scholarly journals Ekonomske posledice španske groznice (1918–1920): skica za ekonomsku istoriografiju jedne pandemije

2021 ◽  
Vol 69 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-170
Author(s):  
Boris Begović
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Technological Progress ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Labour Supply ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Intergenerational Transfer ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
The Impact

The aim of the paper is to explore the economic outcomeс of the Spanish flu pandemic and to systemise the insights in such a way that they can be used for shedding light on the economic outcomes of COVID-19 pandemic. It was demonstrated that in the short run the impact of the Spanish flu was a significant one-off drop of the output due to the significant decrease in labour supply augmented by the decrease in aggregate demand. In the long run the Spanish flu decreased the level of available human capital in two ways: directly due to the excess mortality, and indirectly due to the intergenerational transfer of lower human capital and the health of mothers during pregnancy. The decrease in human capital generated adverse consequences on economic growth and these consequences increase with technological progress, which demands a higher level of human capital.

scholarly journals TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM INDIA

2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 188-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye ◽  
Wee-Yeap Lau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The main objective of this study is to develop first time trade openness index and use this index to examine the link between trade openness and economic growth in case of India. This study employs a new endogenous growth model for theoretical support, auto-regressive distributive lag model and rolling window regression method in order to determine long run and short run association between trade openness and economic growth. Further granger causality test is used to determine the long run and short run causal direction. The results reveal that human capital and physical capital are positively related to economic growth in the long run. On the other hand, trade openness index negatively impacts on economic growth in the long run. The new evidence is provided by the rolling window regression results i.e. the impact of trade openness index on economic growth is not stable throughout the sample. In the short run trade openness index is positively related to economic growth. The result of granger causality test confirms the validity of trade openness-led growth and human capital-led growth hypothesis in the short run and long run.

Does female human capital contribute to economic growth in India?: an empirical investigation

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (11) ◽  
pp. 1506-1521 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madhu Sehrawat ◽  
A.K. Giri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
Education And Health ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of female human capital on economic growth in the Indian economy during 1970-2014. Design/methodology/approach The paper employs Ng-Perron unit root test to check the order of integration of the variables. The study also used ARDL-bounds testing approach and the unrestricted error-correction model to investigate co-integration in the long run and short run; Granger’s causality test to investigate the direction of the causality; and variance decomposition test to capture the influence of each variable on economic growth. Findings The study constructed a composite index for both male and female human capitals by taking education and health as a proxy for human capital. The empirical findings reveal that female human capital is significant and positively related to economic growth in both short run and long run, while male human capital is positive but insignificant to the economic growth; same is the case for physical capital, it implies that such investment regarding female human capital needs to be reinforced. Further, there is an evidence of a long-run causal relationship from female human capital, male human capital and physical capital to economic growth variable. The results of variance decomposition show the importance of the female human capital variable is increasing over the time and it exerts the largest influence in change in economic growth. Research limitations/implications The empirical findings suggest that the Indian economy has to pay attention equally on the development of female human capital for short-run as well as long-run growth of the economy. This implies that the policy makers should divert more expenditure for developing support for female education and health. Originality/value To the best of authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to study the relationship between female human capital and economic growth in the context of the Indian economy.

scholarly journals The Impact of Human Capital on Economic Growth in Ethiopia: Evidence from Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-73
Author(s):  
Mekoro Arega
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Secondary School ◽  
Skilled Workers ◽  
School Enrolment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Secondary School Enrolment ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The general objective of the study was to analyze the impact of human capital development on economic growth in Ethiopia over the period 1974/5 -2018/9. The econometric models of Johnesan cointegration, VECM and causality tests were applied to analysis short-run and long-run impact of Human capital on Economic growth. The result of the error correction model shows that the model is adjusting at a relatively stable rate of 74.3% towards the long-run equilibrium. Furthermore, the result shows that human capital proxied of (primary and secondary school enrolments) and active labour force have a positive statistical significant long run and short-run effect on economic growth in Ethiopia. Such findings are consistent with the endogenous growth theories which argue that an improvement in human capital (skilled workers) improves productivity. In addition, results reveal that education expenditure and life expectancy at birth have a positive and statistically significant long-run effect on economic growth. However, the expenditure on health, secondary school enrolment and official development assistance are statically significant and have an unexpected negative impact on long-run economic growth. Furthermore, the short-run causality tests results reveal that public expenditure on education, primary school enrolment, secondary school enrolment and RGDP have unidirectional causal effects. Hence policymakers and/or the government give prioritize to create institutional capacity that increase school enrolment and strengthening the infrastructure or investment of educational and health institutions that produce quality of manpower to increase productivity.

scholarly journals The Impact of Gender-Specific Human Capital on Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Turkey

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (s1) ◽  
pp. 15-30
Author(s):  
Hacer Simay Karaalp-Orhan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Arithmetic Average ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Education Indicators ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this study, how the human capital disaggregated by gender and physical capital affects economic growth in Turkey is examined for the period of 1971–2015. By using an arithmetic average of health and education indicators as a proxy of human capital formation, an attempt was made to examine the relationship between the human capital and economic growth under the scope of gender inequality. In this context, an ARDL-bounds testing approach and the unrestricted error-correction model were used to investigate the co-integration in the long- run and short run. Further, the causality test was also conducted to identify the direction of the causality between the variables. The main finding indicates that male human capital has been the central variable affected by both economic growth and physical capital. On one hand, a significant positive relationship was found between the economic growth and physical capital and male human capital in the long-run, while on the other hand, the female human capital was associated negatively to the economic growth. There is no evidence of causality that links the female human capital to other variables. This result suggests that women are not well utilized in the Turkish economy and the country suffers from untapped potential of women.

Bridging Household Income Gap: Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Mohammad Zuhairie Zainudin ◽  
Ong Hway-Boon ◽  
Chong Choy-Yoke
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Technological Progress ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Income Gap ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The purpose of this paper is to examine the long run and the short run relationship between household income gap, physical capital, human capital, and technological progress in Malaysia. Based on the Solow's growth model, this study applied the panel cointegration estimation of the full modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), as well as the Granger causality analysis. The result showed that there is a short run and long run relationship running from physical capital, human capital, technological progress towards the income gap of M40 and B40 groups of households. This study is unique because it addresses the income gap between a group of households of the bottom 40% and middle 40% across all states in Malaysia.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

An Econometric Analysis on the Relationship between Globalisation and Inequality in South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-89
Author(s):  
Jacques de Jongh
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Global Integration ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Distribution Of Resources ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Globalisation has had an unprecedented impact on the development and well-being of societies across the globe. Whilst the process has been lauded for bringing about greater trade specialisation and factor mobility many have also come to raise concerns on its impact in the distribution of resources. For South Africa in particular this has been somewhat of a contentious issue given the country's controversial past and idiosyncratic socio-economic structure. Since 1994 though, considerable progress towards its global integration has been made, however this has largely coincided with the establishment of, arguably, the highest levels of income inequality the world has ever seen. This all has raised several questions as to whether a more financially open and technologically integrated economy has induced greater within-country inequality (WCI). This study therefore has the objective to analyse the impact of the various dimensions of globalisation (economic, social and political) on inequality in South Africa. Secondary annual time series from 1990 to 2018 were used sourced from the World Bank Development indicators database, KOF Swiss Economic Institute and the World Inequality database. By using different measures of inequality (Palma ratios and distribution figures), the study employed two ARDL models to test the long-run relationships with the purpose to ensure the robustness of the results. Likewise, two error correction models (ECM) were used to analyse the short-run dynamics between the variables. As a means of identifying the casual effects between the variables, a Toda-Yamamoto granger causality analysis was utilised. Keywords: ARDL, Inequality, Economic Globalisation; Social Globalisation; South Africa

The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Stock Market in the United States (U.S); Evidence from Linear ARDL Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-132
Author(s):  
Aref Emamian
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the stock market in the United States (US), were used. By employing the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Annual data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, the results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real Gross Domestic Product and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Keywords: ARDL, monetary policy, fiscal policy, stock market, United States

scholarly journals Economic Development, CO2 Emissions and Energy Use Nexus-Evidence from the Danube Region Countries

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3165
Author(s):  
Eva Litavcová ◽  
Jana Chovancová
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Mutual Cooperation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Danube Region ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study is to examine the empirical cointegration, long-run and short-run dynamics and causal relationships between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in 14 Danube region countries over the period of 1990–2019. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing methodology was applied for each of the examined variables as a dependent variable. Limited by the length of the time series, we excluded two countries from the analysis and obtained valid results for the others for 26 of 36 ARDL models. The ARDL bounds reliably confirmed long-run cointegration between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Economic growth and energy consumption have a significant impact on carbon emissions in the long-run in all of these four countries; in the short-run, the impact of economic growth is significant in Austria. Likewise, when examining cointegration between energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in the short-run, a significant contribution of CO2 emissions on energy consumptions for seven countries was found as a result of nine valid models. The results contribute to the information base essential for making responsible and informed decisions by policymakers and other stakeholders in individual countries. Moreover, they can serve as a platform for mutual cooperation and cohesion among countries in this region.

scholarly journals Mobile Money Use: The Impact of Macroeconomic Policy and Regulation

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Lorna Katusiime
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Mobile Money ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic policy and regulatory environment on mobile money usage. Specifically, we develop an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the effect of key macroeconomic variables and mobile money tax on mobile money usage in Uganda. Using monthly data spanning the period March 2009 to September 2020, we find that in the short run, mobile money usage is positively affected by inflation while financial innovation, exchange rate, interest rates and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage in Uganda. In the long run, mobile money usage is positively affected by economic activity, inflation and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis while mobile money customer balances, interest rate, exchange rate, financial innovation and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document