scholarly journals Modeling and Forecasting of Tourist Arrivals in Crete Using Statistical Models and Models of Computational Intelligence

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-72
Author(s):  
Stefanos K. Goumas ◽  
Stavros Kontakos ◽  
Aikaterini G. Mathheaki ◽  
Sofoklis Xristoforidis
Keyword(s):  
Travel Demand ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
The Past ◽  
Fuzzy Models ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Economic Trends ◽  
Efficient Planning ◽  
One Step

In the past few decades, tourism has clearly become one of the most prominent economic trends for many countries. For many destinations, this trend will continue to rise, and tourism will become the most dynamic and fastest growing sector of the economy. Thus, the reliable and accurate forecasting of tourism demand is necessary in making decisions for effective and efficient planning of tourism policy. The objective of this paper is the modeling and forecasting the international tourist arrivals to four prefectures of Crete in the year 2012, based on the actual tourist arrivals data over the period 1993 – 2011, using one-step-ahead forecast. In particular, this paper presented a comparative study of time series forecasts of international travel demand for the four prefectures of Crete using a variety of statistical quantitative forecasting models along with neural networks and fuzzy models.

scholarly journals Modeling and Forecasting Regional Tourism Demand Using the Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressive (BGVAR) Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
pp. 383-397 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. George Assaf ◽  
Gang Li ◽  
Haiyan Song ◽  
Mike G. Tsionas
Keyword(s):  
Regional Integration ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Regional Tourism ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Tourist Flows ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Global Vector

Increasing levels of global and regional integration have led to tourist flows between countries becoming closely linked. These links should be considered when modeling and forecasting international tourism demand within a region. This study introduces a comprehensive and accurate systematic approach to tourism demand analysis, based on a Bayesian global vector autoregressive (BGVAR) model. An empirical study of international tourist flows in nine countries in Southeast Asia demonstrates the ability of the BGVAR model to capture the spillover effects of international tourism demand in this region. The study provides clear evidence that the BGVAR model consistently outperforms three other alternative VAR model versions throughout one- to four-quarters-ahead forecasting horizons. The potential of the BGVAR model in future applications is demonstrated by its superiority in both modeling and forecasting tourism demand.

scholarly journals ЮНВТО Всемирная туристская Барометр, и статистическое приложение Обновленная информация, Декабрь 2020 года

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 1-36
Keyword(s):  
Travel Demand ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Travel ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

International tourism expected to decline over 70% in 2020, back to levels of 30 years ago International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) fell by 72% in January-October 2020 over the same period last year, curbed by slow virus containment, low traveller confidence and important restrictions on travel still in place, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The decline in the first ten months of the year represents 900 million fewer international tourist arrivals compared to the same period in 2019, and translates into a loss of US$ 935 billion in export revenues from international tourism, more than 10 times the loss in 2009 under the impact of the global economic crisis. Asia and the Pacific saw an 82% decrease in arrivals in January-October 2020. The Middle East recorded a 73% decline, while Africa saw a 69% drop this ten-month period. International arrivals in both Europe and the Americas declined by 68%. Data on international tourism expenditure continues to reflect very weak demand for outbound travel. However, some large markets such as the United States, Germany and France have shown some shy signs of recovery in the recent months. While demand for international travel remains subdued, domestic tourism continues to grow in several large markets such as China and Russia, where domestic air travel demand has mostly returned to pre-COVID levels. Based on current trends, UNWTO expects international arrivals to decline by 70% to 75% for the whole of 2020. This would mean that international tourism could have returned to levels of 30 years ago. The estimated decline in internationals tourism in 2020 is equivalent to a loss of about 1 billion arrivals and US$ 1.1 trillion in international tourism receipts. This plunge in international tourism could result in an estimated economic loss of over US$ 2 trillion in global GDP, more than 2% of the world’s GDP in 2019. Looking ahead, the announcement and the roll-out of a vaccine are expected to gradually increase consumer confidence and contribute to ease travel restrictions. UNWTO’s extended scenarios for 2021-2024 point to a rebound in international tourism by the second half of 2021. Nonetheless, a return to 2019 levels in terms of international arrivals could take 2½ to 4 years.

scholarly journals Tourists of the Future

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clare Lade ◽  
Paul Strickland ◽  
Elspeth Frew ◽  
Paul Willard ◽  
Sandra Cherro Osorio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Travel Demand ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Drivers Of Change ◽  
Mass Tourism ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
The Future ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Tourist Behaviour

Today, more and more people are travelling than ever before, with 1.5 billion international tourist arrivals recorded in 2019 and the forecasted 1.8 billion international arrivals set to be reached well before its predicted 2030 (UNWTO, 2019; 2020). Traditionally, the wealthier industrialised world has predominately been responsible for both the supply and demand of tourism. However, in recent years a gradual shift has occurred with new destinations beginning to challenge these traditional destinations. There is the expectation that 57% of all international tourist arrivals will be in emerging destinations by 2030 (UNWTO, 2017). The rise of the middle class has resulted in more of the world’s population gaining access to leisure time and the means to increased international travel. Travel experiences in the past have typically consisted of sun, sand and surf type holidays. Tourists are no longer content with these passive activities, rather seeking more experiential and engaging travel experiences instead. This suggests a change in demand from the mass tourism holidays of the 1970s and 1980s to more individualised tourist experiences (Sharpley, 2005). Drivers of change contributing to these changes in travel demand include increased globalisation along with a variety of economic, social, political, technological and environmental trends (Dwyer et al., 2008). Chapter 2 discusses the key drivers of change, along with several trends considered to have an impact on the future development of the international tourism industry. This chapter explores some of these trends further in the context of future tourist behaviour, namely smart tourism, virtual tourism, smart boredom, super sabbaticals and solo travellers.

scholarly journals Baromètre OMT du tourisme mondial et annexe statistique, Decembre 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 1-36
Keyword(s):  
Travel Demand ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Travel ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

International tourism expected to decline over 70% in 2020, back to levels of 30 years ago International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) fell by 72% in January-October 2020 over the same period last year, curbed by slow virus containment, low traveller confidence and important restrictions on travel still in place, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The decline in the first ten months of the year represents 900 million fewer international tourist arrivals compared to the same period in 2019, and translates into a loss of US$ 935 billion in export revenues from international tourism, more than 10 times the loss in 2009 under the impact of the global economic crisis. Asia and the Pacific saw an 82% decrease in arrivals in January-October 2020. The Middle East recorded a 73% decline, while Africa saw a 69% drop this ten-month period. International arrivals in both Europe and the Americas declined by 68%. Data on international tourism expenditure continues to reflect very weak demand for outbound travel. However, some large markets such as the United States, Germany and France have shown some shy signs of recovery in the recent months. While demand for international travel remains subdued, domestic tourism continues to grow in several large markets such as China and Russia, where domestic air travel demand has mostly returned to pre-COVID levels. Based on current trends, UNWTO expects international arrivals to decline by 70% to 75% for the whole of 2020. This would mean that international tourism could have returned to levels of 30 years ago. The estimated decline in internationals tourism in 2020 is equivalent to a loss of about 1 billion arrivals and US$ 1.1 trillion in international tourism receipts. This plunge in international tourism could result in an estimated economic loss of over US$ 2 trillion in global GDP, more than 2% of the world’s GDP in 2019. Looking ahead, the announcement and the roll-out of a vaccine are expected to gradually increase consumer confidence and contribute to ease travel restrictions. UNWTO’s extended scenarios for 2021-2024 point to a rebound in international tourism by the second half of 2021. Nonetheless, a return to 2019 levels in terms of international arrivals could take 2½ to 4 years.

scholarly journals UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and Statistical Annex, December 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 1-36
Keyword(s):  
Travel Demand ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Travel ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

International tourism expected to decline over 70% in 2020, back to levels of 30 years ago International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) fell by 72% in January-October 2020 over the same period last year, curbed by slow virus containment, low traveller confidence and important restrictions on travel still in place, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The decline in the first ten months of the year represents 900 million fewer international tourist arrivals compared to the same period in 2019, and translates into a loss of US$ 935 billion in export revenues from international tourism, more than 10 times the loss in 2009 under the impact of the global economic crisis. Asia and the Pacific saw an 82% decrease in arrivals in January-October 2020. The Middle East recorded a 73% decline, while Africa saw a 69% drop this ten-month period. International arrivals in both Europe and the Americas declined by 68%. Data on international tourism expenditure continues to reflect very weak demand for outbound travel. However, some large markets such as the United States, Germany and France have shown some shy signs of recovery in the recent months. While demand for international travel remains subdued, domestic tourism continues to grow in several large markets such as China and Russia, where domestic air travel demand has mostly returned to pre-COVID levels. Based on current trends, UNWTO expects international arrivals to decline by 70% to 75% for the whole of 2020. This would mean that international tourism could have returned to levels of 30 years ago. The estimated decline in internationals tourism in 2020 is equivalent to a loss of about 1 billion arrivals and US$ 1.1 trillion in international tourism receipts. This plunge in international tourism could result in an estimated economic loss of over US$ 2 trillion in global GDP, more than 2% of the world’s GDP in 2019. Looking ahead, the announcement and the roll-out of a vaccine are expected to gradually increase consumer confidence and contribute to ease travel restrictions. UNWTO’s extended scenarios for 2021-2024 point to a rebound in international tourism by the second half of 2021. Nonetheless, a return to 2019 levels in terms of international arrivals could take 2½ to 4 years

scholarly journals Barómetro OMT del Turismo Mundial y anexo estadístico, Diciembre 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 1-36
Keyword(s):  
Travel Demand ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Travel ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

International tourism expected to decline over 70% in 2020, back to levels of 30 years ago International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) fell by 72% in January-October 2020 over the same period last year, curbed by slow virus containment, low traveller confidence and important restrictions on travel still in place, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The decline in the first ten months of the year represents 900 million fewer international tourist arrivals compared to the same period in 2019, and translates into a loss of US$ 935 billion in export revenues from international tourism, more than 10 times the loss in 2009 under the impact of the global economic crisis. Asia and the Pacific saw an 82% decrease in arrivals in January-October 2020. The Middle East recorded a 73% decline, while Africa saw a 69% drop this ten-month period. International arrivals in both Europe and the Americas declined by 68%. Data on international tourism expenditure continues to reflect very weak demand for outbound travel. However, some large markets such as the United States, Germany and France have shown some shy signs of recovery in the recent months. While demand for international travel remains subdued, domestic tourism continues to grow in several large markets such as China and Russia, where domestic air travel demand has mostly returned to pre-COVID levels. Based on current trends, UNWTO expects international arrivals to decline by 70% to 75% for the whole of 2020. This would mean that international tourism could have returned to levels of 30 years ago. The estimated decline in internationals tourism in 2020 is equivalent to a loss of about 1 billion arrivals and US$ 1.1 trillion in international tourism receipts. This plunge in international tourism could result in an estimated economic loss of over US$ 2 trillion in global GDP, more than 2% of the world’s GDP in 2019. Looking ahead, the announcement and the roll-out of a vaccine are expected to gradually increase consumer confidence and contribute to ease travel restrictions. UNWTO’s extended scenarios for 2021-2024 point to a rebound in international tourism by the second half of 2021. Nonetheless, a return to 2019 levels in terms of international arrivals could take 2½ to 4 years.

Impact of risk aversion, reactance proneness and risk appraisal on travel destination risk perception

2021 ◽  
pp. 135676672098786
Author(s):  
Melvin Prince ◽  
Young Kim
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Kuala Lumpur ◽  
Risk Appraisal ◽  
Travel Destination ◽  
The Past ◽  
Subjective Estimates

The aim of the study is to investigate the motivational effects of tourist traits and risk appraisal on tourist destination risk perception. Risk appraisal involves subjective estimates of vulnerability to a threat and the threat’s consequential severity. Fear levels influence both of these elements of risk appraisal. Individual differences in reactance proneness and risk aversion are introduced into the study model to more fully account for differences in travel destination risk perceptions. The study design involves US adults, who have used their passports for international travel in the past 5 years. Travel risk assessments were studied for four destination sites: London, Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur and Istanbul. A general structural model is developed to test hypotheses about antecedents and consequents of risk appraisal and destination risk perception.

scholarly journals Impact of Coronavirus Outbreaks on Science and Society: Insights from Temporal Bibliometry of SARS and COVID-19

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 626
Author(s):  
Ramya Gupta ◽  
Abhishek Prasad ◽  
Suresh Babu ◽  
Gitanjali Yadav
Keyword(s):  
Published Data ◽  
Science And Society ◽  
Time Dimension ◽  
Scientific Publications ◽  
The Past ◽  
Economic Trends ◽  
Global Events ◽  
One Year ◽  
Personal Devices ◽  
Share Information

A global event such as the COVID-19 crisis presents new, often unexpected responses that are fascinating to investigate from both scientific and social standpoints. Despite several documented similarities, the coronavirus pandemic is clearly distinct from the 1918 flu pandemic in terms of our exponentially increased, almost instantaneous ability to access/share information, offering an unprecedented opportunity to visualise rippling effects of global events across space and time. Personal devices provide “big data” on people’s movement, the environment and economic trends, while access to the unprecedented flurry in scientific publications and media posts provides a measure of the response of the educated world to the crisis. Most bibliometric (co-authorship, co-citation, or bibliographic coupling) analyses ignore the time dimension, but COVID-19 has made it possible to perform a detailed temporal investigation into the pandemic. Here, we report a comprehensive network analysis based on more than 20,000 published documents on viral epidemics, authored by over 75,000 individuals from 140 nations in the past one year of the crisis. Unlike the 1918 flu pandemic, access to published data over the past two decades enabled a comparison of publishing trends between the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and those of the 2003 SARS epidemic to study changes in thematic foci and societal pressures dictating research over the course of a crisis.

scholarly journals Mechanisms of Primary Membranous Nephropathy

Biomolecules ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 513
Author(s):  
Yan Gu ◽  
Hui Xu ◽  
Damu Tang
Keyword(s):  
Membranous Nephropathy ◽  
Full Spectrum ◽  
The Past ◽  
Phospholipase A2 Receptor ◽  
Kidney Glomerulus ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
One Step ◽  
Stage Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage ◽  
Antibody Levels

Membranous nephropathy (MN) is an autoimmune disease of the kidney glomerulus and one of the leading causes of nephrotic syndrome. The disease exhibits heterogenous outcomes with approximately 30% of cases progressing to end-stage renal disease. The clinical management of MN has steadily advanced owing to the identification of autoantibodies to the phospholipase A2 receptor (PLA2R) in 2009 and thrombospondin domain-containing 7A (THSD7A) in 2014 on the podocyte surface. Approximately 50–80% and 3–5% of primary MN (PMN) cases are associated with either anti-PLA2R or anti-THSD7A antibodies, respectively. The presence of these autoantibodies is used for MN diagnosis; antibody levels correlate with disease severity and possess significant biomarker values in monitoring disease progression and treatment response. Importantly, both autoantibodies are causative to MN. Additionally, evidence is emerging that NELL-1 is associated with 5–10% of PMN cases that are PLA2R- and THSD7A-negative, which moves us one step closer to mapping out the full spectrum of PMN antigens. Recent developments suggest exostosin 1 (EXT1), EXT2, NELL-1, and contactin 1 (CNTN1) are associated with MN. Genetic factors and other mechanisms are in place to regulate these factors and may contribute to MN pathogenesis. This review will discuss recent developments over the past 5 years.

scholarly journals The Science of Ageism: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 646-646
Author(s):  
Jerin Lee ◽  
Natalie Shook
Keyword(s):  
Psychological Health ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Census Bureau ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
The Past ◽  
Growing Pains ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
One Step ◽  
Prejudicial Attitudes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The past two decades have been marked by a rapidly aging population in the U.S. (U.S. Census Bureau, 2018), making prejudicial attitudes toward older adults (i.e., ageism) and the impact of such attitudes more relevant. As such, ageism researchers have worked tirelessly to not only understand this normalized and insidious form of bias, but also develop efforts to combat it. This symposium will feature four ageism researchers who will showcase both the growing pains and novel contributions of ageism research, ranging from the impact of ageism on psychological health to ageism interventions to issues related to the measurement of ageism. Specifically, Dr. Ayalon will present findings regarding difficulties with the assessment of exposure to ageism and the consequences of ageism for psychological well-being. Dr. Horhota will share research demonstrating challenges associated with confronting ageism. Dr. Levy will present a model showcasing factors associated with the reduction of ageism. Ms. Lee will discuss research findings examining the construct validity of several ageism measures. These talks highlight theoretical and real-world implications associated with the complex nature of ageism, providing important directions for enriching ageism research going forward.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document