Strategies for Restoring River Ecosystems: Sources of Variability and Uncertainty in Natural and Managed Systems

2003 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Urban Environments ◽  
River Channels ◽  
River Ecosystems ◽  
River Flooding ◽  
Hydrologic Change ◽  
River Drainages

<em>Abstract</em>.—River ecosystems are naturally variable in time and space and this variability is largely determined by climate, geology, and topography. We explore how variability in climate influences rivers. Our specific goals are to discuss (1) the major natural drivers of global-scale climate; (2) variability in temperature, precipitation, and streamflow patterns and how they relate to natural climate oscillations, such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO); (3) how human activities influence climate variability; (4) how climate variability influences river systems; and (5) the need to account for climate variability in river restoration activities. Three regional-scale river drainages are explored in detail: the Columbia River in the Pacific Northwest; the Colorado River in the Rocky Mountains and the Southwestern USA; and the Kissimmee–Okeechobee–Everglades drainage in South Florida. As is true for many river drainages, humans have strongly influenced the hydrologic cycle in the three aforementioned basins through land-use practices. Clearing forests, creating urban environments, building dams, irrigating fields, and straightening rivers all contribute to hydrologic change, especially river flooding. Rates of climate change and climate variability are now being influenced by human activities. Restoring the connectivity between river channels and floodplains, and “naturalization” of flow regimes of many large river drainages could be a major management action for ameliorating changes due to increased climate variability.

Strategies for Restoring River Ecosystems: Sources of Variability and Uncertainty in Natural and Managed Systems

2003 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Biological Properties ◽  
River Channels ◽  
Major Question ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
River Ecosystems ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Natural Properties ◽  
Recovery Processes ◽  
Restoration Strategies ◽  
River Drainages

<em>Abstract</em>.—Development of effective restoration strategies for river systems requires the use of scientific concepts about sources of variability and uncertainty. Most of these concepts are based on physical and biological properties, their processes and variability, and human-induced uncertainties within river drainages and their differences across regions. Important natural properties include climate; hydrology; geology; geomorphology; disturbance regimes like floods and fires; connectivity between river channels and floodplains; plant and animal population and community characteristics; and trophic dynamics. A major question when developing restoration strategies is, “How can we use information about variations in natural properties and anthropogenic actions to assist policy makers by reducing the uncertainty of decisions and to better manage river ecosystems?” We evaluate several concepts of variability in river ecosystems that are presented in this book: spatial and temporal scales, connectivity, and disturbance. Case studies of fish responses to temperature and hydrologic variability are used to show how this information can be applied to restoration plans. We also focus on the need to incorporate concepts of “recovery” into restoration strategies, and present several examples of recovery processes that occur following disturbances and potential restorative actions. Finally, we explore alternatives for evaluating and treating uncertainty in societal and policy arenas.

scholarly journals “Beyond Weather Regimes”: Descriptors Monitoring Atmospheric Centers of Action. A case study for Aotearoa New Zealand

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-50
Author(s):  
Benjamin Pohl ◽  
Andrew Lorrey ◽  
Andrew Sturman ◽  
Hervé Quénol ◽  
James Renwick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Scale Effects ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Weather Regimes ◽  
Aotearoa New Zealand

AbstractThis paper introduces a set of descriptors applied to weather regimes, that allow for a detailed monitoring of the location and intensity of their atmospheric centers of action (e.g. troughs and ridges) and the gradients between them, when applicable. Descriptors are designed to document the effect of climate variability and change in modulating the character of daily weather regimes, rather than merely their occurrence statistics.As a case study, the methodology is applied to Aotearoa New Zealand (ANZ), using ERA5 ensemble reanalysis data for the period 1979-2019. Here, we analyze teleconnections between the regimes and their descriptors, and large-scale climate variability. Results show a significant modulation of centers of action by the phase of the Southern Annular Mode, with a strong relationship identified with the latitude of atmospheric ridges. Significant associations with El Niño Southern Oscillation are also identified. Modes of large-scale variability have a stronger influence on the regimes’ intrinsic features than their occurrence. This demonstrates the usefulness of such descriptors, which help understand the relationship between mid-latitude transient perturbations and large-scale modes of climate variability.In future research, this methodological framework will be applied to analyze (i) low-frequency changes in weather regimes under climate change, in line with the southward shift of storm tracks, and (ii) regional-scale effects on the climate of ANZ, resulting from interaction with its topography.

scholarly journals Calibration Uncertainties of Tropical Pacific Climate Reconstructions over the Last Millennium

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (14) ◽  
pp. 4547-4566
Author(s):  
Kyung-Sook Yun ◽  
Axel Timmermann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Restrictive Assumption ◽  
Calibration Period ◽  
Reconstruction Methods

Abstract Several climate field reconstruction methods assume stationarity between the leading patterns of variability identified during the instrumental calibration period and the reconstruction period. We examine how and to what extent this restrictive assumption may generate uncertainties in reconstructing past tropical Pacific climate variability. Based on the Last Millennium (850–2005 CE) ensemble simulations conducted with the Community Earth System Model and by developing a series of pseudoproxy reconstructions for different calibration periods, we find that the overall reconstruction skill for global and more regional-scale climate indices depends significantly on the magnitude of externally forced global mean temperature variability during the chosen calibration period. This effect strongly reduces the fidelity of reconstructions of decadal to centennial-scale tropical climate variability, associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and centennial-scale temperature shifts between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). In contrast, our pseudoproxy-based analysis demonstrates that reconstructions of interannual El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability are more robust and less affected by changes in calibration period.

VARIABILIDAD CLIMÁTICA, CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y PESQUERÍAS EN EL ECUADOR.

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Johnny Chavarría Viteri ◽  
Dennis Tomalá Solano
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Current Action ◽  
Palabras Clave

La variabilidad climática es la norma que ha modulado la vida en el planeta. Este trabajo demuestra que las pesquerías y acuicultura costera ecuatorianas no son la excepción, puesto que tales actividades están fuertemente influenciadas por la variabilidad ENSO (El Niño-Oscilación del Sur) y PDO (Oscilación Decadal del Pacífico), planteándose que la señal del cambio climático debe contribuir a esta influencia. Se destaca también que, en el análisis de los efectos de la variabilidad climática sobre los recursos pesqueros, el esfuerzo extractivo también debe ser considerado. Por su parte, la acción actual de la PDO está afectando la señal del cambio climático, encontrándose actualmente en fases opuestas. Se espera que estas señales entren en fase a finales de esta década, y principalmente durante la década de los 20 y consecuentemente se evidencien con mayor fuerza los efectos del Cambio Climático. Palabras Clave: Variabilidad Climática, Cambio Climático, ENSO, PDO, Pesquerías, Ecuador. ABSTRACT Climate variability is the standard that has modulated life in the planet. This work shows that the Ecuadorian  fisheries and aquaculture are not the exception, since such activities are strongly influenced by ENSO variability (El Niño - Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), considering that the signal of climate change should contribute to this influence. It also emphasizes that in the analysis of the effects of climate variability on the fishing resources, the extractive effort must also be considered. For its part, the current action of the PDO is affecting the signal of climate change, now found on opposite phases. It is hoped that these signals come into phase at the end of this decade, and especially during the decade of the 20’s and more strongly evidencing the effects of climate change. Keywords: Climate variability, climate change, ENSO (El Niño - Southern Oscillation) and PDO  (Pacific Decadal Oscillation); fisheries, Ecuador. Recibido: mayo, 2012Aprobado: agosto, 2012

scholarly journals Quantifying the influence of natural climate variability on in situ measurements of seasonal total and extreme daily precipitation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark D. Risser ◽  
Michael F. Wehner ◽  
John P. O’Brien ◽  
Christina M. Patricola ◽  
Travis A. O’Brien ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
In Situ Measurements ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Natural Climate Variability ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
Natural Climate

AbstractWhile various studies explore the relationship between individual sources of climate variability and extreme precipitation, there is a need for improved understanding of how these physical phenomena simultaneously influence precipitation in the observational record across the contiguous United States. In this work, we introduce a single framework for characterizing the historical signal (anthropogenic forcing) and noise (natural variability) in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation. An important aspect of our analysis is that we simultaneously isolate the individual effects of seven modes of variability while explicitly controlling for joint inter-mode relationships. Our method utilizes a spatial statistical component that uses in situ measurements to resolve relationships to their native scales; furthermore, we use a data-driven procedure to robustly determine statistical significance. In Part I of this work we focus on natural climate variability: detection is mostly limited to DJF and SON for the modes of variability considered, with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific–North American pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation exhibiting the largest influence. Across all climate indices considered, the signals are larger and can be detected more clearly for seasonal total versus extreme precipitation. We are able to detect at least some significant relationships in all seasons in spite of extremely large (> 95%) background variability in both mean and extreme precipitation. Furthermore, we specifically quantify how the spatial aspect of our analysis reduces uncertainty and increases detection of statistical significance while also discovering results that quantify the complex interconnected relationships between climate drivers and seasonal precipitation.

scholarly journals The effects of ENSO, climate change and human activities on the water level of Lake Toba, Indonesia: a critical literature review

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hendri Irwandi ◽  
Mohammad Syamsu Rosid ◽  
Terry Mart
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Continuous Increase ◽  
The Future

AbstractThis research quantitatively and qualitatively analyzes the factors responsible for the water level variations in Lake Toba, North Sumatra Province, Indonesia. According to several studies carried out from 1993 to 2020, changes in the water level were associated with climate variability, climate change, and human activities. Furthermore, these studies stated that reduced rainfall during the rainy season due to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the continuous increase in the maximum and average temperatures were some of the effects of climate change in the Lake Toba catchment area. Additionally, human interventions such as industrial activities, population growth, and damage to the surrounding environment of the Lake Toba watershed had significant impacts in terms of decreasing the water level. However, these studies were unable to determine the factor that had the most significant effect, although studies on other lakes worldwide have shown these factors are the main causes of fluctuations or decreases in water levels. A simulation study of Lake Toba's water balance showed the possibility of having a water surplus until the mid-twenty-first century. The input discharge was predicted to be greater than the output; therefore, Lake Toba could be optimized without affecting the future water level. However, the climate projections depicted a different situation, with scenarios predicting the possibility of extreme climate anomalies, demonstrating drier climatic conditions in the future. This review concludes that it is necessary to conduct an in-depth, comprehensive, and systematic study to identify the most dominant factor among the three that is causing the decrease in the Lake Toba water level and to describe the future projected water level.

scholarly journals Calcium and Potassium Nutrition Increases the Water Use Efficiency in Coffee: A Promising Strategy to Adapt to Climate Change

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 75
Author(s):  
Victor Hugo Ramírez-Builes ◽  
Jürgen Küsters
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Water Use Efficiency ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Coffee Production ◽  
Use Efficiency

Coffee (Coffea spp.) represents one of the most important sources of income and goods for the agricultural sector in Central America, Colombia, and the Caribbean region. The sustainability of coffee production at the global and regional scale is under threat by climate change, with a major risk of losing near to 50% of today’s suitable area for coffee by 2050. Rain-fed coffee production dominates in the region, and under increasing climate variability and climate change impacts, these production areas are under threat due to air temperature increase and changes in rainfall patterns and volumes. Identification, evaluation, and implementation of adaptation strategies for growers to cope with climate variability and change impacts are relevant and high priority. Incremental adaptation strategies, including proper soil and water management, contribute to improved water use efficiency (WUE) and should be the first line of action to adapt the coffee crop to the changing growing conditions. This research’s objective was to evaluate at field level over five years the influence of fertilization with calcium (Ca+2) and potassium (K+) on WUE in two coffee arabica varieties: cv. Castillo and cv. Caturra. Castillo has resistance against coffee leaf rust (CLR) (Hemileia vastatrix Verkeley and Brome), while Caturra is not CLR-resistant. WUE was influenced by yield changes during the years by climate variability due to El Niño–ENSO conditions and CLR incidence. Application of Ca+2 and K+ improved the WUE under such variable conditions. The highest WUE values were obtained with an application of 100 kg CaO ha−1 year−1 and between 180 to 230 kg K2O ha−1 year−1. The results indicate that adequate nutrition with Ca+2 and K+ can improve WUE in the long-term, even underwater deficit conditions and after the substantial incidence. Hence, an optimum application of Ca+2 and K+ in rain-fed coffee plantations can be regarded as an effective strategy to adapt to climate variability and climate change.

Response of streamflow to climate variability and changes in human activities in the semiarid highlands of northern Ethiopia

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 1229-1240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayele Almaw Fenta ◽  
Hiroshi Yasuda ◽  
Katsuyuki Shimizu ◽  
Nigussie Haregeweyn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Northern Ethiopia
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