ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PENYALURAN PENGARUH TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA, NISBAH BAGI HASIL DEPOSITOMUDHARABAH, DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI TERHADAPPERTUMBUHAN DEPOSITO MUDHARABAH DI BANK SYARIAH MANDIRI PERIODE 2006:01-2011:12

Indicators of macroeconomic have major impact on capital markets in general and stocks in particular. Influence of these indicators can be positive or negative. Vector Auto Regression (VAR) is a method of analysis used to predict the time series variable and analyze the dynamic impact factor interference in a system variable. VAR analysis is very useful to assess the linkages between economic variables. This research aims to see the influence of iIndicators of macroeconomic such as the exchange rate (EXCHANGE), interest rate Bank Central of Indonesia Certificates (SBI) and rate of inflation (INFLATION) to market return (REIHSG) in Indonesian Stock Exchange in the period 2004:1-2011:10. Data obtained from the Monthly Stock Price Index Statistics JSX. This research appllying several stages of testing as follows: unit root test, the optimal lag test, Granger causality test and Vector Auto Regression model (VAR). The results of unit root test in this study suggests that the data used for processing in the first degree and VAR Granger test because only the stationary stock index return variable in zero degree (level). On the test results suggested the optimal lag is the lag 3. On the Granger causality test is known that the Granger test variable rate (EXCHANGE) has a one-way impact or the exchange rate (EXCHANGE) affect market return (REIHSG) interest rate of Bank Central of Indonesia Certificates (SBI) and the rate of inflation (INFLATION) has a two direction or impact mutual Causality. These results indicate that there is a weak Granger causality between interest rates Bank Central of Indonesia Certificates (SBI) and rate of inflation (INFLATION) to market return (REIHSG). Keywords: Vector Auto Regressive (VAR), Macroeconomic, Granger Causality, IHSG stock return

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ANALISIS STRATEGI PEMANFAATAN LIMBAH TANAMAN PANGAN SEBAGAI PAKAN RUMINANSIA DI SULAWESI SELATAN

Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan ◽

10.23917/jep.v10i2.800 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 199

Author(s):

Jasmal A. Syamsu ◽

Agustina Abdullah

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Public Expenditure ◽

Unit Root Test ◽

Causality Test ◽

South Sulawesi ◽

Disturbance Factor ◽

Test Of Hypothesis ◽

Vector Auto Regression ◽

Optimum Model ◽

Auto Regression

Vector Auto Regression (VAR) is an analysis or statistic method which can be used to predict time series variable and to analyst dynamic impact of disturbance factor in the variable system. In addition, VAR analysis is very useful to assess the interrelationship between economic variables. This research through the following test phases: unit root test, test of hypothesis, Granger causality test, and form a vector autoregresion model (VAR). The data used in this research is the GDP data and budget data of South Sulawesi in the period 1985-2004. The research aims to analyze the interrelationship between public expenditure and economic growth in South Sulawesi. The result showed statistically significant in economic growth (PDRB) influence public expenditure (APBD), however, not vice versa. Otherwise, for the need of APBD prediction, the used of lag 4 was the optimum model based on the causal relationship to PDRB.

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EFEKTIFITAS MEKANISME TRANSMISI KEBIJAKAN MONETER PADA JALUR SUKU BUNGA PERIODE 2005:07-2010:06

Media Ekonomi ◽

10.25105/me.v19i1.836 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 19 (1) ◽

pp. 89

Author(s):

Muhammad Alfian

Keyword(s):

Monetary Policy ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Granger Causality ◽

Time Lag ◽

Rate Data ◽

Monetary Aggregate ◽

Disturbance Factor ◽

Vector Auto Regression ◽

Auto Regression ◽

Interest Rate Channel

Vector Auto Regression (VAR) is an analysis or statistic method which can be used to predict time series variable and to analyst dynamic impact of disturbance factor in the variable system. In addition, VAR analysis is very usefull to assess the interrelationship between economics variable. This research through the following test phases: unit root test, optimal lag test, granger causality test, and form a vector auto regression model (VAR). The data used in this research is the Bank Indonesia Certificate rate data (SBI), interbank offered rate data (PUAB), deposit rate data (DEP), loan rate data (KDRT) and credit aggregate data (AGKDRT) of Indonesia in the period 2005:07-2010:06. The effectiveness was measured by two indicators. They are: (1). how fast or how many time lag needed since the shock of monetary instruments (rSBI) until the realisation of intermediary target of monetary policy (monetary aggregate). (2). How strong the variables of Interest Rate Channel response the shock of SBI interest rate and other variable. This study used secondary data issued by Bank Indonesia. The result of the study shows that response velocity of variable in Interest Rate Channel towards shock instrument of monetary policy (SBI) until reach the final target about 4 months. While impulse response function of variables in this channel to the shock instrument of monetary policy (SBI) is quiet weak and the main variable in interest rate money market among bank (PUAB) able to explain diversity intermediary target of monetary policy (Monetary Aggregate) about 2,82%. This result once shows a weak Granger causality and predictive power between PUAB as the operational target with monetary aggregate as the intermediary target of monetary policy. Thus we can conclude that mechanism of monetary policy transmission through Interest Rate Channel is not effective to reach the intermediary target of monetary policy of Indonesia period of 2005:072010:06. Keyword: Vector Auto Regression (VAR), The Monetary Transmission Mechanism (MTKM), The Interest Rate Channel.

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ANALISIS VECTOR AUTO REGRESSIVE (VAR) TERHADAP KORELASI ANTARA BELANJA PUBLIK DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI SULAWESI SELATAN, TAHUN 1985-2005

Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan ◽

10.23917/jep.v10i1.805 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 1 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Abustan Abustan ◽

Mahyuddin Mahyuddin

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Public Expenditure ◽

Unit Root Test ◽

Causality Test ◽

South Sulawesi ◽

Disturbance Factor ◽

Test Of Hypothesis ◽

Auto Regressive ◽

Optimum Model ◽

Auto Regression

Vector Auto Regression (VAR) is an analysis or statistic method which can be used to predict time series variable and to analyst dynamic impact of disturbance factor in the variable system. In addition, VAR analysis is very useful to assess the interrelationship between economic variables. This research through the following test phases: unit root test, test of hypothesis, Granger causality test, and form a vector autoregresion model (VAR). The data used in this research is the GDP data and budget data of South Sulawesi in the period 1985-2004. The research aims to analyze the interrelationship between public expenditure and economic growth in South Sulawesi. The result showed statistically significant in economic growth (PDRB) influence public expenditure (APBD), however, not vice versa. Otherwise, for the need of APBD prediction, the used of lag 4 was the optimum model based on the causal relationship to PDRB.

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HUBUNGAN KAUSALITAS INVESTASI DENGAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

Signifikan Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi ◽

10.15408/sjie.v2i1.2370 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Fitri Amalia

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Gross Domestic Product ◽

Private Sector ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Domestic Product ◽

Government Investment ◽

Causality Test ◽

Know How ◽

Vector Auto Regression ◽

Auto Regression

This research aim to know how the relation of causality between investment, in this case governmental investment and investment of private sector with growth of Indonesia. Data applied is data time series during 36 years and is secondary data. There are some variable applied in this research, that is: growth of chartered investment counsel proxy with value GDP, investment of government proxy with disbursement of government, investment of foreign private sector (PMA) and investment of domestic private sector (PMDN). Method applied analyst to the relation of causality is with approach of model Vector Auto Regression (VAR). To test there are no of the relation of causal between variable is applied [by] causality test Granger. Result of testing of Granger indicates that there are three the relation of concurrent. Based on the result, hence chartered gross domestic product (GDP), governmental investment and investment of domestic private sector (PMDN) in significant influences investment of foreign private sector (PMA) and not happened on the contraryDOI: 10.15408/sjie.v2i1.2370

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KAUSALITAS PENANAMAN MODAL DALAM NEGERI, PENANAMAN MODAL ASING DAN PENYERAPAN TENAGA KERJA DI INDONESIA

Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Pembangunan ◽

10.24036/jkep.v2i1.8962 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 177

Author(s):

Mutia Ferina ◽

Ali Anis

Keyword(s):

Foreign Investment ◽

Descriptive Analysis ◽

Panel Cointegration ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Test Panel ◽

Domestic Investment ◽

Causality Test ◽

Vector Auto Regression ◽

Auto Regression ◽

Inductive Analysis

This study aims to determine and analyze the causality of Domestic Investment (PMDN), Foreign Investment (PMA), and Labor Absorption in Indonesia. This type of research is descriptive and associative research that is research that describes the research variables and find the presence or absence of causality between each of these variables. The type of data in this study are secondary data and panel data from 2013-2017 per Province in Indonesia. Analysis of the data used is descriptive analysis and inductive analysis. In inductive analysis there are several tests, namely: Analysis of Vector Auto Regression (VAR), Empirical Model Analysis of Vector Auto Regression (VAR), Steps of Analysis of Vector Auto Regression (VAR) such as: Root Unit Test (Panel Root Test), Coordination Test ( Panel Cointegration Test), Optimum Lag, Granger Causality Test, Stability Test, Implementation of Vector Auto Regression (VAR) Models. The results of this study indicate that (1) domestic investment and foreign investment are not qualified in Indonesia, (2) foreign investment and absorption of unsuspected workers in Indonesia, (3) domestic investment and absorption of qualified workers in Indonesia.

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ANALISIS KAUSALITAS FERTILITAS DENGAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN KEMISKINAN DI SUMATERA BARAT

Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Pembangunan ◽

10.24036/jkep.v2i3.10284 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Robby Saputra ◽

Sri Ulfa Sentosa

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Causal Relationship ◽

Direct Relationship ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Granger Causality Test ◽

Causality Test ◽

West Sumatra ◽

Causality Relationship ◽

Vector Auto Regression ◽

Auto Regression

Abstract: This study aims to determine the causal relationship between fertility, economic growth and poverty in West Sumatra. This type of research is descriptive and associative research. The data used are secondary data in the form of panel data from 2010 to 2017. The research methods used are: (1) Vector Auto Regression Analysis, (2) Granger Causality Test. The results showed that (1) There was no causality relationship between fertility and economic growth in West Sumatra, but there was a direct relationship between fertility and economic growth. (2) There is no causality relationship between fertility and poverty in West Sumatra, but there is a direct relationship between poverty and fertility. (3) There is no causal relationship between economic growth and poverty in West Sumatra, but there is a direct relationship between poverty and economic growth.Keywords: Fertility, Economic Growth, Poverty

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The Role of Monetary Policy using the Taylor´s Rule under High Level Indebtedness: The Brazilian Case

Archives of Business Research ◽

10.14738/abr.87.8590 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (7) ◽

pp. 134-142

Author(s):

MARCELO MELO ◽

WELIGTON GOMES

Keyword(s):

Interest Rate ◽

Central Bank ◽

Economic Activity ◽

Consumer Price Index ◽

Vector Auto Regression ◽

The Interest Rate ◽

High Level ◽

Outstanding Issue ◽

Auto Regression

This research investigated if the Central Bank of Brazil follows the Taylor´s rule under high indebtedness. Research data collected covered last 25 years from Dec/1995 until Feb/2020 from the Central Bank of Brazil and methodology applied was vector auto-regression (VECM) analysis with five macroeconomic variables as follows: Government net Debt to GDP (DEBT/GDP), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Exchange Rate (EXRATE), Consumer Price Index (IPCA) and Interest Rate (SELIC). Government´s indebtedness in relation to Brazilian GDP doubled from January/2014 up to Mar/2020, what make this research an outstanding issue. Conclusively the high-level debt environment interferes in the Central Bank of Brazil policy. Therefore, the Taylor´s rule is not being followed as it is expected for inflation rate targeting control. With respect economic activity monitoring the Central Bank of Brazil still applies the Taylor´s rule, increasing the interest rate in overheated economic activity periods.

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DETERMINAN INFLASI DI INDONESIA PERIODE 1980-2015

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis ◽

10.24123/jeb.v21i1.1631 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

pp. 1-7

Author(s):

Risna Risna

Keyword(s):

Interest Rate ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Money Supply ◽

Government Spending ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Quantitative Approach ◽

State Spending ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

The Interest Rate

This study aims to determine the effect of government spending, the money supply, the interest rate of Bank Indonesia against inflation.This study uses secondary data. Secondary data were obtained directly from the Central Bureau of Statistics and Bank Indonesia. It can be said that there are factors affecting inflationas government spending, money supply, and interest rates BI. The reseach uses a quantitative approach to methods of e-views in the data. The results of analysis of three variables show that state spending significantand positive impact on inflationin Indonesia, the money supply significantand negative to inflationin Indonesia, BI rate a significantand positive impact on inflation in Indonesia

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The Impact of Interest Rate Ceilings on Microfinance Industry

International Journal of Social Work ◽

10.5296/ijsw.v2i2.7953 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 10

Author(s):

Ali Saleh Alshebami ◽

D. M. Khandare

Keyword(s):

Interest Rate ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Low Income ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Research Subject ◽

Access To Credit ◽

The Poor ◽

Good Intention ◽

The Interest Rate ◽

The Impact

Imposing ceilings on the interest rate has recently become one of the new hottest topics in microfinance industry; various debates have been discussing this issue to know the effect of interest rate ceilings on the supply of credit in particular and on microfinance industry in general. However in spite of the good intention behind these ceilings, there was no absolute result stating that ceilings have really contributed to the improvement or protection of the poor clients, indeed, these ceilings have hurt those low income people instead of helping them, due to these ceilings most of MFIs left the market or reduced their scale due to the inability to continue operating with low interest rate leaving the very poor clients without access to credit. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to review the impact of imposing such ceilings on the interest rates and to find out what alterative solutions can be employed as substitutes for them. This paper is entirely based on the secondary data collected from various records related to microfinance such as microfinance books, official websites and reports, published papers, and other sources related to the research subject.

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