scholarly journals Impact of Exchange Rate and Oil Prices on Inflation in Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-185
Author(s):  
Tahira Bano Qasim ◽  
Hina Ali ◽  
Alina Baig ◽  
Maria Shams Khakwani
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Integration Testing ◽  
Integration Technique ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Unit Root Testing ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of Exchange Rate (Rupees Vs US $) and oil prices (Pak. Petroleum) and on the inflation rate in Pakistan by applying the Co-Integration technique to the monthly data for all the three series ranging from January 2004 to January 2019.  Unit root testing results provide strong statistical evidence for each of the series to be non-stationary at the level and stationary at first difference. Co-integration testing results confirm the existence of Cointegration among the selected time series.  Moreover, the empirical results of the regression of inflation on the exchange rate and oil price also lead to conclude that both the series have a strong statistical significant impact on inflation in Pakistan.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

scholarly journals The Impacts of Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and COVID-19 Pandemic on BIST Petrochemical Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-33
Author(s):  
Seval Mutlu Çamoğlu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Information Index ◽  
Market Index ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Index Exchange ◽  
Liberal Market Economy

Stock markets are developing with the economic growth of the countries in a liberal market economy. Petrochemicals is an indicator of the performance of the country's industry with high inter-industry linkage by providing input to several sectors, producing various outputs with a certain number of raw materials. The COVID-19 pandemic period has affected all markets worldwide and caused fluctuations in the index values of large firms in the petrochemical industry in Borsa Istanbul (BIST). This study analyzes the impact of the pandemic period and change in the oil prices and exchange rate on the petrochemical market in Turkey. The monthly data of petrochemical stock market index, exchange rate, oil prices are used in this time series analysis. A pandemic information index representing the COVID-19 pandemic was derived and included in the model. According to the results, it is observed that the most important determinant of the fluctuations on the BIST petrochemical index is the oil prices. While a shock in oil prices negatively affects the BIST petrochemical index, the petrochemical index responds positively to the shock in the pandemic index.

The Effect of Macroeconomic Conditions on the Performance of Vietnamese Stock Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 73-82
Author(s):  
Hien-Ly Pham ◽  
Ching-Chung Lin ◽  
Shih-Ju Chan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Global Supply Chain ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
The Impact

Vietnam plays an important role in the global supply chain. As one of important emerging markets, many studies have focused on Vietnam-related issues. Vietnam established two stock markets in 2000s. The market performance becomes one of interesting issues to explore. This study is to investigate the impact of macroeconomic variables, including inflation rate, exchange rate, interest rate, imports, exports, and gold price, on Ho Chi Minh stock market. The study period is from July 2000 to October 2014. Using the monthly data collected from Vietnam General Statistic Office, IMF International Financial Statistics, and Ho Chi Minh stock exchange, the empirical findings of our regression model show that there exists a positive relationship for imports and gold price, while the relationships for exchange rate and interest rate are negative. No significant relationship has been found for the variables of inflation rate and exports.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Impacts of Oil Price on Inflation: An Empirical Study of African OPEC Member Countries

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umar Bala ◽  
Lee Chin
Keyword(s):  
Food Production ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Dynamic Panels ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opec Member ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the asymmetric impacts of oil price changes on inflation in Algeria, Angola, Libya and Nigeria. Three different oil price data were applied in this study; the specific spot oil price of individual countries, the OPEC reference basket oil price and an average of the Brent, WTI and Dubai oil price. The dynamic panels ARDL were used to estimate the short and the long-run impacts. Also, this study partitioned the oil price into positive and negative changes to capture asymmetric impacts and found both positive and negative oil price changes positively influenced inflation. However, the impact was found to be more significant when oil prices dropped. The results from the study also found that money supply, the exchange rate and GDP are positively related to inflation while food production is negatively related to inflation. Accordingly, policymakers should be cautious in formulating policies between the positive and negative changes in oil prices as it was shown that inflation increased when the oil price dropped. Additionally, the use of contractionary monetary policy would help to reduce the inflation rate, and lastly, it is proposed that the government should encourage domestic food production both in quantity and quality to reduce inflation.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Harga Minyak Dunia, Nilai Tukar dan Inflasi terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 474-483
Author(s):  
Yaenal Arifin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Output ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

Harga minyak dunia dan nilai tukar merupakan variabel - variabel yang diserahkan dalam mekanisme pasar internasional. Guncangan pada keduanya dapat berdampak pada stabilitas perekonomian domestik. Kinerja perekonomian salah satunya dapat diukur dari laju pertumbuhan ouput riil negara tersebut. Harga minyak dan nilai tukar dapat secara langsung mempengaruhi tingkat ouput riil suatu negara maupun secara tidak langsung yaitu melalui jalur inflasi. Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh harga minyak dunia dan nilai tukar terhdap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia melalui mediasi inflasi. Metode analisis yang adalah analisis jalur (path analyze) dengan menggunakan data time series kuartal selama tahun 2005-2014. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan; secara parsial, harga minyak dunia berpengaruh positif (signifikan) dan nilai tukar berpengaruh positif (tidak signifikan) terhadap inflasi. Secara parsial harga minyak dunia berpengaruh positif (signifikan) , nilai tukar berpengaruh negatif (signifikan) dan inflasi  berpengaruh positif (signifikan) terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Inflasi dalam penelitian ini hanya memediasi pengaruh harga minyak dunia terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. World Oil prices and exchange rate are variables which controled by international market mechanism. Shocks on both can have an impact on the stability of the domestic economy. The economic performance measured in real output growth. Oil price and exchange rate directly affect a country's of real output growth  and indirectly is through inflation. This study aims to determine the impact of oil price shock and exchange rate volatility on Indonesia’s economic growth through inflation mediation. The method of analysis are using path analyze with quarterly time series data during the years 2005-2014. The result showed : partially, the oil price positively (significant) and positive  exchange rate effect (not significant)  on the inflation. Partially, world oil prices has a positive effect (significant), the exchange rate has a negative effect (significant) and the inflation has a positive effect (significant) to the economic growth. Inflation in this research just has a mediation the effect of world oil price to the economic growth.

Oil price and exchange rate nexus in Algeria: evidence from nonlinear asymmetric and frequency domain approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sidi Mohammed Chekouri ◽  
Abdelkader Sahed
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Frequency Domain ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to examine the relationship between exchange rate and oil prices in Algeria over the period 2004Q1–2019Q4. Design/methodology/approach The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag method is used to capture the potential asymmetric relationship among oil prices and the exchange rate. Frequency domain spectral Granger causality test is also applied to investigate the causal linkage between the two variables. The wavelet coherence is applied to analyze the evolution of this relationship both in time and frequency domains. Findings The empirical results reveal evidence of long-run asymmetric effects of oil price on Algeria’s real effective exchange rate (REER), implying that an increase in oil price causes a real exchange rate to appreciate, while a decrease in oil price leads to a real exchange rate to depreciate. More specifically, it is found that the impact of negative oil price shocks is higher than the one associated with positive shocks. The spectral Granger causality results further indicate that there is unidirectional causality running from oil price to REER in both medium and long run. The wavelet coherence findings provide evidence of some co-movement between the REER and oil price and point out that the oil price is leading real exchange rate in the medium and long terms. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature by investigating the asymmetric impact and the time domain causal linkage between oil price fluctuations and real exchange rate in Algeria.

scholarly journals Non-Linear Oil Price Dynamics: A Tale of Heterogeneous Speculators?

2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 270-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Reitz ◽  
Ulf Slopek
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Price Dynamics ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
West Texas ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Production Capacities ◽  
The Impact

Abstract While some of the recent surges in oil prices can be attributed to a robust global demand at a time of tight production capacities, commentators occasionally also blame the impact of speculators for part of the price pressure. We propose an empirical oil market model with heterogeneous speculators. Whereas trend-extrapolating chartists may tend to destabilize the market, fundamentalists exercise a stabilizing effect on the price dynamics. Using monthly data for West Texas Intermediate oil prices, our STR-GARCH estimates indicate that oil price cycles may indeed emerge due to the non-linear interplay between different trader types.

scholarly journals The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Oil-Dependent Countries’ Currencies: The Case of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 431
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Czech ◽  
Ibrahim Niftiyev
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The paper aims to assess the relationship between Azerbaijani and Kazakhstani exchange rates and crude oil prices volatility. The study applies the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The paper concentrates on Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, the post-Soviet countries considered as some of the most oil-dependent countries in the Caspian Sea region. The impulse response functions suggest that the rise of crude oil prices is associated with the exchange rates decrease and thus with an Azerbaijani manat and Kazakhstani tenge appreciation against the U.S. dollar. Moreover, the results suggest that an oil price increase leads to the rise of Azerbaijani international reserves. However, the results are insignificant for the Kazakhstani foreign exchange reserves. Additionally, the study reveals a negative and significant relationship between crude oil prices and USD/KZT in both pre-crisis and the COVID-19 crisis periods. We reveal that the correlation has been stronger during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the relationship is not significant in the case of the Azerbaijani manat. The USD/AZN exchange rate has been stable since 2017, and the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic has not caused a change in the exchange rate and a weakening of the Azerbaijani currency, despite significant drops in crude oil prices.

Exchange Rate of the Ruble: Status, Trends

Vestnik NSUEM ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 120-126
Author(s):  
Yu. S. Moroz
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The State ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Main Factors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Significant Factors

The purpose is to determine the state of the ruble exchange rate, to identify the main factors affecting changes in the Russian ruble exchange rate in modern conditions. The opinions of domestic authors on the factors affecting the ruble exchange rate (balance of payments, inflation, oil price, coronavirus pandemic, unemployment) are considered. Among the most significant factors affecting the ruble exchange rate is the price of oil. The article studies the dynamics of the impact on the national currency rate of oil prices. Conclusions are made.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price on Inflation in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
pp. 85-113
Author(s):  
Sani Bawa ◽  
Ismaila S. Abdullahi ◽  
Danlami Tukur ◽  
Sani I. Barda ◽  
Yusuf J. Adams
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Core Inflation ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Food Inflation

This study examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation in Nigeria. A NonLinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach was applied on quarterly data spanning 1999Q1 to 2018Q4. Results showed that oil price increases led to increase in headline, core and food measures of inflation in Nigeria. However, a decline in oil price resulted in a decline in the marginal cost of production and culminated in moderation of domestic inflation. Furthermore, negative oil price shocks led to higher inflation in Nigeria when exchange rate is dropped from the models, indicating that exchange rate absorbed the impact of oil price declines earlier, as lower oil prices culminated in lower external reserve, depreciation of the naira and ultimately higher inflationary pressures. Also, core inflation tends to respond more to oil price increases than food inflation. These results were robust to changes in econometric specifications and sample period. The study recommends that monetary policy actions of the Central Bank of Nigeria should focus on taming core inflation in periods of substantial oil price increases while strengthening its efforts at ensuring domestic sustainability in food production through its agricultural intervention programmes to further minimize the impact of international oil prices on food inflation. Similarly, the fiscal authorities should ensure that the fiscal stance is not excessively procyclical in periods of rising oil prices.

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