scholarly journals An Assessment of House Loans Cointegration with Macro Variables in Selected Euro Zone Countries

Ekonomika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 99 (2) ◽  
pp. 39-58
Author(s):  
Kazys Kupčinskas ◽  
Arvydas Paškevičius
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Macro Variables ◽  
The Relationship

This paper performs an empirical study on house loans, interest rates, unemployment, and house rent prices relationship in Germany, France, Spain and Italy from the year 2003 to 2018. We look for the cointegration and causality relationship between the house loans and macro variables with the help of the Vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality methods. We investigate whether variables with monthly data explain better the relationship and causal effects between the variables. We find a long term cointegrating relationship between the real house loans and interest rates, unemployment and house rent prices for France, Spain, and Italy, but not for Germany. On average the equilibrium in house loan development is reached from 4 to 8 years, meaning that long term equilibrium exists, but the variables reach it in a rather long time period. The ECB deposit facility rate included as an exogenous variable in four countries gained no significant power in explaining the short term changes of house loans in any of the country. We reveal a complex interaction between the bank’s credits and unemployment, interest rates, house rental prices in the paper. 

Relationship of Macroeconomics Variables in Indonesia Using Vector Error Correction Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 374-390
Author(s):  
Meilina Retno Hapsari ◽  
Suci Astutik ◽  
Loekito Adi Soehono
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

This study aims to analyze the relationship between macroeconomic variables in Indonesia, namely GDP with money supply, exchange rate of rupiah to US Dollar, exports, imports and interest rates. The background problem is to analyze the best method to influence government targets or policies on economic growth by studying the relationship of macroeconomic variables. Previous studies analyzing the relationship between macroeconomic variables in Indonesia have used multiple linear regression analysis. Using VECM analysis we can find out the short-term and long-term effects on the relationship between macroeconomic variables in Indonesia. The analysis used in this study is the Vector Error Correction Model with Maximum Likelihood estimation. Based on the result, the cointegration test found that there is a long-term relationship. Based on the VECM model (3), in the short term there is a relationship between macroeconomic variables and in the long run there is a long-term causality relationship in the GDP and export models. It is expected that the Government and the Central Bank will work together cooperatively in making policies to keep control of the money supply, exchange rate of rupiah to US Dollar and interest rates to enable to stimulate the economy.

scholarly journals ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI LIKUIDITAS BANK SYARIAH DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN METODE VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (VECM)

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 117
Author(s):  
AYIF FATHURRAHMAN ◽  
FIRSHA RUSDI
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Capital Adequacy Ratio ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the factors that affect the liquidity of Islamic banks in Indonesia. The analysis is carried out using sequential monthly data published by Bank Indonesia in the period 2010 to 2018. The variables used are internal factors (Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Return On Assets (ROA)) and external factors (SBI Inflation and Interest Rates) ) The method used in this study is the Vector Error Corection Model (VECM). Based on the results of the study show that in the short term, the variable CAR, ROA, Inflation and SBI interest rates positively and significantly affect FDR. Whereas in the long term, the CAR variable and inflation have a significant positive effect on FDR, the ROA variable negatively influences FDR. And the variable SBI interest rate does not have a significant effect on FDR.

scholarly journals Impact of Macro Economy on Financial Stability in Malaysia

SPLASH Magz ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 48-55
Author(s):  
Bambang Hadi Prabowo ◽  
◽  
Maria Garcia ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Specific Factors ◽  
Bank Specific Factors

Research studies the influence of macroeconomic factors (inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates) and bank-specific factors (credit) on Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) in Malaysia for the period 2015 to 2018. This study uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to determine the effect of variables. independent consisting of macroeconomic factors and bank-specific factors. Based on the VECM estimation results, three variables that have a positive and significant effect on long-term NPL are credit, inflation and interest rates. Meanwhile, in the short term, there are only two variables that have a positive and significant effect on NPL, namely credit and interest rates. Inflation and exchange rate variables have a negative and insignificant effect on NPL in the short term.

scholarly journals Analisis Kredit UMKM di Provinsi Aceh: Analisis Empiris Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 59
Author(s):  
Hamdani Hamdani ◽  
Ismail Ismail ◽  
Thasrif Murhadi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Aceh Province

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of regional gross domestic product, non-performing loans, and loan interest rates on credit absorption by SMEs in Aceh province in the long term. The data used is secondary data in the form of a quarter 1st quarter 1995 to third quarter 2015. The model used in this study is a model of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to find out the results of short-term estimates, and using Johansen cointegration test to determine the relationship long-term between variables. The data used in this study has been tested with Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) to determine the stationary data. Based on this study it was found that in the long term there is a cointegration relationship between the variables studied. In the short term, the variables affecting the gross regional domestic product and has a one-way relationship with SME loans while variable interest rates have a causal relationship with SME loans in Aceh province, while the NPL variable does not have a causal relationship with SME loans. Keywords: SME Loans, Gross Domestic Product, Non Performimg Loan, Interest Rates, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).

scholarly journals Free Trade: Does Myopic Policy Overlook Long-Term Gains?

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 65-88
Author(s):  
Maryiam Haroon
Keyword(s):  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Myopic Policy ◽  
The Relationship

This article analyzes the correlation between trade liberalization and welfare in Pakistan from 1986 to 2015. Using consumption expenditure as a measure of welfare, we estimate the relationship using a vector error correction model. The empirical results show that trade liberalization does not have an immediate correlation with welfare: it takes some time for liberalization policies to enhance welfare. The findings also suggest that trade liberalization can help reduce poverty, decrease inequality and increase enrollment levels in the long run. But in the short run, trade liberalization has led to higher income inequality.

scholarly journals PENGARUH EKSPOR HASIL MINYAK DAN IMPOR MINYAK BUMI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Fadila Arza ◽  
Murtala Murtala
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the effect of oil product exports and petroleum imports on the economic growth of Indonesia. This study uses secondary data. The method used to analyze the relationship between endogenous and exogenous variables is a dynamic model with the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The results in the long-term and short-term show that Oil Products Exports have a positive effect on the Economic Growth of Indonesia. In the long-term and short-term, petroleum imports negatively influence the economic growth of Indonesia.Keywords:Oil Product Exports, Crude Oil Imports, Economic Growth

scholarly journals Socially Responsible Investment And Macroeconomic Stability In South Africa: An Application Of Vector Error Correction Model

2013 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 1623 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul F. Muzindutsi ◽  
Tshediso J. Sekhampu
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Responsible Investment ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Macroeconomic Stability

<p>The study reported in this article investigated the relationship between the Social Responsible Investment (SRI) sector and macroeconomic stability in South Africa. Johansen co-integration approach and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) were employed to test the relationship between SRI Index and a set of macroeconomic stability variables (inflation, real exchange rate, interest rates and money supply). Secondary data for the period April 2004 to December 2012 was analysed. There was a long-run association between all the variables during the period under consideration. However, the inflation rate, real effective exchange rate and money supply were not significant in predicting short-run changes in the SRI Index. A significant short-run relationship between SRI Index and the difference between long term and short-term interest rates (term structure) was observed. Macroeconomic variables are significant in explaining the behavior of the South African SRI sector in the long-run.</p>

scholarly journals Short And Long Term Effects Of Tourism Gdp Performance In Malaysia

2021 ◽  
pp. 1333-1341
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Stationary Test ◽  
The Relationship

This study applies observational investigation and concentrates on two primary variables which foreign direct investment and tourism. Information from 1991 to 2019 was gathered from World Bank to focus the relationship among the variables. The tests used to decipher this result are Stationary Test, Co-integration Test, Vector Error Correction Model and Granger Causality test. First, the Stationary Test focused on the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test was measuring about the time series data’s stationary property. Next, the method used to assess the existence of the relationship between two foreign direct investment variables and tourism is the Co-integrated Test. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) includes a bug fix model that should focus on the core behavior of that model. VECM specifies a simulated model that changes simultaneously towards its long-term estimates. It shows that disequilibrium disease will join in to make it work longer. VECM similarly observed the relationship between the variables over time. Finally, the Granger Causality Test was performed to look at the causal relationship between the two variables which is the relationship between foreign direct investment and tourism

scholarly journals ANALISIS DINAMIKA KESEJAHTERAAN PETANI DI PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 222
Author(s):  
Nurisqi Amalia ◽  
Anisa Nurpita
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Considerable Proportion ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Long Term Impact

East Java province has the largest rice field in Indonesia. East Java can contribute to improving economic growth and reducing poverty. Farmers Exchange Rate (NTP) is one indicator determinant of farmers welfare. NTP is formed from a price index related to inflation, where inflation is also formed from a price change. This study aims to analyze the dynamics of farmer’s welfare in East Java Province observed through quarterly data from 2006 quarter 2 to 2015 quarter 4 with the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Method. The results of this study indicate that inflation has the largest proportion and long-term impact in affecting NTP. The interest rate is a variable that affects the NTP with a considerable proportion when compared with the GRDP. Just like inflation, credit interest rates (IR) affect NTP in the long run. Meanwhile, PDRB is the only variable affecting NTP in the short term.

scholarly journals DETERMINANT ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL SECTOR STOCK IN INDONESIA STOCKS EXCHANGE

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (5) ◽  
pp. 850-864
Author(s):  
Liza Yusmia ◽  
Abitur Asianto
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error

These research had purposed to examine related to macroeconomic variables on financial sector stock index in Indonesia Stock Exchange. This research used Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method with monthly data from financial sector stock index as the dependent variable and the GDP quarterly data, as well as monthly data on inflation, BI interest rates, exchange rates, the Fed interest rate, gold prices, oil prices,and also the S&P 500 index as independent variable with data range from January 2014 to August 2019. These results that obtained from this research were the shocks in BI interest rate variable and the exchange rate which have positive responses in the long term, while the GDP, inflation, and Fed interest rates , gold prices, oil prices, and the S&P 500 index responded negatively in the long term by the financial sector stock index. Beside that, the BI interest rate variable has the greatest contribution in changed of financials stock index.

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