Comprehensive Methods for Dealing with Uncertainty in Assessing Sustainability Part 2

2015 ◽  
pp. 107-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Pilar de la Cruz ◽  
Alberto Castro ◽  
Alfredo del Caño ◽  
Diego Gómez ◽  
Manuel Lara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Fuzzy Arithmetic ◽  
Value Functions ◽  
Deterministic Models ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Sustainability Index ◽  
Air Conditioning Systems ◽  
Hierarchy Process

In the previous chapter, the MIVES and MIVES – Monte Carlo methods were presented. MIVES is based on requirement trees, value functions, and the analytic hierarchy process. It helps integrate environmental, social, and economic sustainability indicators in a global sustainability index. Deterministic models can cause significant problems in terms of adequately managing the sustainability objective of a project. A method not only has to estimate the potential sustainability index at the end of the project. It also has to evaluate the degree of uncertainty that may make it difficult to achieve the sustainability objective. The MIVES – Monte Carlo method employs simulation to solve this problem. This chapter presents an alternative method, based on MIVES and fuzzy arithmetic. Different defuzzification parameters are proposed. An example of potential application related to heating and air conditioning systems in residential buildings is put forward. The advantages and drawbacks of using both methods are summarized.

Comprehensive Methods for Dealing with Uncertainty in Assessing Sustainability Part 1

2015 ◽  
pp. 69-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Pilar de la Cruz ◽  
Alberto Castro ◽  
Alfredo del Caño ◽  
Diego Gómez ◽  
Manuel Lara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Plants ◽  
Sustainability Assessment ◽  
Relative Weight ◽  
Value Functions ◽  
Deterministic Models ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Technique ◽  
Project Sustainability ◽  
Objective Uncertainty ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Integrated Value Method for Sustainability Evaluation (MIVES) is a deterministic method based on requirement trees, value functions, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process. It allows integrating environmental, social, and economic sustainability indicators in a global index. The value functions make it possible to consider non-linearity in the assessment. MIVES takes into account the relative weight of the various model indicators. Deterministic models can cause significant problems in terms of adequately managing project sustainability. A method not only has to estimate the sustainability index at the end of the project. It also has to evaluate the degree of uncertainty that may make it difficult to achieve the sustainability objective. Uncertainty can affect indicators, weights, and value function shapes. This chapter presents a method for sustainability assessment, taking into account uncertainty. It is based on MIVES and the Monte Carlo simulation technique. An example of potential application is proposed, related to power plants.

scholarly journals FUZZY METHOD FOR ANALYSING UNCERTAINTY IN THE SUSTAINABLE DESIGN OF CONCRETE STRUCTURES

2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. 924-935 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfredo del CAÑO ◽  
M. Pilar de la CRUZ ◽  
Diego GÓMEZ ◽  
Miguel PÉREZ
Keyword(s):  
Concrete Structures ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Fuzzy Arithmetic ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Fuzzy Method ◽  
Sustainability Index ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Sustainability Model ◽  
High Uncertainty

The model presented here is based on fuzzy arithmetic techniques and the MIVES method, which is based, in turn, on requirement trees, value analysis and the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Even though it encompasses the approach for assessing sustainability adopted by the Spanish Structural Concrete Code (EHE), the model can also be applied to concrete structures designed according to other structural codes. The EHE model serves to estimate the Structure’s Contribution to Sustainability Index (ICES) and constitutes the first sustainability model included in a structural code. The ICES crisp model is inadequate in terms of managing the structural sustainability objective of medium and high uncertainty projects. In such cases, a method not only has to assess the potential sustainability index at the end of the project, but also the degree of uncertainty affecting compliance with the sustainability objective laid down by the client or promoter. The paper compares this model with a Monte Carlo simulation method conceived for the same purpose. The fuzzy method could be a better solution in specific cases of limited time or budget for creating the model.

scholarly journals TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY STUDY MODEL OF AGED APARTMENT RENOVATION APPLYING ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Junho Choi ◽  
Jaepil Choi
Keyword(s):  
Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Feasibility Study ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Feasibility Studies ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Technical Feasibility ◽  
Technical Aspects ◽  
The Government ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Study Unit

Residential buildings are being renovated around the world, especially apartments, their solutions are becoming increasingly important. The number of apartments in Korea that are more than 20 years old has reached 4.3 million, and the problem of aged apartments now needs to be addressed. Consequently, the government is promoting the improvement of the residential environment through renovation. In a renovation project, a feasibility study is conducted at the outset, but many apartments fail to complete the renovation process during the project. One reason is that feasibility studies focus on economics without sufficiently considering the technical aspects of the redesign. This study developed a feasibility study model that can pre-evaluate apartment renovation in terms of technology. We selected 27 criteria that affect technical feasibility, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was performed with experts to derive the relative importance of the criteria. Based on the weight of the criteria, we developed an apartment renovation technology feasibility study model. As a result of the study, unit and complex conditions were found to have a significant influence on renovation. Moreover, it was found that the technical feasibility study model can quantitatively evaluate the technical aspects of an apartment to be renovated.

Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA): A case study of Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 196-209
Author(s):  
Christian N. Madu ◽  
Benjamin C. Ozumba ◽  
Chuhua Kuei ◽  
Ifeanyi E. Madu ◽  
Valentine E. Nnadi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Disaster Preparedness ◽  
Poor Performance ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Hyogo Framework For Action ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Objective: This paper uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to rank main actions and their associated task areas outlined in the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) in the case of Nigeria. The focus is on three major challenges namely (1) stakeholder inclusiveness, (2) capacity building and communication and (3) local adaptation. Methods: The perceptions of a sample of 26 field disaster management experts on the HFA were studied and analyzed using AHP. The study found that "Disaster Preparedness" is the most important expected goal followed by "Risk Assessment and Early Warning." Results: Their priority indices are 0.258 and 0.219, respectively. "Local/City Governance" however, shows poor performance with a priority index of 0.085. Monte Carlo simulation was further applied to examine the robustness of the AHP assessments. Conclusion: The results are indicative of the perceptions of the performance levels attained and the areas that need improvement.

Management of Risks in Sustainable Supply Chain Using AHP and Monte Carlo Simulation

2018 ◽  
pp. 1633-1652
Author(s):  
Sunil Luthra ◽  
Sachin Kumar Mangla ◽  
V. G. Venkatesh ◽  
Suresh Kumar Jakhar
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Evaluation Procedure ◽  
Sustainable Supply Chain ◽  
Business Organizations ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Supply Chain Strategy ◽  
Methodical Approach ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Business organizations are facing increasingly pressure from stakeholders to incorporate sustainable initiatives in the supply chains. In supply chain management, risk deals with the ‘disturbance and disruption' in a variety of operations that consequences to undesired consequences. Sustainable supply chain (SSC) risk management is a supply chain strategy that aligns economic goals with a supply chain's ecological course of actions. In this chapter, an attempt is made to prioritize and manage the risks linked to SSC. The analysis has been done by combined Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) approach, which helps in distinguishing the priority of risks and revealing of the impacts of risk. Initially, the recognized risks are analyzed to know their priority using AHP technique. Next, the uncertainties related to the risks are explored. This is followed by a risk evaluation procedure to access the disruption impacts of these risks using MCS approach. This methodical approach helps in understanding of the probable risks and consequences to emerge in SSC.

scholarly journals Combination of SWOT Analysis, Analytic Hierarchy Process, and Monte Carlo Simulation to Identify the Strategic Positioning of Crisis Management at the Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran

2020 ◽  
pp. 93-101
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Crisis Management ◽  
External Factors ◽  
University Campus ◽  
Strategic Positioning ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Internal And External Factors ◽  
The University ◽  
Hierarchy Process

INTRODUCTION: Iran has long been recognized as one of the most accident-prone areas in the world due to its special geographical location. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to devote special attention to crisis management in organizations and the identification of related strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. METHODS: The present study aimed to identify the strategic positioning of crisis management after natural disasters at the Ferdowsi University of Mashhad as the center of excellence in the east of the country. To this end, the internal and external factors which militate against university crisis management were identified. Thereafter, the strategic positioning of this university was determined among four positions, namely offensive, defensive, adaptive, and contingency, using a combination of SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and Monte Carlo simulation, and strategies were presented. The statistical population were university facility experts and managers among whom 10 cases were selected by purposive sampling. FINDINGS: Based on the obtained results, the highest weights in different sub-criteria were as follows: compliance with the required technical and safety standards in new constructions of the university campus (strength), the absence of any specific plan for dealing with various types of crises in different buildings (weakness), the proximity of the fire station to the university campus (opportunity), and indecisiveness of organizations supervising building retrofitting, including provincial government and Roads and Urban Development Office (threat). CONCLUSION: The results of the present study demonstrated that strategic positioning can be identified by analyzing internal and external factors. Moreover, among the four strategic positions, it was found that the Ferdowsi University of Mashhad adopted an offensive crisis management strategy in 45.4% of the cases.

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