Canadian Continental-Scale Hydrology under a Changing Climate: A Review

Canada, like other high latitude cold regions on Earth, is experiencing some of the most accelerated and intense warming resulting from global climate change. In the northern regions, Arctic amplification has resulted in warming two to three times greater than global mean temperature trends. Unprecedented warming is matched by intensification of wet and dry regions and hydroclimatic cycles, which is altering the spatial and seasonal distribution of surface waters in Canada. Diagnosing and tracking hydrologic change across Canada requires the implementation of continental-scale prediction models owing the size of Canada’s drainage basins, their distribution across multiple eco- and climatic zones, and the scarcity and paucity of observational networks. This review examines the current state of continental-scale climate change across Canada and the anticipated impacts to freshwater availability, including the role of anthropogenic regulation. The review focuses on continental and regional-scale prediction that underpins operational design and long-term resource planning and management in Canada. While there are significant process-based changes being experienced within Canadian catchments that are equally—if not more so—critical for community water availability, the focus of this review is on the cumulative effects of climate change and anthropogenic regulation for the Canadian freshwater supply.

Understanding the hydrologic impacts of wildfire management strategies using MIKE SHE

<p>Proactive thinning and controlled burning are being utilized to mitigate the effects of severe wildfires across the globe. Hydrologic function of watersheds after wildfire and clear-cutting has been well documented, however the impacts of pre-fire mitigation strategies are less understood. The current study utilized two mixed precipitation watersheds, which supply drinking water for Ashland, Oregon, USA, to assess the effectiveness of restoration and fuel reduction strategies on hydrologic change. This Mediterranean dry mixed conifer-hardwood habitat is unique as it sits in the convergence point of several ecoregions, providing significant biological diversity for the region. Hydrologic response from prior mitigation strategies was evaluated using max monthly flow, mean annual 7-day low flow, runoff ratios, timing and total water yield. Results show an average decrease of 26% and 24% in total annual water yields in the West and East basins of the Ashland watershed, respectively. Analysis also showed that 66% (West) and 72% (East) of the changes in water yield were due to annual variations in precipitation, demonstrating that land cover changes were not the dominant driver of hydrologic change. Current work includes identifying the thresholds at which stand density reduction leads to an increase in annual surface water yield. The integrated surface and groundwater model, MIKE SHE, is developed and used to simulate a range of forest fire mitigation efforts based upon representative parameters in the model, including leaf area index. Findings will then be expanded to include stand density index for better interpretation of our findings to make recommendations for local and regional forest managers. Ultimately, results will help inform future implementation of forest restoration and climate adaptation at larger scales.</p>

Data assimilation, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification in a semi-arid terminal catchment subject to rainfall decline

<p>Quantification of long-term hydrologic change in groundwater often requires the comparison of states pre- and post- change. The assessment of these changes in ungauged catchments is particularly difficult from a conceptual point of view and due to parameter non-uniqueness and associated uncertainty of quantitative frameworks. In these contexts, the use of data assimilation, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification techniques are critical to maximise the use of available data both in terms of conceptualisation and quantification. This paper summarises findings of a study undertaken in the Lake Muir-Unicup Natural Diversity Recovery Catchment (MUNDRC), where a number of techniques were applied to inform both conceptual and numerical models. The MUNDRC is and small-scale endorheic basin located in southwestern Australia listed under the Ramsar Convention as a Wetland of International Importance and have been subject to a systematic decline in rainfall rates since 1970. Conceptual and numerical frameworks have been development to understand and quantify impacts of rainfall decline on the catchment using a variety of metrics involving groundwater and lake levels, as well as fluxes between these compartments and mass balance components. Conceptualisation was facilitated with the use a novel data-driven method relating rainfall and groundwater response running backwards in time, allowing the establishment of baseline conditions prior to rainfall decline, estimation of net recharge rates and providing initial heads for the forward numerical modelling. Parameter and predictive uncertainties associated with data gaps have been minimised and quantified utilising an Iterative Ensemble Smoother (White, 2018), while further refinement of conceptual model was undertaken following results from sensitivity analysis, where major parameter controls groundwater levels and other predictions of interest were quantified.</p>

A Meta-Analysis of Environmental Tradeoffs of Hydropower Dams in the Sekong, Sesan, and Srepok (3S) Rivers of the Lower Mekong Basin

In Mekong riparian countries, hydropower development provides energy, but also threatens biodiversity, ecosystems, food security, and an unparalleled freshwater fishery. The Sekong, Sesan, and Srepok Rivers (3S Basin) are major tributaries to the Lower Mekong River (LMB), making up 10% of the Mekong watershed but supporting nearly 40% of the fish species of the LMB. Forty-five dams have been built, are under construction, or are planned in the 3S Basin. We completed a meta-analysis of aquatic and riparian environmental losses from current, planned, and proposed hydropower dams in the 3S and LMB using 46 papers and reports from the past three decades. Proposed mainstem Stung Treng and Sambor dams were not included in our analysis because Cambodia recently announced a moratorium on mainstem Mekong River dams. More than 50% of studies evaluated hydrologic change from dam development, 33% quantified sediment alteration, and 30% estimated fish production changes. Freshwater fish diversity, non-fish species, primary production, trophic ecology, and nutrient loading objectives were less commonly studied. We visualized human and environmental tradeoffs of 3S dams from the reviewed papers. Overall, Lower Sesan 2, the proposed Sekong Dam, and planned Lower Srepok 3A and Lower Sesan 3 have considerable environmental impacts. Tradeoff analyses should include environmental objectives by representing organisms, habitats, and ecosystems to quantify environmental costs of dam development and maintain the biodiversity and extraordinary freshwater fishery of the LMB.

Salt Marsh Elevation Limit Determined after Subsidence from Hydrologic Change and Hydrocarbon Extraction

Levee construction aboveground and hydrocarbon removal from belowground in coastal wetlands can create hydrologic changes that increase plant stress through flooding. But the significance of the subsidence they cause individually or in combination is contested. This study untangled them to demonstrate elevational limits of salt marshes by studying dredged and natural waterways in two salt marshes in Louisiana, USA. The areas had a homogenous plant cover before drilling for oil and gas extraction peaked in the 1960s, and now are a mixed network of natural waterways and dredged canals used to drill wells with an average drill date of 1965.8 ± 2.7 (µ ± 1 SEM; n = 18) and well depth of 4661.0 m ± 56.6 (µ ± 1 SEM; n = 18). Aerial imagery was used to document how canals widened to become 2 to 4 times larger than their original construction width at the high production site and 50% larger at the low production site, whereas increases at the nearby natural channels were much less. Light detection and ranging (LIDAR) measurements at the high production site from 2002 showed that the marsh surface near wells subsided by 34 cm compared to undredged sites. Elevation in marshes at producing and dry wells were equal at the low production site, but high production well locations were even lower than at dry wells. An elevation vs. percent open water curve developed from these data overlapped with an independent analysis of a brackish marsh. A relative subsidence rate between 7.4 to 10.4 mm y−1 transformed these salt marshes to an open water habitat within a few decades. The local creation of accommodation space through hydrocarbon removal and leveed wetlands is a parsimonious explanation for the spatial and temporal land loss rates on this deltaic coast over the last 80 years of oil and gas exploration. Substantial losses from the accelerating rates of sea level rise are indicated to occur before 2050.

Dam-Induced Hydrologic Alterations in the Rivers Feeding the Pantanal

Tropical river basins have experienced dramatically increased hydropower development over the last 20 years. These alterations have the potential to cause changes in hydrologic and ecologic systems. One heavily impacted system is the Upper Paraguay River Basin, which feeds the Pantanal wetland. The Pantanal is a Ramsar Heritage site and is one of the world's largest freshwater wetlands. Over the past 20 years, the number of hydropower facilities in the Upper Paraguay River Basin has more than doubled. This paper uses the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) method to assess the impact of 24 of these dams on the hydrologic regime over 20 years (10 years before and 10 years after dam installation) and proposes a method to disentangle the effects of dams from other drivers of hydrologic change using undammed “control” rivers. While most of these dams are small, run-of-the-river systems, each dam significantly altered at least one of the 33 hydrologic indicators assessed. Across all studied dams, 88 of the 256 calculated indicators changed significantly, causing changes of 5–40%, compared to undammed reaches. These changes were most common in indicators that quantify the frequency and duration of high and low pulses, along with those for the rate and frequency of hydrologic changes. Importantly, the flow regime in several undammed reaches also showed significant alterations, likely due to climate and land-use changes, supporting the need for measurements in representative control systems when attributing causes to observed change. Basin-wide hydrologic changes (in both dammed and undammed rivers) have the potential to fundamentally alter the hydrology, sediment patterns, and ecosystem of the Pantanal wetland. The proposed refinement of the IHA methods reveals crucial differences between dam-induced alteration and those assigned to other drivers of change; these need to be better understood for more efficient management of current hydropower plants or the implementation of future dams.