to strike a delicate balance between satisfying US growers’ unending demands for surplus Mexican immigrant labor and responding to the jobs lost by US domestic agricultural laborers. Yet Operation Wetback would also unintentionally and unexpectedly fuel a distinctly transnational pathway to legalization, marriage, and extended family formation for some Mexican immigrants.On July 12, 1951, US president Harry S. Truman’s signing of Public Law 78 initiated such a pathway for an estimated 125,000 undocumented Mexican immigrant laborers throughout the United States. This law was an extension the Bracero Program, a labor agreement between the Mexican and US governments that authorized the temporary contracting of braceros (male Mexican contract laborers) for labor in agricultural production and railroad maintenance. It was formative to undocumented Mexican immigrant laborers’ transnational pursuit of decisively personal goals in both Mexico and the United States.Section 501 of this law, which allowed employers to sponsor certain undocumented laborers, became a transnational pathway toward formalizing extended family relationships between braceros and Mexican American women. This article seeks to begin a discussion on how Operation Wetback unwittingly inspired a distinctly transnational approach to personal extended family relationships in Mexico and the United States among individuals of Mexican descent and varying legal statuses, a social matrix that remains relatively unexplored.


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