Fuzzy Rules for Risk Assessment and Contingency Estimation within COCOMO Software Project Planning Model

2014 ◽  
pp. 88-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ekananta Manalif ◽  
Luiz Fernando Capretz ◽  
Danny Ho
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Research Data ◽  
Software Project ◽  
Planning Model ◽  
Effort Estimation ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Project Risks

Software development can be considered to be the most uncertain project when compared to other projects due to uncertainty in the customer requirements, the complexity of the process, and the intangible nature of the product. In order to increase the chance of success in managing a software project, the project manager(s) must invest more time and effort in the project planning phase, which involves such primary and integrated activities as effort estimation and risk management, because the accuracy of the effort estimation is highly dependent on the size and number of project risks in a particular software project. However, as is common practice, these two activities are often disconnected from each other and project managers have come to consider such steps to be unreliable due to their lack of accuracy. This chapter introduces the Fuzzy-ExCOM Model, which is used for software project planning and is based on fuzzy technique. It has the capability to not only integrate the effort estimation and risk assessment activities but also to provide information about the estimated effort, the project risks, and the effort contingency allowance necessary to accommodate the identified risk. A validation of this model using the project’s research data shows that this new approach is capable of improving the existing COCOMO estimation performance.

Fuzzy Rules for Risk Assessment and Contingency Estimation Within COCOMO Software Project Planning Model

2018 ◽  
pp. 771-797
Author(s):  
Ekananta Manalif ◽  
Luiz Fernando Capretz ◽  
Danny Ho
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Research Data ◽  
Software Project ◽  
Planning Model ◽  
Effort Estimation ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Project Risks

Software development can be considered to be the most uncertain project when compared to other projects due to uncertainty in the customer requirements, the complexity of the process, and the intangible nature of the product. In order to increase the chance of success in managing a software project, the project manager(s) must invest more time and effort in the project planning phase, which involves such primary and integrated activities as effort estimation and risk management, because the accuracy of the effort estimation is highly dependent on the size and number of project risks in a particular software project. However, as is common practice, these two activities are often disconnected from each other and project managers have come to consider such steps to be unreliable due to their lack of accuracy. This chapter introduces the Fuzzy-ExCOM Model, which is used for software project planning and is based on fuzzy technique. It has the capability to not only integrate the effort estimation and risk assessment activities but also to provide information about the estimated effort, the project risks, and the effort contingency allowance necessary to accommodate the identified risk. A validation of this model using the project's research data shows that this new approach is capable of improving the existing COCOMO estimation performance.

scholarly journals THE CURRENT STATE OF PROJECT RISK ASSESSMENT AND EDUCATION NEEDS IN PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matej Masár ◽  
Mária Hudáková
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Project Risk Management ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Current State ◽  
The World ◽  
Project Risks ◽  
Project Risk Assessment

Current trends show that education in the field of project risk management is a very actual topic. Long - term projects, which was realized in 2018, was mainly focused on R&D across the world. Short - term projects, was focused on innovation and improve manufacturing processes. Many projects failed because project managers did not manage project risks. Project managers have less knowledge and skills on how to effectively manage project risks, especially risks in the planning phase of projects. The main aim of this article is to analyze the current state of usage project risk assessment across the world, based on own empirical research, which was provided, by authors in 2018 and 2019 (mainly level of usage project risk management methods, experience and level of education). The research focused on analyzing the current state of project risk assessment among continents. The authors focused on the average level of use qualitative and quantitative project risk analysis by project managers, level of project risk management experience by project managers and complexity of learning in using of qualitative and quantitative project risk management methods and tools.  Some recommendation were established to educate project managers in the field of project risk management.

Methodology for Risk Assessment and Costs Associated with Risk Occurrence in E-Government Projects

2015 ◽  
pp. 349-369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neven Vrček ◽  
Petra Peharda ◽  
Dušan Munđar
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Management Quality ◽  
Government Project ◽  
Project Risks ◽  
Graphical Structure

The main purpose of this chapter is to emphasize the problem of e-government project risks and to introduce a methodology for risk assessment and calculation of costs associated with risk occurrence in e-government projects based on Bayesian networks. The proposed methodology presents a new approach to the assessment of risks and costs related to e-government project risks. As such, it facilitates the holistic decision making procedure for project managers. The application of Bayesian networks in the context of risks and risk related costs reduces the level of uncertainty in e-government projects and provides a graphical structure of risks and corresponding costs. Finally, the sensitivity analysis has also been integrated into the methodology and its results can have a significant impact on the overall project management quality.

Methodology for Risk Assessment and Costs Associated with Risk Occurrence in E-Government Projects

2015 ◽  
pp. 449-469
Author(s):  
Neven Vrček ◽  
Petra Peharda ◽  
Dušan Munđar
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Management Quality ◽  
Government Project ◽  
Project Risks ◽  
Graphical Structure

The main purpose of this chapter is to emphasize the problem of e-government project risks and to introduce a methodology for risk assessment and calculation of costs associated with risk occurrence in e-government projects based on Bayesian networks. The proposed methodology presents a new approach to the assessment of risks and costs related to e-government project risks. As such, it facilitates the holistic decision making procedure for project managers. The application of Bayesian networks in the context of risks and risk related costs reduces the level of uncertainty in e-government projects and provides a graphical structure of risks and corresponding costs. Finally, the sensitivity analysis has also been integrated into the methodology and its results can have a significant impact on the overall project management quality.

Methodology for Risk Assessment and Costs Associated with Risk Occurrence in E-Government Projects

2013 ◽  
pp. 252-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neven Vrcek ◽  
Petra Peharda ◽  
Dušan Mundar
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Management Quality ◽  
Government Project ◽  
Project Risks ◽  
Graphical Structure

The main purpose of this chapter is to emphasize the problem of e-government project risks and to introduce a methodology for risk assessment and calculation of costs associated with risk occurrence in e-government projects based on Bayesian networks. The proposed methodology presents a new approach to the assessment of risks and costs related to e-government project risks. As such, it facilitates the holistic decision making procedure for project managers. The application of Bayesian networks in the context of risks and risk related costs reduces the level of uncertainty in e-government projects and provides a graphical structure of risks and corresponding costs. Finally, the sensitivity analysis has also been integrated into the methodology and its results can have a significant impact on the overall project management quality.

Educating Project Managers to Deal With Project Risks

2018 ◽  
pp. 1606-1632
Author(s):  
Radu-Ioan Mogos ◽  
Constanta-Nicoleta Bodea ◽  
Stelian Stancu ◽  
Augustin Purnus ◽  
Maria-Iuliana Dascalu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Project Management ◽  
Education And Training ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Project Risk Management ◽  
Curriculum Management ◽  
Management Competencies ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Project Risks ◽  
And Training

During the last years, the development of the project risk management competencies became a ubiquitous objective for education and training in project management due to the increasing constraints which companies face on the implementation of their projects. Alignment to the professional standards and usage of innovative methods in designing and delivery of instruction represent common requirements that education and training providers should consider and fulfill. The authors examine the main challenges in addressing project risk management subject in the education programmes and identify how these challenges could be dealt by using curriculum management systems. In order to implement the identified improvements, the authors propose an innovative architecture for a curriculum management system, which can be adopted by those universities interested in developing competencies-based programmes in project management. Some preliminary results are presented and discussed.

Turning capital project uncertainty into positive certainty by better defining manageable risk

2011 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Gray
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Project Investment ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Project Outcomes ◽  
Management Application ◽  
Management Roles ◽  
Complex Project

We are all stakeholders in the development of better practices to address the challenges presented by the opportunities and responsibilities that exist in our industry. Navigating the path between uncertainty and positive project outcomes can hopefully help to generate informed decisions as well as a thorough consideration of all the relevant risks. Many risk management roles have, however, tended to develop into compliance-style functions. This paper tackles the inconsistency of risk management application via a new approach, encompassing three elements: taking a new look at some fundamental concepts; making subsequent adaptations to some familiar tools; and applying these ideas to oil and gas investment projects. At the conclusion of this paper, project managers, sponsors and boards should have a new appreciation for how the industry might further improve its performance in tackling uncertainty on complex project investment decisions.

scholarly journals The Assessment of Risk Management & Engineering Management Practices at Project Planning Phase on Performance of Construction Projects

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 1365-1375
Author(s):  
Shahid Iqbal ◽  
Nabeel Ehtisham ◽  
Syed Farqaleet K. Bukhari ◽  
Shahid Mahmood
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Site Selection ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Engineering Management ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Planning Stage ◽  
The World

Project Risk management is known as an important workout for the achievement of desired objectives for the construction projects. Success in construction project is quantified by attaining its enactment in terms of project quality, project cost, project time, project safety. Construction projects in Pakistan, typically in the whole world have a high risk of being pointedly late and over budget. However, a bit of schedule and cost related risks are unavoidable in any construction project around the world. It was found out that the engineers were generally nominated earlier the design phase of any project. Due to this reason maximum projects did not get the advantage from SMEs at the planning stage of the project. This study also supports that project managers who are engineers be involved in construction projects site selection, in preliminary budget and schedule development by using good Engineering Management Practices.

scholarly journals Project Risk Management of Electrical Switchboard Delivery

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 85-103
Author(s):  
Dorota Kuchta ◽  
Ewa Ptaszyńska
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Research Methods ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Project Risk Management ◽  
Computer Tool ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Work Breakdown Structure ◽  
Management Procedure ◽  
Management Procedures ◽  
Project Risks

Background. In projects of electrical switchboard delivery we can identify many risks which are usually quite severe in their consequences, because these projects are high-budget projects. Our studies indicate that there are no formalised risk management procedures in many Polish companies that realise such projects. Research aims. Therefore we propose using a traditional risk management procedure adapted for projects of electrical switchboard delivery what was verified on the example of a selected company. Methodology. We use the following research methods: analysis of the documentation relating to completed projects of electrical switchboard delivery, interviews with project managers, and literature studies. Key findings. We obtained the following results: Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), list of identified project risks, list of risk responses, computer tool for managing identified risks in projects of electrical switchboard delivery. Based on the completed studies we can state that risk management is an important element of electrical switchboard delivery and should not be ignored in companies that realise such projects.

scholarly journals Banking activity. Management by risk assessment and measurement

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vasile Gotcu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
New Products ◽  
Financial Flows ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Banking Activity ◽  
Activity Management ◽  
The Stability

Rapid innovations in financial markets and the internationalization of the financial flows have created opportunities for developing some new products and supplying a wider product and service range to the banks. Liberalization of the financial markets , the severe competition and the diversification of the offered products expose banks to new risks and provocations. This new approach confirms the fact that the banking management generally and the risk management especially represents essential concern for the security and the stability both of each bank and the entire banking<br />system.

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