scholarly journals Methane and the Paris Agreement temperature goals

2021 ◽  
Vol 380 (2215) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle Cain ◽  
Stuart Jenkins ◽  
Myles R. Allen ◽  
John Lynch ◽  
David J. Frame ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Emission Rates ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Policies And Measures ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions

Meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goal necessitates limiting methane (CH 4 )-induced warming, in addition to achieving net-zero or (net-negative) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. In our model, for the median 1.5°C scenario between 2020 and 2050, CH 4 mitigation lowers temperatures by 0.1°C; CO 2 increases it by 0.2°C. CO 2 emissions continue increasing global mean temperature until net-zero emissions are reached, with potential for lowering temperatures with net-negative emissions. By contrast, reducing CH 4 emissions starts to reverse CH 4 -induced warming within a few decades. These differences are hidden when framing climate mitigation using annual ‘CO 2 -equivalent’ emissions, including targets based on aggregated annual emission rates. We show how the different warming responses to CO 2 and CH 4 emissions can be accurately aggregated to estimate warming by using ‘warming-equivalent emissions', which provide a transparent and convenient method to inform policies and measures for mitigation, or demonstrate progress towards a temperature goal. The method presented (GWP*) uses well-established climate science concepts to relate GWP100 to temperature, as a simple proxy for a climate model. The use of warming-equivalent emissions for nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies would enhance the transparency of stocktakes of progress towards a long-term temperature goal, compared to the use of standard equivalence methods. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)’.

scholarly journals Tapping the potential of NDCs and LT-LEDS to address fossil fuel production

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalie Jones ◽  
Miquel Muñoz Cabré ◽  
Georgia Piggot ◽  
Michael Lazarus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Window Of Opportunity ◽  
Fuel Production ◽  
Fuel Supply ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
First Time

The need for a managed transition away from fossil fuel production raises the question of whether and how countries are addressing this need in their national communications to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). A previous 2019 analysis of the first round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and long-term, low-emissions development strategies (LT-LEDS) found that few countries discussed how they would address fossil fuel production as part of their climate mitigation activities. Here, we examine new and updated NDCs and LT-LEDS, finding a growing number of NDCs and LT-LEDS that address fossil fuel production as part of mitigation. For the first time, several countries incorporate policies and/ or pathways for a managed decline of fossil fuel production. In contrast, many others foresee continued or expanded fossil fuel production, with no mention of efforts to prepare for a transition. Opportunities remain for countries to make better use of NDCs and LT-LEDS to align fossil fuel production with the Paris Agreement, including by more comprehensively reflecting on the equity implications of their plans, as well as addressing how countries plan to diversify their economies, ensure a just transition for workers, and cooperate internationally on a managed wind-down of fossil fuel supply. As COP26 approaches, this window of opportunity is still open, but it is rapidly closing.

scholarly journals The relationship between net GHG emissions and radiative forcing with an application to Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom M. L. Wigley
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Zero Point ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Test Case ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Global Warming Potentials ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract This paper provides an assessment of Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement on climate; the main goal of which is to provide guidance on how “to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2”. Paraphrasing, Article 4.1 says that, to achieve this end, we should decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions so that net anthropogenic GHG emissions fall to zero in the second half of this century. To aggregate net GHG emissions, 100-year Global Warming Potentials (GWP-100) are commonly used to convert non-CO2 emissions to equivalent CO2 emissions. As a test case using methane, temperature projections using GWP-100 scaling are shown to be seriously in error. This throws doubt on the use of GWP-100 scaling to estimate net GHG emissions. An alternative method to determine the net-zero point for GHG emissions based on radiative forcing is derived. This shows that the net-zero point needs to be reached as early as 2036, much sooner than in the Article 4.1 window. Other scientific flaws in Article 4.1 that further undermine its purpose to guide efforts to achieve the Article 2 temperature targets are discussed.

Towards high-quality net-zero targets

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joeri Rogelj ◽  
Andy Reisinger ◽  
Annette Cowie ◽  
Oliver Geden
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
Special Report ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Goal

<p>With the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 the world has decided that warming should be kept well below 2°C while pursuing a limit of 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. The Paris Agreement also sets a net emissions reduction goal: in the second half of the century, the balance of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals should become net zero. Since 2018, in response to the publication of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, a flurry of net zero target announcements has ensued. Many countries, cities, regions, companies, or other organisations have come forward with targets to reach net zero, or become carbon or climate neutral. These labels describe a wide variety of targets, and rarely detailed. Lack of transparency renders it impossible to understand their ultimate contribution towards the global goal. Here we present a set of key criteria that high-quality net zero targets should address. These nine criteria cover emissions, removals, timing, fairness and a long-term vision. Unless net zero targets provide clarity on these nine criteria, we may not know until it is too late whether the collective promise of net zero targets is adequate to meet the global goal of the Paris Agreement.</p>

scholarly journals Institutional “Paris Agreement Compatible” Mitigation Scenarios Evaluated Against the Paris Agreement 1.5°C Goal

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Brecha ◽  
Gaurav Ganti ◽  
Robin Lamboll ◽  
Zebedee Nicholls ◽  
Willion Hare ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Private Companies ◽  
International Agencies ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Short And Long Term

Abstract Since its adoption in 2015, governments, international agencies and private entities have increasingly recognized the implications of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C long-term temperature goal (LTTG) for greenhouse gas emissions reduction planning in both the near- and long-term. Governments have submitted or are preparing updates of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and are encouraged to submit long term low greenhouse gas development plans (Article 4 of the Agreement1), aimed at aligning short- and long-term strategies. The foundations on which country targets are based are guided, directly or indirectly, by a variety of sources of information judged to be authoritative, including scientific research institutes2, international agencies, or private companies. Importantly, such authoritative sources also affect planning and decision making by investors3 who aim to anticipate climate policies, and their decisions in turn can drive or hold back setting ambitious emissions-reduction targets.

scholarly journals Agriculture's Contribution to Climate Change and Role in Mitigation Is Distinct From Predominantly Fossil CO2-Emitting Sectors

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Lynch ◽  
Michelle Cain ◽  
David Frame ◽  
Raymond Pierrehumbert
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Emission Rates ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Roles And Responsibilities ◽  
Agricultural Emissions ◽  
Stock Pollutant ◽  
Global Temperature Change

Agriculture is a significant contributor to anthropogenic global warming, and reducing agricultural emissions—largely methane and nitrous oxide—could play a significant role in climate change mitigation. However, there are important differences between carbon dioxide (CO2), which is a stock pollutant, and methane (CH4), which is predominantly a flow pollutant. These dynamics mean that conventional reporting of aggregated CO2-equivalent emission rates is highly ambiguous and does not straightforwardly reflect historical or anticipated contributions to global temperature change. As a result, the roles and responsibilities of different sectors emitting different gases are similarly obscured by the common means of communicating emission reduction scenarios using CO2-equivalence. We argue for a shift in how we report agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and think about their mitigation to better reflect the distinct roles of different greenhouse gases. Policy-makers, stakeholders, and society at large should also be reminded that the role of agriculture in climate mitigation is a much broader topic than climate science alone can inform, including considerations of economic and technical feasibility, preferences for food supply and land-use, and notions of fairness and justice. A more nuanced perspective on the impacts of different emissions could aid these conversations.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations

Elem Sci Anth ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan P. Boisier ◽  
Camila Alvarez-Garreton ◽  
Raúl R. Cordero ◽  
Alessandro Damiani ◽  
Laura Gallardo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Emission Rates ◽  
Southern Chile ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Drying Trend ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

The socio-ecological sensitivity to water deficits makes Chile highly vulnerable to global change. New evidence of a multi-decadal drying trend and the impacts of a persistent drought that since 2010 has affected several regions of the country, reinforce the need for clear diagnoses of the hydro-climate changes in Chile. Based on the analysis of long-term records (50+ years) of precipitation and streamflow, we confirm a tendency toward a dryer condition in central-southern Chile (30–48°S). We describe the geographical and seasonal character of this trend, as well as the associated large-scale circulation patterns. When a large ensemble of climate model simulations is contrasted to observations, anthropogenic forcing appears as the leading factor of precipitation change. In addition to a drying trend driven by greenhouse gas forcing in all seasons, our results indicate that the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion has played a major role in the summer rainfall decline. Although average model results agree well with the drying trend’s seasonal character, the observed change magnitude is two to three times larger than that simulated, indicating a potential underestimation of future projections for this region. Under present-day carbon emission rates, the drying pathway in Chile will likely prevail during the next decades, although the summer signal should weaken as a result of the gradual ozone layer recovery. The trends and scenarios shown here pose substantial stress on Chilean society and its institutions, and call for urgent action regarding adaptation measures.

Prospects for climate change in 2021

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Climate Policies ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Better Than

Significance US re-entry into the Paris Agreement will signal renewed climate engagement by Washington. Prospects for climate cooperation are better than they seemed a year ago, with net-zero targets being more widely adopted, alongside long-term ambition statements. Credibility will depend on substantial changes in near-term climate policies and the pursuit of ‘green recoveries’.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic aerosol drives uncertainty in future climate mitigation efforts

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
E. J. L. Larson ◽  
R. W. Portmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
Emission Rates ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Greenhouse Gasses ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Aerosol Emissions

Abstract The 2016 Paris agreement set a global mean surface temperature (GMST) goal of not more than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial. This is an ambitious goal that will require substantial decreases in emission rates of long-lived greenhouse gasses (GHG). This work provides a mathematical framework, based on current state of the art climate models, to calculate the GHG emissions consistent with prescribed GMST pathways that meet the Paris agreement goal. The unique capability of this framework, to start from a GMST timeseries and efficiently calculate the emissions required to meet that temperature pathway, makes it a powerful resource for policymakers. Our results indicate that aerosol emissions play a large role in determining the near-term allowable greenhouse gas emissions that will limit future warming to 2 °C, however in the long term, drastic GHG emissions reductions are required under any reasonable aerosol scenario. With large future aerosol emissions, similar to present day amounts, GHG emissions need to be reduced 8% by 2040 and 74% by 2100 to limit warming to 2 °C. Under a more likely low aerosol scenario, GHG emissions need to be reduced 36% and 80% by 2040 and 2100, respectively. The Paris agreement Intended Nationally Determined Contributions are insufficient to meet this goal.

NDC Invest: Supporting Transformational Climate Policy and Finance

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcela Jaramillo ◽  
Valentina Saavedra
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
Climate Targets ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
One Stop ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
The One ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2

The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that meeting the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting the global temperature rise from pre-industrial levels to between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius requires reaching net-zero emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) between 2050 and 2070, as well as deep reductions in the emissions of other greenhouse gases by around mid-century (GHGs) (IPCC, 2018). At the same time countries need to build resilience to face the changes that cannot be avoided. NDC Invest was created as the one-stop-shop of the IDB Group providing technical and financial support for countries in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) in their efforts to achieve the climate objectives under the Paris Agreement, seeking to transition to a net zero, resilient and sustainable development pathways that improve quality of life and prosperity in LAC. Through our research and experience supporting countries and piloting solutions we have developed a toolbox for support. This paper describes three NDC Invest products to support Governments to tackle challenges and scale up action towards a climate aligned and sustainable development path: i) the design of Long-Term Strategies (LTS) for net-zero emissions and resilience; ii) design of ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), aligned to LTS; and iii) design of investment plans and finance strategies. Our three products are not a fix recipe, but rather a toolbox to provide flexible and relevant solutions tailored to country needs and context, and different stages of design and implementation of their climate targets.

China’s Carbon Neutrality Policy: Objectives, Impacts and Paths

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (01) ◽  
pp. 5-18
Author(s):  
Liang DONG ◽  
Gaoyi MIAO ◽  
Weigang WEN
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Profound Impact ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Policies And Measures ◽  
Policy Objectives ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions

In order to realise the goal of the Paris Agreement, China has announced to enhance its nationally determined contributions (NDCs), demonstrating its determination to adopt more rigorous policies and measures to achieve a peak in carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. China’s pledge to carbon neutrality not only has a profound impact on its economic reforms, but also spurs the country to be more proactive in global climate governnance.

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