Remaining Life Prediction Based on HOLT Algorithm for Civil Aero-Engine

2013 ◽  
Vol 483 ◽  
pp. 479-483
Author(s):  
Fang Bai
Keyword(s):  
Life Prediction ◽  
Residual Life ◽  
Engineering Application ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Remaining Life ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Reliability Estimate ◽  
Aero Engine ◽  
Application Requirements ◽  
Real Time Application

Under the condition of limited information on route, incomplete check, minimum maintenance and other characteristics, it will be that the concept of reliability estimate extended to real-time application of reliability. The single remaining life prediction method based on HOLT algorithm to solve dynamic use under the environment of residual life prediction problem. Case analysis results show that the method of forecasting precision can get the engineering application requirements, so it is effective and feasible.

scholarly journals Coating Life Prediction for Combustion Turbine Blades

1998 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kwai S. Chan ◽  
N. Sastry Cheruvu ◽  
Gerald R. Leverant
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Turbine Blade ◽  
Cycle Time ◽  
Life Prediction ◽  
Aluminide Coating ◽  
Turbine Blades ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Remaining Life ◽  
Degradation Mechanisms ◽  
Useful Life

A life prediction method for combustion turbine blade coatings has been developed by modeling coating degradation mechanisms including oxidation, spallation, and aluminum loss due to inward diffusion. Using this model, the influence of cycle time on coating life is predicted for GTD-111 coated with an MCrAlY, PtAl, or aluminide coating. The results are used to construct a coating life diagram that depicts failure and safe regions for the coating in a log-log plot of number of startup cycles versus cycle time. The regime where failure by oxidation, spallation, and inward diffusion dominates is identified and delineated from that dominated by oxidation and inward diffusion only. A procedure for predicting the remaining life of a coating is developed. The utility of the coating life diagram for predicting the failure and useful life of MCrAlY, aluminide, or PtAl coatings on the GTD-111 substrate is illustrated and compared against experimental data.

Performance Reliability Modeling Based on ARIMA Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 452-453 ◽  
pp. 1049-1053
Author(s):  
Fang Bai
Keyword(s):  
Life Prediction ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Remaining Life ◽  
Improved Method ◽  
Reliability Modeling ◽  
Time Performance ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Degradation Data ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Aero Engine

Performance reliability method (PRM) has great advantages on modeling with few failure data by using the performance degradation data. The purpose of this paper is to find the defects of PRM based on HOLT model, and PRM method based on ARIMA model was proposed by introducing the product fleet real-time performance reliability information to the measuring points. Finally, an example applying on the aero-engine remaining life prediction was taken to validate that PRM method based on ARIMA model can avoid variances errors derived from the formula, compared with the PRM model based on HOLT model. The relative error of the improved method has 11.765% lower. So we can draw a conclusion that this method is effective and feasible.

Residual Life Prediction of Corroded Pipeline Based on Electrochemical Model

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen-he Wang ◽  
Jun Yi ◽  
Ai-xia Ma ◽  
Shi-ming Shen ◽  
Xiao-chun Yu
Keyword(s):  
Life Prediction ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Residual Life ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Electrochemical Corrosion ◽  
Corrosion Failure ◽  
Corrosion Defects ◽  
Residual Life Prediction ◽  
Size Model ◽  
Electrochemical Model

According to the corrosion failure characteristics of buried oil and gas pipelines, electrochemical corrosion rates of the local corrosion and pitting corrosion flaws were derived by Faraday’s laws, and the limit size model of corrosion defects was established based upon ASME-B31G criteria. A new method of the residual life prediction for buried pipelines was finally developed based on the corrosion rate model and limit size model of corrosion defects, and the prediction method was validated with an example and the results showed that the method is reliable for pipelines with corroded defects.

Service fatigue life and service calendar life limits of aircraft structure: aircraft structural life envelope

2016 ◽  
Vol 120 (1233) ◽  
pp. 1746-1762 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. He ◽  
C. Li ◽  
T. Zhang ◽  
J. Liu ◽  
C. Gao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Life ◽  
Service Life ◽  
Life Prediction ◽  
Residual Life ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Life Extension ◽  
Aircraft Structure ◽  
Structural Repair ◽  
Service Life Extension ◽  
Service Environments

ABSTRACTThe service life of aircraft structure includes the fatigue life and calendar life. The Aircraft Structural Life Envelop (ASLE) is a safe and reliable life scope of aircraft structures in service. The specific steps to establish the ASLE are developed, and a residual life prediction method for aircraft structure under service environments is established by combining the ASLE with the Miner theory. Furthermore, a service life extension method of aircraft structure is proposed based on a scope extension of the ASLE, including methods based on reliability analysis and structural repair. Finally, an application example of the ASLE is presented.

Estimate the Residual Life of the Tank Corrosion

2014 ◽  
Vol 614 ◽  
pp. 573-575
Author(s):  
Xiao Yu ◽  
Qi An Lin
Keyword(s):  
Service Time ◽  
Storage Tank ◽  
Life Prediction ◽  
Residual Life ◽  
Reference Value ◽  
Remaining Life ◽  
Corrosion Depth ◽  
Corrosion Defects ◽  
Residual Life Prediction ◽  
Corrosion Data

In this paper, according to the corrosion data of sample size, using the finite polyline instead of the corrosion relation curve approximately, the calculation of the remaining life of the tank corrosion defects is simplified based on the corrosion relation curve of the storage tank corrosion depth and the service time. The proposed method of residual life prediction has a reference value for determine the tank maintenance.

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