scholarly journals Brazil

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (242) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Real Gdp

The economic recovery after the 2015-16 recession has disappointed, with real GDP growing by only 1.1 percent in 2017 and 2018. Inflation is close to target, hovering around 4 percent. Monetary policy is accommodative with policy rates at the historical low of 6.5 percent. Fiscal policy was neutral in 2018 while gross public debt reached 88 percent of GDP. Financial markets have rebounded since the 2018 election.

Republic of Korea

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (64) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
New Deal ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Safety Net ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Social Safety Net ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Macroeconomic Fundamentals ◽  
Containment Strategy ◽  
High Degree

Korea entered the COVID-19 pandemic with sound macroeconomic fundamentals and a resilient financial system. The initial outbreak led to a sharp decline in economic activity and employment and generated substantial economic slack. With the help of an effective COVID-19 containment strategy and comprehensive economic policy response, the overall impact was smaller than in peers, with real GDP growth in 2020 of -1.0 percent. The economy is projected to grow 3.4 percent in 2021, albeit at varying speeds across sectors, and with a high degree of uncertainty centered on the speed of normalization in the COVID situation. Public debt has risen and deficits have widened but remain at manageable levels. Credit continues to grow rapidly, financial markets have normalized quickly, and the financial sector has remained relatively sound to date despite the pandemic. The authorities are pursuing greener and more digital growth, along with a stronger social safety net, through the Korean New Deal.

New Zealand’s Ardern will pursue more centrist agenda

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Business Sector ◽  
Minimal Effect ◽  
National Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Minor Parties ◽  
Business Confidence

Significance Unlike in Labour’s first term, the party now no longer needs the support of minor parties to govern. Its 49% win is extraordinary given the mixed-member proportional electoral system and enables Ardern to implement her policies without seeking wider political consensus. Impacts Ardern’s win was widely anticipated, so it will have minimal effect on financial markets and business confidence. There is some agricultural and business-sector concern that the Greens will wield too much power if they are involved in government. New Zealand’s borders will remain closed for now: eliminating COVID-19 from the community is Ardern’s strategy. Ardern will invest in trades training and infrastructure, but aggressive monetary policy will still be key to economic recovery. The weakness of the centre-right National Party is letting the libertarian ACT New Zealand rise in popularity.

scholarly journals THE NEW CONSENSUS UNDER STRESS: THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND THE FISCAL POLICY COMEBACK

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (75) ◽  
Author(s):  
Flávio Arantes ◽  
Antonio Carlos Macedo e Silva
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Window Of Opportunity ◽  
Paper Briefly ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
Stable Path ◽  
Policy Proposals

From the 1980s, mainstream macroeconomic thinking experienced a strongconvergence in methodological assumptions and policy proposals for more than twodecades. This “New Macroeconomics Consensus” was characterized by the role playedby the monetary policy in macroeconomic adjustment. Fiscal policy was set aside; itshould only be concerned with keeping public debt in a stable path in order to ensurethe “economic fundamentals”. However, the need for active and unconventionalpolicy measures during the 2008 global economic crisis brought fiscal policy back tothe mainstream debate. This paper briefly describes this convergence, discussing therole it assigned for fiscal policy before the crisis, and then examines the issues the postcrisis debate concentrated on, showing how it differs from the previous mainstreamconception of fiscal policy. We suggest that mainstream limitations to deal with fiscalpolicy may have opened a window of opportunity for a broader review of its role as apolicy tool.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Policy at a Crossroads

2021 ◽  
Vol 65 (7) ◽  
pp. 5-15
Author(s):  
A. Kholopov
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Negative Interest Rates

The article examines macroeconomic policy options for advanced economies to respond to adverse shocks in the environment of very low interest rates and very high levels of public debt, when the scope for using conventional policy tools is limited. The standard transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the ELB conditions stops working normally, and the economy faces the “liquidity trap” effect. The deployment by central banks of unconventional monetary tools (forward guidance, quantitative easing, and negative interest rates) after global financial crisis was helpful in combatting the downturn, but carries risk of possible side effects. Large-scale purchases of financial assets lead to significant increase in central banks’ balance sheets, and this creates a threat to future financial stability and central bank independence. Negative interest rates can have detrimental effects on bank profitability and be contractionary through bank lending. There is a consensus that today fiscal policy has to play a major role in stabilizing the business cycle. But the effectiveness of conventional tools of discretional fiscal policy is uncertain because of long political lags and small spending multiplier. Existing automatic fiscal stabilizers are focused on social protection goals and not on macroeconomic stabilization. Thus, the newly proposed measures for rules-based fiscal stimulus (asymmetric semiautomatic stabilizers – tax or spending measures triggered by the crossing of some statistical threshold, e.g. a high unemployment rate) and unconventional fiscal policy (the use of consumption taxes to increase inflation expectations) have become the object of active discussion. Here lies the danger in the fusion of monetary and fiscal policy: central banks’ operations are becoming increasingly quasi-fiscal, aimed at financing budget deficit, and functions of monetary policy are proposed to assign to fiscal policy. Besides, the expansion of fiscal stimulus threatens financial stability in the future, as it leads to increase in public debt and narrows a country’s fiscal space.

Market nerves roil Turkey and Central Europe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Inflection Point ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Guidance

Significance Markets have taken badly the Fed's more hawkish policy guidance for 2017, not expecting such a shift in monetary policy so soon. The shift in US monetary policy comes just as the ECB is preparing the ground for the gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus. While Turkish assets are the most vulnerable partly because of the severe escalation in political risk, the Polish zloty is also at risk thanks mainly to its status as one of the most liquid EM currencies. Impacts Investors see global financial markets at an inflection point as monetary policy gives way to fiscal policy as the main source of stimulus. This monetary-to-fiscal shift will fuel uncertainty about the direction of asset prices. Rising oil prices will allay concerns about deflation in the euro-area. As major Emerging Europe currencies suffer, the ruble is rising against the dollar amid oil price rises and Trump’s Russia-friendly remarks.

Empirical appraisal of fiscal stability: the case of Ghana

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (5) ◽  
pp. 753-779
Author(s):  
Nana Kwame Akosah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Poor Countries

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to appraise the stability of Ghana’s fiscal policy by assessing government’s reaction in the past to rising public debt over the last three decades. Design/methodology/approach – Using quarterly data spanning 1990Q1-2013Q2, the study evaluated the mean reverting properties of Ghana’s public debt and also estimate the fiscal policy reaction function. The complementary estimation techniques include Pesaran et al. (2001) bound testing cointegration test, differencing method and also Granger two-step cointegration methods. Findings – Using quarterly data from 1990Q1 to 2013Q2, the study found the fiscal policy to be unstable in the 1990s, necessitating the adoption of Heavily Indebted Poor Countries’ initiative in 2001. The fiscal situation however relatively stabilizes afterwards following the external debt relief in 2001. Nevertheless, the study reveals that the recent fiscal policy (since 2006) seems to be confronted with tremendous fiscal pressures, exacerbated by fiscal excesses during election cycles as well as excessive domestic and external borrowings. In addition, the economic growth-debt link was found to be weak, though debt appears to adversely affect economic growth. Research limitations/implications – The study does not thoroughly explore the possibility of non-linear relationship between public debt and primary balance. Also, the result could be different using different data frequencies. Practical implications – The state of government finance has implications on the monetary policy and economic growth prospects of an economy. As an inflation targeting central bank since 2002, a successful monetary policy implementation that reins in inflation requires fiscal policy that curtails fiscal volatilities originating from imprudent behaviour of government. Therefore, the looming fiscal pressures in recent times would impair the effective implementation of the inflation targeting framework by the central bank, and also retard economic growth as the bulk of these expenditures are usually recurrent in the case of Ghana. Originality/value – This is the first paper to employ complementary econometric techniques to empirically evaluate fiscal sustainability in Ghana.

scholarly journals Government Policies for Economic Recovery and Handling COVID -19 Virus in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 140-146
Author(s):  
Desy Tri Anggarini ◽  
Ani Rakhmanita
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
System Stability ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
The World ◽  
Ministry Of Finance ◽  
The Government

WHO establishes coronavirus (coronavirus disease, COVID-19), as the Public Health Anxiety of the World on January 30, 2020. The increase in countries affected by the Covid-19 virus is widespread throughout the world such as America, Spain and Italy making the world economic situation even more get worse. Some institutions predict the weakening of the world economy. The contraction of the global economy is still ongoing, uncertainty in the global financial markets has declined as the sluggish spread of COVID-19. The limitation of economic activity as a step for handling COVID-19 risks reducing global economic growth in 2020. Research on Government Policy for  Economic Recovery and handling  COVID-19 Virus in Indonesia, taking stimulus from fiscal and monetary policies undertaken by the Bank Indonesian , Ministry of Finance and Regulations Government 2020, with descriptive qualitative research methods using secondary data such as literature books, review studies from the internet and policies from the government and related ministries. The results of this study have carried out monetary policy through Bank Indonesia, and fiscal policy through the Ministry of finance and supported by Government Regulation of the Republic of Indonesia Number 23 of 2020 concerning the Implementation of the National Economic Recovery Program in the Context of Supporting State Financial Policies for Handling the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) and / or Facing Threats That Harm National Economy and / or Financial System Stability and Save the National Economy. Keywords: Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Covid -19, Corona Virus

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