The Effectiveness of Artificial Credit Scoring Models in Predicting NPLs using Micro Accounting Data

This paper deals with dynamic small enterprises which grow to achieve stock market quotation and comprises three main sections: a review of theoretical arguments concerning the effects of growth on small enterprises’ financial characteristics; a consideration of the predictability of small enterprise failure and success; and an assessment of development of predictive models. Results of empirical work in the UK and Australia are reported. The first section of the paper deals with the development of a prior arguments concerning the effects of growth on financial characteristics. This links financial characteristics in the form of profitability, liquidity and leverage with stage of development of enterprises including that of growth. This includes consideration of the ‘finance gap’ and the effect of stock market flotation on small enterprises’ financial characteristics. The purpose of this theorising is to make explicit what might be expected in terms of the effects of growth on the financial characteristics of small enterprises. The section concludes with an explanation of the methodology for the empiricial studies carried out at the University of New England on this topic. The second section of the paper deals with the predictability of small enterprise success and failure. This includes: consideration of the financial characteristics of dynamic small enterprises as they approach and go past stock market flotation; a review of previous work on predictive models in general and those for small enterprises in particular; and discussion of the issue of the problem of distinguishing between success and failure. The third section deals with the issues involved in the development of predictive models. These include: statistical and theoretical issues; the reliability of financial statement data; and the incorporation of non-financial variables. The conclusions consider the implications for relationships with providers of finance, particularly banks, and for owner-managers of the dynamic small enterprise. The finding that dynamic small enterprises have financial characteristics in common with bankrupt enterprises raises questions as to the effectiveness of credit scoring techniques which make use of accounting data. This in turn raises the prospect of small enterprises being denied finance and the creation of a new ‘finance gap’. Finally, consideration given to the implications of the findings for financial institutions, small enterprise owner-managers and for future research.

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TOOLS AND PECULIARITIES OF SOLVING THE CLASSIFICATION PROBLEM IN CREDIT SCORING SYSTEMS

CONTINUUM. MATHS. INFORMATICS. EDUCATION ◽

10.24888/2500-1957-2020-17-1-51-59 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (1) ◽

pp. 51-59

Author(s):

A.A. Grishin ◽

◽

S.P. Stroyev ◽

Keyword(s):

Credit Scoring ◽

Scoring Systems ◽

Classification Problem

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Assessment of changes in the application of the accounting regulation pbu 18/02 “Аccounting for income tax calculations” since 2020

Buhuchet v sel'skom hozjajstve (Accounting in Agriculture) ◽

10.33920/sel-11-2007-01 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 10-24

Author(s):

Irina Selezneva ◽

Elena Shlyapnikova

Keyword(s):

Income Tax ◽

Financial Statements ◽

Accounting Data ◽

Current Income ◽

Accounting Regulation ◽

New Concepts ◽

Net Profit ◽

The Russian Federation ◽

Ministry Of Finance ◽

Tax Payers

The article assesses the changes made by the Order of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation dated 20.11.2018 No. 236n v PBU 18/02 “Accounting for settlements with the budget for income tax”. The application of the new norms of PBU 18/02 is mandatory for corporate income tax payers with accounting (financial) statements for 2020. The essence of the problem is that the updated PBU 18/02 contains new concepts, new calculations of indicators necessary for reflection in accounting and accounting (financial) statements. The article consists of six parts, beginning with an introduction and ending with conclusions. The introduction substantiates the relevance of the study. At the beginning of the article, the purpose and objectives of the research are defined, as well as the materials, methods and conditions for conducting the research. The results of the study and their discussion are presented below. In the article, the authors highlight the problem of transition from the previously existing norms of PBU 18/02 to the new norms applied from 2020. The main part compares the concepts and indicators used in 2019 and 2020 in accordance with the requirements of PBU 18/02. The article also addresses the issues of evaluating work in progress in accordance with the requirements of regulatory legal acts in the field of accounting and taxation. The procedure for applying the norms of PBU 18/02 is shown on a specific example and the calculation procedures made that justify the occurrence of temporary differences that lead to the recognition of deferred income tax, as well as conditional income tax expense and current income tax on the accounting accounts. For clarity and comparison, the indicators for the application of PBU 18/02 in 2019 and 2020 are presented in the tables. In addition, the tables show the schemes of accounting transactions for accounting calculations with the budget for income tax in two ways to determine the current income tax: based on accounting data and based on tax Declaration data. Having considered a specific example of the procedure for applying the norms of PBU 18/02 in the version up to 2020 and in the current version from 2020, the authors conclude that changes in the procedure for identifying temporary differences do not mean a change in their value and the value of net profit

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Formation of feeding groups according to management accounting data

Buhuchet v sel'skom hozjajstve (Accounting in Agriculture) ◽

10.33920/sel-11-2006-03 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 31-36

Author(s):

Boris Lukyanov ◽

Pavel Lukyanov

Keyword(s):

Software Package ◽

Management Accounting ◽

Coral Software ◽

Cattle Farm ◽

Accounting Data ◽

Feeding Groups

The article discusses the solution to the problem of uniting animals on a cattle farm into groups to organize their rational feeding. The task is solved based on the use of management accounting data; the solution of the problem is automated with the help of the CORAL software package

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Regression model of assessment of customer solvency and banking risks in the process of lending

Socio-Economic Problems of the Modern Period of Ukraine ◽

10.36818/2071-4653-2019-4-11 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 69-73

Author(s):

Zoryna Yurynets ◽

Rostyslav Yurynets ◽

Nataliya Kunanets ◽

Ivanna Myshchyshyn

Keyword(s):

Logistic Regression ◽

Discriminant Analysis ◽

Regression Model ◽

Likelihood Ratio ◽

Credit Scoring ◽

Bank Loans ◽

Management Decisions ◽

Computer Data ◽

Proposed Model ◽

Loan Risk

In the current conditions of economic development, it is important to pay attention to the study of the main types of risks, effective methods of evaluation, monitoring, analysis of banking risks. One of the main approaches to quantitatively assessing the creditworthiness of borrowers is credit scoring. The objective of credit scoring is to optimize management decisions regarding the possibility of providing bank loans. In the article, the scientific and methodological provisions concerning the formation of a regression model for assessing bank risks in the process of granting loans to borrowers has been proposed. The proposed model is based on the use of logistic regression tools, discriminant analysis with the use of expert evaluation. During the formation of a regression model, the relationship between risk factors and probable magnitude of loan risk has been established. In the course of calculations, the coefficient of the individual's solvency has been calculated. Direct computer data preparation, including the calculation of the indicators selected in the process of discriminant analysis, has been carried out in the Excel package environment, followed by their import into the STATISTICA package for analysis in the “Logistic regression” sub-module of the “Nonlinear evaluation” module. The adequacy of the constructed model has been determined using the Macfaden's likelihood ratio index. The calculated value of the Macfaden's likelihood ratio index indicates the adequacy of the constructed model. The ability to issue loans to new clients has been evaluated using a regression model. The conducted calculations show the possibility of granting a loan exclusively to the second and third clients. The offered method allows to conduct assessment of client's solvency and risk prevention at different stages of lending, facilitates the possibility to independently make informed decisions on credit servicing of clients and management of a loan portfolio, optimization of management decisions in banks. In order for a loan-based model to continue to perform its functions, it must be periodically adjusted.

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FEATURES OF FUNCTIONING OF INVESTMENT-INNOVATIVE ACTIVITY. DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN EXPERIENCE

EKONOMIKA I UPRAVLENIE: PROBLEMY, RESHENIYA ◽

10.36871/ek.up.p.r.2020.03.02.016 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2 (3) ◽

pp. 90-96

Author(s):

A. P. DROZDOVA ◽

◽

S. M. MOLCHANOVA ◽

Keyword(s):

Russian Federation ◽

Legal Regulation ◽

Economic Incentives ◽

Intellectual Activity ◽

Accounting Data ◽

Foreign Companies ◽

Scientific Potential ◽

The Russian Federation ◽

Innovative Potential ◽

Business Entities

The article discusses information sources in assessing the effectiveness of innovations, types of cash inflows, cash outflows in the context of the organization's operational, investment and financial activities. The problem of insufficient relevance of accounting data in the analysis of the effectiveness of investment in innovation is reflected. The need for systematization of the current regulatory legal acts of the Russian Federation to integrate information on the results of intellectual activity into a single mechanism for effective management of the development of innovative potential of the Russian Federation is noted. The experience of foreign companies in the investment and innovation sphere is summarized. The factors influencing the development of the scientific potential of Russian companies and the need to introduce economic incentives for innovation entities are presented. The functions of the RF authorities in the field of legal regulation of innovations for the successful development of mechanisms for interaction between business entities and the state, the protection of intellectual property and the growth of the effectiveness of the practical application of innovative developments are generalized.

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