scholarly journals A Historical Analysis of the US Stock Price Index Using Empirical Mode Decomposition over 1791–2015

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aviral K. Tiwari ◽  
Arif B. Dar ◽  
Niyati Bhanja ◽  
Rangan Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Historical Analysis ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
The Us ◽  
Stock Price Index

Forecasting of stock price index using support vector regression with multivariate empirical mode decomposition

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanmei Huang ◽  
Changrui Deng ◽  
Xiaoyuan Zhang ◽  
Yukun Bao
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Stock Price Index

Purpose Despite the widespread use of univariate empirical mode decomposition (EMD) in financial market forecasting, the application of multivariate empirical mode decomposition (MEMD) has not been fully investigated. The purpose of this study is to forecast the stock price index more accurately, relying on the capability of MEMD in modeling the dependency between relevant variables. Design/methodology/approach Quantitative and comprehensive assessments were carried out to compare the performance of some selected models. Data for the assessments were collected from three major stock exchanges, namely, the standard and poor 500 index from the USA, the Hang Seng index from Hong Kong and the Shanghai Stock Exchange composite index from China. MEMD-based support vector regression (SVR) was used as the modeling framework, where MEMD was first introduced to simultaneously decompose the relevant covariates, including the opening price, the highest price, the lowest price, the closing price and the trading volume of a stock price index. Then, SVR was used to set up forecasting models for each component decomposed and another SVR model was used to generate the final forecast based on the forecasts of each component. This paper named this the MEMD-SVR-SVR model. Findings The results show that the MEMD-based modeling framework outperforms other selected competing models. As per the models using MEMD, the MEMD-SVR-SVR model excels in terms of prediction accuracy across the various data sets. Originality/value This research extends the literature of EMD-based univariate models by considering the scenario of multiple variables for improving forecasting accuracy and simplifying computability, which contributes to the analytics pool for the financial analysis community.

scholarly journals The Effect of Indonesian Government’s Debt to the US and Greece on Composite Stock Price Index in ASEAN-5 and Australia

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Nugroho Saputro
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Us ◽  
Stock Price Index

<p>The global economic crisis has become a nightmare for other countries when the crisis is originated from a multipower country. A financial crisis that hit European countries (Greece) in 2010 and the United States (US) in 2011 can be categorized as a financial crisis caused by a high state’s debt that leads to default. The response to the financial crisis is reflected in capital market players’ reactions, where other countries will respond to a particular endemic financial crisis. The objectives of this research are (1). Analyze the Impulse Response Function (IRF) of the Composite Stock Price Index of the US on Composite Stock Price Index in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, and Australia. (2). Analyze the Impulse Response Function (IRF) of the Composite Stock Price Index of Greece on the Composite Stock Price Index in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, and Australia. (3). Analyze the Forecasting Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) of the Composite Stock Price Index of Indonesia on the Composite Stock Price Index of Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, and Australia. The analysis will be conducted using VAR (Vector Autoregression). The result shows that all variables are responded to the financial crisis that happened in Greece and the US. This is reflected by the shocks created by the financial crisis in ASEAN-5 countries and Australia. On the other hand, the Composite Stock Price Index of Indonesia is also affected by Malaysia and Singapore.</p>

scholarly journals Analisa Pengaruh Perubahan Fed Fund Rate, Index Harga Saham Gabungan dan Indeks LQ45 Terhadap Nilai Tukar Dollar Amerika – Rupiah

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 12
Author(s):  
Ricky Suanto ◽  
Yanuar Yanuar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mediation Process ◽  
Average Return ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Stock Price Index ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Fund Rate

The economy in Indonesia is experiencing a decline which can be seen from the decline in the Composite Stock Price Index in Indonesia. The decline in the value of the Composite Stock Price Index and Liquid 45 Index (LQ45) affected the rupiah exchange rate against US dollars that have passed the psychological level limit of Rp. 15,000 per 1 USD. The weakening of the rupiah and the index value of the stock was triggered by an increase in interest rates set by the Federal which increase Fed Fund Rate to 2.25% in September 2018.This study aims to explain whether it is true that the announcement of changes in the central bank's fed funds rate in the United States can be related and influence the Stock Price Index and Exchange Rates in other countries, especially in Indonesia.After collecting and processing data with Path Analysis, the results show that the impact in average of the fed fund rate to the average return LQ45 index has the strongest effect compared to other variables, then the strongest effect value is produced by the effect of average return Composite Stock Price Index to the average return of the US Dollar - Rupiah which is negative 0.76. After going through the mediation process, the indirect effect that occurs between the average fed fund rate on the average return of the US Dollar – Rupiah is positive 0.451, which significantly stagnant and changes the direction of the effect compared to its direct effect of negative 0.46.

scholarly journals The Influence of The Inflation Rate and The Interest Rate of Bank Indonesia Certificates on The Composite Stock Price Index With The Us Dollar Exchange Rate As A Moderating Variable on The Indonesia Stock Exchange

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 212
Author(s):  
Dwi Septiani
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Stock Price Index ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study aims to determine how the influence of the inflation rate and the interest rate of Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBI) on the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) with the US dollar exchange rate as a moderating variable on the Indonesia Stock Exchange 2007-2016. The data of this research consists of inflation rate reports, Bank Indonesia Certificate interest rate reports, US dollar exchange rate reports and reports on the Composite Stock Price Index for 120 (one hundred and twenty) months, starting from 2007 to 2016. Methods The research used in this research is associative research with quantitative data analysis. Data calculation was performed by using multiple regression analysis of the relationship, t test, F test and the coefficient of determination R2. Meanwhile, to test the moderating variable using the interaction test. The inflation rate variable (X1) and the interest rate for Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBI) (X2) with the US dollar exchange rate (X3) as the moderating variable simultaneously have a positive and insignificant effect on the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) (Y) on the Stock Exchange. Indonesia 2007-2016. The coefficient of determination of 0.596065 means it is known that the influence of the inflation rate variable (X1) and the interest rate for Bank Indonesia Certificate (SBI) (X2) with the US dollar exchange rate (Z) as the moderating variable is 59.61% while the rest 40.39% is explained by other variables that are not explained and examined in this study. Keywords: Inflation Rate, Bank Indonesia Certificate Interest Rate, US Dollar Exchange Rate and Composite Stock Price Index

PERAMALAN INDEKS HARGA SAHAM MENGGUNAKAN ENSEMBLE EMPIRICAL MODE DECOMPOSITION (EEMD)

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 211-220
Author(s):  
Rosinar Siregar ◽  
Rukun Santoso ◽  
Puspita Kartikasari
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Polynomial Trend ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
The Future

 Stock price fluctuations make investors tend to hesitate to invest in stock markets because of an uncertain situation in the future. One method that can solve these problems is to use forecasting about the stock prices in the future. Generally, the huge size of data non linear and non stationary, and it is difficult to be interpreted in concrete. This problem can be solved by performing the decomposition process. One of decomposition method in time series data is Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD). EEMD is process decomposition data into several Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) and the IMF residue. In this research, this concept applied to data Stock Price Index in Property, Real Estate, and Construction from July 1, 2019 to July 30, 2020 as many as 272 data. Based on the results of data processing, as many as 6 IMF and IMF remaining were used as IMF forecasting and the IMF remaining in the future. The forecast was performed by choosing the best model of each IMF component and IMF remaining, used ARIMA and polynomial trend. Keywords: Time Series Data, Stock Price Index, EEMD, ARIMA, Polynomial Trend.

ANALISIS PENGARUH INFLASI, KURS DAN IHSG TERHADAP RETURN REKSA DANA SAHAM PT NIKKO SECURITIES INDONESIA PERIODE 2014-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Muhammad Rois Rois ◽  
Manarotul Fatati Fatati ◽  
Winda Ihda Magfiroh
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Equity Fund ◽  
Stock Price Index

This study aims to determine the effect of Inflation, Exchange Rate and Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) to Return of PT Nikko Securities Indonesia Stock Fund period 2014-2017. The study used secondary data obtained through documentation in the form of PT Nikko Securities Indonesia Monthly Net Asset (NAB) report. Data analysis is used with quantitative analysis, multiple linear regression analysis using eviews 9. Population and sample in this research are PT Nikko Securities Indonesia. The result of multiple linear regression analysis was the coefficient of determination (R2) showed the result of 0.123819 or 12%. This means that the Inflation, Exchange Rate and Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) variables can influence the return of PT Nikko Securities Indonesia's equity fund of 12% and 88% is influenced by other variables. Based on the result of the research, the variables of inflation and exchange rate have a negative and significant effect toward the return of PT Nikko Securities Indonesia's equity fund. While the variable of Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) has a negative but not significant effect toward Return of Equity Fund of PT Nikko Securities Indonesia

GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: THE BUBBLE EFFECT IN INDONESIA

2018 ◽  
pp. 27-33
Author(s):  
Mohammad Benny Alexandri ◽  
Raeny Dwisanti
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Price Ratio ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Book Value ◽  
The Us ◽  
Investment Opportunities ◽  
Us Financial Crisis

US and Indonesia stock markets are entering record heights without being offset by economic growthand profitability growth of their traded companies. There are several indicators for the stock marketbubble: (1) Price Ratio (Ear Ratio); (2) Price Ratio / Book (PB Ratio), the latter comparing thenominal price of one share at a market with the book value (the value of company's assets). Thecurrent PB ratio of the composite stock price index being 3.3 means that for each shares the assetvalue of which is 1 IDR, the stock would be worth 3.3 IDR. This is one of the most expensive price in the world today. Based on the above, for Indonesian stock market sharp decline is just a matter of time and waiting. This decline will be much sharper if triggered by the US financial crisis. We can also also see a bubble emerging from increasingly irrational investment attitudes. Currently, in addition to high prices for stocks and bonds, investors have started looking at investment opportunities in digital currencies. This research tries to know the potential of financial crisis and itseffect for the financial market in Indonesia. 

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