scholarly journals The Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on Bank Loan Interest Rates in Turkey Authors

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 70-86
Author(s):  
Yıldız Münevvere
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Mortgage Loan ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Loan Interest Rates

The purpose of the study to reveal how interest rates on loans offered to consumers by banks in Turkey are affected by macroeconomic factors. For this purpose, the personal loan interest rate is considered as the consumer loan interest rate, mortgage loan interest rate and vehicle loan interest rate. Macroeconomic factors, inflation, gold, exchange rate and money supply are included in the analysis. Three models have been established using monthly data for the period January 2009-June 2020. Firstly, cointegration test was applied to the models and it was determined that there is at least one cointegration relationship in each model. Long-term estimation results for the models are obtained by using the FMOLS method. In general, it was observed that the increase in the exchange rate tended to increase the bank loan interest rates, while the increase in the money supply lowered the bank loan interest rates. As a result of the causality analysis, bidirectional causality relationship from consumer loan interest rate to money supply and inflation, unidirectional causality from interest rate to gold price, unidirectional causality relationship from exchange rate to interest rate was determined. Unidirectional causality relationship from mortgage loan interest rate to money supply, unidirectional causality from exchange rate to interest rate was found. While it was determined that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between vehicle loan interest rate and money supply, gold price and inflation. It is expected that these results may guide banks and policymakers to determine interest rate policies.

Cross-border merger and acquisition activities in Asia: the role of macroeconomic factors

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 307-329 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yusnidah Ibrahim ◽  
Jimoh Olajide Raji
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Merger And Acquisition ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Asean Countries

Purpose This paper aims to examine the influence of key macroeconomic factors on the inward and outward acquisition activities of six ASEAN (ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries, namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, over the 1996-2015 period. Design/methodology/approach The study uses alternative panel data methods, including pooled mean group, mean group and dynamic fixed-effect estimators. Findings The results indicate that gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate, exchange rate, money supply and inflation rate are the most important macroeconomic factors explaining the trends of cross-border mergers and acquisition outflows of the ASEAN-6 countries. Specifically, GDP, money supply and inflation rate have significant positive relationships with acquisition outflows, while interest rate and exchange rate exert significant negative influence. On the other hand, the authors find four significant macroeconomic factors explaining the trends of the inward acquisitions. Essentially, GDP, money supply and inflation rate have significant positive impacts on inward acquisitions, while the impact of exchange rate is negatively significant. Research limitations/implications Unavailability of data limits this study to pool six sample countries from ASEAN, instead of ten representative member countries. Practical implications The results of this study can signal to firms or investors, involving in cross-border mergers and acquisitions, where to direct foreign resources flows. Moreover, having the knowledge about the relative levels of market size and other macroeconomic factors in both home and host countries can be of great importance for investment decision. Therefore, policymakers of ASEAN countries should make appropriate macroeconomic policies that can stimulate inward and outward acquisitions. Originality/value The main contribution of this paper is that it is the first to present the analysis of macroeconomic influences on the trends of inward and outward merger and acquisition activities in six ASEAN countries.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Dynamics and the Manufacturing Output in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 43-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adegbemi Babatunde Onakoya
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Preliminary Evaluation ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis paper examined the impact of the changes in the macroeconomic factors on the output of the manufacturing sector in Nigeria from 1981 to 2015. Preliminary evaluation of the data was conducted using both descriptive statistics and stationarity evaluation. The test indicated that not all the variables are normal. The occurrence of order integration at first level difference necessitated the deployment of the Johansen cointegration test. The findings revealed no short run association among manufacturing output and each of GDP, exchange rate, broad money supply and unemployment rate. Negative relationship existed amongst inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, broad money supply on one hand, and manufacturing output. The inflation rate and interest rate, were statistically insignificant. However, significant and positive relationship existed between GDP of the previous year and unemployment on the one hand and manufacturing output on the other, at 5 percent level. The results showed that manufacturing was a veritable engine of economic growth. The post estimation tests showed presence of serial correlation but evidence of heteroscedasticity existed which, made the model inefficient, but its estimator is still unbiased. The study recommended the harmonization of both fiscal and monetary policies for the attainment of macroeconomic stability and avoidance of rapid policy summersaults.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Inflasi dan Suku Bunga dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah serta Jumlah Uang Beredar terhadap Return Saham

FORUM EKONOMI ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 148
Author(s):  
La Rahmad Hidayat ◽  
Djoko Setyadi ◽  
Musdalifah Azis
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Significant Variable ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Relationship Of

This research is to examine the effect of inflation, interest rate, exchange rate and money supply on stock returns LQ 45 listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The object of this research is the return - shares out of the category LQ 45 years of research by 2010-2015. Its Sampling using purposive sampling and get the 24 stocks that meet the criteria of 45 stocks LQ 45 as a sample. Thus, the number of samples studied was 144 shares for 6 years. The method used is multiple linear regression analyzes that examine whether or not a significant variable - the independent variable on the dependent variable. Based on the results known that R indicates that there is an ideal relationship of Inflation, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Money Supply toward to Return shares in LQ 45. R square indicates that the variable inflation rates, interest rates, the value of exchange rate and the money supply can explain the variable return shares at LQ 45 index. Based on F test indicates the same that the variable inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate and money supply have a significant influence on shares returns in LQ 45 listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange. The results of T test showed that the rate of inflation significant and negative effect on shares returns and interest rates positive and significant effect on shares returns while exchange Rate and the money supply no significant effect on shares returns in LQ 45 Listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange.Keywords: stock return, Inflation, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, Money Supply.

scholarly journals DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN FISKAL DAN MONETER DALAM PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ada Tua Pardamean
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The trade-off between achieving price stability and economic growth, especially in the short term is the impact of a decision-making dilemma for the conduct of fiscal policy or monetary policy in the Indonesian economy. The problem is what lies behind this study and aimed to determine the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on the Indonesian economy. The data used are secondary data sourced from Bank Indonesia and BPS variables namely GDP, Government Expenditure, Tax Revenue, Export, Exchange Rate, Money Supply, Interest Rates for time series from 2000 to 2012. Data analysis was performed using Two Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimation with multiple linear regression models using Eviews 5.0 program assistance. The results of this study it can be concluded that the simultaneous equation model on IS to variable Interest Rate and a significant negative effect on GDP of Indonesia, while the Government Expenditure variable (G0), Export (X0) and Tax Revenue (Tx) and Exchange Rate (ER) effect positively and significantly to Indonesia's GDP, while the equation for the LM model of the Money Supply variables significantly and negatively related to Indonesia's GDP increased at a rate statistically a = 10% and for variable interest rate is not significantly to Indonesia's GDP.

scholarly journals Re-Examining the Nexus between Exchange and Interest Rates in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 47-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Mautin Oke ◽  
Koye Gerry Bokana ◽  
Olatunji Abdul Shobande
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Weak Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
National Output ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Nigeria has experienced somersault of foreign exchange policies by the Central Bank. One policy concern in recent times is to have an appropriate target of the exchange and interest rates. Therefore, this paper seeks to provide a foundation for the targeting of an appropriate exchange and interest rates for the country. Using the Johansen Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Mechanism approaches, it specifically examines the relationships among Nigeria’s weak exchange rate, its local rate of interest and world interest rate. Contrary to many studies, a control measure involving inclusion of inflation, money supply and national output in the model is done. The analysis showed an equilibrium association between exchange rate and interest rate-cum-other variables and steady rectification of deviance from long-run stability over a sequence of incomplete short-run modifications. Increase in domestic and world interest rate, inflation, money supply and GDPat equilibrium would strengthen the exchange rate. Besides, further findings showed some bidirectional causal associations among the variables. By long-run implication, the targeting of an appropriate exchange rate in Nigeria requires a tightened monetary policy that is not inflation and growth biased. However, increase in world interest rate, money supply and inflation rate must be moderate in order not to worsen the exchange rate as suggested by the short-run result. 

scholarly journals Money supply, interest rate, exchange rate and oil price influence on inflation in South Africa

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 594-605 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raphael Tabani Mpofu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Development Strategy ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables

Price stability is critical for South Africa’s economic development strategy, and, based on previous studies, to effectively achieve this, requires a good understanding of the relationship between inflation and selected macroeconomic variables of broad money supply, interest rate, exchange rate and oil price. Monthly data are employed from January, 1999 through September, 2010. To determine this relationship, the independent variables were tested for multicollinearity, and thereafter a multiple regression model was developed. The findings from the study show that approximately 97% of the consumer price index movement is explained by the four macroeconomic variables. The study confirms that money supply and exchange rates have a strong positive relationship with inflation and have to be managed. Interest rates and oil price, on the other hand, have a significant negative relationship with inflation and should be part of a macroeconomic policy framework. This requires managing the delicate balance between a desirable level of inflation in support of economic growth and development and an unacceptable level of inflation that leads to price instability.

scholarly journals Determinants of Stock Market Performance

NCC Journal ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 134-142
Author(s):  
Ramjee Rakhal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Major Objective ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Stock Market Performance

This paper investigates the effect of selected macroeconomic factors viz. remittances, money supply, exchange rate, and interest rate on stock market performance based on literatures available in international and Nepalese context. The major objective of this paper is to find out the new area of research in Nepalese perspective with the help of literature review. The study demonstrates that remittance and money supplypositively affect the stock market whereas interest rate and exchange rate negatively affect the stock market performance. However, there is lack of consensus on the effect of each macroeconomic variables on stock market performance as it has number of literatures available which are similar as well as opposite to these findings. Thus, similar study can be extended employing different methodology with this combination of variables in Nepalese context that may better describe and analyze the performance of Nepalese stock market and helps to reduce the confusion among the literatures.NCC JournalVol. 3, No. 1, 2018, page: 134-142

scholarly journals Kinerja Keuangan dan Faktor Ekonomi Makro sebagai Penentu Return Saham Perusahaan pada Jakarta Islamic Index

1970 ◽  
Vol 4 (01) ◽  
pp. 63-72
Author(s):  
Ressy Thusda Permala ◽  
Arles P. Ompusunggu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Return On Investment ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Earnings Per Share ◽  
The Exchange Rate

ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of return on investment, earnings per share, interest rate, exchange rate, inflation and gross domestic product on stock returns in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The sample used were 9 issuers registered in the Jakarta Islamic Index during the period of 2008- 2014. The analysis was done by multiple regression test. The results showed that the exchange rate and the gross domestic product had a significant effect on stock return, while return on investment, earnings per share, interest rate, and inflation had no effect. Based on the results of research macroeconomic factors determining stock returns on samples tested are the exchange rate and gross domestic product, but interest rates and inflation have no effect. The same is true in earnings per share and operational performance also does not affect stock returns. ABSTRAK Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis pengaruh return on investment, earning per share, suku bunga, kurs, inflasi dan product domestic bruto terhadap return saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Sampel yang digunakan sebanyak 9 emiten yang terdaftar dalam Jakarta Islamic Index selama periode 2008-2014. Analisis dilakukan dengan uji regresi berganda. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kurs dan product domestic bruto berpengaruh signifikan terhadap return saham, sedangkan return on investment, earning per share, suku bunga, dan inflasi tidak berpengaruh. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian faktor ekonomi makro penentu return saham pada sampel yang diuji adalah kurs dan product domestic bruto, tetapi suku bunga dan inflasi tidak berpengaruh. Hal yang sama terbukti pada laba per saham dan kinerja operasional juga tidak mempengaruhi return saham. JEL Classification: E44, L16

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR (M1), SUKU BUNGA SBI, NILAI TUKAR SUKU BUNGA DEPOSITO TERHADAP TINGKAT INFLASI

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 43
Author(s):  
Fadli Ferdiansyah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Significant Positive Effect ◽  
Significant Negative Effect ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

<p>Inflation is one of the effects of a prolonged economic crisis that hit the country. Inflation is a situation where there is an increase in general prices which continuesover the  long term. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of the money supply, interrst rate, deposit interest rate and exchange rate (Rp/USD) of the inflation in 2006 – 2011.6 The result of this study suges that the suppy of money have no significant positive effect on inflation. SBI rate have positive and significant effect on inflation. Deposit have rate and no significant negative effect on inflation. Exchange Rate have no significant negative effect on inflation.</p><p>Keywords : Money Supply, Interest Rates, Deposit Interest Rates, Exchange Rate    (IDR /USD), Multiple  Linear Regression, Inflation</p>

scholarly journals Assessing Volatilities of Monetary Policy and their Effects on the Islamic and Conventional Stock Markets in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-172
Author(s):  
M Shabri Abd Majid
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Monetary Shocks ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Us

The main objective of this study is to empirically assess the volatilities of the monetary policy instruments and their effects on the Indonesian Islamic and conventional stock market. The changes in exchange rate, interest rates, and money supply and their effects on the stock markets are investigated using the using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity frameworks. As a big-open economy, the capital market of Indonesia is vulnerable to the global monetary shocks changes, thus the US federal funds rate is also incorporated into the GARCH model. The study documented that, with the exception of the US interest rate, the volatilities of all monetary policy variables of interest rate, exchange rate, and money supply were documented affecting the volatilities of both Islamic and conventional stock markets. These findings imply that the volatilities of Islamic and conventional stock markets have similar determinants, thus to stabilize the markets, the investigated monetary policy variables should be controlled for by the policy-makers. Any monetary policy design imposed by the policy-makers would have a similar effect on both conventional and Islamic stocks in Indonesia.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7352

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