scholarly journals The Dynamic Iinterrelationships Between Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Jordan

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jumah Ahmad Alzyadat ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Tax Revenues

This study aims to answer the question: What is the nature of the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy in Jordan? Are the two policies complementary to each other, alternatives, or go in opposite directions?. This study applies the vector autoregression VAR, the Impulse Response Function test, the Granger Causality test, and the. Variance Decomposition Analysis. The results showed that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between government expenditures and money supply, as well as a bidirectional causal relationship between tax revenues and money supply, the main conclusion that the fiscal policy through the use of government expenditures and tax revenues and the monetary policy through the money supply go in the same direction, and complement each other, this is supported by the fact that the expansionary fiscal policy in Jordan during the study period was also accompanied by an expansionary monetary policy. The monetary authority sets interest rates on loans and there is no significant role for fiscal policy instruments in influencing the interest rate in Jordan. The study recommends harmonization between the declared and implemented policy. Each authority should serve its goals with independence and complementarity between the two policies. In this case, coordination means preventing extremism in pursuing an expansionary or contractionary policy from this or that authority, what is required is that the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance agree on coordination, integration and balance between objectives.

scholarly journals Coordination or Dominance of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Egypt

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
Emad Omar Elhendawy
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Third ◽  
Relationship Of

This study investigates to what extent of coordination between the fiscal and monetary policies in Egypt in the period 1980-2017, it has been adopted in its methodology on the vector error correction and Granger causality test. It concludes that there is a significant relation between money supply and budget deficit on one hand and inflation on the other hand, and that fiscal policy is dominant in monetary policy, as a change of 10% of the budget deficit results in an increase in the inflation rate of 8.1%. As for the Granger causality test. Thus stresses the existence of causal relationship to one direction of inflation against both the budget deficit and the money supply, which affects the budget deficit in the second slowdown. Then it feeds the budget deficit and inflation in the third year, which in turn feeds the budget deficit in the fourth year and the causal relationship between inflation and money supply has concluded that there is a one-way causal relationship of money supply to inflation after four slows and then inflation affects the money supply from the fifth to the tenth slowdown. As for the relationship of the budget deficit to money supply, there may be a one-way causal relationship between the budget deficit and the money supply from the second to the tenth year, except the third year, which also confirms the dominance of fiscal policy on monetary policy in Egypt in the period under consideration.

scholarly journals Cyclical Fluctuation, Growth, and Stabilization: An Empirical Investigation of Dual Policy Objectives in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richmond Sam Quarm ◽  
Mohamed Osman Elamin Busharads
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle

In conventional economics, two types of macroeconomic policy i.e. fiscal policy and monetary policy are used to streamline the business cycle. This paper has examined the cyclical behavior of these variables over the business cycle of Bangladesh. The objective of this examination is to show whether policies (fiscal policy and monetary policy) in Bangladesh are taken with a motive to stabilize the economy or only to promote economic growth. In other words, it has examined whether the policies in Bangladesh are procyclical or countercyclical or acyclical. Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter has been used to separate the cyclical component of considered variables. Both correlation and regression-based analysis have provided that in Bangladesh government expenditure and interest rates behave procyclically, but money supply behaves acyclically over the business cycle. Besides, this paper has tried to identify the long-term as well as the short-term relationship between real GDP and the macroeconomic policy variables with the help of the Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), and block exogeneity Wald test. Through these analyses, this study has found that fiscal policy has a significant impact on GDP growth both in the short-run and long-run. In the case of monetary policy, although the interest rate has an impact on real output both in the short-run and long-run, the money supply has neither a short-run nor long-run effect on output growth.

scholarly journals Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy and Price Volatility: Evidence from an Emerging Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-70
Author(s):  
Le Thanh Tung
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Vietnam is an Asian emerging country, which now is ranked in the group of the fastest-gro- wing economies worldwide. However, this economy has faced galloping inflation in recent years. So the Vietnamese experience is a valuable reference for the policymakers in the developing world in order to successfully control price volatility. Our study applies the Vector autoregressive method, the Johansen cointegration test, and the Granger causality test to examine the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on price volatility in Vietnam with a quarterly data sample collected over the period from 2004 to 2018. The study results confirm the existence of a long-term cointegration relationship between these policies and price volatility in Vietnam. Besides, the variance decomposition and impulse response function also show that the impact of these policies on inflation is clear, however, the fiscal policy more strongly affects inflation than the monetary policy. Finally, the Granger causality test also indicates one-way causality relationships from the government expenditure as well as the exchange rate to price volatility in the study period.

scholarly journals A MONETARY ANALYSIS OF GHANA: EXAMINING THE IMPACT AND THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MONETARY POLICY AND INFLATION IN GHANA

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Edmund Obeng Amaning ◽  
Ali Napari Seidu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Impact

Purpose: The main objective of the study was to examine the impact and the causal relationship between monetary policy and inflation in Ghana.Methodology: Annual time series data spanning from 1985 to 2017 with Auto Regressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) model were employed for the analysis.Findings: The outcome from the study shows that, monetary policy rate had insignificant negative relationship with inflation in both the short and the long run. Again, interest rate, domestic investment and money supply were found to have significant positive impact on inflation in both the long and the short run for a specific period chosen for the study.The causal relationship shows that monetary policy rate granger causes money supply within the period understudyUnique contribution to theory and practice: The study recommends that policy makers need to keenly consider the levels of money supply in Ghana so as to ensure a stable retail price levels. The Government of Ghana needs to evaluate the prevailing levels of retail prices and set the interest rates on the 91-day Treasury bills because they are majorly treated as risk free rate hence determines other interest rates and inflation levels in Ghana.

Money Supply and Equity Price Movements During the Liberalized Period in India

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 108-123
Author(s):  
Tarak Nath Sahu ◽  
Krishna Dayal Pandey
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Function Analysis ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to contribute towards the prevalent understanding and the extant literatures on the effect of changes in money supply as an important monetary policy shock on the stock prices of India by using a time-varying parameter models with vector autoregressive specification during the period 1996 to 2016. The result of Johansen’s cointegration test suggests a significantly positive long-run co-movement between the growth of money supply and stock prices in India but the result of vector error correction model (VECM) does not exhibit any significant relationship in short run. Further, the error correction term of the VECM reveals a long-run unidirectional causality from money supply to stock prices. However, the Granger causality test confirms that the growth rate of money supply does not cause the stock market movement in India in short run. Finally, the variance decomposition analysis reveals that both the Indian stock markets are strongly exogenous in the sense that shocks to money supply explain only a small portion of the forecast variance error of the market indices. Again, the impulse response function analysis indicates that a positive shock in money supply has a small but persistently positive effect on stock prices in India.

scholarly journals Cyclical Fluctuation, Growth, and Stabilization: An Empirical Investigation of Dual Policy Objectives in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sakil Ahmmed ◽  
◽  
Jonaed Jonaed
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle

In conventional economics, two types of macroeconomic policy i.e. fiscal policy and monetary policy are used to streamline the business cycle. This paper has examined the cyclical behavior of these variables over the business cycle of Bangladesh. The objective of this examination is to show whether policies (fiscal policy and monetary policy) in Bangladesh are taken with a motive to stabilize the economy or only to promote economic growth. In other words, it has examined whether the policies in Bangladesh are procyclical or countercyclical or acyclical. Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter has been used to separate the cyclical component of considered variables. Both correlation and regression-based analysis have provided that in Bangladesh government expenditure and interest rates behave procyclically, but money supply behaves acyclically over the business cycle. Besides, this paper has tried to identify the long-term as well as the short-term relationship between real GDP and the macroeconomic policy variables with the help of the Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), and block exogeneity Wald test. Through these analyses, this study has found that fiscal policy has a significant impact on GDP growth both in the short-run and long-run. In the case of monetary policy, although the interest rate has an impact on real output both in the short-run and long-run, the money supply has neither a short-run nor long-run effect on output growth.

scholarly journals Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy and Price Volatility: Evidence from an Emerging Economy

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Thanh Tung
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Vietnam is an Asian emerging country, which now is ranked in the group of the fastest-gro-wing economies worldwide. However, this economy has faced galloping inflation in recent years. So the Vietnamese experience is a valuable reference for the policymakers in the developing world in order to successfully control price volatility. Our study applies the Vector autoregressive method, the Johansen cointegration test, and the Granger causality test to examine the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on price volatility in Vietnam with a quarterly data sample collected over the period from 2004 to 2018. The study results confirm the existence of a long-term cointegration relationship between these policies and price volatility in Vietnam. Besides, the variance decomposition and impulse response function also show that the impact of these policies on inflation is clear, however, the fiscal policy more strongly affects inflation than the monetary policy. Finally, the Granger causality test also indicates one-way causality relationships from the government expenditure as well as the exchange rate to price volatility in the study period.

scholarly journals Interest Rate And Stock Market Returns In Namibia

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 689
Author(s):  
Joel Hinaunye Eita
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Return

This paper analyses the causal relationship between interest rate and stock market return in Namibia for the period 1996 to 2012. The analysis was done through cointegrated vector autoregression methods. The analysis reveals that there is a negative relationship between stock market returns and interest rates in Namibia. Causality test indicates that there is bi-directional causality between stock market returns and interest rate in Namibia. The results suggest that contractionary monetary policy through higher interest rate decreases stock market returns in Namibia.

scholarly journals Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (10) ◽  
pp. 3154-3185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric T. Swanson ◽  
John C. Williams
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Models ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy ◽  
Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy

According to standard macroeconomic models, the zero lower bound greatly reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy and increases the efficacy of fiscal policy. However, private-sector decisions depend on the entire path of expected future short-term interest rates, not just the current short-term rate. Put differently, longer-term yields matter. We show how to measure the zero bound's effects on yields of any maturity. Indeed, 1- and 2-year Treasury yields were surprisingly unconstrained throughout 2008 to 2010, suggesting that monetary and fiscal policy were about as effective as usual during this period. Only beginning in late 2011 did these yields become more constrained. (JEL E43, E52, E62)

scholarly journals Economic Growth, Policies and Influencing Factors: The Case of Albania

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Eleni Vangjeli ◽  
Anila Mancka
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
The Government ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Monetary and fiscal policies are two policies that the government could use to keep a high level of growth, with a low inflancion. Fiscal policy has its initial impact on the stock market, while monetary policy in market assets. But, given that the goods and active markets are closely interrelated, both policies, monetary as well as fiscal have impact on the economy, increasing the level of product through the reduction of interest rates. In our paper we will show how functioning monetary and fiscal policies. But also in our paper we will analyze the different factors which have affected the economic growth of the country. The focus of our study is the graphical and empirical analysis of economic growth, policies and influencing factors. For the empirical analysis we have used data on the economic growth in Albania for 1996– 2014.

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