scholarly journals Application of Fuzzy Expert Systems to Manage the Projects Time in Iranian Gas Refineries

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 1670-1675
Author(s):  
A. Naderpour ◽  
J. M. Sardroud ◽  
M. Mofid
Keyword(s):  
Expert Systems ◽  
Time Management ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Critical Path ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Weak Point ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Fuzzy Expert Systems

The National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) is one of the top ten gas companies in the gas industry in the Middle East and is comprised of 7 gas refineries. So this company needs to apply the most optimum time management methods to achieve its goals. Custom scheduling calculation of project planning uses the Critical Path Method (CPM) as a tool for Planning Projects activities. CPM is now widely used in planning and managing projects but in spite of its wide application, this method has a critical weak point of not taking into account the uncertainties in scheduling calculation. This article aims to present a precise method based on the application of Fuzzy Expert Systems in order to improve the Time Estimation Method in construction projects and in this regard, reviews the results of the implementation of this method in construction projects of Iranian Gas Refineries. The results show that the proposed method increases the accuracy of time estimation about 7 to 22 percent.

scholarly journals Comparison of PERT/CPM and CCPM Methods in Project Time Management

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (03) ◽  
pp. 01-20
Author(s):  
Taynara Takami Narita ◽  
Caio Henrique Alberconi ◽  
Fernando De Souza ◽  
Lucas Ikeziri
Keyword(s):  
Project Management ◽  
Time Management ◽  
Completion Time ◽  
Computational Simulation ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Theory Of Constraints ◽  
Performance Variables ◽  
Project Completion ◽  
Critical Chain

Purpose: Evaluate and compare PERT/CPM and Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM) techniques, from the Theory of Constraints (TOC), in relation to indicators of delivery time estimation and reliability in meeting established deadlines. Theoretical framework: The research is based on the time management theory established by the PERT/CPM and CCPM methods. Design/methodology/approach: This work has an experimental character, using a method of computer simulation by applying the Promodel software. A fictitious project environment managed by PERT/CPM and CCPM techniques was modeled in order to evaluate and compare their performances in terms of estimation of, and compliance with, project completion deadlines. Findings: The results obtained showed that the CCPM method proved to be more effective in reducing project completion time and meeting established deadlines. Conversely, the PERT/CPM method increased planned project completion time by 189%. Research, Practical & Social implications: Many managers assume that the best approach to project planning, especially when aiming for short and reliable deadlines, is to allocate margins of safety to each scheduled activity. This research reinforced the already widely held perception of TOC that, due to certain ordinary human behaviors, local optimizations do not guarantee, and usually adversely effect, good global results. Originality/value: There is a lack of research comparing PERT/CPM and CCPM techniques through modeling and computer simulations of project environments subjected to certain degrees of uncertainty, particularly in terms of performance variables such as those studied here. The results of this research, therefore, address this opportunity, bringing to light comparative scenarios and explanations for the different behaviors observed. Keywords: Computational Simulation; Project Management; Goldratt; Critical Chain; CCPM; PERT/CPM.

Planning a project of the creation of an electric vehicle technical assistance point

2020 ◽  
pp. 117-123
Author(s):  
Totska Olesia ◽  
Glovatsky Anastasia
Keyword(s):  
Electric Vehicle ◽  
Technical Assistance ◽  
Critical Path ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
The Creation

The purpose of the article is to plan a project of an electric vehicle technicalassistance point. the methodology of the study is to use the critical path method.the scientific novelty of the obtained results is that the article describes the practicalaspects of project planning of the creation of an electric vehicle technical assistancepoint. In particular, the tasks of the project are described, labor, material and financialresources necessary for its realization are specified. conclusions. The implementationof the developed project will effectively manage the content, time and resources ofthe project of the creation of an electric vehicle technical assistance point.

An Application of Fuzzy Expert Systems to Strategic Investments: The Case of Florim S.P.A.

2001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gisella Facchinetti ◽  
Carlo Alberto Magni ◽  
Giovanni Mastroleo ◽  
Marina Vignola
Keyword(s):  
Expert Systems ◽  
Strategic Investments ◽  
Fuzzy Expert Systems

scholarly journals Resource-Based Quality Performance Estimation Method for Construction Operations

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 4122
Author(s):  
Young-Jun Park ◽  
Chang-Yong Yi
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Performance Estimation ◽  
Construction Simulation ◽  
Construction Operations ◽  
Quality Performance ◽  
Management Objectives ◽  
Performance Indexes ◽  
Reducing Costs

Construction quality is one of the primary management objectives relating to duration and cost for construction projects. Project managers struggle with minimizing duration and cost while maximizing quality for construction projects. In construction projects, duration and cost have management priorities. On the other hand, quality is considered a matter of achievement only when it reaches a certain level. Although the importance of quality control in construction management has been constantly discussed, it has still been sacrificed under the goal of shortening construction duration and reducing costs. This study presents a method for estimating the quantitative quality performance of construction operations in which the level of detail is breaking into the work task level for intuitive quality performance evaluation. For this purpose, quality weights of resources that have a proportional quality importance weight and quality performance indexes of resources are utilized for estimating the quantitative quality performance of construction operations. Quality performance estimation and the resource allocation optimization system is presented and validated using a construction simulation model.

scholarly journals Integrating multiple fuzzy expert systems under restricting requirements 

2012 ◽  
Vol 52 (No. 4) ◽  
pp. 187-196
Author(s):  
S. Aly ◽  
I. Vrana
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Expert Systems ◽  
Business Processes ◽  
New Product ◽  
Decision Problems ◽  
Food Chains ◽  
Problem Context ◽  
Multiple Factors ◽  
Decision Consistency ◽  
Fuzzy Expert Systems

The multiple, different and specific expertises are often needed in making YES-or-NO (YES/NO) decisions for treating a variety of business, economic, and agricultural decision problems. This is due to the nature of such problems in which decisions are influenced by multiple factors, and accordingly multiple corresponding expertises are required. Fuzzy expert systems (FESs) are widely used to model expertise due to its capability to model real world values which are not always exact, but frequently vague, or uncertain. In addition, they are able to incorporate qualitative factors. The problem of integrating multiple fuzzy expert systems involves several independent and autonomous fuzzy expert systems arranged synergistically to suit a varying problem context. Every expert system participates in judging the problem based on a predefined match between problem context and the required specific expertises. In this research, multiple FESs are integrated through combining their crisp numerical outputs, which reflect the degree of bias to the Yes/No subjective answers. The reasons for independency can be related to maintainability, decision responsibility, analyzability, knowledge cohesion and modularity, context flexibility, sensitivity of aggregate knowledge, decision consistency, etc. This article presents simple algorithms to integrate multiple parallel FES under specific requirements: preserving the extreme crisp output values, providing for null or non-participating expertises, and considering decision-related expert systems, which are true requirements of a currently held project. The presented results provides a theoretical framework, which can bring advantage to decision making is many disciplines, as e.g. new product launching decision, food quality tracking, monitoring of suspicious deviation of the business processes from the standard performance, tax and customs declaration issues, control and logistic of food chains/networks, etc. 

R&D of the PERT basic model for project planning

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 75-81
Author(s):  
Tatyana Novikova ◽  
Svetlana Evdokimova ◽  
A. Novikov
Keyword(s):  
Large Time ◽  
Critical Path ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Time Cost ◽  
Work Time ◽  
Basic Model ◽  
Methods Of Evaluation ◽  
Implementation Time ◽  
And Control ◽  
Specific Project

The guiding principles of project implementation are planning. The discrepancy in time, cost, and quality between the plan and the actual implementation of the project requires management decisions supported by an analysis of the optimization of the duration of the project and the search for reserves to reduce the implementation time. For this purpose, a basic PERT model for a specific project was developed, early and late deadlines for work, time reserves, and a critical path were calculated. This work is aimed at applying methods of evaluation and analysis of projects to find optimal solutions and control the efficiency of time and costs in project planning, by varying the work on the project and the executors of the work. The results of this study showed that there are quite large time reserves for works 5-7, 7-9, 6-9, etc., which makes it possible to redistribute work between performers and allows you to vary performers during the implementation of several projects simultaneously.

New Well Intervention Means as an Answer to Offshore Minimalist Platform Concept: A Breakthrough from Mahakam, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Risal Rahman ◽  
Reyhan Hidayat ◽  
Pratika Siamsyah Kurniawati ◽  
Rantoe Marindha ◽  
Gerardus Putra Pancawisna ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Cost Optimization ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Safety Issues ◽  
Coiled Tubing ◽  
Remote Operation ◽  
Innovation And Technology ◽  
Hazardous Zone

Abstract Nowadays oil and gas industry are encouraging the independents and majors to take a fresh look at the technology and concepts required to develop marginal shallow water fields using a minimal platform approach. Innovation on well intervention means (lighter, smaller and less footprint) that fit for Offshore Minimalist Platform (OMP) is needed, including optimizing time and cost during well intervention activities in OMP. To achieve the objectives, well intervention innovation and technology are the main focuses. Intervention activities commonly done on campaign basis with several units (slickline, wireline, coiled tubing, testing) shall be integrated in a safe manner. The approach of integration shall signify these points:Identifying potential jobs in OMP to be done by well intervention methodsIdentifying necessary well intervention means and methods to support the jobs (combo unit, micro coil, hazardous zone redefinition, remote operation)Creating project planning and schedulingPerforming site visit and risk assessmentImplementation and operational executionEvaluation of overall project execution result The following results were obtained after the integration performed:No major safety issues during operationExemplary method and risk assessment for well intervention activities which can be applied for next campaignsTrials on well intervention new units and method (combo unit, micro coil, hazardous zone redefinition, remote operation), were safely performed with some optimization100% success ratio60% on supply boat arrangement35% efficiency in N2 consumption for CT operation45% efficiency in diesel consumption20% - 40% efficiency in Rig Up Time28% less in Job Cost compared to conventional unit These innovations are proven as reliable method to answer OMP challenges with main advantages on footprint and cost optimization. Through this paper, we would like to share lucrative well intervention breakthrough and innovation in OMP with measurable milestones.

Reasoning: Source of Variability in the Boothroyd and Dewhurst Assembly Time Estimation Method

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Essam Namouz ◽  
Joshua D. Summers ◽  
Gregory M. Mocko
Keyword(s):  
Engineering Students ◽  
Large Range ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Handling Time ◽  
Time Estimate ◽  
Time Analysis ◽  
Assembly Time ◽  
Time Estimates ◽  
Initial Results

This paper evaluates the effect of making a subjective decision in a design for assembly time analysis. An example is found in the first set of questions for estimating handling time of a part the user chose “parts are easy to grasp and manipulate” as opposed to “parts present handling difficulties”. The subjectivity is explored through a study of assembly time estimates generated by a class of mechanical engineering students in the time analysis of a clicker pen based on the Boothroyd and Dewhurst estimation method. The assembly times calculated by the class ranged from a minimum of 23.64 seconds to a maximum of 44.89 seconds (range of 21.25 seconds). This large range in results serves as motivation in determining the effect that answering a subjective decision has on the resulting assembly time estimate. Initial results indicate that not answering the first level of subjective questions will result in assembly time estimate within 15% of the time had the subjective question been answered. The probability density plots of the time estimates also indicates that 63% of the time, the estimated assembly time without making the subjective decision will fall within the normal distribution had the subjective decision been made. This provides evidence that there is an opportunity to reduce the amount of subjective questions that a user must answer to estimate the assembly time of a product.

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