The relationship between petroleum price and real exchange rate: an example of Iraq

Petroleum is one of the world's most important economic products. It is widely accepted that petroleum is not only an energy product, but also a financial asset. Therefore, it is important to understand the dependence of petroleum prices on economic conditions and financial markets and how they can affect the world economy. The fluctuations in world petroleum prices affect the economies of petroleum importing countries through different channels. One of the most important of these influence channels is the exchange rate. Because changes in exchange rates cause different economic problems in fragile economies. Changes in petroleum prices affect the economic performance of any country through various channels. One of the channels of influence is exchange rates. Petroleum prices affect the transfer of income from petroleum exporting countries to petroleum importing countries through trade and thus determine the exchange rate. In this study, the Relationship between Petroleum Price and Real Exchange Rate in Iraq was examined by ADF unit root test, Johansen-Juselius cointegration test and Granger causality analysis. For the analysis, the Petroleum Price and Real Exchange Rate data of Iraq were taken from the official website of the World Bank and transferred to the Eviews 10 program and necessary analyzes were made. The results of the analysis were analyzed and interpreted in tables.

How does Financial Development and Petroleum Price cause Trade Openness in Pakistan?

In the past financial development and petroleum prices have been identified as acrucial factor influencing economic growth. This provoked us to explore the way financial development and petroleum prices influence the trade openness in Pakistan. The sample of yearly data is collected from 1980 to 2016 in order to apply ARDL cointegration method. Our results reflect the presence of long term cointegration between trade openness and its factors. This suggest that with the rise in credit in private sector there is eventual impact on imports and exports whereas the international petroleum prices also impact the same by pushing the prices of goods. Hence it is recommended that hedging the oil prices and the expansion of credit in Pakistan is worthwhile in terms of trade openness.

Test for Aggregational Gaussianity (AG) in Petroleum Prices Returns

The work aims at investigating and establishing if Aggregational Gaussianity, (AG) is in the dynamics of petroleum prices. This AG aspect is the phenomenon in which the empirical distribution of log-returns tends to normality (or as the time scale over which the returns are calculated increases). In order to achieve this, the petroleum price series was tested for arch effects. In addition, tests for Aggregational Gaussianity, (AG) were carried out using qualitative (graphical) approach and inferential approach, (involving statistical inference). The study shows that the presence of arch effects does not guarantee existence of AG. It is also observed that qualitative (graphical) approach may suggest normality and hence, presence of AG, on the other hand, inferential approach (involving statistical tests) gives a better picture of the actual conclusion, of the presence (or otherwise) of AG in the data set, with a 99.97% rejection from normality by the three tests-Kolmogorov-simonorv,Shapiro-Wilks, and Anderson-darling. In the circumstance, there is no evidence to confirm a discernible presence of AG in the dynamics of petroleum prices. The non-existence of AG in the study shows the instability in the dynamics of petroleum prices, since one cannot invoke normality as an invariant property this, among other factors, make the economy unstable as it is oil- driven. However, since the highest percentage of the budget for the country is based on the petroleum sales, which as this study reveals is unstable, hence, diversification of the economy is proposed. The softwares used in the work are Eviews 10, Minitab 18, Spss 17, Easy-fit 5.6 professional, and R 3.2.2.

Reinforcement of Natural Rubber Latex Using Jute Carboxycellulose Nanofibers Extracted Using Nitro-Oxidation Method

Synthetic rubber produced from nonrenewable fossil fuel requires high energy costs and is dependent on the presumed unstable petroleum price. Natural rubber latex (NRL) is one of the major alternative sustainable rubber sources since it is derived from the plant ‘Hevea brasiliensis’. Our study focuses on integrating sustainably processed carboxycellulose nanofibers from untreated jute biomass into NRL to enhance the mechanical strength of the material for various applications. The carboxycellulose nanofibers (NOCNF) having carboxyl content of 0.94 mmol/g was prepared and integrated into its nonionic form (–COONa) for its higher dispersion in water to increase the interfacial interaction between NRL and NOCNF. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and atomic force microscopy (AFM) analyses of NOCNF showed the average dimensions of nanofibers were length (L) = 524 ± 203 nm, diameter (D) 7 ± 2 nm and thickness 2.9 nm. Furthermore, fourier transform infra-red spectrometry (FTIR) analysis of NOCNF depicted the presence of carboxyl group. However, the dynamic light scattering (DLS) measurement of NRL demonstrated an effective diameter in the range of 643 nm with polydispersity of 0.005. Tensile mechanical strengths were tested to observe the enhancement effects at various concentrations of NOCNF in the NRL. Mechanical properties of NRL/NOCNF films were determined by tensile testing, where the results showed an increasing trend of enhancement. With the increasing NOCNF concentration, the film modulus was found to increase quite substantially, but the elongation-to-break ratio decreased drastically. The presence of NOCNF changed the NRL film from elastic to brittle. However, at the NOCNF overlap concentration (0.2 wt. %), the film modulus seemed to be the highest.

ANALISIS PENAWARAN DAN PERMINTAAN BAWANG MERAH DI PROVINSI JAWA BARAT

ABSTRAKBawang merah (Allium ascalonicum L) merupakan sayuran rempah yang umum dikonsumsi olehmasyarakat di Indonesia. BPS memperkirakan bahwa kenaikan harga bawang merah merupakanpenyebab terbesar ke dua setelah kenaikan BBM pada bulan Maret 2015. Rendahnya tingkatproduktivitas bawang merah dan karakteristik produksi bawang merah yang bergantung pada musimtidak mampu mengimbangi tingkat permintaan yang cenderung konstan. Kondisi ini menyebabkankesenjangan (gap) antara pasokan (supply) dan permintaan (demand) sehingga menyebabkanfluktuasi harga antar waktu. Penelitian ini menganalisa permintaan dan penawaran bawang merah diIndonesia sehingga dapat dihasilkan rekomendasi kebijakan pengembangan bawang merah denganmelihat aspek penawaran dan permintaan. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode analisis penawarandan permintaan bawang merah yang dilakukan secara kualitatif; serta analisis proyeksi pemetaanpenawaran dan permintaan bawang merah dilakukan secara kuantitatif. Hasil penelitianmenunjukkan bahwa pola produksi bawang merah Jawa Barat sangat dipengaruhi oleh 5 kabupatensentra produksi utama (Cirebon, Bandung, Majalengka, Garut, Kuningan). Produktivitas bawangmerah relatif stagnan karena belum terjadi perubahan yang signifikan terkait dengan teknologibudidaya dan pasca panen untuk meningkatkan produktivitas. Di sisi permintaan, tingkat permintaanbawang merah cenderung mengikuti kenaikan jumlah penduduk. Ini menyebabkan Jawa Barat selaludefisit dalam ketersediaan bawang merah.Kata kunci: bawang merah, fluktuasi harga, penawaran, permintaanABSTRACTShallot (Allium ascalonicum L.) is one of the vegetables consumed by people in Indonesia. Bureau ofStatistics data shows that the increase of shallot price is the second most contributing factor afterthe rising petroleum price to the national inflation in March 2015. Low productivity and its seasonalproduction characteristics became hindrances at the production level, and thus limiting supplycapability to meet the demand. This situation has affected the supply and demand equilibrium bycreating a gap which leads to market price fluctuation. This study analyses shallot’s supply anddemand in order to formulate recommendations to the policy makers so that they are able to supportthe development of shallot by including the supply and demand elements in their policies. This studyutilizes qualitative and quantitative research methods in analyzing and mapping shallot’s supply anddemand. The results show that shallot’s national production is concentrated in 5 provinces (CentralJava, East Java, West Java, West Nusa Tenggara, and West Sumatera). The productivity is relativelylow and stagnant due to limited access to technology and good agricultural practices, in both pre-and post-harvest activities. As for the demand side, due to shallot’s inelastic characteristic, thedemand is constantly growing as the population gets higher. This condition has caused West Java tobe in a constant deficit situation for shallot.Keywords: shallot, price fluctuation, supply, demand