A RESEARCH ON THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INVESTMENT PREFERENCES

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (16) ◽  
pp. 36-46
Author(s):  
Elif YÜCEL
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Index Value ◽  
Macro Variables ◽  
Investment Choices

This study aims to measure the causal relationship between the dollar and euro at exchange rates among today's investment instruments and the deposit interest rate, Gold, Bist xu100 and the index of government domestic debt securities.Dec. Dec. The data in the study are daily data between 17/08/2017-26/05/2021 and were selected from a recent time Dec. Data with CBRT evds resources investing.com retrieved from. In this way, it is possible to see how variables adapt to today's financial world and the pandemic period. The method of the study is the Granger causality test, which is often used in time series analysis. When individuals make investment choices, they choose according to the fact that macro variables such as inflation, growth rate, and Exchange Rates fluctuate during periods of crisis and recession. This often affects even the credit demands of institutional investors. Central banks want to influence macro variables with various intervention tools, but because the economies of some countries are fragile, individuals can often suffer even as a result of these optimistic policies. According to the results of this study, the dependent variable in the model where the BIST100 index of the dollar and gold values, the probability of 0.000<0.05 causal relationship is true of dollars for deposit in the model where the dependent variable is the interest rate of government securities of the index, the probability value of 0.0001 p<0.05 and Bist100 index 0.0162 probability value<0.05 and the probability for the value of the dollar 0.02<0.05 can be considered to be a causal relationship due to being towards deposit rates. The probability of the dependent variable in a model of the euro BIST100 index value 0.0001 p<0.05, gold probability value of 0.000<0.05 Euros causal relationship is true for government securities in another model where the dependent variable of 0.0040 p<0.05 probability value from deposits with interest ,0.0000 p<0.05 0.0043 Bist100 index and the probability value p<0.05 is the probability for the value of government securities under de towards causality can be said. In a model in which the Bist100 index is a dependent variable, there was a causal relationship towards the Bist100 index ,as the probability value of the euro was 0.0012<0.05, the probability value of gold was 0.0000<0.05, the probability value of government domestic debt securities was 0.0013<0.05, and the probability value of the dollar was 0.0007<0.05. Finally, the model in which gold is a dependent variable concluded that there is no causal relationship between the Euro, dollar, dibs and Bist100 index and deposit interest to gold, since the probability values of other variables are greater than 0.05.

scholarly journals The impact of interest rate corridor on monetary policy efficiency: VEC Granger causality evidence from the central bank of the Republic of Turkey

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 75-78
Author(s):  
Yilmaz et al. ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Index Value ◽  
The Impact

This paper aimed to analyze the impacts of interest rate corridor policy on monetary efficiency in Turkey, applying the Error Correction Model and VEC Granger causality. The data set consisted of 108 observations for each time series from May 2010 to December 2019. The Granger causality test results indicated a significant impact of the borrowing rate on the inflation rate. Response function revealed that a change in the borrowing interest rate affected the opposite way in the inflation rate with a 3-month lag. An increase in the lending rate caused an increase in the BIST 100 index value. It is concluded that the interest rate corridor implementation successfully increased the flexibility and effectiveness of the monetary policy in Turkey.

Financial ETNs and Certificates on Nordic Power Contracts

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Futures Contract ◽  
Retail Investors ◽  
Daily Change ◽  
Exchange Traded Notes ◽  
The Interest Rate

This article presents the first description and analysis of the exchange-traded notes (ETNs) and certificates tracking the Nordic power futures market that enable retail investors to hedge and trade on the Oslo and Stockholm Nordic stock exchanges. We investigate the impacts of the underlying front-quarter futures contract, its daily change, the roll cost, the EUR/NOK and EUR/SEK exchange rates, and the interest rate level and fees on the ETNs and certificates. An analysis of the ETNs and certificates on the Nordic stock exchanges from December 2010 to February 2015 shows continual investment activity, even though prices were in a consistent downtrend during the period. We conclude with a description of some strategies which retail investors can use.

scholarly journals Does E-Money Affect Inflation In Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Andres Dharma Nurhalim
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Quantitative Approach ◽  
Electronic Money ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Main Factors ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Main Components

The purpose of this study aims to explain the effect of electronic money on inflation and how much influence it has on the Indonesian economy. In this study the authors used a quantitative approach. The variables used are inflation, electronic money, exchange rate, money supply (M1), and BI interest rate. Result: The previous money supply (LQMprev) and the interest rate (BI Rate) were the main factors affecting inflation. In this result, e-money and exchange rates are not the main components driving inflation. Based on SPPS processing using regression, e-money and exchange rates do not have a significant effect on inflation in Indonesia, but LQMprev has a significant effect on inflation. From the results of this study it is still too early to analyze the effect of e-money on inflation because it is still relatively new in Indonesia.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga, Inflasi Dan Nilai Kurs Terhadap Harga Saham Perusahaan Perhotelan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Per Triwulannya Periode 2016-2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 871-877
Author(s):  
Rahmat Dewa Bagas Nugraha ◽  
H.M Nursito
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Quantitative Study ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Ratio Analysis ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study aims to determine and analyze the factors that affect stock prices through appropriate ratio analysis. As for the ratio of interest rates, inflation and exchange rates. Researchers want to know and analyze the effect partially or simultaneously between interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates on stock prices. This research is a quantitative study using secondary data. The object of this research is hotel companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2016-2018. The sample used in this study were 3 hotel with certain characteristics. The results of research simultaneously using the F test show that there is no influence between interest rates, inflation and exchange rates on stock prices because the calculated value is smaller than the table. Partially with the t test it can be concluded that there is no influence between interest rates on stock prices because the tcount value in the interest rate variable is smaller than the t table. Likewise, the t calculation of inflation and the exchange rate is smaller than the t table, so that there is no partial effect of the two variables on stock prices. Keywords: Stock Prices, Interest Rates, Inflation and Exchange Rates

Does the slope of the yield curve of the interbank market influence prices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange? A sectoral perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (4) ◽  
pp. 294-307
Author(s):  
Ewa Majerowska ◽  
Jacek Bednarz
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Rate Curve ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Warsaw Stock Exchange ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Relationship Of

The interest rate curve is often viewed as the leading indicator of economic prosperity in a broad sense. This paper studies the ability of the slope of the yield curve in the term structure of interest rates to impact the sectoral indices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, using daily data covering the period from 1 January 2001 to 30 September 2020. The results of the research indicate an ambiguous dependence of the logarithmic rates of return of sub-indices on the change of the interbank interest rate curve. The only sectors showing a clear relationship of this type is energy and pharmaceuticals.

scholarly journals ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PENYALURAN PENGARUH TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA, NISBAH BAGI HASIL DEPOSITOMUDHARABAH, DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI TERHADAPPERTUMBUHAN DEPOSITO MUDHARABAH DI BANK SYARIAH MANDIRI PERIODE 2006:01-2011:12

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 73
Author(s):  
Iqra Aulia
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Dynamic Impact ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Var Analysis ◽  
Disturbance Factor ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Auto Regression

<p>Vector Auto Regression (VAR) is an analysis or statistic method which can be used to predict time series variable and to analyst dynamic impact of disturbance factor in the variable system. In addition, VAR analysis is very usefull to assess the interrelationship between economics variable. This research through the following test phases: unit root test, optimal lag test, granger causality test, and form a vector auto regression model (VAR). The data used in this research is interest rate (i), profit low sharing of mudharabah deposits (nBH), economic growth (gGDP, growth of mudharabah deposits volume (gVM) in the period 2006:01-2011:12. The effectiveness was measured by two indicators. This study used secondary data issued by Syariah Mandiri Bank &amp; Bank Indonesia. The result of the study shows that response velocity of variable in growth of mudharabah deposits volume (gVM) towards shock instrument of interest rate(i) until reach the final target about 4 months. Thus we can conclude that growth of mudharabah deosits volume through Interest Rate is not effective in Indonesia period of 2006:01-2011:12. Keyword: Vector Auto Regression (VAR), growth of mudharabah deposits volume (gVM), The Interest Rate.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of Interest Rate on Household Consumption in Tanzania

2021 ◽  
pp. 44-62
Author(s):  
Daud Mkali Fadhil ◽  
Naifin A. Rajab
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test

This study seeks to determine the exact impact of interest rate on household consumption in Tanzania and identify the direction of causality between the variables. Although there have been few studies which explore the issue of interest rate and consumption, their method, time scope and geographical location has been different. This study aim to examine the relationship between interest rate on deposit and household expenditure in Tanzania using the annual time series data from the period 1990–2017 and employing Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) and Granger causality test for testing causal relationship between  the variables. The result revealed that there is a negative relationship between interest rate on deposit and consumption for the Tanzania. Additionally, it is observed from the estimate results that interest rate had an insignificant effect on consumption. Furthermore, the granger causality test results have shown that there is bidirectional causal relationship between interest rate and consumption. Furthermore, the result also shows that income and consumption are positively related and statistical significant at 5%. In addition, the findings supported Keynesian's Absolute Income hypothesis which emphasis consumption being a positive function of disposable income. The study recommends that there is the need for government to take urgent steps to implement policies like poverty reduction strategies, agriculture policy and Five Years Development Plans in order to improve the income base of most of households.

The interest-rate management and sterilization hypotheses for the UK: under fixed exchange rates

1991 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 821-838
Author(s):  
Daniel Wai-Wah Cheung ◽  
Subhash Sharma ◽  
Paul Trescott
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Fixed Exchange Rates ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Uk

THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INSURANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1986-2010)

2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (12) ◽  
pp. 49-57
Author(s):  
TAIWO AKINLO
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study examined the causal relationship between insurance and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1986-2010. The Vector Error Correction model (VECM) was adopted. The cointegration test shows that GDP, premium, inflation and interest rate are cointegrated when GDP is the edogeneous variable. The granger causality test reveals that there is no causality between economic growth and premium in short run while premum, inflation and interest rate Granger cause GDP in the long run which means there is unidirectional causality running from premium, inflation and interest rate to GDP. This means insurance contributes to economic growth in Nigeria as they provide the necessary long-term fund for investment and absolving risks.

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