Nowcasting Capacity Utilization in Turkey

2017 ◽  
pp. 214-246
Author(s):  
Özlem Taşseven
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Production Capacity ◽  
Capacity Utilization ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Consumption Index ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Macro Variables ◽  
The Relationship

Capacity utilization in macroeconomics is always related to inflation rate and unemployment level. However, the Great Recession has taught us that there might have been other factors considered in determining and/or be determined by capacity utilization. In order to further enhance Phillips Curve relationship unconventional variables such as financial and survey variables are considered. The relationship between capacity utilization rates and several real variables such as industrial production, gross domestic product growth rate, unemployment rate, consumer expenditures, financial variables such as return on BIST 100 index, exchange rate of currency basket, interest rates, survey variables such as consumer consumption index, business tendency survey and survey of expectations is investigated using data between 2006 and 2015 for Turkey. All of the above-mentioned variables indicate the production capacity and their repercussions on other macro variables except the level of standard of living. We also highlight the repercussions of production capacity concerning welfare state.

Disparate Recoveries: Wealth, Race, and the Working Class after the Great Recession

2021 ◽  
Vol 695 (1) ◽  
pp. 173-192
Author(s):  
Fenaba R. Addo ◽  
William A. Darity
Keyword(s):  
Middle Class ◽  
Working Class ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Wealth Inequality ◽  
Net Worth ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Consumer Finances ◽  
White Working Class ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship

What does it mean to be working class in a society of extreme racial wealth inequality? Using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances, we investigate the wealth holdings of Black, Latinx, and white working-class households during the post–Great Recession (pre–COVID-19) period that spanned 2010 to 2019. We then explore the relationship between working-class and middle-class attainment using a wealth-based metric. We find that, in terms of their net worth, fewer Black working-class households benefitted from the economic recovery than white working-class households. Among white households, the working class saw the greatest increase in wealth in both absolute and relative terms. Working-class households were less likely to be middle class as defined by their wealth holdings, and Black and Latinx households were also less likely to be middle class. For Black households, racial identity is a stronger predictor of wealth attainment than occupational sector.

MODELING THE PHILLIPS CURVE IN CHINA: A NONLINEAR PERSPECTIVE

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 439-461 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lingxiang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Smooth Transition Regression ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Smooth Transition Regression Model ◽  
Economic Growth Rates ◽  
The Relationship

This paper investigates the nonlinear dynamics of the inflation–output type of Phillips curve based on a multiple-regime smooth transition regression model using data from China. The empirical results indicate significant nonlinearities in China's Phillips curve. The relationship between inflation and output can be modeled by a four-regime smooth transition regression model in which the responses of inflation to output depend on both inflation and economic growth rates. The inflation–output type Phillips curve may be positively sloped, negatively sloped, or even vertical in the short term, depending on different business cycles. Furthermore, we analyze business cycle fluctuations based on the nonlinear Phillips curve, indicating a coexisting zone of stable inflation rate and rapid growth rate.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Real Wages and Output: Evidence from Pakistan

2000 ◽  
Vol 39 (4II) ◽  
pp. 1111-1126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Afia Malik ◽  
Ather Maqsood Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Real Wage ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Labour Supply ◽  
Nominal Wage ◽  
Purchasing Power ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Relationship

Information on wage levels is essential in evaluating the living standards and conditions of work and life of the workers. Since nominal wage fails to explain the purchasing power of employees, real wage is considered as a major indicator of employees purchasing power and can be used as proxy for their level of income. Any fluctuations in the real wage rate have a significant impact on poverty and the distribution of income. When used in relation with other economic variables, for instance employment or output they are valuable indicators in the analysis of business cycles. There has been a long debate regarding the relationship between real wages and the employment (output). Despite the apparent simplicity, the relationship between real wages and output has remained deceptive both theoretically and empirically. Keynes (1936) viewed cyclical movements in employment along a stable labour demand schedule thus indicating counter cyclical real wages. His deduction is in line with sticky wages and sticky expectations, which augments models like Phillips curve. In these models real wages behaved as counter-cyclical as nominal wages are slow to adjust during recession (decrease in aggregate demand and associated slowdown in price growth). Stickiness of wages or expectations shifts the labour supply over the business cycles [Abraham and Haltiwanger (1995)]. Barro (1990) and Christiano and Eichenbaum (1992) have associated these labour supply shifts with intertemporal labour-leisure substitution. This in response to temporary changes in real interest rates (fiscal policy shocks) could yield counter-cyclical real wages. However, Long and Plosser (1983) and Kydland and Prescott (1982) while studying the real business cycle models highlight on the technology shocks which leads to pro-cyclical real wages.

scholarly journals Phillips curve in Brazil: an unobserved components approach

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 787-814 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vicente da Gama Machado ◽  
Marcelo Savino Portugal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Capacity Utilization ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Utilization Rate ◽  
Subprime Crisis ◽  
Unobserved Components ◽  
Using Data

This paper estimates reduced-form Phillips curves for Brazil with a framework of time series with unobserved components, in the spirit of Harvey (2011). However, we allow for expectations to play a key role using data from the Central Bank of Brazil's Focus survey. Besides GDP, we also use industrial capacity utilization rate and IBC-Br index, as measures of economic activity. Our findings support the view that Brazilian inflation targeting has been successful in reducing the variance of both the seasonality and level of the inflation rate, at least until the beginning of the subprime crisis. Furthermore, inflation in Brazil seems to have responded gradually less to measures of economic activity in recent years. This provides some evidence of a flattening of the Phillips curve in Brazil, a trend previously shown by recent studies for other countries.

scholarly journals THE ROLE OF INTEREST RATES AND PROVINCIAL MONETARY AGGREGATE IN MAINTAINING INFLATION IN INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 267-286
Author(s):  
Chandra Utama ◽  
Miryam B.L. Wijaya ◽  
Charvin Lim
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Method Of Moments ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Monetary Aggregate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Inflation is a regional phenomenon hence the use of provincial data might be more appropriateon explaining the relationship between monetary policy and inflation. This paper analyzes the impact of changes in provincial money supply, the policy rate, and the interbank rate on regional inflation, within the framework of Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve (HNKPC). This paper employs Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) on panel data of 32 provinces from 2005-III to 2014-IV. The estimation result shows that provincial monetary aggregate influence inflation significantly only in Sumatera. Furthermore, the policy fate affects the inflation in Sumatera and Kalimantan-Sulawesi. Using the interbank money rate, the result shows this rate also affect the inflation in most of the region except Kalimantan-Sulawesi. These findings show the price-based policy is more significant on affecting the provincial inflation compared to the provincial money supply.

scholarly journals САВРЕМЕНИ КОНЦЕПТИ ФИЛИПСОВЕ КРИВЕ И СТАБИЛИЗАЦИОНА МАКРОЕКОНОМСКА ПОЛИТИКА

TEME ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 519
Author(s):  
Владимир Михајловић ◽  
Гордана Марјановић
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Stabilization Policy ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Basic Purpose ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

The stabilization of economic activity represents the basic purpose of macroeconomic policy. In the last few years, the achievement of price stability, or the relatively low and stable inflation rate, has been imposed as the policy’s main goal, in accordance with the recommendations of the so-called New consensus macroeconomics. In line with that, the identification of variables, which determine the inflation rate and cause its changes, is crucial. From its occurrence, the relationship of the Phillips curve provided an explanation of the inflation dynamics based on the movement of different factors, depending on the variant of the curve observed. Hence, the subject of the paper is the presentation and evaluation of the contemporary concepts of the Phillips curve in the context of the application of the efficient stabilization policy. The main objective of the paper is to reconsider the concept’s validity, especially in the conditions of serious economic disorders, such as the Great Recession. The applied analysis indicates that the dominant New Keynesian concept of the Phillips curve can serve for the successful conducting of economic policy, if it is supplemented with the variables of fiscal policy and financial stability policy.

scholarly journals The Impact of E-Commerce Sales on Capacity Utilization

2021 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 499-516
Author(s):  
Xuechang Zhu ◽  
Hui Shang ◽  
Zhen Dai ◽  
Bin Liu
Keyword(s):  
Capacity Utilization ◽  
Process Innovation ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Mediated Moderation ◽  
Moderation Model ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This study aims to examine the relationship between e-commerce sales and capacity utilization in China, with process innovation being the mediator and product focus being the moderator. A mediated moderation model was developed and tested using data from 804 Chinese manufacturing firms as well as two-stage least squares regression analysis. The results reveal that the relationship between e-commerce sales and capacity utilization is negative; while process innovation mediates this relationship. Furthermore, product focus not only moderates the relationship between e-commerce sales and capacity utilization, but also moderates the relationship between process innovation and capacity utilization. These findings are useful for decision-makers when formulating e-commerce sales strategies and focusing on process innovation that will help them achieve higher capacity utilization. This paper contributes to existing research by validating process innovation as mediator and product focus as moderator between e-commerce sales and capacity utilization.

scholarly journals Personal indebtedness, community characteristics and theft crimes

Urban Studies ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 54 (10) ◽  
pp. 2395-2419 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stuart G McIntyre
Keyword(s):  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Urban Setting ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Spatial Process ◽  
Community Characteristics ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Crime Types ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Debt played a central role in the Great Recession, both in its cause and in its resolution, and once again, concern is rising about household indebtedness. This paper examines the relationship between personal indebtedness and theft crime using information on personal debt default. This paper builds on an established literature examining economic conditions and community crime rates, with an analytical framework provided by ‘the market model of crime’. Our paper is motivated from the economic, sociology and criminology literatures, and extends to a fuller consideration of the relationship between economic hardship and theft crimes in an urban setting. In particular, the sociology and criminology literature permit a much deeper understanding of the human behaviour and motivations underpinning the relationships represented in the market model. Using data available at the neighbourhood level for London, UK on county court judgements (CCJs) granted against residents in each neighbourhood as our measure of personal indebtedness, we examine the relationship between this measure and a range of community characteristics, and the observed pattern of theft crimes using spatial econometric methods. Our results confirm that theft crimes in London follow a spatial process, and that personal indebtedness is positively associated with theft crimes in London. We identify a number of interesting results, for instance that there is variation in the impact of covariates across crime types, and that the covariates which are important in explaining the pattern of each crime type are largely stable across the period considered in this analysis.1

scholarly journals Does State Ownership of Banks Matter?

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 250-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denis Davydov
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
State Ownership ◽  
Government Interventions ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Loan Growth ◽  
The Relationship

This article examines the effects of state ownership and government interventions on lending behaviour and capitalisation of banks over the period 2005–2011. Using data from the highly state-influenced Russian banking sector, it is documented that the relationship between state ownership and lending is nonlinear. While overall loan growth decreased and interest rates rose, it was found that fully state-controlled banks increased lending and charged lower interest rates during the crisis of 2008–2010. Moreover, fully state-owned and state-supported banks demonstrated counter-cyclical lending behaviour during the crisis. However, while state-owned banks were better protected against asset default, there is weak evidence to suggest that government interventions may result in increased riskiness of banks.

scholarly journals An Assessment of House Loans Cointegration with Macro Variables in Selected Euro Zone Countries

Ekonomika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 99 (2) ◽  
pp. 39-58
Author(s):  
Kazys Kupčinskas ◽  
Arvydas Paškevičius
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Macro Variables ◽  
The Relationship

This paper performs an empirical study on house loans, interest rates, unemployment, and house rent prices relationship in Germany, France, Spain and Italy from the year 2003 to 2018. We look for the cointegration and causality relationship between the house loans and macro variables with the help of the Vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality methods. We investigate whether variables with monthly data explain better the relationship and causal effects between the variables. We find a long term cointegrating relationship between the real house loans and interest rates, unemployment and house rent prices for France, Spain, and Italy, but not for Germany. On average the equilibrium in house loan development is reached from 4 to 8 years, meaning that long term equilibrium exists, but the variables reach it in a rather long time period. The ECB deposit facility rate included as an exogenous variable in four countries gained no significant power in explaining the short term changes of house loans in any of the country. We reveal a complex interaction between the bank’s credits and unemployment, interest rates, house rental prices in the paper. 

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