scholarly journals Calibration Uncertainties of Tropical Pacific Climate Reconstructions over the Last Millennium

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (14) ◽  
pp. 4547-4566
Author(s):  
Kyung-Sook Yun ◽  
Axel Timmermann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Restrictive Assumption ◽  
Calibration Period ◽  
Reconstruction Methods

Abstract Several climate field reconstruction methods assume stationarity between the leading patterns of variability identified during the instrumental calibration period and the reconstruction period. We examine how and to what extent this restrictive assumption may generate uncertainties in reconstructing past tropical Pacific climate variability. Based on the Last Millennium (850–2005 CE) ensemble simulations conducted with the Community Earth System Model and by developing a series of pseudoproxy reconstructions for different calibration periods, we find that the overall reconstruction skill for global and more regional-scale climate indices depends significantly on the magnitude of externally forced global mean temperature variability during the chosen calibration period. This effect strongly reduces the fidelity of reconstructions of decadal to centennial-scale tropical climate variability, associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and centennial-scale temperature shifts between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). In contrast, our pseudoproxy-based analysis demonstrates that reconstructions of interannual El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability are more robust and less affected by changes in calibration period.

Reconstruction of the Extratropical NH Mean Temperature over the Last Millennium with a Method that Preserves Low-Frequency Variability

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (23) ◽  
pp. 6013-6034 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Christiansen ◽  
Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist
Keyword(s):  
Low Frequency ◽  
Temperature Reconstruction ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Screening Process ◽  
Calibration Period ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Reconstruction Methods ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
In The Beginning

Abstract A new multiproxy reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical mean temperature over the last millennium is presented. The reconstruction is performed with a novel method designed to avoid the underestimation of low-frequency variability that has been a general problem for regression-based reconstruction methods. The disadvantage of this method is an exaggerated high-frequency variability. The reconstruction is based on a set of 40 proxies of annual to decadal resolution that have been shown to relate to the local temperature. The new reconstruction shows a very cold Little Ice Age centered around the 17th century with a cold extremum (for 50-yr smoothing) of about 1.1 K below the temperature of the calibration period, AD 1880–1960. This cooling is about twice as large as corresponding numbers reported by most other reconstructions. In the beginning of the millennium the new reconstruction shows small anomalies in agreement with previous studies. However, the new temperature reconstruction decreases faster than previous reconstructions in the first 600 years of the millennium and has a stronger variability. The salient features of the new reconstruction are shown to be robust to changes in the calibration period, the source of the local temperatures, the spatial averaging procedure, and the screening process applied to the proxies. An ensemble pseudoproxy approach is applied to estimate the confidence intervals of the 50-yr smoothed reconstruction showing that the period AD 1500–1850 is significantly colder than the calibration period.

scholarly journals Quantifying the influence of natural climate variability on in situ measurements of seasonal total and extreme daily precipitation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark D. Risser ◽  
Michael F. Wehner ◽  
John P. O’Brien ◽  
Christina M. Patricola ◽  
Travis A. O’Brien ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
In Situ Measurements ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Natural Climate Variability ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
Natural Climate

AbstractWhile various studies explore the relationship between individual sources of climate variability and extreme precipitation, there is a need for improved understanding of how these physical phenomena simultaneously influence precipitation in the observational record across the contiguous United States. In this work, we introduce a single framework for characterizing the historical signal (anthropogenic forcing) and noise (natural variability) in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation. An important aspect of our analysis is that we simultaneously isolate the individual effects of seven modes of variability while explicitly controlling for joint inter-mode relationships. Our method utilizes a spatial statistical component that uses in situ measurements to resolve relationships to their native scales; furthermore, we use a data-driven procedure to robustly determine statistical significance. In Part I of this work we focus on natural climate variability: detection is mostly limited to DJF and SON for the modes of variability considered, with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific–North American pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation exhibiting the largest influence. Across all climate indices considered, the signals are larger and can be detected more clearly for seasonal total versus extreme precipitation. We are able to detect at least some significant relationships in all seasons in spite of extremely large (> 95%) background variability in both mean and extreme precipitation. Furthermore, we specifically quantify how the spatial aspect of our analysis reduces uncertainty and increases detection of statistical significance while also discovering results that quantify the complex interconnected relationships between climate drivers and seasonal precipitation.

Climate variability of the Great Barrier Reef in relation to the tropical Pacific and El Niño-Southern Oscillation

2012 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Redondo-Rodriguez ◽  
Scarla J. Weeks ◽  
Ray Berkelmans ◽  
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg ◽  
Janice M. Lough
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Great Barrier Reef ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Barrier Reef ◽  
Enso Events

Understanding the nature and causes of recent climate variability on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia, is fundamental to assessing the impacts of future climate change on this complex ecosystem. New analytical tools, improved data quality and resolution, longer time-series and new variables provide an opportunity to re-assess existing paradigms. Here, we examined sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure, surface winds, sea surface height and ocean currents for the period from 1948 to 2009. We focussed on the relationship between GBR surface climate and the wider tropical Pacific, and the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Also, for the first time, we investigated the impact of the El Niño/La Niña Modoki phenomenon. Although neither type of ENSO event is a primary driver of inter-annual climate variability on the GBR, their influence is conspicuous. Classical ENSO events have a strong signature in the atmospheric circulation in the northern GBR but no significant relationship with SSTs and the opposite applies for the southern GBR. Conversely, El Niño/La Niña Modoki is significantly related to summer SSTs on the northern GBR, but not for the southern GBR. This study enhances our understanding of tropical Pacific and GBR climate drivers and will improve future predictions of change in climate variables that are likely to impact on the complex GBR ecosystem.

scholarly journals The easternmost tropical Pacific. Part II: Seasonal and intraseasonal modes of atmospheric variability

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge A. Amador ◽  
A. M. Durán-Quesada ◽  
E. R. Rivera ◽  
G. Mora ◽  
F. Sáenz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Seasonal Migration ◽  
World Heritage Site ◽  
Summer Drought ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The Caribbean

<p>This is Part II of a two-part review about climate and climate variability focused on the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) and the Caribbean Sea (CS). Both parts are aimed at providing oceanographers, marine biologists, and other ocean scientists, a guiding base for ocean-atmosphere interaction processes affecting the CS, the ETP, and the waters of Isla del Coco. Isla del Coco National Park is a Costa Rican World Heritage site. Part I analyzed the mean fields for both basins and a larger region covering 25º S - 35º N, 20º W - 130º W. Here we focus on a smaller area (65º W - 95º W, 0º - 20º N), as a complement to Part 1. Incoming solar radiation and surface energy fluxes reveal the complex nature of the ETP and CS for convective activity and precipitation on seasonal and intraseasonal time scales. Both regions are relevant as sources of evaporation and the associated moisture transport processes. The American Monsoon System influences the climate and climate variability of the ETP and CS, however, the precise way systems affect regional precipitation and transport of moisture, within the Intra Americas Sea (IAS) are not clear. Although the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ) is known to act as a conveyor belt for moisture transport, intraseasonal and seasonal modes of the CLLJ and their interactions with other IAS systems, have to be further investigated. Trans-isthmic jets, exert a variable seasonal wind stress force over the ocean surface co-generating regions of great marine productivity. Isolated convection, the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the hurricane season, the Mid-Summer Drought, the seasonal and intraseasonal behavior of low-level jets and their interactions with transients, and the southward incursion of cold fronts contribute to regional seasonal precipitation. Many large-scale systems, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO, also influence the variability of precipitation by modulating regional features associated with convection and precipitation. Monthly tropical storm (TS) activity in the CS and ETP basins is restricted to the period May-November, with very few cases in December. The CS presents TS peak activity during August, as well as for the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes, in contrast to the ETP that shows the same features during September.</p><div> </div>

scholarly journals Large-scale Climate Variability Footprint in Water Levels of Alluvial Aquifers Across Iran

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abolfazl Rezaei
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Frequency Bands ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Aquifer Storage ◽  
Atmospheric Circulations

Abstract The ability to predict future variability of groundwater resources in time and space is of critical
importance in society’s adaptation to climate variability and change. Periodic control of large scale ocean-atmospheric circulations on groundwater levels proposes a potentially effective source of longer term forecasting capability. In this study, as a first national-scale assessment, we use the continues wavelet transform, global power spectrum, and wavelet coherence analyses to quantify the controls of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the representative groundwater levels of the 24 principal aquifers, scattered across different 14 climate zones of Iran. The results demonstrate that aquifer storage variations are partially controlled by annual to interdecadal climate variability and are not solely a function of pumping variations. Moreover, teleconnections are observed to be both frequency and time specific. The significant coherence patterns between the climate indices and groundwater levels are observed at five frequency bands of the annual (~1-yr), interannual (2-4- and 4-6-yr), decadal (8-12-yr), and interdecadal (14-18yr), consistent with the dominant modes of climate indices. AMO’s strong footprint is observed at interdecadal and annual modes of groundwater levels while PDO’s highest imprint is seen in interannual, decadal, and interdecadal modes. The highest controlling influence of ENSO is observed across the decadal and interannual modes whereas the NAO’s footprint is marked at annual and interdecadal frequency bands. Further, it is observed that the groundwater variability being higher modulated by a combination of large-scale atmospheric circulations rather than each individual index. The decadal and interdecadal oscillation modes constitute the dominant modes in Iranian aquifers. Findings also mark the unsaturated zone contribution in damping and lagging of the climate variability modes, particularly for the higher frequency indices of ENSO and NAO where the groundwater variability is observed to be more correlated with lower frequent climate circulations such as PDO and AMO, rather than ENSO and NAO. Finally, it is found that the data length can significantly affect the teleconnections if the time series are not contemporaneous and only one value of coherence/correlation is computed for each particular series instead of separate computations for different frequency bands and different time spans.

scholarly journals The Indian summer monsoon climate during the Last Millennium, as simulated by the PMIP3

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charan Teja Tejavath ◽  
Ashok Karumuri ◽  
Supriyo Chakraborty ◽  
Rengasamy Ramesh
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Strong Negative Correlation ◽  
Summer Temperatures

Abstract. In this study, using the available model simulations from the PMIP3, we study the mean summer (June–September; JJAS) climate and its variability in India during the Last Millennium (CE 850–1849; LM) for which conventional observations are unavailable, with emphasis on the Medieval Warm Period (MWP; CE 1000–1199 as against the CE 950–AD1350 from the proxy-observations) and Little Ice Age (LIA; CE 1550–1749 as against the CE 1500–1850 proxy observations. Out of the eight available models, by validating the corresponding simulated global and Indian mean summer temperatures and mean Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), and their respective trends, from historical simulations (CMIP5) against the various observed/reanalysed datasets for the 1901–2005 period. From this exercise, we identify seven realistic models. The models simulate higher (lower) mean summer temperatures in India as well as globally during the MWP (LIA) as compared to the corresponding LM statistics, in conformation with several proxy studies. Our Analysis shows a strong negative correlation between the NINO3.4 index and the ISMR and a positive correlation between NINO3.4 and summer temperature over India during the LM, as is observed in the last one-and-half centuries. The magnitude of the simulated ISMR-NINO3.4 index correlations, as seen from the multi-model mean, is found to be higher for the MWP (−0.19; significant at 95 % confidence level) as compared to that for the LIA (−0.09; insignificant). Our analysis also shows that the above (below) LM-mean summer temperatures during the MWP (LIA) are associated with relatively more (less) number of concurrent El Niños as compared to the La Niñas. Distribution of boreal summer velocity potential at 850 hPa in the central tropical pacific and a zone of anomalous convergence in the central tropical pacific, flanked by two zones of divergence in the equatorial pacific, suggesting a westward shift in Walker circulation as compared to the current day signal. The anomalous divergence centre in the west also extends into the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean, which results in an anomalous convergence zone over India and therefore excess rainfall during the MWP as compared to the LM. The results are qualitative, given the inter-model spread.

scholarly journals Recent Precipitation Trends and Floods in the Colombian Andes

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Álvaro Ávila ◽  
Faisury Guerrero ◽  
Yesid Escobar ◽  
Flávio Justino
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Colombian Andes ◽  
Precipitation Trends

This study aims to identify spatial and temporal precipitation trends by analyzing eight extreme climate indices of rainfall in the High Basin of the Cauca River in Southwestern Colombia from 1970 to 2013. The relation between historical floods and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is also analyzed. Results indicate that in general, the reduction of precipitation, especially in the center of the basin with negative annual and seasonal trends in intensity indices, namely, the annual maximum 1-day precipitation amount (RX1day) and annual maximum 5-day precipitation amount (RX5day). Sixty-four percentage of the stations exhibit an increasing trend in September–October–November in the consecutive dry days. In December–January–February interval, positive trends in most of the stations is noted for total precipitation and for the number of wet days with rainfall greater than or equal to 1 mm. The findings also show that sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific is statistically correlated (r) with indices of extreme precipitation (r ≥ −0.40). However, the effect of ENSO is evident with a time lag of 2–3 months. These results are relevant for forecasting floods on a regional scale, since changes in SST of the equatorial Pacific may take place 2–3 months ahead of the basin inundation. Our results contribute to the understanding of extreme rainfall events, hydrological hazard forecasts and climate variability in the Colombian Andes.

Comparison of isotopic signatures in ice core and speleothem records to an isotope enabled climate model simulation for the last millennium

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yannick Heiser ◽  
Janica Bühler ◽  
Mathieu Casado ◽  
Kira Rehfeld
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Isotope Ratios ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Polar Ice ◽  
Geophysical Research ◽  
Ice Core Records

&lt;div&gt; &lt;div&gt; &lt;div&gt; &lt;p&gt;Stable water isotope ratios (&amp;#948;18O) measured in e.g. ice-cores or speleothems have long been established as temperature proxies and are used to reconstruct past climate variability but still require more quantification on spatial and temporal scales. The high resolution ice-core archives are mainly found in polar and alpine regions, whereas the speleothem records mostly grow in caves in low to mid-latitudes. To bridge between the archives, models are needed to compare the climate variability stored in both ice-cores and speleothems, which will help to evaluate future projections of climate variability.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Here, we compare a transient isotope enabled simulation from the Hadley Center Climate Model version 3 (iHadCM3) [1, 2] to polar ice-core records from the iso2k database [3] for the last millennium (LM, 850-1850 CE). We analyze time-averaged isotope ratios and their variability on decadal to centennial timescales to systematically evaluate the offsets and correlation patterns between simulated and recorded isotopes to specific climatic drivers. For better comparability between speleothem and ice core-archives, we also include non-polar ice core records, as well as monitored precipitation &amp;#948;18O from a global database.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;We find the time-averaged &amp;#948;18O offsets between the simulation and ice-core records to be fairly small for most of the polar ice-core sites, indicating a low simulation climate offset.&lt;br&gt;As expected, we find the simulated &amp;#948;18O variability to be higher in the polar regions of ice-core locations, compared to the simulated variability at speleothem cave locations. Recorded &amp;#948;18O variability is also generally higher as stored in ice-cores, compared to that stored in speleothems. Both speleothems and ice-core records show damping effects on decadal time scales, which can in part be attributed to the temporal resolution of the individual records. This comparison of different proxy archives to isotope-enabled GCM output shows a promising way to evaluate the model&amp;#8217;s capability to resolve &amp;#948;18O variability.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;div&gt; &lt;div&gt; &lt;div&gt; &lt;p&gt;[1] &amp;#160;B&amp;#252;hler, J. C. et al. Comparison of the oxygen isotope signatures in speleothem records and iHadCM3 model simulations for the last millennium. Climate of the Past: Discussions 1&amp;#8211;30 (2020).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;[2] &amp;#160;Tindall, J. C., Valdes, P. J. &amp; Sime, L. C. Stable water isotopes in HadCM3: Isotopic signature of El Ni&amp;#241;o-Southern Oscillation and the tropical amount effect. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 114, 1&amp;#8211;12 (2009).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;[3] Konecky, B. L. et al. The Iso2k database: A global compilation of paleo-&amp;#948;18O and &amp;#948;2H records to aid understanding of Common Era climate. Earth System Science Data 12, 2261&amp;#8211;2288 (2020).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/div&gt; &lt;/div&gt; &lt;/div&gt; &lt;/div&gt; &lt;/div&gt; &lt;/div&gt;

scholarly journals Impact of Indo-Pacific Climate Variability on Rice Productivity in Bihar, India

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 7023 ◽  
Author(s):  
Netrananda Sahu ◽  
Atul Saini ◽  
Swadhin Behera ◽  
Takahiro Sayama ◽  
Sridhara Nayak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
Partial Correlation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Rice Productivity ◽  
Pacific Climate Variability ◽  
The Impact

The impact of Indo-Pacific climate variability in the South Asian region is very pronounced and their impact on agriculture is very important for the Indian subcontinent. In this study, rice productivity, climatic factors (Rainfall, Temperature and Soil Moisture) and associated major Indo-Pacific climate indices in Bihar were investigated. Bihar is one of the major rice-producing states of India and the role of climate variability and prevailing climate indices in six events (between 1991–2014) with severer than −10% rice productivity are analyzed. The Five-year moving average, Pearson’s Product Moment Correlation, Partial Correlation, Linear Regression Model, Mann Kendall Test, Sen’s Slope and some other important statistical techniques were used to understand the association between climatic variables and rice productivity. Pearson’s Product Moment Correlation provided an overview of the significant correlation between climate indices and rice productivity. Whereas, Partial Correlation provided the most refined results on it and among all the climate indices, Niño 3, Ocean Niño Index and Southern Oscillation Index are found highly associated with years having severer than −10% decline in rice productivity. Rainfall, temperature and soil moisture anomalies are analyzed to observe the importance of climate factors in rice productivity. Along with the lack of rainfall, lack of soil moisture and persistent above normal temperature (especially maximum temperature) are found to be the important factors in cases of severe loss in rice productivity. Observation of the dynamics of ocean-atmosphere coupling through the composite map shows the Pacific warming signals during the event years. The analysis revealed a negative (positive) correlation of rice productivity with the Niño 3 and Ocean Niño Index (Southern Oscillation Index).

El Niño/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium

Nature ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 424 (6946) ◽  
pp. 271-276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim M. Cobb ◽  
Christopher D. Charles ◽  
Hai Cheng ◽  
R. Lawrence Edwards
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Last Millennium
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