Enhancement of a Fault Measure for AMSs Using Probabilistic Timed Automata

2011 ◽  
Vol 317-319 ◽  
pp. 681-684
Author(s):  
Yi Sheng Huang ◽  
Ho Shan Chiang
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Working Conditions ◽  
Timed Automata ◽  
Probabilistic Automata ◽  
Discrete Probability ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Reasoning Strategy ◽  
Real Value ◽  
Target States ◽  
Probabilistic Timed Automata

A novel approach for probabilistic timed structure that is based on combining the formalisms of timed automata and probabilistic automata representation of the system is proposed. Due to their real-valued clocks can measure the passage of time and transitions can be probabilistic such that it can be expressed as a discrete probability distribution on the set of target states. The usage of clock variables and the specification of state space are illustrated with real value time applications. The transitions between states are probabilistic by events which describe either the occurrence of faults or normal working conditions. Additionally, the passage of discrete time and transitions can be probabilistic by mean of the theory of expectation sets to obtain a unified measure reasoning strategy.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Timed Automata with Clock-Dependent Probabilities

2021 ◽  
Vol 178 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 101-138
Author(s):  
Jeremy Sproston
Keyword(s):  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Timed Automata ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Maximum Probability ◽  
Discrete Probability ◽  
Positive Side ◽  
Minimum Probability ◽  
Discrete Probability Distributions ◽  
Probabilistic Timed Automata

Probabilistic timed automata are classical timed automata extended with discrete probability distributions over edges. We introduce clock-dependent probabilistic timed automata, a variant of probabilistic timed automata in which transition probabilities can depend linearly on clock values. Clock-dependent probabilistic timed automata allow the modelling of a continuous relationship between time passage and the likelihood of system events. We show that the problem of deciding whether the maximum probability of reaching a certain location is above a threshold is undecidable for clock-dependent probabilistic timed automata. On the positive side, we show that the maximum and minimum probability of reaching a certain location in clock-dependent probabilistic timed automata can be approximated using a region-graph-based approach.

scholarly journals The impact of inclusive business on ethical values & internal control quality: an accounting perspective

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 106-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamer El Nashar
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Internal Control ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Ethical Values ◽  
Discrete Probability ◽  
Control Quality ◽  
Inclusive Business ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Business Approach ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of inclusive business on the internal ethical values and the internal control quality while conceiving the accounting perspective. I construct the hypothesis for this paper based on the potential impact on the organizations’ awareness to be directed to the inclusive business approach that will significantly impact the culture of the organizations then the ethical values and the internal control quality. I use the approach of the expected value and variance of random variable test in order to analyze the potential impact of inclusive business. I support the examination by discrete probability distribution and continuous probability distribution. I find a probability of 85.5% to have a significant potential impact of the inclusive business by 100% score on internal ethical values and internal control quality. And to help contribute to sustainability growth, reduce poverty and improve organizational culture and learning.

Risk Planning with Discrete Distribution Analysis Applied to Petroleum Spills

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 61-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roy L. Nersesian ◽  
Kenneth David Strang
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Discrete Distribution ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Distribution Analysis ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Discrete Probability ◽  
Nonparametric Statistical ◽  
Spreadsheet Software

This study discussed the theoretical literature related to developing and probability distributions for estimating uncertainty. A theoretically selected ten-year empirical sample was collected and evaluated for the Albany NY area (N=942). A discrete probability distribution model was developed and applied for part of the sample, to illustrate the likelihood of petroleum spills by industry and day of week. The benefit of this paper for the community of practice was to demonstrate how to select, develop, test and apply a probability distribution to analyze the patterns in disaster events, using inferential parametric and nonparametric statistical techniques. The method, not the model, was intended to be generalized to other researchers and populations. An interesting side benefit from this study was that it revealed significant findings about where and when most of the human-attributed petroleum leaks had occurred in the Albany NY area over the last ten years (ending in 2013). The researchers demonstrated how to develop and apply distribution models in low cost spreadsheet software (Excel).

International support networks and the calculus of uprising

2020 ◽  
Vol 57 (5) ◽  
pp. 632-647
Author(s):  
Jaime A Jackson ◽  
Belgin San-Akca ◽  
Zeev Maoz
Keyword(s):  
Support Networks ◽  
External Support ◽  
Normative Values ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Strategic Factors ◽  
Target States ◽  
Cultural Affinity ◽  
Opposition Group ◽  
Analyze Data

How does the anticipation of external support for both opposition groups and governments affect the likelihood and form (violent vs. nonviolent) of uprising within states? We develop a novel approach to address these issues, building on a network perspective. Our model suggests that both opposition groups and governments’ strategies are affected by an anticipation of the degree and nature of expected support by external parties (states and non-state actors). Using a set of indicators – including cultural affinity, strategic factors, and normative values – we develop a unique measure of anticipated support based on the potential support networks of target states and their opposition in order to evaluate our hypotheses. We argue that the anticipated balance of support for opposition and governments affects: (a) the likelihood of uprising and (b) the principal – violent or nonviolent – strategy used by the opposition group. We analyze data on violent and nonviolent civil conflicts over the period 1946–2010. We find that when the balance of anticipated support favors the opposition over their target government, the onset of an uprising is more likely. Specifically, the type of anticipated support has implications for whether a violent or nonviolent uprising occurs. These findings provide new insights into the role external support can play even before conflict occurs.

Tweaking the Odds in Probabilistic Timed Automata

2021 ◽  
pp. 39-58
Author(s):  
Arnd Hartmanns ◽  
Joost-Pieter Katoen ◽  
Bram Kohlen ◽  
Jip Spel
Keyword(s):  
Timed Automata ◽  
Probabilistic Timed Automata

ON THE MODELING OF MIGRATION PHENOMENA ON SMALL NETWORKS

2013 ◽  
Vol 23 (03) ◽  
pp. 541-563 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. KNOPOFF
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Existence And Uniqueness ◽  
Nonlinear Ordinary Differential Equations ◽  
Discrete Probability ◽  
Welfare Policies ◽  
Social State ◽  
Active Particles ◽  
The Social ◽  
Scalar Variable ◽  
Uniqueness Of The Solution

This paper deals with the modeling of migration phenomena in a small network of nations, with the aim of investigating the influence that the wealth and the welfare policies have on this phenomena. The modeling approach is based on the kinetic theory of active particles, while individuals over the network are distinguished by a scalar variable (the activity) which expresses their social state. The dynamics is induced both by the communication of individuals over the network and by the welfare policy within each nation, which is expressed in terms of competitive and altruistic interactions. The evolution of the discrete probability distribution over the social state is described by a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The existence and uniqueness of the solution is discussed and some specific case-studies are proposed in order to carry out simulations and to investigate the emerging behaviors.

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