Indicators Forecasting and Empirical Analysis of Regional Economic Development Based on Neural Network

2011 ◽  
Vol 58-60 ◽  
pp. 1154-1161
Author(s):  
Yu Lin Liu ◽  
Jun Qi Yang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Land Resource ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
Network Method ◽  
Trend Forecasting ◽  
Production Value ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Mathematical Model

Based on neural network method and by using the relevant social and economic development history index data, this paper establishes the mathematical model and neural network model that is used to predict future land resource demand, and the network is trained by using data from 1992 to 2005. Accordingly, the trend analysis model, which is to predict and analyses the indicators of population, production value, GDP, etc., is also established, and applied to predict the construction land demand from 2010 to 2020. Here, taking the trend forecasting data of the population, production value and GDP as trained network input, it calculates the future land demand. The simulation result of this method is proved to be satisfactory after comparing it with traditional statistical model forecasting results.

Application of Data Mining in the Forecasting of Railway Passenger Flow

2013 ◽  
Vol 834-836 ◽  
pp. 958-961 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan Zheng ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Peng Zhi Tang ◽  
Yan Ping Wu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Data Mining ◽  
Data Warehouse ◽  
Flow Analysis ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Data Mart ◽  
Passenger Flow ◽  
Network Method ◽  
Railway Passenger

This paper through studying the theory of data warehouse and data mining, applies these technologies to deal with the large number data in the Ticket Selling and Reserving System of Chinese Railway (TRS), uses the effective data mining to the passenger flow analysis, builds up the logical forecasting and analysis model. This paper firstly discusses the current situation and problems faced by forecasting of passenger flow, then applies the data warehouse technology to design the data mart of this subject. Next, samples and analyses this data which collecting in data mart adopting neural network method, builds data analysis model carrying out research and the experiment, finally puts forward a feasible forecast model for the passenger flow forecasting.

A novel heuristic approach for sustainable social and economic development based on green computing technology and big data

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoman Wu ◽  
Jun Liu ◽  
Yulian Peng
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Green Computing ◽  
Computing Technology ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
Bp Neural Network Model

PurposeWithout damaging and consuming natural resources, green computing technology can meet the needs of society for a long time. This paper discusses how to realize the sustainable development of social economy through the innovation of green computing technology.Design/methodology/approachFor the green computing technology and sustainable social and economic development problems, it builds back propagation (BP) neural network model and analyzes the topological structure of the network model as well as the impact of the training errors allowed by the network on its performance.FindingsBy optimizing the number of input nodes, the number of hidden nodes and the target value, the genetic algorithm (GA) can get the optimal neural network model. The simulation experiment proves that the proposed model is effective.Originality/valueIt can not only reduce the possibility of falling into local optimum, but also optimize the initial weights and thresholds of BP neural network and further improve the stability and test effect of BP neural network model.

scholarly journals Cities of over a million people on the mortality map of Russia

2019 ◽  
pp. 64-84
Author(s):  
Aleksei Shchur
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Spatial Inequality ◽  
Structural Problems ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
Inequality In Health ◽  
Spatial Hierarchy ◽  
Using Data ◽  
High Level

The problem of excess mortality in Russia has not lost its relevance. The situation is complicated by the high level of spatial inequality in health, which is usually measured at the regional level in our country. This work is one of the first attempts to look at the dynamics and extent of spatial inequality in health in Russia at the sub-regional level, by contrasting the "center/core" (in our case, represented by the largest Russian cities) with the "periphery" (the rest of the country). Cities with a population of over a million people were chosen based on the spatial hierarchy that exists in Russia, according to which the highest level of social and economic development is concentrated in the largest cities. As a rule, a higher level of development of human capital corresponds to lower mortality. Using data provided by Rosstat, we calculated life expectancy at birth for Russian cities with a population of over a million people in 1989-2016. The results fully coincided with our expectations: the polarization in the health levels between the largest Russian cities and the rest of the country has significantly increased in the last twenty-five years, which is a reflection of those centripetal processes that have been taking place in our country during this period. Russian cities with a population of over a million people are attractive destinations for both internal and external migrants, and thus acquire, among other things, a much more educated population. Since people with higher education take better care of their health, having a more educated population is undoubtedly an essential advantage of bigger cities over the periphery when it comes to the overall health level. Without solving the structural problems that restrain social and economic development outside the largest agglomerations, convergence in mortality rates between cities with a population of over a million people and the surrounding territories is hardly possible.

Russian Federalism at the Critical Stage of Development

2008 ◽  
pp. 70-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Bukhvald
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Social Processes ◽  
Self Management ◽  
Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations ◽  
Critical Stage ◽  
Municipal Reform ◽  
Stage Of Development ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
Basic Course

Transformations in the sphere of federal relations concern the most important directions of the reforming processes in the country. However, not all proposed and actually developing components of the federal reform seem well-argued and corresponding to long-term, strategic interests of the Russian statehood. The basic course of reform should meet the objective requirements of further decentralization of governing economic and social processes and the need to ensure strengthening the responsibility of RF subjects’ executive bodies and local self-management for steady social and economic development of their territories. The solution of these problems calls for a new model of federal policy of regional development, specification of some important components of the municipal reform as well as inserting certain amendments into the system of intergovernmental fiscal relations in order to stir up their stimulating function.

Waiting for a New Model of Growth: Russia’s Social and Economic Development in 2013

2014 ◽  
pp. 4-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Mau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Global Crisis ◽  
New Model ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
Economic Risks

The paper deals with Russian social and economic development in 2013 and prospects for the next year or two. The author discusses the logic and trends of the global crisis started in 2008. This is the basis for further analysis of current Russian economic performance with special emphasis on the problem of growth rates deceleration. Special attention is paid to economic risks and priorities of economic policy.

Structural Alternatives of Russia’s Social and Economic Development

2008 ◽  
pp. 71-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Shastitko ◽  
S. Afontsev ◽  
S. Plaksin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Comparative Study ◽  
Economic System ◽  
Competitive Markets ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Social And Economic Development

The article contains a general comparative study of four strategies of social and economic development: "Inertia", "Renter", "Mobilization", and "Modernization". The context for comparison is explanation of correlation between adaptive features of Russia’s contemporary economic system and particularities of the mentioned strategies with corresponding ways of managing economic development problems. The comparison is based on description of strategies essence, ways and tools to achieve results. Perspectives of achieving strategic purposes as well as expected results of implementation of each strategy are shown. Special comparative study of four strategies on the base of development of competitive markets as one of strategic aims of the Russian government is presented.

Stock Market Prediction using Data Mining Techniques

2020 ◽  
pp. 310-313
Author(s):  
Karunesh Makker ◽  
Prince Patel ◽  
Hrishikesh Roy ◽  
Sonali Borse
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Deterministic System ◽  
Vast Number ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Robust Prediction

Stock market is a very volatile in-deterministic system with vast number of factors influencing the direction of trend on varying scales and multiple layers. Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) states that the market is unbeatable. This makes predicting the uptrend or downtrend a very challenging task. This research aims to combine multiple existing techniques into a much more robust prediction model which can handle various scenarios in which investment can be beneficial. Existing techniques like sentiment analysis or neural network techniques can be too narrow in their approach and can lead to erroneous outcomes for varying scenarios. By combing both techniques, this prediction model can provide more accurate and flexible recommendations. Embedding Technical indicators will guide the investor to minimize the risk and reap better returns.

SYSTEMIC CAUSES OF THE APPEARANCE OF “COBRA EFFECT” IN THE MANAGEMENT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

2019 ◽  
Vol 86 (3) ◽  
pp. 51-61
Author(s):  
M. S. Mokiy ◽  
E. K. Borzenko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic System ◽  
Gross National Product ◽  
The Family ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Energy Consuming ◽  
The Right ◽  
Goals And Objectives ◽  
Least Energy

The article on the basis of extrapolation of system laws of management of social and economic development illustrates the system reason of the Cobra effect, that is, a situation where, despite the rather attractive goals that managers formulate, the result of the activities of subordinates is opposite to what was intended. The main problem of management is the development of a system of indicators, in which, working on the indicator, employees would change the state in the right direction. The reason for the Cobra effect is the manifestation of systemic patterns of socio-economic development. The main system regularity is the desire of the system for stability and self-preservation. This state of the system is achieved using the least energy-consuming way. It is shown that any worker, realizing system regularities, aspires to stability and self-preservation. Therefore, the employee is always forced to work for achieving the indicator. The article analyzes the manifestation of these laws at the level of enterprises and state. When managers understand these patterns explicitly or covertly, changes in the economic system are moving in the right direction. It is shown that the existing system of target indicators used as indicators to assess the effectiveness of management does not meet the goals and objectives of socio-economic development. At the meso- and macrolevel, absolute, volumetric indicators, such as gross national product and others, reduce the range of benefits to the population. The article defines the vector of change in the system of indicators for assessing the effectiveness of management at the regional and state levels, based on the fact that the key element is the family. At the same time, the targets should be indicators to assess the availability of benefits for households.

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