scholarly journals IMPACT OF OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF PAKISTAN

2021 ◽  
pp. 11-21
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Development Assistance ◽  
Official Development Assistance ◽  
Foreign Assistance ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Adf Test

This research paper aims to find out the relationship between Official Development Assistance and sustainable development in Pakistan. Time series data was taken for the period of 42 years (1976 -2017). Sustainable Development is a dependent variable for which proxy variable of Adjusted Net Savings has been deployed. ODA (% of GNI), Inflation, Per Capita GDP and Trade (GDP %) have been used as explanatory variables. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test has been applied to examine the nature of the data as time series data may contain unit root problems. ADF test confirms mixed order of integration for the selected variables, hence Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach was applied to find out the long-run relationship among the considered variables. Estimation of Error Correction Regression resulted in a significant long-run relationship between ODA and Sustainable Development. ECM Regression also signifies the negative and significant value of the speed of adjustment term confirming that the model is stable and convergent towards the equilibrium. Overall results of this study confirm a positive and highly significant relationship between ODA and the measure of sustainable development in Pakistan. Therefore it is recommended that attention should be given to drawing on foreign assistance and it should be subject to the transparent and efficient practices applied in the Aid Allocation. It significantly improves the overall welfare of Pakistan.

scholarly journals Consequences of Capital formation, Trade Liberalization on the Economic Growth: Pakistan’s Experience

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Nadia Bukhari ◽  
Anjum Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Adf Test

This study considers the long run relationship between the liberalization of trade, capital formation and the economic growth of Pakistan by using the time series data from 1975-2013. The main aim of this study is to examine that how much liberalization of trade and capital formation affects the economic growth of Pakistan in long run. The approach that has been used for empirical analysis is Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Under the ADF test capital formation (CF) is stationary at its first level but the trade openness (TO) and GDP is stationary at its first difference. Moreover, the granger casualty test is evident that there become a casual relationship between the trade openness and GDP. The result of this study shows that both the trade openness and the capital formation determined the economic growth in long run and they both have statistically significant effect on the GDP. Furthermore it has has been depicted from the study that the trade has a vital role to influence the economic growth.

scholarly journals Impact of Human Capital Underutilization on Economic Growth: the Case of India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijaya Kumar M ◽  
Balu B
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
International Labor Organization ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Adf Test

Abstract This study investigated the effect of human capital underutilization on the economic growth of India. It has used time-series data accessed from the International Labor Organization (ILO) and World Bank database. This paper estimated the relationship between the underutilization of human capital on economic growth by applying the econometric tests like Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Test, Johansen Integration Test, and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results revealed that in the long run human capital underutilization has a negative relationship on GDP and labor productivity and it does not in the short run. The study recommends that specific policy legislations in the Indian labor markets are required for addressing the problem of human capital underutilization and thereby accelerating the economic growth and productivity for the current and future generations.

An Econometric Analysis of Markets for Pulses: A Case Study of Green Gram

2020 ◽  
pp. 559-564
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Green Gram ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Adf Test ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

Due to reduced crop area under pulses and ever-increasing domestic demand, India imports every year large chunks of a variety of pulses. The time series econometric analyses was used to estimate market integration, price transmission, and price volatility happening in the major domestic markets for one of the imported pulses namely green gram. The time-series data pertained to prices of a green gram for the major markets are sourced from 2006 to 2018 on a monthly frequency. Further, the vertical integration among the production and consumption markets were also studied using these analyses. In order to remove the non-stationarity element in the price series, the ADF test was used, which were non-stationary at levels but became stationary at the first difference. The price volatility prevailing in the green gram markets of India was estimated by GARCH (1,1) model revealed that all the markets were exhibiting consistent variability in market prices. Among these markets, there existed bi-directional causation which was confirmed by the Granger Causality test. The presence of three co-integration vectors for these markets proved the existence of a long-run equilibrium for green gram prices. Tamil Nadu market came under short-run equilibrium whereas remaining markets had long-run equilibrium estimated by VECM. Retail prices of Madurai market had bi-directional price influence with Tamil Nadu market. Hence it is suggested that better price discovery and timely market intelligence would be necessary to manage the price shocks occurring in the green gram markets in India.

scholarly journals Phillips Curve or Locus Critique: Time Series Evidence from Pakistan

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 190-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ihtisham Ul Haq ◽  
Alam Khan . ◽  
Ejaz Ahmed .
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Stationary Problem ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Significant Positive Association ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Adf Test

Some economic problems facing by any economy are addressed such that minimum levels of these are acceptable. Inflation and unemployment are among such macroeconomic issues of which certain minimum level of both are accepted by economists. Nature of relationship between unemployment and inflation is important in economic literature. This study was performed to find this nature for a developing country. Time series data on both variables was analyzed for Pakistan from 1974 to 2010. ADF test was applied for detection of non-stationary. Problem of non-stationary was detected when variables were at level, which was eliminated by taking variables at first difference. Johansen co-integration confirmed one cointegration vector, which suggested the presence of long run relation between variables. VECM was used to find short and long run estimates. A short run relation was witnessed when unemployment worked as dependent variable and inflation as explanatory variable. This model was in equilibrium and thirty five percent disequilibria were adjusted annually as ECT value suggested. Inflation had a significant positive association with unemployment in study period. This study supported the Locus critique as opposed to Phillips curve hypothesis. Policy makers should pay special attention to this relationship between inflation and unemployment when they are going to design macroeconomic policies for Pakistan’s economy.

FINANCIAL STABILITY AND THE ROLE OF ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL INTEGRATION IN SOUTH ASIA: EVIDENCE FROM TIME-SERIES DATA

2017 ◽  
Vol 65 (02) ◽  
pp. 303-333 ◽  
Author(s):  
SAMIA NASREEN ◽  
SOFIA ANWAR
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Stability Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

Using the aggregate financial stability index (AFSI) which measures the gradual progression and changes in financial market stability, this paper empirically evaluates the impact of financial and economic integration on financial stability in South Asian countries using time-series data for the period 1980–2012. Auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach to cointegration is applied to ensure long-run relationship between variables. Bound F-test results confirm the long-run relationship between selected variables. The estimated results show that economic and financial integration has exerted a significant negative effect on financial stability in long run.

scholarly journals The Impact of Infrastructure on Tourism: The Case of Sri Lanka

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 174 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. M. Mustafa
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test

This study examines the impact of infrastructure on tourism development in Sri Lanka with greater emphasis on road network. The time period used in this study are ranging from year 2005 to year 2017. The annual time series data are analyzed by using statistical package, E-Views 10 after the preliminary calculations by using Microsoft Excel. The unit root of the variables is tested by ADF test to test the stationarity of the time series data used in the model of this study. Co-integration is tested with the use of Engle–Granger. The relationship of causality between the variables is found by test of Granger Causality. The results show that infrastructure has significant short run as well long run positive impact on tourism. Two-way causal relationship is found between tourism sector and infrastructure. Further, this study recommends that the government should play its role in improving the infrastructure facilities to increase tourist’s arrival in Sri Lanka.

Macro-Economic Disequilibrium and Educational Development in Nigeria between 1980-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (08) ◽  
pp. 20592-21600
Author(s):  
Gbadebo Salako ◽  
Adejumo Musibau Ojo ◽  
Jaji Ayobami Francis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Educational Development ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stationarity Test ◽  
Level I

This study empirically investigates the effects of macroeconomic disequilibrium on educational development in Nigeria. The study employed time series data between 1980 and 2017. Autoregressive Distributed Lag method of estimation was employed. The result revealed that the variables stationarity test were mixed between the first difference I(I) and level I(0). The cointegration result shows that there exist long run relationship between the variables. The result revealed that Balance of payment, Poverty, Debt rate inflation and unemployment exhibited negative relationship with educational development. The estimation result showed that all explanatory variables account for 88% variation of educational development in Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that government should fast track policies that can stabilize inflation and exchange rate in the country. Also, Policies must be formulated to reduce poverty and unemployment.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Econometric Evidence from Malaysia

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 94-112
Author(s):  
Hassanudin Mohd Thas Thaker ◽  
Tan Siew Ee ◽  
Sushant Vaidik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Paper Cover ◽  
Econometric Evidence ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

The objective of this paper is to test the validity of the Export-led Growth Hypothesis (ELGH) in the Malaysian economy. Malaysia has always been considered to have attained its growth primarily through exports (Okposin, Bassey, Hamid, Halim, and Boon, 1999; Mun, 2008; Mahathir, 1990). In the past, several studies on this topic have been conducted but their analyses were limited to relationships using Bound-testing, Autoregressive –Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Toda Yamamoto analysis. Empirical data and analysis in our paper cover a 21 – year span and quarterly time-series data (1991:Q1 – 2012:Q4) are used to test this ELG hypothesis. Also, many dynamic econometric measures including the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillip – Perron (PP) unit root tests, Cointegration test as well as the Vector Error Correction model (VEC) for the long run have been applied. Based on these generic models, both real exports and capital stock (productivity) are found to have stimulated positive adjustments to economic growth in the long run whereas real exchange rate is found to have influenced economic growth negatively. Overall, our conclusion is that the ELG hypothesis seems applicable to Malaysia in the long run.

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