scholarly journals Exploring links between national climate strategies and non-state and subnational climate action in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

Author(s):  
Angel Hsu ◽  
John Brandt ◽  
Oscar Widerberg ◽  
Sander Chan ◽  
Amy Weinfurter
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingxi Du ◽  
Yu Liu ◽  
Qi Cui ◽  
Jintai Lin ◽  
Yawen Liu ◽  
...  

Abstract Substantially enhancing carbon mitigation ambition is a crucial step towards achieving the Paris climate goal. Yet this attempt is hampered by poor knowledge on the net economic effect of mitigation for each emitter, by taking into account potential cost and benefit. Here we use a global economic model with regional and sectoral disaggregation details to assess the mitigation costs for 27 major emitting countries and regions, and further contrast the costs against the potential benefits of mitigation valued as avoided social cost of carbon. We find substantial variabilities across these emitters in both cost and benefit of mitigating each ton of carbon dioxide and, more importantly, a strong negative spatial correlation between cost and benefit. The relative suitability of carbon mitigation, defined as the ratio of normalized benefit to normalized cost, shows great spatial mismatch with the mitigation ambition of emitters indicated in their first intended nationally determined contributions. China is relatively suitable for domestic carbon mitigation and could largely enhance their mitigation ambition. The European Union, which is economically less suitable to reduce domestic emissions, could work with many developing countries which are more suitable but less capable to reduce emissions. Our work provides important information to improve concerted climate action and formulate more efficient mitigation strategy.


Author(s):  
Tobias Nielsen ◽  
Nicolai Baumert ◽  
Astrid Kander ◽  
Magnus Jiborn ◽  
Viktoras Kulionis

Abstract Although climate change and international trade are interdependent, policy-makers often address the two topics separately. This may inhibit progress at the intersection of climate change and trade and could present a serious constraint for global climate action. One key risk is carbon leakage through emission outsourcing, i.e. reductions in emissions in countries with rigorous climate policies being offset by increased emissions in countries with less stringent policies. We first analyze the Paris Agreement’s nationally determined contributions (NDC) and investigate how carbon leakage is addressed. We find that the risk of carbon leakage is insufficiently accounted for in these documents. Then, we apply a novel quantitative approach (Jiborn et al., 2018; Baumert et al., 2019) to analyze trends in carbon outsourcing related to a previous international climate regime—the Kyoto Protocol—in order to assess whether reported emission reductions were offset by carbon outsourcing in the past. Our results for 2000–2014 show a more nuanced picture of carbon leakage during the Kyoto Protocol than previous studies have reported. Carbon outsourcing from developed to developing countries was dominated by the USA outsourcing to China, while the evidence for other developed countries was mixed. Against conventional wisdom, we find that, in general, countries that stayed committed to their Kyoto Protocol emission targets were either only minor carbon outsourcers or actually even insourcers—although the trend was slightly negative—indicating that binding emissions targets do not necessarily lead to carbon outsourcing. We argue that multiple carbon monitoring approaches are needed to reduce the risk of carbon leakage.


2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan E. Hultman ◽  
Leon Clarke ◽  
Carla Frisch ◽  
Kevin Kennedy ◽  
Haewon McJeon ◽  
...  

Abstract Approaches that root national climate strategies in local actions will be essential for all countries as they develop new nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. The potential impact of climate action from non-national actors in delivering higher global ambition is significant. Sub-national action in the United States provides a test for how such actions can accelerate emissions reductions. We aggregated U.S. state, city, and business commitments within an integrated assessment model to assess how a national climate strategy can be built upon non-state actions. We find that existing commitments alone could reduce emissions 25% below 2005 levels by 2030, and that enhancing actions by these actors could reduce emissions up to 37%. We show how these actions can provide a stepped-up basis for additional federal action to reduce emissions by 49%—consistent with 1.5 °C. Our analysis demonstrates sub-national actions can lead to substantial reductions and support increased national action.


2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 443-457 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angel Hsu ◽  
John Brandt ◽  
Oscar Widerberg ◽  
Sander Chan ◽  
Amy Weinfurter

Significance In preparation, 146 countries submitted climate action plans that are ambitious enough to allow limiting global warning below 2 degrees Celsius. The 'Intended Nationally Determined Contributions' (INDCs) cover 86% of the global economy and areas of high demand for financial flows. Announcements by multilateral development banks (MDBs) and the Green Climate Fund (GCF) suggest increasing public provision of climate finance. Impacts The announced plans will help cut global CO2 emissions by 9% by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. Specific pledges such as India's commitment to generate 40% of energy from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030 will drive capital allocation. Climate financing may become less fragmented, though the GCF will require more years to deliver at full potential.


2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 142-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert O. Keohane ◽  
Michael Oppenheimer

The Paris Climate Agreement of December 2015 marks a decisive break from the unsuccessful Kyoto regime. Instead of targets and timetables, it established a Pledge and Review system, under which states will offer Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to reducing emissions that cause climate change. But this successful negotiation outcome was achieved at the price of vagueness of obligations and substantial discretion for governments. Many governments will be tempted to use the vagueness of the Paris Agreement, and the discretion that it permits, to limit the scope or intensity of their proposed actions. Whether Pledge and Review under the Paris Agreement will lead to effective action against climate change will therefore depend on the inclination both of OECD countries and newly industrializing countries to take costly actions, which for the OECD countries will include financial transfers to their poorer partners. Domestic politics will be crucial in determining the attitudes of both sets of countries to pay such costs. The actual impact of the Paris Agreement will depend on whether it can be used by domestic groups favoring climate action as a point of leverage in domestic politics—that is, in a “two-level game” simultaneously involving both international and domestic politics.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Pierre Gattuso ◽  
Phillip Williamson ◽  
Carlos M. Duarte ◽  
Alexandre K. Magnan

The effectiveness, feasibility, duration of effects, co-benefits, disbenefits, cost effectiveness and governability of four ocean-based negative emissions technologies (NETs) are assessed in comparison to eight other ocean-based measures. Their role in revising UNFCCC Parties' future Nationally Determined Contributions is discussed in the broad context of ocean-based actions for both mitigation and ecological adaptation. All measures are clustered in three policy-relevant categories (Decisive, Low Regret, Concept Stage). None of the ocean-based NETs assessed are identified as Decisive at this stage. One is Low Regret (Restoring and increasing coastal vegetation), and three are at Concept Stage, one with low to moderate potential disbenefits (Marine bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) and two with potentially high disbenefits (Enhancing open-ocean productivity and Enhancing weathering and alkalinization). Ocean-based NETs are uncertain but potentially highly effective. They have high priority for research and development.


2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 285-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christina Voigt ◽  
Felipe Ferreira

AbstractThe Paris Agreement has struck a careful balance between the need for ambitious and effective climate action and for fair effort sharing among parties based on differentiation. This article provides an overview of the negotiation history of differentiation and analyzes the ‘dynamic differentiation’ as built into the architecture of the Agreement. While being set against the normative background of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Paris Agreement adopts a more diversified way of differential treatment among parties, approaching it in three complementary ways: firstly, on a principled basis, reflecting common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC), in the light of different national circumstances; secondly, in the content of its articles, in particular on mitigation, finance and transparency; and thirdly, on the basis of the principles of progression and highest possible ambition, which represent new and dynamic aspects of differentiation. The authors argue that ‘highest possible ambition’ is reflective of a duty of care that states now need to exercise. It implies a due diligence standard, which requires each government to act in proportion to the risk at stake and to take all appropriate and adequate climate measures according to its responsibility and its best capabilities. By expecting parties to apply this standard at each successive preparation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs), and to progress beyond previous ones, the Paris Agreement has set up reiterative processes, an ‘international normative pull’ and a collective learning environment. This, in turn, creates a reflexive approach to parties’ determination of effort, promoting the evolution of voluntary cooperative behaviour.


Subject Prospects for climate governance in 2017. Significance The November 7-18 COP22 climate conference produced a new political declaration, the 'Marrakech Action Proclamation for Climate and Sustainable Development’, reaffirming the collective commitment to step up climate action to meet the temperature goal of keeping warming to below 2 degrees centigrade. Upward trends in renewable energy capacity are also promising, particularly as countries prepare to turn their nationally-determined contributions made under the Paris Agreement into reality. This progress remains fragile, however, because of uncertainty about the extent of US backtracking on international climate cooperation following the election of Donald Trump as the next US president.


Author(s):  
Shanal Pradhan ◽  
Shwetal Shah

At the September 2019 UN climate action summit, India vowed to upscale its climate action by focusing on a low carbon pathway through renewables and other forms of clean energy, adopting sustainable mobility, preserving water, and securing finances for this transition. Implementing and up scaling these actions form an influential agenda under India’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement. The emphasis on national determination and its success strongly hinges on the ambition of the states and the seriousness it has for driving climate actions. The initial step is to streamline such activities at sub-national levels to achieve climate change goals. Indian states, like countries, are too at different starting points with dissimilarities in their economic and developmental interests. Climate priorities took center stage for a few states, while many others have not been too aspirational due to misplaced prerogatives and differing capabilities. Thus, a pertinent question which arises is, could cross-pollination of ideas and innovations push states for concrete climate actions? This paper discusses a few prominent initiatives from the progressive state of Gujarat that could facilitate the exchange of climate measures in other states.


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