scholarly journals Toward the development of a multi parametric system for a short-term assessment of the seismic hazard in Italy

2020 ◽  
Vol 63 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Genzano ◽  
Carolina Filizzola ◽  
Mariano Lisi ◽  
Nicola Pergola ◽  
Valerio Tramutoli
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Seismic Events ◽  
Seismic Process ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Parametric System ◽  
Infrared Imager ◽  
Satellite Sensors ◽  
Casual Relation

With the aim to develop a multi-parametric system devote to improving our present capability to assess seismic hazard particularly in the short-medium term, the preliminary step is to identify those parameters that have demonstrated their non-casual relation with earthquake occurrences and whose anomalous variations can be associated to the complex seismic process. Since 80, fluctuations of Earth thermally emitted radiation, measured by satellite sensors in the Thermal InfraRed (TIR) spectral region, have been reported by several authors in some connection with the occurrence of earthquakes; they and can be considered as one of the possible parameters to include within a multi-parametric system. In this paper, the Robust Satellite Techniques (RST) approach has been exploited to highlight Significant Sequences of TIR Anomalies (SSTAs) possibly related to seismic events happened in Italy in the period June 2004 - December 2014. In particular, we evaluated the level of correlation between occurrence of earthquakes with M≥4 and RST-based TIR anomalies using two different spatial resolutions of MSG-SEVIRI (Meteosat Second Generation -Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager) images. Results of the two RST analyses show that the 82% of the identified SSTAs does not disappear when downscaled spatial resolution SEVIRI TIR records were used. For both analyses, more than 60% of SSTAs is apparently in connection with the occurrence of M≥4 earthquakes; more than the 80% of them has tendency to anticipate the occurrence of earthquakes. Although about the 40% of SSTAs is not apparently related to documented seismic activity (false positives), results of random tests (i.e. Molchan’s error diagrams) indicate a non-casual correlation between SSTAs and earthquake occurrences. These results confirm that the parameter “RST-based satellite TIR anomalies” is one of the possible candidates to be included in a multi-parametric system for time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH).

Insight on the results of three different correlation analyses between satellite TIR anomalies and earthquake occurrence

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolina Filizzola ◽  
Roberto Colonna ◽  
Alexander Eleftheriou ◽  
Nicola Genzano ◽  
Katsumi Hattori ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
International Workshop ◽  
Statistical Correlation ◽  
Physical Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correlation Analyses ◽  
Multi Temporal ◽  
Casual Relation ◽  
Large Earthquakes

<p>In order to evaluate the potentiality of the parameter “RST-based satellite TIR anomalies” in relation with earthquake (M≥4) occurrence, in recent years we performed three long-term statistical correlation analyses on different seismically active areas, such as Greece (Eleftheriou et al., 2016), Italy (Genzano et al., 2020), and Japan (Genzano et al., 2021).</p><p>With this aim, by means of the RST (Robust Satellite Techniques; Tramutoli, 1998, 2007) approach we analysed ten-year time series of satellite images collected by the SEVIRI sensor (on board the MSG platforms) over Greece (2004-2013) and Italy (2004-2014), and by the JAMI and IMAGER sensors (on board the MTSAT satellites) over Japan (2005-2015).  By applying empirical spatial-temporal rules, which are established also taking account of the physical models up to now proposed to explain seismic TIR anomaly appearances, the performed long -term correlation analyses put in relief that a non-casual relation exists between satellite TIR anomalies and the occurrence of earthquakes.</p><p>At the same time, in the carried out studies we introduced and validated refinements and improvements to the RST approach, which are able to minimize the proliferation of the false positives (i.e. TIR anomalies independent from the seismic sources, but due to other causes such as meteorological factors).    </p><p>Here, we summarize the achieved results and discuss them from the perspective of a multi-parameter system, which could improve our present knowledge on the earthquake-related processes and increase our capacity to assess the seismic hazard in the medium-short term (months to days).</p><p> </p><p>References</p><p>Eleftheriou, A., C. Filizzola, N. Genzano, T. Lacava, M. Lisi, R. Paciello, N. Pergola, F. Vallianatos, and V. Tramutoli (2016), Long-Term RST Analysis of Anomalous TIR Sequences in Relation with Earthquakes Occurred in Greece in the Period 2004–2013, Pure Appl. Geophys., 173(1), 285–303, doi:10.1007/s00024-015-1116-8.</p><p>Genzano, N., C. Filizzola, M. Lisi, N. Pergola, and V. Tramutoli (2020), Toward the development of a multi parametric system for a short-term assessment of the seismic hazard in Italy, Ann. Geophys, 63, 5, PA550, doi:10.4401/ag-8227.</p><p>Genzano, N., C. Filizzola, K. Hattori, N. Pergola, and V. Tramutoli (2021), Statistical correlation analysis between thermal infrared anomalies observed from MTSATs and large earthquakes occurred in Japan (2005 - 2015), Journal of Geophysics Research – Solid Earth, doi: 10.1029/2020JB020108 (accepted).</p><p>Tramutoli, V. (1998), Robust AVHRR Techniques (RAT) for Environmental Monitoring: theory and applications, in Proceedings of SPIE, vol. 3496, edited by E. Zilioli, pp. 101–113, doi: 10.1117/12.332714</p><p>Tramutoli, V. (2007), Robust Satellite Techniques (RST) for Natural and Environmental Hazards Monitoring and Mitigation: Theory and Applications, in 2007 International Workshop on the Analysis of Multi-temporal Remote Sensing Images, pp. 1–6, IEEE. doi: 10.1109/MULTITEMP.2007.4293057</p>

scholarly journals Back Analysis of Short-Term Seismic Hazard Indicators of Larger Seismic Events in Deep Underground Mines (LKAB, Kiirunavaara Mine, Sweden)

2019 ◽  
Vol 177 (2) ◽  
pp. 763-785
Author(s):  
Emilia Nordström ◽  
Savka Dineva ◽  
Erling Nordlund
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Back Analysis ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Source Area ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Underground Mines ◽  
Seismic Events ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Deep Underground

Abstract Back analysis for evaluation of the merits of the short-term seismic hazard indicators (precursors) used in the mines and their potential application for early warning was carried out for fourteen seismic events that potentially caused damage in Kiirunavaara Mine, Sweden, selected according to our designed criteria. Five short-term hazard indicators: Seismic Activity Rate (SAR), Cumulative Seismic Moment (CSM), Energy Index (EI), Cumulative Apparent Volume (CAV) and Seismic Apparent Stress Frequency (ASF) were tested. The behaviour of the indicators was studied using the parameters of all seismic events within a sphere around the hypocenter location of the analyzed seismic source within one month before the main (damaging) event. The size of the sphere equals the estimated radius of the analyzed seismic source (area of inelastic deformation). mXrap software (Australian Centre for Geomechanics) was used for data visualization, manipulation, analysis and extraction. The results from the main analysis showed a good agreement between the expected and actual behaviour of the SAR, CSM and CAV indicators. In overall, CSM and CAV ranked the highest positive/expected behaviour followed by SAR (Table 3). The EI and ASF ranked lowest and showed to be sensitive to the number of events within the source sphere. The rate of false warnings and missed warnings was also investigated for the 25 days-long period before the damaging events. A similar trend was observed as for the main analysed event. The results from this study can be used for further improvement of the short-term hazard estimations and early warning system in deep underground mines.

scholarly journals The study of dissolved helium and radon concentrations in groundwaters of Southern Pribaikalie in connection with seismic processes

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-74
Author(s):  
R. M. Semenov ◽  
M. N. Lopatin ◽  
V. V. Chechelnitsky
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Events ◽  
Seismic Process ◽  
Observation Site ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Helium Concentration ◽  
Site Energy ◽  
Sufficient Energy ◽  
Irkutsk Region ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Radon Concentrations

It is known that changes in geochemical fields may be due to the formation and development of earthquake foci. Hydrogeochemical fields at observation sites can be disturbed by underground shocks of sufficient energy, which occur at specific epicentral distances. Our study aimed to reveal these relationships by analysing the concentrations of helium and radon in groundwaters of Southern Pribaikalie, the area around Lake Baikal in Russia. Water samples were taken daily at 10 a.m. from artesian well No. 3 in Zeleny Mys, Irkutsk region. After water sparging, radon concentrations were measured by beta-detection Camera-01 and INGEM-1 (magnetic discharge indicator of helium) to determine helium concentrations. We analysed the concentration values in connection with 22 seismic events that occurred from 2010 to 2016 at the hydrogeochemical observation site (energy classes K of 10.4–14.5; epicentral distances of 40–750 km; conditional energy of K’>6). Based on the radon and helium concentration diagrams, specific regularities were established in the concentration variations before the earthquakes. Generally, concentration variations (increasing/decreasing) in excess of 1.5–2.0 standard deviations preceded earthquakes. This article presents the study results and discusses variations in the radon and helium concentrations, which are due to the seismic process and can be considered as a short-term precursor of earthquakes.

scholarly journals Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and its application to Hualien City, Taiwan

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1143-1158 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.-H. Chan ◽  
Y.-M. Wu ◽  
C.-T. Cheng ◽  
P.-S. Lin ◽  
Y.-C. Wu
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazards ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Seismicity Rate

Abstract. Here, we propose a time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and apply it to Hualien City, Taiwan. A declustering catalog from 1940 to 2005 was used to build up a long-term seismicity rate model using a smoothing Kernel function. We also evaluated short-term seismicity rate perturbations according to the rate-and-state friction model, and the Coulomb stress changes imparted by earthquakes from 2006 to 2010. We assessed both long-term and short-term probabilistic seismic hazards by considering ground motion prediction equations for crustal and subduction earthquakes. The long-term seismic hazard in Hualien City gave a PGA (peak ground acceleration) of 0.46 g for the 2.1‰ annual exceedance probability. The result is similar to the levels determined in previous studies. Seismic hazards were significantly elevated following the 2007 ML =5.8 earthquake that occurred approximately 10 km from Hualien City. This work presents an assessment of a suitable mechanism for time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard determinations using an updated earthquake catalog. Using minor model assumptions, our approach provides a suitable basis for rapid re-evaluations and will benefit decision-makers and public officials regarding seismic hazard mitigation.

scholarly journals Recording and on-line analysis of the earthquakes at the National center of seismological data

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 193-204
Author(s):  
I. Yu. Gurova ◽  
T. A. Amashukeli ◽  
I. A. Kalitova
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Natural Phenomenon ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Seismic Process ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Seismological Data ◽  
Seismic Vibrations ◽  
On Line ◽  
Line Analysis

The research is dedicated to statistical analysis of such a powerful natural phenomenon as an earthquake and to the problems of monitoring the seismicity in the territory of Ukraine directly. According to evidences of century-old data, annual number and the strengths of earthquakes differ, however its growth is observed definitively. Such a trend needs more attentive attitude to manifestations of seismic activity and its results even within the platform parts of the territory of Ukraine. Examples of registering earthquakes observations of different intensity and remoteness by Ukrainian observation net have been made. Special consideration at the National center of seismological data has been given to seismic vibrations which appear and are fixed in the areas bordering Ukraine and within its territories directly. Essential background for elaboration and successful practical usage of  the medium-term and short-term methods of forecasting the approaching seismic catastrophe or dangerous development of the seismic process which has begun are observation and on-line processing of the earthquakes at the National center of seismological data with successive producing bulletins and catalogues.

Satellite thermal monitoring of Balkan region by means of Robust Satellite Techniques: the case of Albania (26 November 2019, Mw 6.4) earthquake

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valerio Tramutoli ◽  
Nicola Genzano ◽  
Roberto Colonna ◽  
Carolina Filizzola ◽  
Mariano Lisi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Statistical Correlation ◽  
Thermal Monitoring ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Satellite Sensors ◽  
Balkan Region ◽  
Casual Relation ◽  
The Impact

<p>Since 2001, Robust Satellite Techniques (RST; Tramutoli 1998, 2007) has been used to study - by analyzing long-term TIR observations provided by passive satellite sensors - the enhancement of the Earth thermally emitted radiation, possibly related to seismic activities.</p><p>Such an approach has demonstrated to be able (especially when applied to geostationary satellite radiances) to isolate TIR anomalies possibly related to earthquake occurrence from those expected as a consequence of others natural (e.g. meteorological) or observational (e.g. measurement time and/or place) sources. Among the others TIR anomalies, those more significant (in term of Signal/Noise ratio), extended (in space) and persistent (in time) have been considered (SSTAs, Significant Sequence of TIR Anomalies, Eleftheriou et al., 2016) for further analyses. Up to now, long-term statistical correlation analyses between seismic events and RST-based SSTAs carried out in different European seismic regions (i.e. Greece, Italy and Turkey by using MSG-SEVIRI) highlights that the 75% of SSTAs are in apparent space-time relation with earthquakes with magnitude greater than 4. In all testing regions/periods a non-casual relation has been found.</p><p>In this paper, we will show the results achieved by real-time thermal monitoring over Albania region at time of the strong earthquake of magnitude Mw 6.4 occurred on 26 November 2019. Moreover, we will discuss about the impact of the use of the "RST-based satellite TIR anomalies" parameter in the framework a multi-parametric system devote to the seismic hazard assessment in the short-term.</p>

Is money the creation of the state or the market? (On the “modern monetary theory” as described in the textbook by W. Mitchell, L. R. Wray and M. Watts “Macroeconomics”)

2020 ◽  
pp. 121-134
Author(s):  
S. A. Andryushin
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Full Employment ◽  
Term Effect ◽  
Scientific Concept ◽  
Monetary Theory ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Stimulation Of

In 2019, a textbook “Macroeconomics” was published in London, on the pages of which the authors presented a new monetary doctrine — Modern Monetary Theory, MMT, — an unorthodox concept based on the postulates of Post-Keynesianism, New Institutionalism, and the theory of Marxism. The attitude to this scientific concept in the scientific community is ambiguous. A smaller part of scientists actively support this doctrine, which is directly related to state monetary and fiscal stimulation of full employment, public debt servicing and economic growth. Others, the majority of economists, on the contrary, strongly criticize MMT, arguing that the new theory hides simple left-wing populism, designed for a temporary and short-term effect. This article considers the origins and the main provisions of MMT, its discussions with the mainstream, criticism of the basic tenets of MMT, and also assesses possible prospects for the development of MMT in the medium term.

scholarly journals Long-Term Data Traffic Forecasting for Network Dimensioning in LTE with Short Time Series

Electronics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1151
Author(s):  
Carolina Gijón ◽  
Matías Toril ◽  
Salvador Luna-Ramírez ◽  
María Luisa Marí-Altozano ◽  
José María Ruiz-Avilés
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Data Traffic ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Traffic Forecasting ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Radio Planning

Network dimensioning is a critical task in current mobile networks, as any failure in this process leads to degraded user experience or unnecessary upgrades of network resources. For this purpose, radio planning tools often predict monthly busy-hour data traffic to detect capacity bottlenecks in advance. Supervised Learning (SL) arises as a promising solution to improve predictions obtained with legacy approaches. Previous works have shown that deep learning outperforms classical time series analysis when predicting data traffic in cellular networks in the short term (seconds/minutes) and medium term (hours/days) from long historical data series. However, long-term forecasting (several months horizon) performed in radio planning tools relies on short and noisy time series, thus requiring a separate analysis. In this work, we present the first study comparing SL and time series analysis approaches to predict monthly busy-hour data traffic on a cell basis in a live LTE network. To this end, an extensive dataset is collected, comprising data traffic per cell for a whole country during 30 months. The considered methods include Random Forest, different Neural Networks, Support Vector Regression, Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average and Additive Holt–Winters. Results show that SL models outperform time series approaches, while reducing data storage capacity requirements. More importantly, unlike in short-term and medium-term traffic forecasting, non-deep SL approaches are competitive with deep learning while being more computationally efficient.

scholarly journals Multidimensional assessment of women after severe maternal morbidity: the COMMAG cohort study

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. e041138
Author(s):  
Elton C Ferreira ◽  
Maria Laura Costa ◽  
Rodolfo C Pacagnella ◽  
Carla Silveira ◽  
Carla B Andreucci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Sexual Function ◽  
Screening Test ◽  
Maternal Morbidity ◽  
Severe Maternal Morbidity ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Multidimensional Assessment ◽  
Index Pregnancy ◽  
Sf 36

ObjectivesTo perform a multidimensional assessment of women who experienced severe maternal morbidity (SMM) and its short-term and medium-term impact on the lives and health of women and their children.DesignA retrospective cohort study.SettingA tertiary maternity hospital from the southeast region of Brazil.ParticipantsThe exposed population was selected from intensive care unit admissions if presenting any diagnostic criteria for SMM. Controls were randomly selected among women without SMM admitted to the same maternity and same time of childbirth.Primary and secondary outcome variablesValidated tools were applied, addressing post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and quality of life (SF-36) by phone, and then general and reproductive health, functioning (WHO Disability Assessment Schedule), sexual function (Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI)), substance abuse (Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test 2.0) and growth/development (Denver Developmental Screening Test) of children born in the index pregnancy in a face-to-face interview.ResultsAll instruments were applied to 638 women (315 had SMM; 323 were controls, with the assessment of 264 and 307 children, respectively). SF-36 score was significantly lower in the SMM group, while PTSD score was similar between groups. Women who had SMM became more frequently sterile, had more abnormal clinical conditions after the index pregnancy and a higher score for altered functioning, while proportions of FSFI score or any drug use were similar between groups. Furthermore, children from the SMM group were more likely to have weight (threefold) and height (1.5 fold) for age deficits and also impaired development (1.5-fold).ConclusionSMM impairs some aspects of the lives of women and their children. The focus should be directed towards monitoring these women and their children after birth, ensuring accessibility to health services and reducing short-term and medium-term repercussions on physical, reproductive and psychosocial health.

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