scholarly journals Assessing Volatilities of Monetary Policy and their Effects on the Islamic and Conventional Stock Markets in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-172
Author(s):  
M Shabri Abd Majid
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Monetary Shocks ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Us

The main objective of this study is to empirically assess the volatilities of the monetary policy instruments and their effects on the Indonesian Islamic and conventional stock market. The changes in exchange rate, interest rates, and money supply and their effects on the stock markets are investigated using the using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity frameworks. As a big-open economy, the capital market of Indonesia is vulnerable to the global monetary shocks changes, thus the US federal funds rate is also incorporated into the GARCH model. The study documented that, with the exception of the US interest rate, the volatilities of all monetary policy variables of interest rate, exchange rate, and money supply were documented affecting the volatilities of both Islamic and conventional stock markets. These findings imply that the volatilities of Islamic and conventional stock markets have similar determinants, thus to stabilize the markets, the investigated monetary policy variables should be controlled for by the policy-makers. Any monetary policy design imposed by the policy-makers would have a similar effect on both conventional and Islamic stocks in Indonesia.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7352

scholarly journals Fluctuations in the Swiss Franc: What Has Changed Since the Euro's Introduction?

2002 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas M. Fischer
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Swiss Franc ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Shed Light

The monetary implications arising from EMU for Swiss monetary policy show up primarily in the exchange rate. As of yet, fluctuations in the Swiss franc against the euro have been surprisingly moderate. The Swiss franc has thus tracked the euro's decline against the US dollar without experiencing strong inflationary pressures and a convergence in the interest-rate differential: a paradoxical result for a small open economy. This paper examines critically whether the recent record reveals information about a change in SNB monetary policy. It also attempts to shed light on the SNB's ability to implement an independent monetary policy with the new landscape defined by EMU. Four hypotheses of euro tracking are considered.

scholarly journals The Effects of Monetary Policy on Agricultural Output in Eswatini

2019 ◽  
pp. 94-99
Author(s):  
Mary S. Mashinini ◽  
Sotja G. Dlamini ◽  
Daniel V. Dlamini
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Continuous Production ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Long Run

The agricultural sector in Eswatini is viewed as an engine to foster economic growth, reduce poverty and eradicate inequality. The purpose of the study was to investigate the effects of monetary policy on the agriculture Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Eswatini using annual data for the period starting from 1980 to 2016. Using the Vector Error Correction model (VEC), the empirical results indicated that in the long run, agriculture GDP, exchange rate, interest rate, inflation, broad money supply, and agriculture credit have a negative effect on agriculture GDP in Eswatini. In the short run the study indicated that the variation in agriculture GDP is largely significant caused by the lagged agricultural GDP, interest rate, exchange rate as well as inflation. Money supply and agriculture credit contribute 0.46% and 0.55%, respectively to the variation in agricultural GDP. The study recommends that programs aimed at availing affordable credit to farmers should be prioritized to cushion the agriculture sector against adverse monetary policy shocks in the short to medium term, specifically interest rates, to ensure continuous production.

The response of macroeconomic aggregates to monetary policy shocks in Pakistan

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 314-330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Rashid ◽  
Zainab Jehan
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Aggregates

Purpose – This paper aims to empirically examine how shocks to monetary policy measures (the short-term nominal interest rate and broad money supply) affect macroeconomic aggregates, namely, output growth of the economy, national price levels and the nominal exchange rate. Design/methodology/approach – Johansen’s (1995) cointegration technique and error correction models are used to explore the long-run relationship among variables. To investigate how macroeconomic aggregates respond to a one-standard deviation shock to the underlying monetary measures, the authors estimate impulse response functions based on error correction models. The study uses quarterly data covering the period 1980-2009. Findings – The results provide evidence that there is a long-run stable relationship between the authors' monetary measures and the underlying macroeconomic aggregates. They also find that the industrial production adjusts at a faster speed relative to commodity prices and the exchange rate over the examined period. Further, they show that the short-term interest rate has relatively stronger effects on output as compared to broad money supply, whereas prices and exchange rates adjust more quickly to their long-run equilibrium when money supply is used as a measure of monetary policy. Finally, the authors find significant evidence of a price puzzle regardless of whether they consider a closed or an open economy case. However, an initial appreciation of exchange rate is observed in response to a one-standard deviation shock to money supply, indicating the overshooting hypothesis phenomenon. Practical implications – The findings of the analysis suggest that the interest rate-oriented monetary policy is more effective when the monetary authorities’ objective is to enhance the output growth of the economy. However, in case of inflation targeting, the broad money supply seems a more appropriate instrument. Our findings also suggest that the monetary policy has a significant role in stabilizing both real and nominal sectors of the economy. Originality/value – The main value of this paper is to examine the significance of monetary policy for a developing and relatively small open economy, namely, Pakistan. The authors use the error correction model, which improves the estimation by accounting for the long-run association. They also take into account the world oil prices by including the world commodity price index as a control variable in their empirical investigation. Finally, they utilize quarterly data rather than annual, and they cover a relatively recent sample period.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR, SUKU BUNGA SBI, NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP TINGKAT INFLASI

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 49
Author(s):  
Heru Perlambang
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Test Results ◽  
The Interest Rate

<p>Inflation is one of the effects of a prolonged economic crisis that hit the<br />country. Inflation is a situation where there are price rises sharply (Absolute)<br />which continues over a period of time. The purpose of this study analyzes the<br />monetary policy conducted by Bank Indonesia and its influence as the money<br />supply, interest rates and exchange rates SBI (IDR / USD) of the inflation rate.<br />The method used is multiple linear regression based on test results indicate<br />avariable effect on money supply, interest rate of SBI, and the exchange rate<br />(Rp / USD) in 2004 to 2009. By using eviews 4.0 software obtained from the<br />results of research following the money supply and exchange rate (Rp/USD)<br />had no significant effect on inflation while the interest rate (SBI) have a<br />significant effect on inflation.</p>

scholarly journals Monetary Conditions Index: A Composite Measure of Monetary Policy in Pakistan

2002 ◽  
Vol 41 (4II) ◽  
pp. 551-566 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Qayyum
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Rate Effects ◽  
The Interest Rate

Accurate measures of the size and direction of changes in monetary policy are very important. A number of variables/indicators have been used as a measure of the stance of monetary policy the world over. These include growth rates of monetary aggregates and credit aggregates, short-term interest rate as used by Sims (1992), index of minutes of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as suggested by Friedman and Schwartz (1963) and reintroduced by Romer and Romer (1989), monetary policy index constructed by employing Vector Autoregression (VAR) estimation technique with prior information from Central Bank such as Bernanke and Blinder (1992) and Bernanke and Mihov (1998), and Monetary Conditions Index (MCI)—which is the focus of this paper—constructed by and used by Bank of Canada [Freedman (1995)], taking into consideration the interest rate and exchange rate channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism in a small open economy. In case of open economy it is assumed that the monetary policy affects the economy and the prime objective of monetary policy, rate of inflation, through two important transmission mechanisms. These transmission channels are; interest rate channel and exchange rate channel. The working of the first channel is that the interest rate influences the level of expenditures, investment and subsequently domestic demand. The change in official interest rate effects the market rates of interest both short term as well as long term interest rates. This change in market rates of interest is transmitted to the bank lending rates and saving rates. The change in saving rate effects the spending behaviour of individuals (consumption) whereas the change in bank lending rate effects the investment behaviour of firms (investment). The change in aggregate consumption and investment has direct link to the gross domestic product (GDP).

The Role of Different Channels in Transmitting Monetary Policy into Output and Price in Vietnam

2015 ◽  
pp. 20-40
Author(s):  
Vinh Nguyen Thi Thuy
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

The paper investigates the mechanism of monetary transmission in Vietnam through different channels - namely the interest rate channel, the exchange rate channel, the asset channel and the credit channel for the period January 1995 - October 2009. This study applies VAR analysis to evaluate the monetary transmission mechanisms to output and price level. To compare the relative importance of different channels for transmitting monetary policy, the paper estimates the impulse response functions and variance decompositions of variables. The empirical results show that the changes in money supply have a significant impact on output rather than price in the short run. The impacts of money supply on price and output are stronger through the exchange rate and credit channels, but however, are weaker through the interest rate channel. The impacts of monetary policy on output and inflation may be erroneous through the equity price channel because of the lack of an established and well-functioning stock market.

scholarly journals Komparasi Jalur Moneter untuk Stabilitas Harga Dalam Kerangka Inflation Targeting Framework (Studi kasus pada interest rate, exchange rate dan credit channel)

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 181
Author(s):  
Setyo Tri Wahyudi ◽  
Rinny Apriliany Zakaria ◽  
Nurul Badriyah
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Credit Channel ◽  
The Right

The monetary policy transmission mechanism has many ways in influencing inflation. This method became known as the monetary path. The use of appropriate channels in monetary policy will affect whether or not the objectives of the monetary policy are achieved. This study aims to determine which monetary path is appropriate for Indonesia, which is a developing country with an open economic system. The data used are secondary data taken from Bank Indonesia for the period 2005 to 2016. The research variables include inflation, BI-rate, credit interest rates (SBB), gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rate, bank reserve (BBR), and the amount of credit extended. This study focuses on the path of interest rates, exchange rates and bank credit using the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results of this study indicate that the right monetary path for Indonesia is the credit channel. This is because the value of the Error Correction Term (ECT) coefficient on the ECM model shows that the coefficient of the credit channel is smaller than the interest rate and exchange rate channel, which means that the imbalance that occurs can be resolved more quickly with the credit channel.

Further Mexico rate hikes likely in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Wage Increases

Subject Monetary policy moves. Significance The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) increased its target interest rate by 25 basis points, to 7.25%, on December 14, responding to a similar move by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) the previous day. The hike was the first to be taken under new Governor Alejandro Diaz de Leon and pushes the rate to its highest level since March 2009. Impacts Tighter monetary policy will weigh on growth in 2018 and may hit the PRI’s electoral prospects. More expensive credit will hit consumption moderately, as interest rates remain relatively low by historical standards. The possibility of wage increases edging up will feed inflationary expectations.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Inflasi dan Suku Bunga dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah serta Jumlah Uang Beredar terhadap Return Saham

FORUM EKONOMI ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 148
Author(s):  
La Rahmad Hidayat ◽  
Djoko Setyadi ◽  
Musdalifah Azis
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Significant Variable ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Relationship Of

This research is to examine the effect of inflation, interest rate, exchange rate and money supply on stock returns LQ 45 listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The object of this research is the return - shares out of the category LQ 45 years of research by 2010-2015. Its Sampling using purposive sampling and get the 24 stocks that meet the criteria of 45 stocks LQ 45 as a sample. Thus, the number of samples studied was 144 shares for 6 years. The method used is multiple linear regression analyzes that examine whether or not a significant variable - the independent variable on the dependent variable. Based on the results known that R indicates that there is an ideal relationship of Inflation, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Money Supply toward to Return shares in LQ 45. R square indicates that the variable inflation rates, interest rates, the value of exchange rate and the money supply can explain the variable return shares at LQ 45 index. Based on F test indicates the same that the variable inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate and money supply have a significant influence on shares returns in LQ 45 listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange. The results of T test showed that the rate of inflation significant and negative effect on shares returns and interest rates positive and significant effect on shares returns while exchange Rate and the money supply no significant effect on shares returns in LQ 45 Listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange.Keywords: stock return, Inflation, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, Money Supply.

scholarly journals PERANAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER DALAM MENJAGA STABILITAS PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA SEBAGAI RESPON TERHADAP FLUKTUASI PEREKONOMIAN DUNIA

2007 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-177
Author(s):  
M. Maulana Al Arif ◽  
Achmad Tohari
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The World ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes the impact of the inflation and the world interest rate on the Indonesian economy and the effectiveness of the Indonesian central bank policy to adopt the domestic macroeconomic fluctuation.Assuming Indonesia as a small-open economy, the Stuctural Vector Autoregressive Model is utilized on the monthly data during the periode of 1999: 1 – 2004: 12 covering the main domestic macroeconomic indicator (output, price, money supply, interest rate and the exchange rate) and the world oil price and world interest rate as the disturbance source.The analysis provides 2 main results, first, the international variables do have impacts on the domestic variables fluctuation, implying the fragility of the domestic economy due to the external shock, second, the monetary policy is effective on supporting the economic growth and stabilizing the price level. However, the Bank Indonesia policy to stabilize the international shock via the exchange rate channel, contributes to a higher impact of the international shock on domestic interest rate.Keywords: monetary policy, business cycle, SVARJEL Classification: E52, E32, C32, F41

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