Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach to External Credit and Economic Growth in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 41-59
Author(s):  
Oluwasogo Sunday Adediran ◽  
Philip O. Alege
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Neoclassical Growth

The need for increasing external credit flows to boost economic activity has exposed Nigeria to the negative effects of external structural changes. Therefore, an important question of concern in this study is, how does the Nigerian economy grow when there is a decline in external credit? This study attempted to answer this question by comparing the flow of external credit to economic activities. This is a distinction from previous studies that had compared stock of external credit to economic activities. Using annual data covering 36 years for the period 1980-2016, the study adopted the neoclassical growth model and estimated the model using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The study argued that, to the extent that expenditure is credit financed, GDP should be a function of credit flow, which is new borrowing.

SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN IMPACT OF INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH TOWARDS POVERTY IN INDONESIA: ARDL APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Ahmadi Murjani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

 Poverty alleviation has become a vigorous program in the world in recent decades. In line with the efforts applied by the government in various countries to reduce poverty, some evaluations have been practised. The impacts of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, and economic growth have been commonly employed to be assessed for their impact on the poverty. Previous studies in Indonesia yielded mix results regarding the impact of such macroeconomic variables on the poverty. Different methods and time reference issue were the suspected causes. This paper aims to overcome such problem by utilising the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) equipped with the latest time of observations. This paper finds in the long-run, inflation, unemployment, and economic growth significantly influence the poverty. In the short-run, only inflation and economic growth are noted affecting poverty significantly. 

scholarly journals DO INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES FOSTER ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA?

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-122
Author(s):  
Badri Narayan Rath ◽  
Danny Hermawan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Information And Communication Technologies ◽  
Communication Technologies ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
Ict Development

This paper investigates, using annual data from 1980 to 2014, whether adoption of information and communication technologies (ICT) fosters economic growth in Indonesia. We employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag cointegration technique on an augmented neoclassical growth model. The empirical results indicate a positive effect of ICT development on economic growth in both the long-run and short-run. The other regressors, such as total factor productivity, human capital, and capital per worker, also positively affect economic growth. From a policy perspective, the Indonesian government should promote ICT development through greater investment.

On the Evolutionary Interplay Between Remittances, Financial Development, and Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
pp. 78-96
Author(s):  
Ramzi Fahrani ◽  
Azza Béjaoui
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Stable Economy ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Impact

In this chapter, the authors attempt to investigate the interaction between remittances and financial development and its impact on the economic growth over the period 1980-2016. In this respect, they apply the autoregressive distributed lag bound test (ARDL) approach on cross-country of data series from 1980 to 2016 to study the short- and long-run relationship of remittances and financial development with economic growth. The empirical results show that the direct effects of shipments on growth are significant. On the other hand, the impact of remittances on economic seems to be more significant by means of the financial development. It also shows that these shipments are more efficient in the case of a less developed informal sector, a politically stable economy, and a developed financial structure.

Globalisation and Economic Growth in India: An ARDL Approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 001946622110153
Author(s):  
Suadat Hussain Wani ◽  
M. Afzal Mir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Jel Codes ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Testing Approach

This study aims to investigate the relation between globalisation, which includes foreign direct investment (FDI), exports, imports, foreign remittances and economic growth in India. To achieve the said objective, Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach has been utilised. The study indicates that imports and FDI positively affect economic growth in India. On the other hand, exports and foreign remittances have negative and significant relationship with economic growth. This suggests that exports and foreign remittances take more time to spillover positive impact on economic performance of India. The findings suggest that FDI should be encouraged to promote exports, export-led growth and joint ventures with foreign investors in the country. JEL Codes: F30, F10, F10, F24, C22

scholarly journals Health Expenditure and Economic growth: An ARDL Approach for the Case of Iran

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 249-256 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Mehrara
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Health Expenditure ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Health Spending ◽  
Health Care Expenditures ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Oil Revenues

This paper examines the relationship between health expenditure and economic growth in Iran for the period 1970-2007, based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The study finds a cointegrating relationship among real GDP, health expenditure, capital stock, oil revenues and education, although among them, health spending explains just a small part of the economic growth. The results indicate that while health care expenditures are among the most important factors in the lowering of infant mortality, they do not make a significant marginal contribution to the economic growth in Iran. This findings call for pressing reforms and improved allocation of resources in health sector.

scholarly journals The effect of worker remittances on economic growth: An ARDL approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 434-441 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Kamran Khan ◽  
Jian-Zhou Teng ◽  
Muhammad Imran Khan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Domestic Saving ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Financial Flow ◽  
Short Run

Worker remittances are the main source of financial flow to any economy.  This study intended to scrutinize the effect of remittance inflow on Pakistan’s economy over the period 1976- 2016 by employing autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique; because this method has been recently developed and has different advantages as compared to time series methods. ARDL method was applied to scrutinize the long run and the short run effect of worker remittances on Pakistan’s economy. This study concluded that Pakistan’s economy is positively affected by remittance inflow, foreign direct investment and the gross domestic saving in the long run, while Pakistan’s economy negatively affected by inflation and consumption in the long run. Remittances received from immigrant support economic growth in Pakistan because remittances inflow is mostly utilized for investment purpose. To further improve the economic development of Pakistan’s economy, it is suggested that policy maker in Pakistan encourage and motivate migrants to send remittances through proper channels to Pakistan, so that these inflows of remittances be used in such profitable investments that help to improve economic growth.

scholarly journals Autoregressive Distributed Lag Kurs Dan Ekspor Karet Remah Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Nulhanuddin Nulhanuddin ◽  
Devi Andriyani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Crumb Rubber ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Insignificant Effect ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Approach

This study aims to determine the effect of short-term and long-term exchange rates and crumb rubber exports on the economic growth of Indonesia. The data used are secondary data for 39 years from 1980 to 2018 accessed on www.world.bank.wdi.data.bank.org, www.pertanian.go.id, www.bps.go.id, and www.bps.go.id. The data analysis method used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with the help of EViews 10 software. The results show that the economic growth is stationary at the level and exchange rate and exports of stationary crumb rubber at the first difference level and have cointegration in the long-term relationship. The test results in the short-term analysis of the exchange rate have a positive and significant effect, and exports have a positive but insignificant effect on economic growth, while in the long run, the exchange rate has a negative effect but insignificant, and exports have a positive but insignificant effect on the economic growth of Indonesia. Keywords:economic growth, exchange rates, exports and the ARDL approach.  

scholarly journals Tourism Led-Inflation: A case of Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 150 ◽  
pp. 06026
Author(s):  
M. S. Shaari ◽  
T. Salha Tunku Ahmad ◽  
R. Razali
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Potential Factor ◽  
Proactive Measures

The importance of the tourism industry has prevailed among developed and even developing countries. It has been perceived to be an important contribution to economic growth. However, in the proliferation of studies on inflation, information on the extent to which tourism industry able to influence inflation, is still sparse. Therefore, this study embarks on investigating tourism as a potential factor towards inflation. Data on consumer price index and the number of tourist arrival from 1986 until 2014 are used in the analysis. This study adopts a quantitative approach employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. Several controlled variables such as money supply, economic growth, government expenditure, and interest rate are also included. The results suggest that the tourism industry plays an important role in determining inflation in both short-and long-runs. Therefore, governments should take proactive measures in ascertaining that any expansion of the tourism industry can avert inflation.

scholarly journals Pengaruh penanaman modal dalam negeri (PMDN), penanaman modal asing (PMA), ekspor dan impor terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Provinsi Jambi

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 267-276
Author(s):  
Dian Setia Ningsih ◽  
Haryadi Haryadi ◽  
Siti Hodijah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Poverty And Inequality ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Government ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the development of PMDN, PMA, Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Jambi province and to analyze the influence of PMDN, PMA, Exports, and Imports on economic growth in Jambi province. The analysis model used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The results showed that in the short term PMDN had a significant negative effect on economic growth. PMA has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Exports have a significant positive effect on economic growth. In the long term, PMDN has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. PMA has a negative and significant effect on economic growth. The export variable has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. And imports have a positive but insignificant effect on economic growth. It is hoped that economic growth will continue to increase from year to year, so the government must play an important role in increasing economic activities that have existing potentials so that the people's income is high which also reduces poverty and inequality that occurs.

scholarly journals How Marine Tourism Promote Financial Development in Sustainable Economy: New Evidence from South Asia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liu Li ◽  
Baijun Wu ◽  
Ataul Karim Patwary
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Marine Tourism ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Economic Significance ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Marine Economy ◽  
The Government

Abstract The ocean economy and marine tourism policies are global economic concerns being looked at from a deeply holistic viewpoint. For South Asian countries, the ocean economy and marine tourism have successive socio-economic importance. The quantification of the ocean economy and marine tourism also poses some major challenges and these challenges pose limitations for policymaking by the government and other relevant agencies. The study has used the newly developed Hidden Panel Cointegration test and Nonlinear Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NPARDL) model for a relationship between economic growth and tourism is assessed. This study offers consistent and reliable results of co-integration by incorporating the findings of four approaches to co-integration. The empirical results illustrate the asymmetric relationship between ocean and marine tourism and economic growth. The findings showed that 1% increase in long term tourism economic growth is adjusted by 2.95% annually. This research paper aims to provide a policy related to South Asia's economic activities and ocean and marine tourism economic significance. Protecting local marine protected areas (MPAs) will improve the economic benefits of the ocean and the marine economy. The policy suggests that there should be a law ensuring that marine tourism is of high quality and environment friendly. This paper provides a guideline for further research with a strong emphasis on ocean-and marine-related economic development and tourism.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document