scholarly journals Phillips Curve or Locus Critique: Time Series Evidence from Pakistan

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 190-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ihtisham Ul Haq ◽  
Alam Khan . ◽  
Ejaz Ahmed .
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Stationary Problem ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Significant Positive Association ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Adf Test

Some economic problems facing by any economy are addressed such that minimum levels of these are acceptable. Inflation and unemployment are among such macroeconomic issues of which certain minimum level of both are accepted by economists. Nature of relationship between unemployment and inflation is important in economic literature. This study was performed to find this nature for a developing country. Time series data on both variables was analyzed for Pakistan from 1974 to 2010. ADF test was applied for detection of non-stationary. Problem of non-stationary was detected when variables were at level, which was eliminated by taking variables at first difference. Johansen co-integration confirmed one cointegration vector, which suggested the presence of long run relation between variables. VECM was used to find short and long run estimates. A short run relation was witnessed when unemployment worked as dependent variable and inflation as explanatory variable. This model was in equilibrium and thirty five percent disequilibria were adjusted annually as ECT value suggested. Inflation had a significant positive association with unemployment in study period. This study supported the Locus critique as opposed to Phillips curve hypothesis. Policy makers should pay special attention to this relationship between inflation and unemployment when they are going to design macroeconomic policies for Pakistan’s economy.

scholarly journals The Impact of Infrastructure on Tourism: The Case of Sri Lanka

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 174 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. M. Mustafa
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test

This study examines the impact of infrastructure on tourism development in Sri Lanka with greater emphasis on road network. The time period used in this study are ranging from year 2005 to year 2017. The annual time series data are analyzed by using statistical package, E-Views 10 after the preliminary calculations by using Microsoft Excel. The unit root of the variables is tested by ADF test to test the stationarity of the time series data used in the model of this study. Co-integration is tested with the use of Engle–Granger. The relationship of causality between the variables is found by test of Granger Causality. The results show that infrastructure has significant short run as well long run positive impact on tourism. Two-way causal relationship is found between tourism sector and infrastructure. Further, this study recommends that the government should play its role in improving the infrastructure facilities to increase tourist’s arrival in Sri Lanka.

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

Asset Quality and Deposit Money Banks Performance in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-47
Author(s):  
Mbatabbey Joy Ogboru
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Deposit Insurance ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bank Performance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asset Quality

This study investigate the relationship between asset quality and deposit money banks performance in Nigeria over a period of 30 years ranging from 1986 to 2016, utilizing time series data collected from the Nigeria deposit insurance corporation annual reports and accounts, CBN financial stability report and CBN statistically bulletin for various years. The variables of study includes return on asset (ROA) proxy for Deposit Money Bank performance in Nigeria, ratio of non-performing loan to total loan (NPL), ratio of liquid assets to total assets (LAT) and ratio of liquid assets to short term liabilities (LAS) as measures of asset quality. The study utilizes both the descriptive and econometric techniques to analyze the time series data. The result shows that there is a short run relationship between asset quality and deposit money bank performance in Nigeria. Also, the co-integration result reveals the presence of a long run relationship between asset quality and deposit money bank performance in Nigeria while the granger causality result shows evidence of causality between asset quality and deposit money bank performance in Nigeria. Based on this we conclude by saying that maintaining sound assets quality position is critical to the long term performance, survival and sustainability of DMBs in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Relationship between Crime and Economic Conditions in Sindh: A Time Series Approach from 1984-2015

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. p1
Author(s):  
Irfan Hussain Khan ◽  
Khan Alyas ◽  
Nighat Hanif ◽  
Ansa Zaiba
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formation ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Productive Capacity ◽  
Statistical Process ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Reported Crime

Using the time series data from 1984 to 2015, this study attempts to explore Sindh economic situation and the relationship between criminal activities. Three Variables are used for economic conditions, such as crime rate, dropout ratio and unemployment. We check their relationship with the reported crime. Enhanced Dicky Fuller test for unit root process indicates that all variables are stationary at the first level. For long-term relationships, Johanson-Cointegration technology has been applied. The results of the statistical process show that dropout ratio and unemployment are closely related to crime.VCM has been applied to check the short-run relationship between the variables. VCM results suggested that the model we estimate is divergent. Divergent model mean that there is no adjustment from long-run to short-run between variables as they are going away, if we increase the lag length, the model can become divergent but due to crime data unavailability it was difficult to increase the observations and the lags as well. Study gives evidence that economic conditions have significant impact on crimes and increasing dropout which is Positive related with crime in Sindh. It is also shown that the crime is influenced by economic condition. Government is capable to reduce that threat through effective target policies and legislation. The empirical results of this study will enhance understanding of the role of public sector policy formation in promoting national productive capacity by uplifting the positive effect of the Sindh economy.

scholarly journals An ECM Approach for Long Run Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate and Output Growth: Evidence from Bangladesh

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khnd Md Mostafa Kamal
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Currency exchange rate is an important aspect in modern economy which indicates the strength of domestic currency with respect to international currency. This study uses 42 years’ (1972 to 2013) time series data for Bangladesh in order to empirically determine whether the real exchange rate has significant impact on output growth for Bangladesh by using error correction model (ECM).The time series econometrics properties of the data series have been thoroughly investigated to apply ECM approach. The empirical evidence suggests mixed results; in the short run low exchange rate has positive significant effect while in the long run output growth is positively affected high exchange rate pass through.Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 63(2):105-110, 2015 (July)

scholarly journals Infrastructural Investments and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ayub ◽  
Rabia Rasheed ◽  
Rashid Ahmad ◽  
Furrukh Bashir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Water Projects ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
The Public ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Adf Test

Purpose: The goal of this study is to make an attempt to find out the relationships between infrastructural investments and economic growth. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study employs time series data over the years from 1972 to 2020. To observe the long-run and short-run impact of infrastructural investments on economic growth, an ARDL modeling approach to co- integration is used that is most suitable technique over some other techniques of integration after inspecting the stationary level of data via ADF test. Findings: The findings of the study indicate that Investments on Railways, Roads, Gas Projects, Telecommunication, Water Projects and Power Projects appear as efficient factors for enhancing economic growth of Pakistan in the long run. Implications/Originality/Value: It is suggested that government should increase the public and private investment for development of Railways, Roads, Telecommunication and Water projects in Pakistan.

scholarly journals Impact of Price and Price Variability on Acreage Allocation in Rice and Wheat Production in Bangladesh

2012 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-30
Author(s):  
Basanta Kumar Barmon ◽  
Muntasir Chaudhury
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Wheat Crop ◽  
Price Variability ◽  
Wheat Production ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The present study was conducted to estimate the impacts of price and price variability on acreage allocation of rice and wheat production in Bangladesh. Time series data of price and acreage allocation of rice and wheat production during 1983-84 to 2007-08, collected from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) were used in this study. Compound growth rate and Nerlovian models were used. The study indicated that the wholesale price of rice and wheat had significant impact on the allocation of land for rice and wheat production. Significant price variability was found both in case of rice and wheat crop in short-run (SR) and long-run (LR). The values of Nerlovian coefficients of adjustment were found low, which means that although the farmers were adjusting to the changing levels of price, price variability, yield, etc the adjustment was not rapid. Therefore, it may be concluded that the price of rice and wheat should be adjusted rapidly along with allocation of rice and wheat production in Bangladesh.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/agric.v10i1.11061The Agriculturists 2012; 10(1): 23-30

An Econometric Analysis of Markets for Pulses: A Case Study of Green Gram

2020 ◽  
pp. 559-564
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Green Gram ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Adf Test ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

Due to reduced crop area under pulses and ever-increasing domestic demand, India imports every year large chunks of a variety of pulses. The time series econometric analyses was used to estimate market integration, price transmission, and price volatility happening in the major domestic markets for one of the imported pulses namely green gram. The time-series data pertained to prices of a green gram for the major markets are sourced from 2006 to 2018 on a monthly frequency. Further, the vertical integration among the production and consumption markets were also studied using these analyses. In order to remove the non-stationarity element in the price series, the ADF test was used, which were non-stationary at levels but became stationary at the first difference. The price volatility prevailing in the green gram markets of India was estimated by GARCH (1,1) model revealed that all the markets were exhibiting consistent variability in market prices. Among these markets, there existed bi-directional causation which was confirmed by the Granger Causality test. The presence of three co-integration vectors for these markets proved the existence of a long-run equilibrium for green gram prices. Tamil Nadu market came under short-run equilibrium whereas remaining markets had long-run equilibrium estimated by VECM. Retail prices of Madurai market had bi-directional price influence with Tamil Nadu market. Hence it is suggested that better price discovery and timely market intelligence would be necessary to manage the price shocks occurring in the green gram markets in India.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF PAKISTAN

2021 ◽  
pp. 11-21
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Development Assistance ◽  
Official Development Assistance ◽  
Foreign Assistance ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Adf Test

This research paper aims to find out the relationship between Official Development Assistance and sustainable development in Pakistan. Time series data was taken for the period of 42 years (1976 -2017). Sustainable Development is a dependent variable for which proxy variable of Adjusted Net Savings has been deployed. ODA (% of GNI), Inflation, Per Capita GDP and Trade (GDP %) have been used as explanatory variables. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test has been applied to examine the nature of the data as time series data may contain unit root problems. ADF test confirms mixed order of integration for the selected variables, hence Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach was applied to find out the long-run relationship among the considered variables. Estimation of Error Correction Regression resulted in a significant long-run relationship between ODA and Sustainable Development. ECM Regression also signifies the negative and significant value of the speed of adjustment term confirming that the model is stable and convergent towards the equilibrium. Overall results of this study confirm a positive and highly significant relationship between ODA and the measure of sustainable development in Pakistan. Therefore it is recommended that attention should be given to drawing on foreign assistance and it should be subject to the transparent and efficient practices applied in the Aid Allocation. It significantly improves the overall welfare of Pakistan.

scholarly journals Do banking sector reforms cause economic growth?: Empirical evidence from Africa’s largest economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 553-564
Author(s):  
Andy Titus Okwu ◽  
Olusola Babatunde Falaiye ◽  
Rowland Tochukwu Obiakor ◽  
Ajibola Joseph Olusegun
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Reform Strategies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
And Control

This paper employed time series data on relevant empirical diagnostics to examine banking sector growth-led nexus within the context of Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria. Diagnostics established stationarity of banking sector indicators and control variables at first difference. Findings showed no causal relationships between banking sector reforms and economic growth in the short-run and that, though liberalisation in particular did not Granger-cause growth of the economy during the study period, banking sector reforms caused growth of the real sector of the Nigerian economy. Hence, the caveat was that long-run growth effects of banking sector reforms on real sectors of economies are functions of policy targets of such banking or financial sectors reform strategies. Consequently, articulation of banking and financial sectors reforms within long-run rather than short-run perspectives and complementarity of liberalisation were recommended.

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