scholarly journals Abbreviated National Early Warning Score predicts the need for hospital admission and in-hospital mortality in elderly patients

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Toshiya Mitsunaga ◽  
Masahiko Hujita ◽  
Izumu Hasegawa ◽  
Kei Otani ◽  
Kenji Okuno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Roc Analysis ◽  
Pressure Pulse ◽  
Vital Signs ◽  
Early Warning Score ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Peripheral Oxygen Saturation ◽  
National Early Warning Score

The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of the Abbreviated National Early Warning Score (aNEWS) for predicting admissions and in-hospital mortality in elderly patients present to Emergency Department (ED). This retrospective, single-centred observational study was carried out in the ED of Minamitama Hospital, in Tokyo, Japan from 1 April 2018 to 30 April 2018. All of the patients aged 65 and older were included in this study. The aNEWS is based on six common physiological vital signs, including peripheral oxygen saturation, the presence of inhaled oxygen parameters, body temperature, systolic blood pressure, pulse rate, and the Alert, responds to Voice, responds to Pain, Unresponsive score. The scores range from 0 and 3 for each parameter. The aNEWS ranged from a score of 0 to a maximum of 17. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis was used to evaluate the predictive value of the aNEWS for admission and in-hospital mortality. The median aNEWS of patients admitted to the hospital was significantly higher than that of patients discharged from the ED (P<0.001). The median aNEWS of survivors was significantly higher than that of non-survivors (P<0.001). The Areas under the ROC Curve (AUC) for predicting admission was 0.773 [95% CI 0.7142 to 0.8317, P<0.001] for the aNEWS. The AUC for predicting in-hospital mortality was 0.791 [95% CI 0.604 to 0.978, P<0.001] for the aNEWS. Our single-centred study has demonstrated the utility of the aNEWS as a predictor of patient admission and in-hospital mortality in elderly patients.

scholarly journals Comparison of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) for predicting admission and in-hospital mortality in elderly patients in the pre-hospital setting and in the emergency department

PeerJ ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. e6947 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toshiya Mitsunaga ◽  
Izumu Hasegawa ◽  
Masahiko Uzura ◽  
Kenji Okuno ◽  
Kei Otani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Pressure Pulse ◽  
Vital Signs ◽  
Early Warning Score ◽  
Single Centre ◽  
Peripheral Oxygen Saturation ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
National Early Warning Score

The aim of this study is to evaluate the usefulness of the pre-hospital National Early Warning Score (pNEWS) and the pre-hospital Modified Early Warning Score (pMEWS) for predicting admission and in-hospital mortality in elderly patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). We also compare the value of the pNEWS with that of the ED NEWS (eNEWS) and ED MEWS (eMEWS) for predicting admission and in-hospital mortality. This retrospective, single-centre observational study was carried out in the ED of Jikei University Kashiwa Hospital, in Chiba, Japan, from 1st April 2017 to 31st March 2018. All patients aged 65 years or older were included in this study. The pNEWS/eNEWS were derived from seven common physiological vital signs: respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturation, the presence of inhaled oxygen parameters, body temperature, systolic blood pressure, pulse rate and Alert, responds to Voice, responds to Pain, Unresponsive (AVPU) score, whereas the pMEWS/eMEWS were derived from six common physiological vital signs: respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturation, body temperature, systolic blood pressure, pulse rate and AVPU score. Discrimination was assessed by plotting the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calculating the area under the ROC curve (AUC). The median pNEWS, pMEWS, eNEWS and eMEWS were significantly higher at admission than at discharge (p < 0.001). The median pNEWS, pMEWS, eNEWS and eMEWS of non-survivors were significantly higher than those of the survivors (p < 0.001). The AUC for predicting admission was 0.559 for the pNEWS and 0.547 for the pMEWS. There was no significant difference between the AUCs of the pNEWS and the pMEWS for predicting admission (p = 0.102). The AUCs for predicting in-hospital mortality were 0.678 for the pNEWS and 0.652 for the pMEWS. There was no significant difference between the AUCs of the pNEWS and the pMEWS for predicting in-hospital mortality (p = 0.081). The AUC for predicting admission was 0.628 for the eNEWS and 0.591 for the eMEWS. The AUC of the eNEWS was significantly greater than that of the eMEWS for predicting admission (p < 0.001). The AUC for predicting in-hospital mortality was 0.789 for the eNEWS and 0.720 for the eMEWS. The AUC of the eNEWS was significantly greater than that of the eMEWS for predicting in-hospital mortality (p < 0.001). For admission and in-hospital mortality, the AUC of the eNEWS was significantly greater than that of the pNEWS (p < 0.001, p < 0.001), and the AUC of the eMEWS was significantly greater than that of the pMEWS (p < 0.01, p < 0.05). Our single-centre study has demonstrated the low utility of the pNEWS and the pMEWS as predictors of admission and in-hospital mortality in elderly patients, whereas the eNEWS and the eMEWS predicted admission and in-hospital mortality more accurately. Evidence from multicentre studies is needed before introducing pre-hospital versions of risk-scoring systems.

scholarly journals Use of the first National Early Warning Score recorded within 24 hours of admission to estimate the risk of in-hospital mortality in unplanned COVID-19 patients: a retrospective cohort study

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. e043721
Author(s):  
Donald Richardson ◽  
Muhammad Faisal ◽  
Massimo Fiori ◽  
Kevin Beatson ◽  
Mohammed Mohammed
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Early Warning Score ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Baseline Mortality ◽  
Acute Hospitals ◽  
National Early Warning Score

ObjectivesAlthough the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and its latest version NEWS2 are recommended for monitoring deterioration in patients admitted to hospital, little is known about their performance in COVID-19 patients. We aimed to compare the performance of the NEWS and NEWS2 in patients with COVID-19 versus those without during the first phase of the pandemic.DesignA retrospective cross-sectional study.SettingTwo acute hospitals (Scarborough and York) are combined into a single dataset and analysed collectively.ParticipantsAdult (≥18 years) non-elective admissions discharged between 11 March 2020 and 13 June 2020 with an index or on-admission NEWS2 electronically recorded within ±24 hours of admission to predict mortality at four time points (in-hospital, 24 hours, 48 hours and 72 hours) in COVID-19 versus non-COVID-19 admissions.ResultsOut of 6480 non-elective admissions, 620 (9.6%) had a diagnosis of COVID-19. They were older (73.3 vs 67.7 years), more often male (54.7% vs 50.1%), had higher index NEWS (4 vs 2.5) and NEWS2 (4.6 vs 2.8) scores and higher in-hospital mortality (32.1% vs 5.8%). The c-statistics for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 admissions was significantly lower using NEWS (0.64 vs 0.74) or NEWS2 (0.64 vs 0.74), however, these differences reduced at 72hours (NEWS: 0.75 vs 0.81; NEWS2: 0.71 vs 0.81), 48 hours (NEWS: 0.78 vs 0.81; NEWS2: 0.76 vs 0.82) and 24hours (NEWS: 0.84 vs 0.84; NEWS2: 0.86 vs 0.84). Increasing NEWS2 values reflected increased mortality, but for any given value the absolute risk was on average 24% higher (eg, NEWS2=5: 36% vs 9%).ConclusionsThe index or on-admission NEWS and NEWS2 offers lower discrimination for COVID-19 admissions versus non-COVID-19 admissions. The index NEWS2 was not proven to be better than the index NEWS. For each value of the index NEWS/NEWS2, COVID-19 admissions had a substantially higher risk of mortality than non-COVID-19 admissions which reflects the increased baseline mortality risk of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Impact of the level of sickness on higher mortality in emergency medical admissions to hospital at weekends

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 236-242 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Mohammed ◽  
Muhammad Faisal ◽  
Donald Richardson ◽  
Robin Howes ◽  
Kevin Beatson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Vital Signs ◽  
Early Warning Score ◽  
Emergency Admissions ◽  
Clinical Assessments ◽  
Admission Time ◽  
Emergency Medical ◽  
Acute Hospitals ◽  
National Early Warning Score

Objective Routine administrative data have been used to show that patients admitted to hospitals over the weekend appear to have a higher mortality compared to weekday admissions. Such data do not take the severity of sickness of a patient on admission into account. Our aim was to incorporate a standardized vital signs physiological-based measure of sickness known as the National Early Warning Score to investigate if weekend admissions are: sicker as measured by their index National Early Warning Score; have an increased mortality; and experience longer delays in the recording of their index National Early Warning Score. Methods We extracted details of all adult emergency medical admissions during 2014 from hospital databases and linked these with electronic National Early Warning Score data in four acute hospitals. We analysed 47,117 emergency admissions after excluding 1657 records, where National Early Warning Score was missing or the first (index) National Early Warning Score was recorded outside ±24 h of the admission time. Results Emergency medical admissions at the weekend had higher index National Early Warning Score (weekend: 2.53 vs. weekday: 2.30, p < 0.001) with a higher mortality (weekend: 706/11,332 6.23% vs. weekday: 2039/35,785 5.70%; odds ratio = 1.10, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.20, p = 0.04) which was no longer seen after adjusting for the index National Early Warning Score (odds ratio = 0.99, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.09, p = 0.87). Index National Early Warning Score was recorded sooner (−0.45 h, 95% CI −0.52 to −0.38, p < 0.001) for weekend admissions. Conclusions Emergency medical admissions at the weekend with electronic National Early Warning Score recorded within 24 h are sicker, have earlier clinical assessments, and after adjusting for the severity of their sickness, do not appear to have a higher mortality compared to weekday admissions. A larger definitive study to confirm these findings is needed.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the efficacy of the National Early Warning Score in predicting in-hospital mortality via the risk stratification

2018 ◽  
Vol 47 ◽  
pp. 222-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Young Seok Lee ◽  
Jae Woo Choi ◽  
Yeon Hee Park ◽  
Chaeuk Chung ◽  
Dong Il Park ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Score ◽  
National Early Warning Score

scholarly journals The National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) systematically underestimates the risk of in-hospital mortality in unplanned COVID-19 admissions to hospital

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald Richardson ◽  
Muhammad Faisal ◽  
Massimo Fiori ◽  
Kevin Beatson ◽  
Mohammed A Mohammed
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Clinical Staff ◽  
Early Warning Score ◽  
Time Points ◽  
Valid Predictor ◽  
National Early Warning Score ◽  
The Absolute

AbstractBackgroundAlthough the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and its latest version NEWS2 are recommended for monitoring for deterioration in patients admitted to hospital, little is known about their performance in COVID-19 patients. We analysed the performance of National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) during the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsAdult non-elective admissions discharged between 11-March-2020 to 13-June-2020 with an index NEWS2 electronically recorded within ±24 hours of admission are used to predict mortality at four time points (in-hospital, 24hours, 48hours, and 72hours) in COVID-19 versus non-COVID-19 admissions.ResultsOut of 6480 non-elective admissions, 620 (9.6%) had a diagnosis of COVID-19. They were older (73.3 vs 67.7yrs), more often male (54.7% vs 50.1%), had higher index NEWS (4 vs 2.5) and NEWS2 (4.6 vs 2.8) scores and higher in-hospital mortality (32.1% vs 5.8%). The c-statistics for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 admissions was significantly lower using NEWS (0.64 vs 0.74) or NEWS2 (0.64 vs 0.74), however these differences reduced at 72hours (NEWS: 0.75 vs 0.81; NEWS2: 0.71 vs 0.81), 48 hours (NEWS: 0.78 vs 0.81; NEWS2: 0.76 vs 0.82) and 24hours (NEWS: 0.84 vs 0.84; NEWS2: 0.86 vs 0.84). Increasing NEWS2 values reflected increased mortality, but for any given value the absolute risk was on average 24% higher (e.g.NEWS2=5: 36% vs 9%).InterpretationNEWS2 is a valid predictor of the mortality risk but substantially underestimates the absolute mortality risk in COVID-19 patients. Clinical staff and escalation protocols based on NEWS2 need to make note of this finding.

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