Turning capital project uncertainty into positive certainty by better defining manageable risk

2011 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Gray
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Project Investment ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Project Outcomes ◽  
Management Application ◽  
Management Roles ◽  
Complex Project

We are all stakeholders in the development of better practices to address the challenges presented by the opportunities and responsibilities that exist in our industry. Navigating the path between uncertainty and positive project outcomes can hopefully help to generate informed decisions as well as a thorough consideration of all the relevant risks. Many risk management roles have, however, tended to develop into compliance-style functions. This paper tackles the inconsistency of risk management application via a new approach, encompassing three elements: taking a new look at some fundamental concepts; making subsequent adaptations to some familiar tools; and applying these ideas to oil and gas investment projects. At the conclusion of this paper, project managers, sponsors and boards should have a new appreciation for how the industry might further improve its performance in tackling uncertainty on complex project investment decisions.

Fuzzy Rules for Risk Assessment and Contingency Estimation within COCOMO Software Project Planning Model

2014 ◽  
pp. 88-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ekananta Manalif ◽  
Luiz Fernando Capretz ◽  
Danny Ho
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Research Data ◽  
Software Project ◽  
Planning Model ◽  
Effort Estimation ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Project Risks

Software development can be considered to be the most uncertain project when compared to other projects due to uncertainty in the customer requirements, the complexity of the process, and the intangible nature of the product. In order to increase the chance of success in managing a software project, the project manager(s) must invest more time and effort in the project planning phase, which involves such primary and integrated activities as effort estimation and risk management, because the accuracy of the effort estimation is highly dependent on the size and number of project risks in a particular software project. However, as is common practice, these two activities are often disconnected from each other and project managers have come to consider such steps to be unreliable due to their lack of accuracy. This chapter introduces the Fuzzy-ExCOM Model, which is used for software project planning and is based on fuzzy technique. It has the capability to not only integrate the effort estimation and risk assessment activities but also to provide information about the estimated effort, the project risks, and the effort contingency allowance necessary to accommodate the identified risk. A validation of this model using the project’s research data shows that this new approach is capable of improving the existing COCOMO estimation performance.

Fuzzy Rules for Risk Assessment and Contingency Estimation Within COCOMO Software Project Planning Model

2018 ◽  
pp. 771-797
Author(s):  
Ekananta Manalif ◽  
Luiz Fernando Capretz ◽  
Danny Ho
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Research Data ◽  
Software Project ◽  
Planning Model ◽  
Effort Estimation ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Project Risks

Software development can be considered to be the most uncertain project when compared to other projects due to uncertainty in the customer requirements, the complexity of the process, and the intangible nature of the product. In order to increase the chance of success in managing a software project, the project manager(s) must invest more time and effort in the project planning phase, which involves such primary and integrated activities as effort estimation and risk management, because the accuracy of the effort estimation is highly dependent on the size and number of project risks in a particular software project. However, as is common practice, these two activities are often disconnected from each other and project managers have come to consider such steps to be unreliable due to their lack of accuracy. This chapter introduces the Fuzzy-ExCOM Model, which is used for software project planning and is based on fuzzy technique. It has the capability to not only integrate the effort estimation and risk assessment activities but also to provide information about the estimated effort, the project risks, and the effort contingency allowance necessary to accommodate the identified risk. A validation of this model using the project's research data shows that this new approach is capable of improving the existing COCOMO estimation performance.

An Improved Risk Priority Measure for the Management of Project Risk

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen D. Unwin ◽  
Duriem Calderin ◽  
Brett C. Simpson ◽  
Casey J. Spitz ◽  
Arun Veeramany ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Quantitative Measure ◽  
Importance Measure ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Project Outcomes ◽  
Large Complex ◽  
Complex Project

Abstract Monte Carlo-based project risk models are essential tools in project risk management, particularly for large, complex projects in which it is difficult to glean intuitively the importance of individual risks to the overall project. Conventional correlation-based methods for measuring the importance of contributing risks in such models are argued here to be both statistically flawed and unintuitive in the importance metrics they produce. Drawing on and adapting methods more traditionally associated with engineering risk models, Risk Reduction Worth (RRW) is introduced as an importance measure. RRW is shown to be statistically robust and provide an easily interpretable, quantitative measure of the importance of a risk to the overall performance of a project; specifically, measuring the extent to which removal of a risk would improve confidence in project outcomes. To ensure practicality of the method, an approach is described in which RRWs can be produced for all contributing risks based on a single Monte Carlo sample. This is demonstrated through application to a large, complex project risk model from which intuitive risk importance insights provide a robust, transparent basis for the allocation of risk management resources.

scholarly journals Contract modeling of investment projects in the field of oil and gas construction

2021 ◽  
Vol 266 ◽  
pp. 06001
Author(s):  
A.S. Altemirova ◽  
I.V. Burenina
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Management System ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Optimal Contract ◽  
Preliminary Assessment ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Risk Management System

The purpose of this article is to select and justify the optimal contract model for one of the largest investment and construction projects of PJSC based on a preliminary assessment of the project under several alternative contracts. To achieve this goal, the following results were obtained: first, a classification of contracts for investment and construction projects (ICP) was developed, adapted to the specifics of the oil and gas business, second, the process steps for planning the contract model of oil and gas construction projects were formed, and third, a conclusion was made about the feasibility of using a particular contract model in terms of the project economy, its timing, the quality of decisions at each stage, and the risk management system.

Design Thinking as a Tool for the Analysis of Project Risks

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 60-77
Author(s):  
E. V. Vasilieva ◽  
T. V. Gaibova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Design Thinking ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Team Members ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
Project Risk Analysis

This paper describes the method of project risk analysis based on design thinking and explores the possibility of its application for industrial investment projects. Traditional and suggested approaches to project risk management have been compared. Several risk analysis artifacts have been added to the standard list of artifacts. An iterative procedure for the formation of risk analysis artifacts has been developed, with the purpose of integrating the risk management process into strategic and prompt decision-making during project management. A list of tools at each stage of design thinking for risk management within the framework of real investment projects has been proposed. The suggested technology helps to determine project objectives and content and adapt them in regards to possible; as well as to implement measures aimed at reducing these risks, to increase productivity of the existing risk assessment and risk management tools, to organize effective cooperation between project team members, and to promote accumulation of knowledge about the project during its development and implementation.The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Rating investment projects of user-defined duration under regular redemption schedule: A new approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (10) ◽  
pp. 2414-2432
Author(s):  
P.N. Brusov ◽  
◽  
T.V. Filatova ◽  
N.P. Orekhova ◽  
V.L. Kulik ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Approach ◽  
Investment Projects

The Northern Sea Route as a Tool of Arctic Development

2019 ◽  
pp. 21-44
Author(s):  
Ju.V. Zvorykina ◽  
K.S. Teteryatnikov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Zone ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Northern Sea Route ◽  
Important Region ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Asian Pacific ◽  
Simplified Procedure

The article is devoted to the analysis of the role of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in the socio-economic development of the Arctic zone of Russia. The authors believe that climate change, gradually leading to the melting of polar ice, opens up new opportunities for the development of Arctic resources and navigation in the seas of the Arctic Ocean. Of particular interest to the NSR are non-Arctic countries, critically dependent on the supply of foreign mineral and carbon resources, as well as on the export of their goods to Europe. Among them, China stands out, considering the NSR as the Arctic Blue Economic Corridor as part of the global Silk Road system. The NSR is intended to become an essential tool for further development of the Arctic zone of Russia. Development of port infrastructure and creation of a modern ocean and maritime fleet will accelerate the pace of socio-economic development of this strategically important region. To do this, it is necessary to adopt a federal law on special system of preferences for investors, including foreign ones, implementing their projects in the Arctic. Among such preferences there are preferential profit tax rates, reduction in Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) rates, a declarative procedure for VAT refunds, a simplified procedure for granting land plots and unchanged conditions for the implementation of investment projects. In addition, it is important to make the NSR safe and profitable both in terms of quality of service and of price for the shippers. In particular, the payment for icebreakers’ escort of vessels should be competitive and reasonable. The largest Russian private and state-owned companies should be involved into Arctic projects. It is important to synchronize the Arctic oil and gas projects with nuclear and LNG icebreakers’ construction, as well as with the launch of two logistics hubs in Murmansk and Kamchatka. In this case, year-round NSR navigation will be organized, which will ensure the high competitiveness of Russian products supplied to the Asian Pacific markets.

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