scholarly journals Establishment and Validation of a Nomogram for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients Concerning the Prognostic Effect of Parotid Lymph Node Metastases

2020 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 855-866 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Lin ◽  
Xue-Song Sun ◽  
Sai-Lan Liu ◽  
Xiao-Yun Li ◽  
Nian Lu ◽  
...  

Purpose The prognosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients with parotid lymph node (PLN) metastasis remains unclear. This study was performed to investigate the prognostic significance and optimal staging category of PLN metastasis and develop a nomogram for estimating individual risk.Materials and MethodsClinical data of 7,084 non-metastatic NPC patients were retrospectively reviewed. Overall survival (OS) was the primary endpoint. A nomogram was established based on the Cox proportional hazards regression model. The accuracy and calibration ability of this nomogram was evaluated by C-index and calibration curves with bootstrap validation.ResultTotally, 164/7,084 NPC patients (2.3%) presented with PLNs. Multivariate analyses showed that PLN metastasis was a negative prognostic factor for OS, progression-free survival (PFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), and locoregional relapse-free survival (LRFS). Patients with PLN metastasis had a worse prognosis than N3 disease. Five independent prognostic factors were included in the nomogram, which showed a C-index of 0.743. The calibration curves for probability of 3- and 5-year OS indicated satisfactory agreement between nomogram-based prediction and actual observation. All results were confirmed in the validation cohort.ConclusionNPC patient with PLN metastasis had poorer survival outcome (OS, PFS, DMFS, and LRFS) than N3 disease. We developed a nomogram to provide individual prediction of OS for patients with PLN metastasis.

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 787
Author(s):  
Ronald Wihal Oei ◽  
Yingchen Lyu ◽  
Lulu Ye ◽  
Fangfang Kong ◽  
Chengrun Du ◽  
...  

Background: The Cox proportional hazards (CPH) model is the most commonly used statistical method for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) prognostication. Recently, machine learning (ML) models are increasingly adopted for this purpose. However, only a few studies have compared the performances between CPH and ML models. This study aimed at comparing CPH with two state-of-the-art ML algorithms, namely, conditional survival forest (CSF) and DeepSurv for disease progression prediction in NPC. Methods: From January 2010 to March 2013, 412 eligible NPC patients were reviewed. The entire dataset was split into training cohort and testing cohort in a ratio of 90%:10%. Ten features from patient-related, disease-related, and treatment-related data were used to train the models for progression-free survival (PFS) prediction. The model performance was compared using the concordance index (c-index), Brier score, and log-rank test based on the risk stratification results. Results: DeepSurv (c-index = 0.68, Brier score = 0.13, log-rank test p = 0.02) achieved the best performance compared to CSF (c-index = 0.63, Brier score = 0.14, log-rank test p = 0.38) and CPH (c-index = 0.57, Brier score = 0.15, log-rank test p = 0.81). Conclusions: Both CSF and DeepSurv outperformed CPH in our relatively small dataset. ML-based survival prediction may guide physicians in choosing the most suitable treatment strategy for NPC patients.


Chemotherapy ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Liping Yang ◽  
Jing Gao ◽  
Yan Zhou ◽  
Zhenchao Tao ◽  
Jian He ◽  
...  

Introduction: The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of the albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio (AAPR) in patients with nonmetastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Methods: Patients with nonmetastatic NPC who underwent chemoradiotherapy (CRT) were retrospectively analyzed. The AAPR was calculated using the last value of albumin to alkaline phosphatase that was measured within 1 week before CRT. The optimal cutoff value for the AAPR value was determined by an X-tile plot. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to balance the differences of the baseline characteristics. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used to calculate the survival. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was conducted for the multivariate analysis. Results: Totally, 87 patients with nonmetastatic NPC who underwent CRT were included in the analysis. The optimal cutoff level for the AAPR was 0.46. The group with an AAPR ≤0.46 was more likely to have poorer overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) (p = 0.023, p = 0.031 and p = 0.027, for OS, PFS, and DMFS, respectively). In Cox proportional hazards analysis, high AAPR was a better prognostic predictor. Conclusion: AAPR may be a reliable prognostic index for nonmetastatic NPC patients.


2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 59-59
Author(s):  
Umang Swami ◽  
Taylor Ryan McFarland ◽  
Benjamin Haaland ◽  
Adam Kessel ◽  
Roberto Nussenzveig ◽  
...  

59 Background: In mCSPC, baseline CTC counts have been shown to correlate with PSA responses and progression free survival (PFS) in small studies in the context of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) without modern intensification with docetaxel or novel hormonal therapy. Similar correlation of CTC count with PSA responses and PFS was recently reported from an ongoing phase 3 trial in mCSPC setting (SWOG1216) without reporting the association in the context of ADT intensification. Furthermore, none of these studies correlated CTCs with overall survival (OS). Herein we evaluated whether CTCs were associated with outcomes including OS in a real world mCPSC population treated with intensified as well as non-intensified ADT. Methods: Eligibility criteria: new mCSPC receiving ADT with or without intensification and enumeration of baseline CTCs by FDA cleared Cell Search CTC assay. The relationship between CTC counts (categorized as: 0, 1-4, and ≥5/7.5 ml) and both PFS and OS was assessed in the context of Cox proportional hazards models, both unadjusted and adjusted for age, Gleason, PSA at ADT initiation, de novo vs. non-de novo status, and ADT intensification vs. non-intensification therapy. Results: Overall 99 pts were identified. Baseline characteristics are summarized in Table. In unadjusted analyses, CTC counts of ≥5 as compared to 0 were strongly associated with inferior PFS (hazard ratio [HR] 3.38, 95% CI 1.85-6.18; p < 0.001) and OS (HR 4.44 95% CI 1.63-12.10; p = 0.004). In multivariate analyses, CTC counts of ≥5 as compared to 0 continued to be associated with inferior PFS (HR 5.49, 95% CI 2.64-11.43; p < 0.001) and OS (HR 4.00, 95% CI 1.31-12.23; p = 0.015). Within the ADT intensification subgroup also, high CTC counts were associated with poor PFS and OS. For PFS, the univariate HR for CTC ≥5 vs. 0 was 4.87 (95% CI 1.66-14.30; p = 0.004) and multivariate HR for CTC ≥5 vs. 0 was 7.43 (95% CI 1.92-28.82; p = 0.004). For OS, the univariate HR for CTC ≥5 vs. 0 was 15.88 (95% CI 1.93-130.58; p = 0.010) and multivariate HR for CTC ≥5 vs. 0 was 24.86 (95% CI 2.03-304.45; p = 0.012). Conclusions: To best of our knowledge this is the first study to show that high baseline CTC counts are strongly associated with inferior PFS as well as OS in pts with newly diagnosed mCSPC, even in those who received intensified ADT therapy. Identifying these pts at highest risk of progression and death can help with counselling and prognostication in clinics as well as design and enrollment in future clinical trials. [Table: see text]


Blood ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 126 (23) ◽  
pp. 1751-1751 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anders Österborg ◽  
Anna Asklid ◽  
Joris Diels ◽  
Johanna Repits ◽  
Frans Söltoft ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Ibrutinib (Ibr), an oral, first-in-class covalent Bruton's tyrosine kinase inhibitor, showed in the Phase 3 RESONATE trial significantly improved progression-free survival (PFS, hazard ratio [HR] =0.22, p<0.001) and overall survival (OS, HR=0.39,p=0.001) compared with ofatumumab (ofa) in patients with previously treated CLL who were not eligible for chemoimmunotherapy (Byrd et al, NEJM 2013). Long-term follow-up data from a single arm Phase 2 study have also demonstrated that patients treated with ibrutinib have long durable responses with a PFS at 2.5 years of 69% (Byrd et al, Blood 2015). While ofatumumab is a licensed comparator and included in treatment guidelines, some Health Technology Assessment (HTA) bodies require comparisons with a wider range of treatments. In the absence of direct head-to-head comparison of single-agent ibrutinib with other frequently used treatments in this patient population, additional comparative evidence against standard of care as observed in clinical practice can provide useful insights on the relative efficacy of ibrutinib. Naïve (unadjusted) comparisons of outcomes from different sources are prone to bias due to confounding, as treatment assignments were not randomly assigned, and populations can vary in important prognostic factors. The objective of this analysis was to compare the relative efficacy of Ibr versus physician's choice in R/R CLL-patients based on patient-level data from RESONATE pooled with an observational cohort, adjusting for confounders using multivariate statistical modelling. Methods Patient-level data from the Phase 3 RESONATE trial (Ibr: n=195; ofa: n=196) were pooled with data from a retrospective observational study conducted in the Stockholm area in Sweden. This retrospective study collected efficacy and safety data from a detailed, in-depth retrospective review of individual patient files from 148 consecutively identified patients with R/R CLL initiated on second or later line treatment between 2002 and 2013 at the four CLL-treating centers in Stockholm, Sweden, with complete follow-up. Longitudinal follow-up in subsequent treatment lines was available for patients in 3rd (n=91), 4th (n=51), 5th (n=29), and 6+ (n=15) line, and as such individual patients could contribute information to the analysis for multiple lines of therapy, with baseline defined as the date of initiation of the actual treatment line. A multivariate cox proportional hazards model was developed to compare PFS and OS between treatments, including line of therapy, age, gender, Binet stage, ECOG, and refractory disease as covariates. Adjusted HRs and 95% CIs are presented vs. Ibr. Results Across all treatment lines, fludarabine-cyclophosphamide (FC) (n=64), chlorambucil (n=59), alemtuzumab (n=33), FC+rituximab (FCR) (n=30), bendamustine+rituximab (BR) (n=28), and other rituximab-based combination chemotherapy (n=28) were the most frequently used treatments. Line of therapy, age and gender, Binet stage, ECOG performance status, and refractory disease were all independent risk factors for worse outcome on both PFS and OS. The adjusted HR for PFS and OS pooled observational data versus Ibr were 6.80 [4.72;9.80] (p<0.0001) and 2.90 [1.80;4.69] (p<0.0001). HR's for PFS/OS versus most frequent treatment regimens ranged between 2.50/1.82 (FCR) and 14.00/5.34 (anti-CD20 Mab). Baseline adjusted results for the Ofa-arm in RESONATE were comparable for both PFS and OS to outcome data from the consecutive historical cohort, however OS outcomes for Ofa were partly confounded by cross-over to Ibr. Conclusions Comparison of results from the Phase 3 RESONATE study with treatments used as part of previous standard of care in a well-defined cohort of consecutive Swedish patients shows that ibrutinib is superior to physician's choice in patients with relapsed/refractory CLL, suggesting a more than 6 fold improvement in PFS and almost 3 fold improvement in OS. Results were consistent across all different physician chosen treatments and provides further evidence that ibrutinib improves both PFS and OS vs current and prior standard of care regimens. Figure 1. Adjusted Hazard ratio's for PFS and OS of physician's choice versus Ibrutinib (RESONATE) (Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression) a. Progression-free survival b. Overall survival Figure 1. Adjusted Hazard ratio's for PFS and OS of physician's choice versus Ibrutinib (RESONATE) (Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression). / a. Progression-free survival b. Overall survival Disclosures Österborg: Janssen Cilag: Research Funding. Asklid:Janssen Cilag: Research Funding. Diels:Janssen: Employment. Repits:Janssen Cilag: Employment. Söltoft:Janssen Cilag: Employment. Hansson:Jansse Cilag: Research Funding. Jäger:Janssen Cilag: Research Funding.


2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 743-743
Author(s):  
Satoshi Yuki ◽  
Hiroshi Nakatsumi ◽  
Hideyuki Hayashi ◽  
Hiraku Fukushima ◽  
Takashi Kato ◽  
...  

743 Background: It was reported that an optimal morphologic response to preoperative chemotherapy was associated with better overall survival (OS) in patients (pts) with colorectal liver metastases (CLM). We investigated association of morphologic response with progression free survival (PFS) in pts with unresectable CLM from HGCSG0802 observational cohort study in pts with mCRC treated with first-line bevacizumab (BV)-based chemotherapy. Methods: The objective of HGCSG0802 was to evaluate PFS, OS, time to treatment failure (TTF), response rate (RR), safety, etc. The key eligibility criteria were evaluable lesions, older than 20 years old, ECOG PS 0-2. Pts with CLM underwent contrast-enhanced CT at the start and every 8-weeks of BV-based chemotherapy. In this analysis, three blinded, independent radiologists evaluated images for morphologic response, based on metastases changing from heterogeneous masses with ill-defined margins into homogeneous hypoattenuating lesions with sharp borders. Association of morphologic response and pts characteristics, RR, and PFS were evaluated. PFS was analyzed with Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards model. Results: Of 108 pts (the full analysis set), 73 pts with CLM were evaluable for morphologic criteria. Eighteen pts (24.7%) had optimal morphologic response (OR), 31 (42.5%) had incomplete (IR), and 24 (32.9%) had no response (NR). The pts characteristics between those with OR, IR and NR were generally balanced. The median TTF was 7.2 months in NR versus 7.2 months in IR versus 6.8 months in OR (HR (OR/NR) = 0.91, HR (OR/IR) = 0.90; p = 0.93). RR was 77.8% in OR versus 64.5% in IR and 58.3% in NR (p = 0.528). The median PFS was 8.3 months in NR versus 8.5 months in IR versus 9.1 months in OR (HR (OR/NR) = 0.72, HR (OR/IR) = 1.04; p = 0.420). Conclusions: In this analysis, morphologic response might not be a prognostic marker in first-line BV-based chemotherapy in pts with CLM.


2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 425-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li-Tzong Chen ◽  
Jens T Siveke ◽  
Andrea Wang-Gillam ◽  
Richard Hubner ◽  
Shubham Pant ◽  
...  

425 Background: CA19-9 has been shown to correlate with response to therapy and OS in patients with mPAC. NAPOLI-1, a randomized phase 3 study evaluated nal-IRI, a nanoliposomal formulation of irinotecan, with or without 5-FU/LV vs 5-FU/LV in patients with mPAC previously treated with gemcitabine-based therapy. Nal-IRI+5-FU/LV significantly improved OS (primary endpoint) vs 5-FU/LV (6.1 mo vs 4.2 mo; unstratified hazard ratio [HR] = 0.67; P = 0.012). CA19-9 response (≥50% decline from baseline) was superior with nal-IRI+5FU/LV compared with 5-FU/LV (29% vs 9%; P=0.0006). Nal-IRI alone did not show a statistical improvement in survival. Methods: Patients with a recorded baseline CA19-9 measurement were divided into quartiles to evaluate the treatment effect pattern of CA19-9 from nal-IRI+5-FU/LV and 5-FU/LV arms. Quartile ranges were based on 404 available CA19-9 values from randomized patients (N=417). Unstratified Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate HRs and corresponding 95% CIs. Effect of baseline CA19-9 on time to response, progression-free survival, and response will be presented. Results: Of patients randomized to receive nal-IRI+5-FU/LV (n = 117) or 5-FU/LV enrolled contemporaneously (n = 119), 218 received study drug and had a baseline CA19-9 measurement. Results show a greater treatment effect on OS with higher CA19-9 level relative to 5-FU/LV. Conclusions: In patients with mPAC previously treated with gemcitabine-based therapy, nal-IRI+5-FU/LV significantly improved OS supported by progression free survival and objective response rate. The CA19-9 serum level can provide important information with regards to overall survival. Clinical trial information: NCT01494506. [Table: see text]


2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 5023-5023 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Jay Small ◽  
Fred Saad ◽  
Simon Chowdhury ◽  
Stephane Oudard ◽  
Boris A. Hadaschik ◽  
...  

5023 Background: The addition of APA to ongoing ADT in pts with nmCRPC significantly prolonged metastasis-free survival (MFS), time to symptomatic progression (SymProg), and second progression-free survival (PFS2) in SPARTAN. We assessed the impact of APA on these end points in pts with or without BL CM. Methods: Using Cox proportional hazards models, treatment effect of APA was evaluated in SPARTAN pts with CM at BL, stratifying by the presence of BL diabetes/hyperglycemia (D/H), cardiovascular disease (CVD), hypertension (HTN), and renal insufficiency (RI). Results: Of 1207 SPARTAN pts, 1062 (88%) had ≥ 1 BL CM, including 703/806 (87%) APA pts and 359/401 (90%) PBO pts. A total of 226 (19%), 398 (33%), 798 (66%), and 774 (64%) pts had D/H, CVD, HTN, and RI, respectively; 323 (27%), 412 (34%), 259 (21%), and 68 (6%) pts had 1, 2, 3, and 4 CM, respectively. Incidence of CM was balanced between arms. Pts with CM were older than pts with no CM (median age, 75 vs 69 yrs, APA; 74 vs 69 yrs, PBO). MFS, SymProg, and PFS2 benefit with APA was significant in all CM subgroups, except PFS2 for pts with D/H (Table) and regardless of the number of CM. The incidence of any treatment-emergent AE was balanced between pts with and without CM. AEs with APA were not affected by any CM. Clinical trial information: NCT01946204. Conclusions: The benefit of APA + ongoing ADT in pts with nmCRPC was maintained in pts with D/H, CVD, HTN, and RI. The safety profile of APA was not affected by any CM.[Table: see text]


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
David Guy ◽  
Rachel Glicksman ◽  
Roger Buckley ◽  
Patrick Cheung ◽  
Hans Chung ◽  
...  

Introduction: Identifying the optimal management of unfavorable-risk (ProCaRS high intermediate-, high-, and very high-risk categories) non-metastatic prostate cancer is an important public health concern given the large burden of this disease. We compared the rate of metastatic progression-free survival among men diagnosed with unfavorable-risk non-metastatic prostate cancer who were initially treated with radiation therapy or radical prostatectomy. Methods: Information was obtained from medical records at two academic centers in Canada from 333 men diagnosed with unfavorable-risk non-metastatic prostate cancer between 2007 and 2012. Median followup was 90.4 months. Men were eligible for study if they received either primary radiation therapy (n=164) or radical prostatectomy (n=169), in addition to various adjuvant and salvage therapies when deemed clinically appropriate. Patients were matched on prognostic covariates using two matching techniques. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) and confidence intervals (CI) for metastatic progression-free survival between groups. Results: After matching, treatment groups were balanced on prognostic variables except for percent core positivity. Hazard ratios from all Cox proportional hazards models (i.e., before and after matching, and with and without multivariable adjustment) showed no difference in the rate of metastatic progression-free survival between groups (adjusted unmatched HR 1.16, 95% CI 0.63, 2.13, p=0.64). Conclusions: Metastatic progression-free survival did not differ between men diagnosed with unfavorable risk non-metastatic prostate cancer who were treated with either radiation therapy or radical prostatectomy.


2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 32-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olusola Olusesan Faluyi ◽  
Lawson Eng ◽  
Xin Qui ◽  
Dangxiao Cheng ◽  
Daniel John Renouf ◽  
...  

32 Background: Better understanding of the biology of esophageal cancer may help improve its treatment. MicroRNAs (miRs) regulate mRNA and can exert some influence on carcinogenesis. Identification of the microRNAs which regulate esophageal cancer development could potentially yield alternative therapeutic options. Objectives: We evaluated polymorphisms in miRs, miR biogenesis, binding sites of miR and their role in the survival of esophageal cancer patients. Methods: 324 esophageal cancer patients of all stages and histological subtypes were evaluated. Using Illumina Custom GoldenGate, 43 polymorphisms in miR pathways were evaluated. Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for clinical prognostic variables and determined the association of polymorphisms with overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS). Adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Results: Among our patients, 83% were male while the mean age was 65 years. 73% had adenocarcinomas while 33.6% had advanced tumors (Stage IV). The median PFS was 1.20 years, while median OS was 2.17 years. After adjustment for clinical variables, a 5’UTR polymorphism in pri-mir26a-1 (rs7372209) was significantly associated with reduced PFS [aHR=0.78, CI:0.62-0.98, p=0.04] and OS [aHR 0.71 (0.56-0.89), p=0.003]. Three other polymorphisms were significantly associated with OS but not PFS: these included two polymorphisms of miR processing genes, DDX20 (rs197412) [aHR 1.31 (1.04-1.64), p=0.02] and EIF2C1 (rs595961) [aHR 0.76 (0.60-0.97), p=0.03] as well as the CD86 3’UTR C>G (rs17281995) polymorphism, which has been predicted to affect the binding of miR337, miR582, miR200a, miR184, and miR212 [aHR 1.38 (1.03-1.85), p=0.03]. Conclusions: We report the initial association of miR related polymorphisms with survival in esophageal cancer. We plan to explore additional relationships and validate these findings in other datasets.


Neurosurgery ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 74 (3) ◽  
pp. 292-301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grant W. Mallory ◽  
Bruce E. Pollock ◽  
Robert L. Foote ◽  
Matthew L. Carlson ◽  
Colin L. Driscoll ◽  
...  

Abstract BACKGROUND: Management of neurofibromatosis type 2 (NF2)—associated vestibular schwannomas (VSs) remains controversial. Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) with conventional dosing is less effective for NF2-related VS compared with sporadic lesions. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate optimal SRS dose parameters for NF2-related VS and to report long-term outcomes. METHODS: A prospective database was reviewed and outcome measures, including radiographic progression, American Academy of Otolaryngology—Head and Neck Surgery hearing class, and facial nerve function, were analyzed. Progression-free survival was estimated with Kaplan-Meier methods. Associations between tumor progression and radiosurgical treatment parameters, tumor volume, and patient age were explored with the use of Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2010, 26 patients with 32 NF2-related VSs underwent SRS. Median marginal dose and tumor volume were 14 Gy and 2.7 cm3, respectively. Twenty-seven tumors (84%) showed no growth (median follow-up, 7.6 years). Kaplan-Meier estimates for 5- and 10-year progression-free survival were 85% and 80%, respectively. Cox proportional hazards demonstrated a significant inverse association between higher marginal doses and tumor progression (hazard ratio, 0.49; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.92; P = .02). Audiometric data were available in 30 ears, with 12 having class A/B hearing before SRS. Only 3 maintained serviceable hearing at the last follow-up. Four underwent cochlear implantation. Initially, 3 achieved open-set speech recognition, although only 1 experienced long-term benefit. Facial nerve function remained stable in 50% of cases. CONCLUSION: Higher marginal doses than commonly prescribed for sporadic VS were associated with improved tumor control in patients with NF2. Hearing outcomes were poor even when contemporary reduced marginal doses were used. However, SRS allows an anatomically preserved cochlear nerve and may permit hearing rehabilitation with cochlear implantation. Further consideration should be given to optimum dosing to achieve long-term control while maximizing functional outcomes.


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