Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Trading Regulatory Risk for a Unified and Interconnected Electricity Market in China

2014 ◽  
Vol 1070-1072 ◽  
pp. 1486-1490
Author(s):  
Yin Fang ◽  
Zhi Qiang Zhao ◽  
Chun Cheng Gao ◽  
Yong Dai ◽  
Shu Hong Shi
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Market ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Indices ◽  
Evaluation Models

Trading regulatory risk arises prominently in the preliminary formulation of a unified and interconnected electricity market in China. Risk indices, evaluation models and methods as well as index weights are three important aspects of a comprehensive trading regulatory risk evaluation. In this paper, firstly, on the basis of the current electricity market environment in China, systematic trading regulatory risk indices used to quantify the risk level of the unified and interconnected electricity market are established. Secondly, evaluation models and a evaluation method of the trading regulatory risk are developed on the basis of synthesis of fuzzy inference and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The fuzzy set approach is employed to identify the membership degree of each index to various risk levels, while the AHP is used to acquire the weights of the proposed trading regulatory risk indices. Finally, a simulation based case study on the trading regulatory risk evaluation is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed indices and the evaluation method.

Risk evaluation of urban rainwater system waterlogging based on neural network and dynamic hydraulic model

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 5661-5671
Author(s):  
Cai Zhiming ◽  
Li Daming ◽  
Deng Lianbing
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Hydraulic Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
System Construction

With the rapid development of urban construction and the further improvement of the degree of urbanization, despite the intensification of the drainage system construction, the problem of urban waterlogging is still showing an increasingly significant trend. In this paper, the authors analyze the risk evaluation of urban rainwater system waterlogging based on neural network and dynamic hydraulic model. This article introduces the concept of risk into the study of urban waterlogging problems, combines advanced computer simulation methods to simulate different conditions of rainwater systems, and conducts urban waterlogging risk assessment. Because the phenomenon of urban waterlogging is vague, it is affected by a variety of factors and requires comprehensive evaluation. Therefore, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is very suitable for solving the risk evaluation problem of urban waterlogging. In order to improve the scientificity of drainage and waterlogging prevention planning, sponge cities should gradually establish rainwater impact assessment and waterlogging risk evaluation systems, comprehensively evaluate the current capacity of urban drainage and waterlogging prevention facilities and waterlogging risks, draw a map of urban rainwater and waterlogging risks, and determine the risk level. At the same time, delineate drainage and waterlogging prevention zones and risk management zones to provide effective technical support for the formulation of drainage and storm waterlogging prevention plans and emergency management.

scholarly journals Risk Evaluation of Bidding for Wind Farm Construction Project

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 71
Author(s):  
Yonghua Wang ◽  
Guosheng Hu ◽  
Jia-xin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Energy Company ◽  
Element Method

With the rapid development and growth of the installed capacity of wind power generation in China, more and more attention has been paid to the risk of wind farm construction projects. Based on the extension element method and the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the bidding risk of the wind farm construction project of Xintiandi energy company in Hebei province. The research shows that the extensible matter element method can provide effective support for decision makers because there are no different evaluation principles and more accurate risk evaluation.

scholarly journals Research on Safety Risk Assessment Method of Highway Bridge Construction Based on AHP-Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

2021 ◽  
Vol 248 ◽  
pp. 03020
Author(s):  
Zhuang Guofeng
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Highway Bridges ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Construction Safety ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Bridge Construction ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation Method

The quality of road and bridge engineering is directly related to the safety of the transportation industry. In the construction of highway bridges, it is particularly important to strictly control the construction quality. Combining the analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to obtain the current road bridge construction safety risk level. According to the different risk levels, effective measures should be taken to avoid unsafe accidents. On this basis, historical risk cases can be analyzed to find problems in the safety assessment of highways and bridges, and effective construction safety management and control measures can be put forward to ensure the vigorous development of my country’s highway and bridge industry.

Study on Quality Management of Logistics Equipment Systems

2013 ◽  
Vol 662 ◽  
pp. 993-998
Author(s):  
Liang Sheng Zhou ◽  
Zhen Dong Tan ◽  
Wei Guo Wu
Keyword(s):  
Fault Diagnosis ◽  
Network Analysis ◽  
Quality Management ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Set Up

The research and manufacture of the military logistics equipment systems always brings problems in quality management for its complexity and particularity. To solve these problems, a analysis on equipment quality management is conducted. A comprehensive study on reliability, fault diagnosis, and risk analysis models are also performed. The reliability analysis of the system is fulfilled using a method of combined fuzzy inference and network analysis. This method solves the limitations of the traditional network analysis method, of which the result is defined for every failure mode. The abnormality of parameters corresponds to faults in the system, which can be used to establish a knowledge database and a fault diagnosis expert system. A quantitative risk assessment model is set up using a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and an incident loss comprehensive evaluation theory. Finally, the above method and model are examined for new trailer mounted equipment. The results validate the proposed method

scholarly journals Key Factors Identification and Risk Assessment for the Stability of Deep Surrounding Rock in Coal Roadway

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (15) ◽  
pp. 2802 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongmei Huang ◽  
Weijun Li ◽  
Xikun Chang ◽  
Yunliang Tan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Mining Area ◽  
Surrounding Rock ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Affecting Factors ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
The Stability

In order to evaluate the stability of deep surrounding rock, all of the affecting factors should be theoretically identified. However, some factors have slight impacts on the stability of deep surrounding rock compared with others. To conduct an effective risk assessment, key factors should be first extracted. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey relation analysis (GRA) methods are integrated to determine the key factors. First, the AHP method is applied to sort the factors by calculating the weights of them. Seven out of fifteen factors are extracted as the key factors, which account for 80% of the weights. Further, the GCA method is used to validate the effects of these key factors by analyzing the correlation between the performance of each factor and that of the reference. Considering the influence of these key factors and experts’ judgements, the multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is adopted to obtain the risk level of the deep surrounding rock stability. Finally, the risk assessment of the deep surrounding rock in the E-Zhuang coal mine of Chinese Xinwen Mining Area illustrates the operability of the proposed method.

Research on Project Risk Management of Power Engineering Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

2013 ◽  
Vol 415 ◽  
pp. 287-293
Author(s):  
Li Xin Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Electric Power ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Power Engineering ◽  
Engineering Project ◽  
Electric Power Engineering

The electric power engineering project has many characteristics like large scale, long construction period, complex technology, many units involved and so on. In order to avoid risk and improve the risk management efficiency of electric power engineering project, this article established a risk evaluation index system from the perspective of environmental risk, economic risk, technical risk, management risk, and market risk. According to the characteristics of the risk evaluation indicators, it built a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and took a power construction projects as an example to analyze the application of the model.

scholarly journals Construction and Analysis of Green Investment Risk Evaluation Index System Based on Information Entropy Fuzzy Hierarchical Analysis Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Yuqi Huang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Index System ◽  
Hierarchical Analysis ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Green Finance ◽  
Green Investment ◽  
Operation Risk

This paper adopts the information entropy fuzzy hierarchical analysis model to conduct an in-depth study and analysis of the green investment risk evaluation system and to process and analyze its indicators. The entropy method-fuzzy hierarchical analysis is used to evaluate the green financial capital operation risk. Firstly, I point out the research trends and shortcomings, define the concepts of fund operation, operation risk, risk evaluation, and green finance, and elaborate the relevant basic theories to lay the theoretical foundation for the later research; secondly, I identify the external and internal fund operation risks by describing the development plan, overall operation, and specific operation plan of green finance; then, according to the existing fund operation risks, I integrate commercial banks’ risk. Then, based on the existing fund operation risks, I integrate the risk types of commercial banks, combine the characteristics of green finance business, design the green finance fund operation risk evaluation index system, initially determine the index weights through hierarchical analysis method, introduce the entropy value method to improve the index weights, and use the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to obtain the final evaluation results: in the process of green finance fund operation, internal risk is the most important risk, among which credit risk and financial innovation risk have the most significant impact; external risk is the second most important risk, among which economic risk and political risk are the most important. External risks are the second most important risks, among which economic risks and political risks are more obvious. The risks are judged from single-factor aspects, and the scoring values are used to determine the higher possibility of schedule risks caused by human factors, and finally, the schedule risk level of the reservoir project is determined to be medium through a comprehensive evaluation. The reasonableness of the calculation results shows that the entropy theory and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are still applicable to the assessment of green investment risks.

Risk Assessment of Reservoir by Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method Based on Information Entropy

2013 ◽  
Vol 438-439 ◽  
pp. 1612-1618
Author(s):  
Yong Jia Song ◽  
Cong Cong Jin ◽  
Xian Cai Zhang ◽  
Jing Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Information Entropy ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Entropy Weight ◽  
Weighting Method

This paper proposes a new risk assessment model on account of the fuzziness and uncertainty of risk factors in the reservoir after earthquake. The paper adopts methods of information entropy and fuzzy mathematics to assess risk level of the model. After analyzing the statistical data of earthquake-damaged reservoirs, we present comprehensive weight composed of importance and improved entropy weight. Base on comprehensive weight, we can adopt membership function to establish single factor evaluation of the model. Moreover, we combine fuzzy weighting method to assess risk level of a reservoir after earthquake. The result shows that risk level of the reservoir is high-risk. The case study verifies the practicability and rationality of the risk assessment method. Therefore, the method could be applied in the emergency rescue and reinforcement for reservoir after earthquake.

Assessments on Fire and Explosion of Petrochemical Wharf Storage Tank Area Using DOW Method and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 638-640 ◽  
pp. 1986-1992 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shi Tao Peng ◽  
Yi Sun ◽  
Ran Zhou ◽  
Xiao Li Wang ◽  
Wen Ling Guan
Keyword(s):  
Storage Tank ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Weight Vector ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Entropy Weight ◽  
Fire And Explosion

Based on the features of fire and explosion accidents in petrochemical wharf storage tank area, the DOW method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were applied to evaluate risk of fire and explosion. First of all, DOW method was employed to evaluate the hazard of fire and explosion of petrochemical wharf storage tank area preliminarily and risk indexes of various tanks were obtained. Then, 5 first-level and 24 second-level indexes were identified by the fuzzy mathematics, in which the entropy weight method was introduced to determine weight vector of arrangement analysis, and applied to an actual risk evaluation for a petrochemical wharf storage tank area to determine fuzzy sets. On the basis of the weighted average method, the risk level is medium. Arranges the second-level indexes, and the main factors affecting the accident were concluded,including the violation rate of labor discipline, characteristics of hazardous materials, fire facilities, safety checks, operation of the security emergency response system and so on.

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