Applications of Interval Theory in the Evaluation and Decision Making of Power System Projects

2013 ◽  
Vol 385-386 ◽  
pp. 1873-1878 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Wei ◽  
Jian Huang ◽  
Feng Zhang Luo ◽  
Fang Chen ◽  
Hai Long Bao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Power System ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Economic Factor ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Binary Programming ◽  
Electric Market ◽  
Market Operation ◽  
Utility Deregulation

With the utility deregulation and market operation in China, economic factor is becoming more and more important to the evaluation and decision making of power system projects. As an important characteristic of the electric market, uncertainty is an indispensable part of project evaluation and decision making. Considering that the traditional decision making theories fail to solve the uncertainty problem entirely, this paper applies the interval theory to evaluate and make decision on projects. The interval net present value (INPV) theory is used to conduct economic evaluation, and an interval analytic hierarchy process (IAHP) and interval binary programming based method is proposed to perform project decision-making. Case study has proved the effectiveness of the proposed method.

scholarly journals Forest management decision-making using goal programming and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process approaches (case study: Hyrcanian forests of Iran)

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (No. 9) ◽  
pp. 368-379
Author(s):  
Seyedeh Soma Etemad ◽  
Soleiman Mohammadi Limaei ◽  
Leif Olsson ◽  
Rasoul Yousefpour
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Environmental Economic ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Goal Programming ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Stock Level ◽  
Hierarchy Process

The aim of this study is to determine the optimum stock level in the forest. In this research, a goal programming method was used to estimate the optimal stock level of different tree species considering environmental, economic and social issues. We consider multiple objectives in the process of decision-making to maximize carbon sequestration, net present value and labour. We used regression analysis to make a forest growth model and allometric functions for the quantification of carbon budget. Expected mean price is estimated using wood price and variable harvesting costs to determine the net present value of forest harvesting. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is applied to determine the weights of goals using questionnaires filled in by experts in order to generate the optimal stock level. According to the results of integrated goal programming approach and fuzzy analytic hierarchy processes, optimal volume for each species was calculated. The findings indicate that environmental, economic and social outcomes can be achieved in a multi-objective forestry program for the future forest management plans.

USING REAL OPTIONS IN AN INVESTMENT VALUATION AND DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (8) ◽  
pp. 43-46
Author(s):  
T. T. ADAMIYA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Traditional Assessment ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Additional Value

The current stage of global development is characterized by opportunities for investment activity, along with an instability of the economic situation and high uncertainty, dictates the need for investors and managers to make effective decisions, taking into account constantly changing conditions. An investor, while making a decision which project to accept, for the most part, uses the standard methods of financial management as a basis for forecasting and analysis. Considering fast-moving processes of technology change, as well as the conditions of market uncertainty, significant risk and agency problems, the article proposes the use of real options as an insurance (hedging) tool for investors against risks at different stages of the investment project. Risk management can be carried out through real options - the tool of flexibility in decision making. Traditional assessment methods ignore the ability to adapt internal and external changes, however management flexibility can significantly reduce risks, and therefore create additional value.

On Moderate Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process Pairwise Comparison Model With Subcriteria

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 54
Author(s):  
G. Marimuthu ◽  
G. Ramesh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Fuzzy Ahp ◽  
Pairwise Comparison ◽  
Decision Models ◽  
Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Comparison Model ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Decisions usually involve the getting the best solution, selecting the suitable experiments, most appropriate judgments, taking the quality results etc., using some techniques.  Every decision making can be considered as the choice from the set of alternatives based on a set of criteria.  The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is a multi-criteria decision making and is dealing with decision making problems through pairwise comparisons mode [10].  The weight vectors from this comparison model are obtained by using extent analysis method.  This paper concern with an alternate method of finding the weight vectors from the original fuzzy AHP decision model (moderate fuzzy AHP model), that has the same rank as obtained in original fuzzy AHP and ideal fuzzy AHP decision models.

A Soft Hierarchical Process Approach for Decision Making in A Supply Chain

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1and2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajeev Dhingra ◽  
Preetvanti Singh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Process Approach ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Conflicting Objectives ◽  
Realistic View ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Pair Wise Comparison ◽  
Supplier Selection Problem ◽  
Selection Of

Decision problems are usually complex and involve evaluation of several conflicting criteria (parameters). Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is a promising field that considers the parallel influence of all criteria and aims at helping decision makers in expressing their preferences, over a set of predefined alternatives, on the basis of criteria (parameters) that are contradictory in nature. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a useful and widespread MCDM tool for solving such type of problems, as it allows the incorporation of conflicting objectives and decision makers preferences in the decision making. The AHP utilizes the concept of pair wise comparison to find the order of criteria (parameters) and alternatives. The comparison in a pairwise manner becomes quite tedious and complex for problems having eight alternatives or more, thereby, limiting the application of AHP. This paper presents a soft hierarchical process approach based on soft set decision making which eliminates the least promising candidate alternatives and selects the optimum(potential) ones that results in the significant reduction in the number of pairwise comparisons necessary for the selection of the best alternative using AHP, giving the approach a more realistic view. A supplier selection problem is used to illustrate the proposed approach.

scholarly journals A Multi-Criteria Decision Support Concept for Selecting the Optimal Contractor

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1660 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Marović ◽  
Monika Perić ◽  
Tomaš Hanak
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Project Performance ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Construction Project Management ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Conflicting Demands ◽  
Decision Making Problem ◽  
Scientific Approach ◽  
Hierarchy Process

A way to minimize uncertainty and achieve the best possible project performance in construction project management can be achieved during the procurement process, which involves selecting an optimal contractor according to “the most economically advantageous tender.” As resources are limited, decision-makers are often pulled apart by conflicting demands coming from various stakeholders. The challenge of addressing them at the same time can be modelled as a multi-criteria decision-making problem. The aim of this paper is to show that the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) together with PROMETHEE could cope with such a problem. As a result of their synergy, a decision support concept for selecting the optimal contractor (DSC-CONT) is proposed that: (a) allows the incorporation of opposing stakeholders’ demands; (b) increases the transparency of decision-making and the consistency of the decision-making process; (c) enhances the legitimacy of the final outcome; and (d) is a scientific approach with great potential for application to similar decision-making problems where sustainable decisions are needed.

scholarly journals An Analysis of Preferences in Housing Demand by Means of a Multicriteria Methodology (AHP). A More Sustainable Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7550
Author(s):  
Roberto Cervelló-Royo ◽  
Marina Segura ◽  
Regina García-Pérez ◽  
Baldomero Segura-García del Río
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Qualitative Relationship ◽  
Key Aspects ◽  
Housing Attributes

This paper examines key aspects of the behavior of housing demand from a sustainable standpoint. Most studies have mainly focused on housing supply, looking at quantitative predictions without considering the qualitative relationship found between housing values and housing demand on a sustainable and microeconomic scale. We used a multicriteria decision methodology (analytic hierarchy process—AHP) for the analysis of preferences in demand, based on the theory of multi-attribute utility of housing, to determine the relative importance of each characteristic of housing and its influence on the decision-making process. For this purpose, we carried out the study over three main groups of stakeholders in the housing market: real estate surveyors, real estate agents, and housing buyers (the latter representing the housing demand). Results show that although there might be some slight discrepancies among the three groups in the decision-making process and the weighting of housing attributes, the three groups agree in most of the process, especially when defining the criteria and the importance that each criterion has on the process of valuation. This study provides important managerial and sustainable implications for the real estate market related to urban public policy, as we highlight which criteria are most preferred.

scholarly journals Multi-criteria decision-making model for supporting manufacturing settlements location in Africa after COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 184797902110233
Author(s):  
Stefania Bait ◽  
Serena Marino Lauria ◽  
Massimiliano M. Schiraldi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Multinational Enterprises ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Plant Performance ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Location Selection ◽  
Decision Making Model

The COVID-19 emergency is affecting manufacturing industries all over the world. Notably, it has generated several issues in the products’ supply and the global value chain in African countries. Besides this, Africa’s manufacturing value-added rate grew only 1.5 since 2018, and the foreign direct investment (FDI) from multinational enterprises (MNEs) remains very low due to high-risk factors. Most of these factors are linked to a non-optimized location selection that can adversely affect plant performance. For these reasons, supporting decision-makers in selecting the suitable country location in Africa is crucial, both for contributing to countries’ growth and companies’ performance. This research aims at presenting a comprehensive multi-criteria decision-making model (MCDM) to be used by MNEs to evaluate the best countries to develop new manufacturing settlements, highlighting the criteria that COVID-19 has impacted. Thus, it has affected countries’ performance, impacting the plant location selection choices. A combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) methods have also been used for comparative analysis. The criteria used in the proposed approach have been validated with a panel of MNEs experts.

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