Népesség, szelekció, oktatás

Összefoglaló. Írásunk a középiskolai és a felsőoktatási felvételi adatokat felhasználva mutatja be az elmúlt évtizedek beiskolázási trendjeit, fókuszálva az elmúlt másfél-két évtizedben végbemenő folyamatokra. A középiskolai beiskolázás adatai szerint egyrészt megállapítható, hogy a rendszerváltás utáni trend 2011 után megtört, a középiskolás korosztályon belül egyre csökken azok aránya, akik részt vesznek valamilyen középfokú képzésben, másrészt a képzésben maradók preferenciái ugyan az általános képzés felé törekednek, de a felvettek számát és arányát tekintve mégis a szakképzésben tanulnak többen. A felsőoktatásba újonnan bekerülők jelentős hányadát adják a frissen érettségizettek, akiknek a létszáma az utóbbi 15 évben folyamatosan csökken, ezzel egyidejűleg azonban a részidős képzésekben tanulók létszáma is meredeken visszaesett. Summary. The study presents enrolment trends using secondary and tertiary enrolment data, focusing on trends over the last two decades. The data on secondary school enrolment shows that, on the one hand, the post-transition trend was broken after 2011, with the proportion of secondary school students enrolled in some form of upper secondary education decreasing, and on the other hand, while the preferences of those who remain in education are tending towards general education, more people are enrolled in vocational education and training in terms of both the number and the proportion of enrolments. A significant proportion of new entrants to higher education are recent graduates from secondary education, whose number have been declining steadily over the last 15 years, but at the same time the number of part-time students in higher education has also fallen sharply.

Human capital flight and output growth nexus: evidence from Nigeria

Purpose Human capital flight from developing countries to developed nations has been rising and giving concerns to governments and scholars alike. This paper aims to explore the impact migration from Nigeria has on economic output growth by focusing on the migration rate, remittances, population growth and secondary school enrolment. This has not received adequate attention in the literature, as many papers have primarily focused on the impact of remittances on economic growth. Design/methodology/approach Leveraging on the macro-level approach to migration, remittances and the economy, this research considers the nexus among the human capital flight and output growth variables by using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method of analysis for time series data between 1986 and 2018. Findings The net migration rate from Nigeria was found from the empirical analysis to be more disadvantageous for the economy, given its negative relationship with economic growth despite the large volume of foreign incomes (remittances). It also shows that secondary school enrolment positively and significantly impacted the Nigerian growth rate in the long run. Originality/value This research has widened the use of variables by combining net migration rate, remittances from abroad, population growth rate and secondary school enrolment to obtain a more robust outcome with implications for research and practice.

The Impact of Human Capital on Economic Growth in Ethiopia: Evidence from Time Series Analysis

The general objective of the study was to analyze the impact of human capital development on economic growth in Ethiopia over the period 1974/5 -2018/9. The econometric models of Johnesan cointegration, VECM and causality tests were applied to analysis short-run and long-run impact of Human capital on Economic growth. The result of the error correction model shows that the model is adjusting at a relatively stable rate of 74.3% towards the long-run equilibrium. Furthermore, the result shows that human capital proxied of (primary and secondary school enrolments) and active labour force have a positive statistical significant long run and short-run effect on economic growth in Ethiopia. Such findings are consistent with the endogenous growth theories which argue that an improvement in human capital (skilled workers) improves productivity. In addition, results reveal that education expenditure and life expectancy at birth have a positive and statistically significant long-run effect on economic growth. However, the expenditure on health, secondary school enrolment and official development assistance are statically significant and have an unexpected negative impact on long-run economic growth. Furthermore, the short-run causality tests results reveal that public expenditure on education, primary school enrolment, secondary school enrolment and RGDP have unidirectional causal effects. Hence policymakers and/or the government give prioritize to create institutional capacity that increase school enrolment and strengthening the infrastructure or investment of educational and health institutions that produce quality of manpower to increase productivity.

Applying an Evolutionary Growth Theory for Sustainable Economic Development: The Effect of International Students as Tourists

In this globalized era of strict competition, all actors in countries must focus on their strengths for continuous growth, which would presumably lead to sustainable economic development. Amongst the three components of sustainable development, this paper focuses on the economic and social aspects. Many countries are becoming service-oriented for economic growth. Education is a form of human capital investment which significantly contributes to countries’ national income via students, particularly international cross-border students in higher education institutions. While endogenous growth models dismiss the importance of governments in the growth process, in this paper, the Keynesian and new growth theories are combined to form an evolutionary growth theory. This research aims to analyze the short and long-term relationships between macroeconomic variables, international students, and their impact on the gross domestic product (GDP) of a small island with the intention of policy implications for stakeholders to reach or maintain sustainable economic development. Using an evolutionary growth theory with 34 years of time-series data on quarterly base, the vector autocorrection (VAR) model helps reveal the short and long-run relationships as well as impacts on the economy for sustainable economic growth. The results confirmed a long-run relationship via cointegration. Moreover, they approved bidirectional causality between student numbers, general secondary school enrolment, and GDP. Findings suggest significant implications for all stakeholders, particularly for higher education institutions, the government, and local citizens due to the importance of micro and macro-economic variables’ effect on GDP. The results prove that educated human capital contributes to economic growth. Governments should continue their existing strategy regarding secondary school enrolment rates as it is found to be the most effective variable in the long-run. As education, knowledge, and information transfer rises, it contributes to sustainable development through promoting social stability. Limitation of the unavailability of the total yearly population, GDP was opted instead of GDP per capita.

MIGRANTS’ REMITTANCES AND PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON EDUCATION NEXUS: EVIDENCE FROM AN OIL-DEPENDENT ECONOMY

This study examined migrants’ remittances, public expenditure on education and their implications for educational development in Nigeria, using Secondary School enrolment rates (SSER) as a proxy for the latter for the period 1981 to 2017. The study utilised Cointegration and error correction modelling approach in order to minimise the likelihood of producing explosive regression estimates. The empirical findings of the study indicate that Migrants’ remittances received, Public expenditures on Education and Per Capita Income growth rate exert statistically significant positive impacts on educational development in the country, while the association turned negative in the case of population growth rate. The fundamental role played by both migrant’s remittances received and Public expenditures on Education in stimulating educational development was evidently established in the study. The study therefore recommends, among others, the adoption of strategic measures that will help boost the rate of school enrolment in the country by encouraging migrants’ remittances through continuous engagement of Nigerians in the Diaspora in the country’s political and socio-economic affairs, progressive increment in budgetary allocations to the nation’s education sector, as well as enhancing the per capita income of the country through investments in key sectors of the nation’s economy.

Impact of Health Expenditures on Labor Force Participation: Evidence from Pakistan

The current study focused on health expenditures and labor force participation linkages taking Pakistan as a sample case. Data sample cover the period from 1972 to 2013. Economic survey of Pakistan and WDI were consulted for data collection and the estimated results were extracted by using Autoregressive Distributive Lag Model which revealed that there is positive association between health and labor force participation rate in Pakistan. Amongst the other variables, secondary school enrolment and Investment also has positive impacts on labor force participation in both long and short span of time. Life expectancy has adverse effects and trade openness is insignificant in a model. It is suggested that to encourage higher labor force participation government may increase its expenditures on basic health issues along with investment friendly policies. Furthermore it is also suggested that education may also be encouraged for productive labor in a country.

Flexible education in Australia

Purpose The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to explore the extent to which the South Australian flexible learning option (FLO) secondary school enrolment strategy supports some of the most vulnerable and disengaged students to simultaneously engage in secondary- and higher-education, skills and work-based learning; second, to explore the degree to which this FLO enrolment strategy addresses the United Nations (UN) principles of responsible management education and 17 sustainable development goals. Design/methodology/approach The approach includes a practice perspective, field-notes and documents analysis. Findings This paper finds the flexibility inherent in the FLO enrolment strategy goes some way to addressing inequity in education outcomes amongst those who traditionally disengage from education and work-based learning. Findings also highlight ways in which the FLO enrolment strategy addresses some of the UN principals and 17 goals. Research limitations/implications This paper supports the work of HESWBL by calling for future research into the long-term benefits of flexible education strategies that support HESWBL, through exploring the benefits to young people, from their perspective, with a view to providing accountability. Social implications The paper offers an example of a way a practice perspective can explore an education strategy that addresses “wicked problems” (Rittel and Webber, 1973). Currently, “wicked problems” that pervade member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development include intergenerational poverty, under-education and unemployment. Originality/value This paper is valuable because it explores from a practice perspective, how a secondary education enrolment strategy supports vulnerable students engage in their secondary schooling, while simultaneously supporting students achieve higher education, skills and work-based learning.