The Relationship Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates

2017 ◽  
pp. 171-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oguzhan Aydemir ◽  
Banu Demirhan
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
Panel Granger Causality ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship and causality between stock prices and exchange rates has preoccupied the minds of economists, investors and policy makers for a long time. However, the relationship or the direction of causality between these two variables still remains unresolved in both theory and empirics. This study examines panel Granger causality relationship between stock price and exchange rate for selected six MENA countries (Bahrain, Lebanon, Morocco, Pakistan, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia) over the period of 2005:01 and 2013:12. Panel DOLS and FMOLS methods are used to estimate long-run coefficients. On the other hand, panel based error-correction model is used to perform causality analysis. The findings of FMOLS and DOLS methods indicate that the appreciation of local currency in Bahrain, Lebanon, Morocco, Pakistan and Qatar leads to a reduction in stock prices. Contrary, in Saudi Arabia, the appreciation of local currency increases stock prices. Panel Granger causality analysis shows that there is a unidirectional causality from exchange rate to stock prices in MENA countries.

scholarly journals The relationship between petroleum price and real exchange rate: an example of Iraq

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-17
Author(s):  
Dindar Saeed Saeed ◽  
Sadeq Taha Abdulazeez ◽  
Sarbast Kamal Rasheed ◽  
Rogash Younis Masiha ◽  
Diyar Hashim Malo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Petroleum Price ◽  
Energy Product ◽  
The World ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Relationship

Petroleum is one of the world's most important economic products. It is widely accepted that petroleum is not only an energy product, but also a financial asset. Therefore, it is important to understand the dependence of petroleum prices on economic conditions and financial markets and how they can affect the world economy. The fluctuations in world petroleum prices affect the economies of petroleum importing countries through different channels. One of the most important of these influence channels is the exchange rate. Because changes in exchange rates cause different economic problems in fragile economies. Changes in petroleum prices affect the economic performance of any country through various channels. One of the channels of influence is exchange rates. Petroleum prices affect the transfer of income from petroleum exporting countries to petroleum importing countries through trade and thus determine the exchange rate. In this study, the Relationship between Petroleum Price and Real Exchange Rate in Iraq was examined by ADF unit root test, Johansen-Juselius cointegration test and Granger causality analysis. For the analysis, the Petroleum Price and Real Exchange Rate data of Iraq were taken from the official website of the World Bank and transferred to the Eviews 10 program and necessary analyzes were made. The results of the analysis were analyzed and interpreted in tables.

scholarly journals Determining a Dynamic Relationship Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Study on Eurasia

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bekir Elmas ◽  
Ömer Esen
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Relationship

The stock price has a close relationship with some macroeconomic variables. As examples of the main macroeconomic variables can be shown that exchange rates, inflation, interest rate, growth rates. This paper empirically examined the relationship between the local stock market indexes and exchange rate (USD) in six Eurasian countries namely Turkey, Germany, France, Netherlands, Russia, France and India. The paper set out by testing existence of a long-term relationship between considered two variables using the Engle-Granger (1987), Johansen (1988, 1995) and Johansen-Juselius (1990) cointegration methods. Results of Engle- Granger cointegration test showed that there is no cointegration linkage between two variables under consideration. Furthermore, The Johansen cointegration test found that there is a long-term relationship between two variables (variables in the two countries). Under the VAR (Vector Autoregressive) and VEC (Vector Error Correction) models appllied the Granger causality test, revealed an unidirectional casual relationship between two variables in each of the six countries. In addition as regards the relationship While there is a unidirectional causal relationship running from exchange rate to stock market for four countries. However this relation is casual running from stock market to exchange rate for other two countries. According to the direction of the relationship these results that relationship between stock prices and exchange rate in four countries supports for the “Traditional Approach”. Furthermore, this relation also supports for the “Portfolio Approach” for other two countries.

scholarly journals Stock prices and economic activity nexus in OECD countries: new evidence from an asymmetric panel Granger causality test in the frequency domain

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Veli Yilanci ◽  
Onder Ozgur ◽  
Muhammed Sehid Gorus
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Domain ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Asymmetric Shocks ◽  
Panel Granger Causality

AbstractThis study investigates the stock price–economic activity nexus in 12 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) by employing monthly data over the period 1981:1–2018:3. For this purpose, the study uses Granger causality in the frequency domain in the panel setting by decomposing the symmetric and asymmetric fluctuations. This methodology determines whether the predictive power of interested variables is concentrated on quickly, moderately, or slowly fluctuating components. Our findings show that the stock prices have predictive power for future long-term economic activity in the panel setting. However, economic activity has more reliable information for stock prices for negative components. Additionally, empirical findings for asymmetric shocks are not fully consistent with those of symmetric ones. Besides, the country-specific results provide different causal linkages across members and frequencies. These findings may provide valuable information for policymakers to design proper and effective policies in OECD countries regarding the stock market and economic activity nexus.

scholarly journals Cryptocurrencies and Exchange Rates: A Relationship and Causality Analysis

Risks ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angelo Corelli
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
World Wide ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Way

The paper analyzes the relationship between the most popular cryptocurrencies and a range of selected fiat currencies, in order to identify any pattern and/or causality between the series. Cryptocurrencies are a hot topic in Finance due to their strict relationship with the Blockchain system they originate from and therefore are normally considered as part of the ongoing, world-wide financial revolution. This innovative study investigates this relationship for the first time by thoroughly investigating the data, their features, and the way they are interconnected. Results show very interesting results in terms of how concentrated the causality effect on some specific cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies is. The outcome is a clear and possibly explainable relationship between cryptocurrencies and Asian markets, while envisioning some kind of Asian effect.

MODELING THE INTERACTIONS OF STOCK PRICE AND EXCHANGE RATE IN MALAYSIA

2009 ◽  
Vol 54 (04) ◽  
pp. 605-619 ◽  
Author(s):  
MOHD TAHIR ISMAIL ◽  
ZAIDI BIN ISA
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Regime Shifts ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Stock Price Index

After the East Asian crisis in 1997, the issue of whether stock prices and exchange rates are related or not have received much attention. This is due to realization that during the crisis the countries affected saw turmoil in both their currencies and stock markets. This paper studies the non-linear interactions between stock price and exchange rate in Malaysia using a two regimes multivariate Markov switching vector autoregression (MS-VAR) model with regime shifts in both the mean and the variance. In the study, the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) and the exchange rates of Malaysia ringgit against four other countries namely the Singapore dollar, the Japanese yen, the British pound sterling and the Australian dollar between 1990 and 2005 are used. The empirical results show that all the series are not cointegrated but the MS-VAR model with two regimes manage to detect common regime shifts behavior in all the series. The estimated MS-VAR model reveals that as the stock price index falls the exchange rates depreciate and when the stock price index gains the exchange rates appreciate. In addition, the MS-VAR model fitted the data better than the linear vector autoregressive model (VAR).

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