scholarly journals CO-INTEGRATION AND ERROR CORRECTION MODELING OF AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT: THE CASE OF CASSAVA IN ONDO STATE, NIGERIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 72-79
Author(s):  
Adeyose Emmanuel Akinbola
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Cassava Production ◽  
Ondo State ◽  
Error Correction Modeling ◽  
Adf Test

Cassava is an important food crop in Nigeria providing households food security and income. Cassava production has received government and stakeholders’ intervention dating back to the 1970s. Nevertheless, increased and sustainable production of the crop is under threat by exogenous factors of climate change and variability. This study investigates this concern by assessing the effects of climate change on cassava output in Ondo state, Nigerian using Co-integration and Error-Correction Modelling (ECM). Time series (1971-2010) data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Abuja, Nigerian Meteorological Agency Oshodi, Lagos. The results of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test revealed that all variables (cassava yield and climate variables; rainfall, temperature, and relative humidity) all have unit root problems (non-stationary) but become stationary after the first difference 1(1). The results confirmed a long-run equilibrium relationship between all identified variables as the absolute values of the variables are greater than their critical values at a 5% level of significance for both trace statistics and maximal-eigen values. The ECM result shows that rainfall exerts a positive effect, while temperature and relative humidity exert negative effects on cassava production. This indicates the sensitivity of cassava to climate change in the study area. Thus, increased and sustained production of cassava for household’s food security income would be attainable by designing programmes and policies geared toward reducing the effect of climate change. Keywords: Co-integration, Error-Correction Modeling, Cassava Output, Climate Variability, Nigeria.

scholarly journals Climate Change and Food Production in Nigeria: Implication for Food Security in Nigeria

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix O. Idumah ◽  
Chimezie Mangodo ◽  
Uyinmwen B. Ighodaro ◽  
Paul T. Owombo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Adf Test

<strong></strong><p>Food production in Nigeria is largely dependent on natural environmental resources like rainfall, temperature and relative humidity. This study examined the impact of some of these climatic variables on food production in Nigeria from 1975 to 2010. Secondary time series data obtained from FAOSTAT (Food and Agriculture Organization statistics) and Nigerian Meteorological Agency were used for the study. The data were analyzed using some econometric tools such as Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, Johansen Test and Vector Error Correction (VEC) Estimates. The ADF test reveals that relative humidity integrated at order zero level while rainfall and temperature and agricultural output were stationary after differencing at level 1 thus showing that the variables had relationship. The results of the Johansen co-integrated test revealed that there is one co-integrating equation at 5% showing a co-integrating relationship between agricultural output and the climatic variables. The Vector Error Correction Estimates indicated that rainfall was positively significant at 5% to food production on the short run indicating that vagaries in climate especially rainfall affected food production and output in Nigeria. It was recommended, therefore, that measure that could help to mitigate the adverse effects of inadequate rainfall e.g. irrigation, drought resistant crops varieties among others should be put in place by the government. Farmers should equally be sensitized and trained in the area of adaptation and mitigation of the effect of climate change as this will go a long way to ameliorate large scale failure in food production in the country.</p>

scholarly journals Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (9) ◽  
pp. eaau2406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miroslav Trnka ◽  
Song Feng ◽  
Mikhail A. Semenov ◽  
Jørgen E. Olesen ◽  
Kurt Christian Kersebaum ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathway ◽  
Occurrence Probability ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Change Mitigation

Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world’s entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near-simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas.

Climate change-food security nexus in Burkina Faso.

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (009) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid El-Bilali
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Food Availability ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Four Dimensions ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Change Mitigation

Abstract Climate change is expected to have far-reaching impacts on food security. Such impacts are likely to be higher in developing countries. This paper analyses the state of research on the nexus between climate change and food security in Burkina Faso. In particular, it sheds light on whether and how the scholarly literature addresses the impacts of climate change on the four dimensions of food security (i.e. food availability, food access, food utilisation and stability). It also explores the synergies and trade-offs between climate change mitigation/adaptation and food security. A search performed in April 2020 on the Web of Science yielded 243 records and 62 of them, which resulted eligible, were included in the systematic review. The literature shows that climate change will affect all the four dimensions of food security. However, most of the analysed literature addresses its effects on food availability. Indeed, it focuses on impacts on crop yields and climate suitability for crops (e.g. maize, millet, sorghum). Moreover, most of the impacts on the remaining food security dimensions stem from the negative effects on food production and supply (cf. food availability). The review also shows that, on the one hand, climate change mitigation can undermine food security and, on the other hand, agriculture intensification and some adaptation strategies, which aim to enhance food security, might increase emissions from agriculture. The dual climate change-food security relationship calls for integrated policies that address trade-offs and optimise co-benefits between 'climate action' and 'zero hunger' in Burkina Faso.

Effects of conservation agriculture on farmers' livelihoods in the face of climate change in Balaka district, Malawi.

2020 ◽  
pp. 44-58
Author(s):  
Josephine M. Zimba ◽  
Emma T. Liwenga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Conservation Agriculture ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Government

Abstract Conservation agriculture (CA) has been highly promoted due to its potential to ensure high crop yields even in the face of changes in climatic factors. However, the actual benefits associated with CA are not only focused on food security but are also site specific. This study sought to understand the benefits of CA in improving livelihoods in a changing climate in Hanjahanja and Sawali sections of Bazale Extension Planning Area in Balaka District. Specifically, it analysed CA's contribution to farmers' livelihoods and also the challenges and opportunities of CA in climate change adaptation. Data was collected through household surveys (n = 153), key informant interviews (n = 9), focus group discussions and field observations. The study found that due to CA adoption, the majority of the farmers in both Hanjahanja and Sawali sections had realized positive livelihood outcomes, mainly through improved food security and increased incomes. Despite the similarity, Hanjahanja farmers reported decrease in yields in seasons marred by floods. However, farmers faced several challenges due to CA adoption, which included high labour demands, rainfall variability and lack of inputs. Even so, improvement in soil moisture, soil erosion control, improved food security, presence of several institutions and enabling environment offered more opportunities of CA in adapting to climate change. CA, therefore, improves the livelihoods of the farmers except in times of floods. Hence, deliberate policies by the government to promote adoption of CA are required to take advantage of the benefits of CA. Research should also be done on how best to reduce the negative effects of CA on farmers' livelihoods.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on Sustainable Maize Production in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Review

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelvin Mulungu ◽  
John Ng'ombe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Maize Production ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Agricultural Potential ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Maize (Zea mays L.) is one of the commonly grown grain crops and remains a source of staple food and food security for most countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). But climate change threatens agricultural potential in SSA thereby risking food security especially that most maize production is rain-fed in these countries. Thus, numerous studies have examined impacts of climate change on maize production and productivity resulting in several adaption strategies being promoted to mitigate the negative effects of climate change. But to the best of our knowledge, there has not been any studies in literature that provide a review of impacts of climate change on maize production and productivity in SSA. This chapter therefore provides a review of empirical climate change impacts on maize production and its productivity in SSA. We chose SSA because most countries in SSA are underdeveloped and therefore more vulnerable to climate change effects. This is important because this review will provide an easier access of such results for both scholars and policy makers in search of empirical impacts of climate change on maizeproduction and productivity in SSA.

Averting robo-bees: why free-flying robotic bees are a bad idea

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 723-729
Author(s):  
Roslyn Gleadow ◽  
Jim Hanan ◽  
Alan Dorin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Computer Simulation ◽  
Food Security ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Plant Interactions ◽  
Plant Insect Interactions ◽  
Native Habitat ◽  
Insect Pollinators ◽  
Insect Interactions

Food security and the sustainability of native ecosystems depends on plant-insect interactions in countless ways. Recently reported rapid and immense declines in insect numbers due to climate change, the use of pesticides and herbicides, the introduction of agricultural monocultures, and the destruction of insect native habitat, are all potential contributors to this grave situation. Some researchers are working towards a future where natural insect pollinators might be replaced with free-flying robotic bees, an ecologically problematic proposal. We argue instead that creating environments that are friendly to bees and exploring the use of other species for pollination and bio-control, particularly in non-European countries, are more ecologically sound approaches. The computer simulation of insect-plant interactions is a far more measured application of technology that may assist in managing, or averting, ‘Insect Armageddon' from both practical and ethical viewpoints.

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