scholarly journals Effect of quarantine and vaccination in a pandemic situation: a mathematical modelling approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 77-87
Author(s):  
D. S. A. Aashiqur Reza ◽  
Md. Noman Billah ◽  
Sharmin Sultana Shanta
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Empirical Study ◽  
Mathematical Modelling ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Modelling Approach

 When a pandemic occurs, it can cost fatal damages to human life. Therefore, it is important to understand the dynamics of a global pandemic in order to find a way of prevention. This paper contains an empirical study regarding the dynamics of the current COVID-19 pandemic. We have formulated a dynamic model of COVID-19 pandemic by subdividing the total population into six different classes namely susceptible, asymptomatic, infected, recovered, quarantined, and vaccinated. The basic reproduction number corresponding to our model has been determined. Moreover, sensitivity analysis has been conducted to find the most important parameters which can be crucial in preventing the outbreak. Numerical simulations have been made to visualize the movement of population in different classes and specifically to see the effect of quarantine and vaccination processes. The findings from our model reveal that both vaccination and quarantine are important to curtail the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. The present study can be effective in public health sectors for minimizing the burden of any pandemic.

scholarly journals Effects of (Un)lockdown on COVID-19 transmission: A mathematical study of different phases in India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rohit Kumar ◽  
Md. Zubbair Malik ◽  
Sapna Ratan Shah
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modelling ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Real Data ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Mathematical Study ◽  
The Third ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Modelling Approach

The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), identified in China at the end of the December 2019 is causing a potentially fatal respiratory syndrome (COVID-19), has meanwhile led to outbreak all over the globe. India has now become the third worst hit country globally with 16,38,870 confirmed cases and 35,747 confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 as of 31 July 2020. In this paper we have used mathematical modelling approach to study the effects of lockdowns and un-lockdowns on the pandemic evolution in India. This, study is based on SIDHARTHE model, which is an extension of classical SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model. The SIDHARTHE model distinguish between the diagnosed and undiagnosed cases, which is very important because undiagnosed individuals are more likely to spread the virus than diagnosed individuals. We have stratified the lockdowns and un-lockdowns into seven phases and have computed the basic reproduction number R0 for each phase. We have calibrated our model results with real data from 20 March 2020 to 31 July 2020. Our results demonstrate that different strategies implemented by GoI, have delayed the peak of pandemic by approximately 100 days. But due to under-diagnosis of the infected asymptomatic subpopulation, a sudden outbreak of cases can be observed in India.

scholarly journals Rich Dynamics of a Brucellosis Model with Transport

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Juan Liang ◽  
Zhirong Zhao ◽  
Can Li
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Great Influence ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Initial Values ◽  
Si Model ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Brucellosis is one of the major infectious diseases in China. In this study, we consider an SI model of animal brucellosis with transport. The basic reproduction number ℛ0 is obtained, and the stable state of the equilibria is analyzed. Numerical simulation shows that different initial values have a great influence on results of the model. In addition, the sensitivity analysis of ℛ0 with respect to different parameters is analyzed. The results reveal that the transport has dual effects. Specifically, transport can lead to increase in the number of infected animals; besides, transport can also reduce the number of infected animals in a certain range. The analysis shows that the number of infected animals can be controlled if animals are transported reasonably.

scholarly journals Meta-analysis of several epidemic characteristics of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panpan Zhang ◽  
Tiandong Wang ◽  
Sharon X. Xie
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Daily Work ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Key Characteristics ◽  
Public Health Strategies ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Work And Life

AbstractAs the COVID-19 pandemic has strongly disrupted people’s daily work and life, a great amount of scientific research has been conducted to understand the key characteristics of this new epidemic. In this manuscript, we focus on four crucial epidemic metrics with regard to the COVID-19, namely the basic reproduction number, the incubation period, the serial interval and the epidemic doubling time. We collect relevant studies based on the COVID-19 data in China and conduct a meta-analysis to obtain pooled estimates on the four metrics. From the summary results, we conclude that the COVID-19 has stronger transmissibility than SARS, implying that stringent public health strategies are necessary.

scholarly journals Mathematical Model Analysis and Simulation of Visceral Leishmaniasis, Kashgar, Xinjiang, 2004–2016

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yateng Song ◽  
Tailei Zhang ◽  
Hui Li ◽  
Kai Wang ◽  
Xiaobo Lu
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Visceral Leishmaniasis ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Parasite Infection ◽  
Parasitic Disease ◽  
Kala Azar ◽  
Si Model ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Kashgar Prefecture

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), known as kala-azar, is a serious parasitic disease. After malaria, VL is the second largest parasitic killer. This paper focuses on the VL transmission around sandflies, dogs, and people. Kashgar is located on the southwestern edge of Xinjiang, where kala-azar parasite infection occurs every year. According to the cases reported in the Kashgar Prefecture from 2004 to 2016, we proposed a dynamic model based on these three populations. The SEIR model was established for human population, the SI model was established for sandfly population, and the SI model was established for dog population. We fitted the model to cumulative cases from 2004 to 2016 for the epidemic in Kashgar and predicted that the cumulative incidence of kala-azar in Kashgar would continue to increase, but its growth rate would gradually slow down, which means that the number of cases would gradually decrease every year. We also estimated the basic reproduction number R0 = 1.76 (95% CI: 1.49–1.93). The sensitivity analysis shows that the mutual infection between sandfly and dog contributes the most to the basic reproduction number, while the transmission proportion of sandfly to the susceptible person and the mutual infection between sandfly and dog contribute the most to the number of leishmaniasis human cases. Therefore, according to the sensitivity analysis results, reducing the contact between sandflies and dogs is an effective way to reduce kala-azar.

Understanding the role of cleaning in the control of Salmonella Typhimurium in grower-finisher pigs: a modelling approach

2013 ◽  
Vol 142 (5) ◽  
pp. 1034-1049 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. GAUTAM ◽  
G. LAHODNY ◽  
M. BANI-YAGHOUB ◽  
P. S. MORLEY ◽  
R. IVANEK
Keyword(s):  
Food Safety ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Safety Concern ◽  
Infection Transmission ◽  
Sirs Model ◽  
Slaughter Age ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Modelling Approach

SUMMARYSalmonella Typhimurium (STM) infection in pigs represents a considerable food safety concern. This study used mathematical modelling to evaluate the effectiveness of cleaning (faeces removal) as a measure to control STM spread among grower-finisher pigs. A modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) model of STM transmission through a contaminated environment was developed. Infected pigs were divided into three states according to the pathogen level being shed in their faeces. Infection transmission was evaluated using the basic reproduction number (R0) and the prevalence of infectious pigs at slaughter age. Although increased frequency and efficiency of cleaning did reduce the prevalence of STM shedding at the time of slaughter, these efforts alone were not capable of eliminating the infection from the population. The level of STM faecal shedding by infectious pigs strongly influenced the infection spread and prevalence at slaughter. To control STM in pigs, cleaning should be combined with vaccination and/or isolation of high-level shedders.

scholarly journals Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on eliminating trachoma as a public health problem

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seth Blumberg ◽  
Anna Borlase ◽  
Joaquin M Prada ◽  
Anthony W Solomon ◽  
Paul Emerson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Health Problem ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
New Paradigm ◽  
Specific Implementation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

AbstractBackgroundProgress towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has been substantial, but the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted community-based control efforts.MethodsWe use a susceptible-infected model to estimate the impact of delayed distribution of azithromycin treatment on the prevalence of active trachoma.ResultsWe identify three distinct scenarios for geographic districts depending on whether the basic reproduction number and the treatment-associated reproduction number are above or below a value of one. We find that when the basic reproduction number is below one, no significant delays in disease control will be caused. However, when the basic reproduction number is above one, significant delays can occur. In most districts a year of COVID-related delay can be mitigated by a single extra round of mass drug administration. However, supercritical districts require a new paradigm of infection control because the current strategies will not eliminate disease.ConclusionIf the pandemic can motivate judicious, community-specific implementation of control strategies, global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem could be accelerated.

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