Frailty Approach to Age at First Birth in Uttar Pradesh-India

Author(s):  
Ajay Pandey ◽  
◽  
Dilip C Nath ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 54
Author(s):  
Ajay Pandey ◽  
Richa Sharma

Culturally, there is always pressure among newly-wed to conceive early and have births in India. Previous studies have documented relationship between age at first birth & fertility, besides the socio-demographic factors that influence age at first birth. The current study aims answering directions and quantum of such relationships using frailty models. The successive rounds of NFHS data (1, 2, 3 & 4) from Uttar Pradesh is used in the study. Fertility in India is characterized as too-early-too-fast. By age-30 majority women would have completed the childbearing. However, the data from NFHS-4 shows some striking changes in the initiation of child bearing in Uttar Pradesh breaking away from the stereotypes of too early too fast characterization. While 44.67 percent of the women aged 30-34 had experienced first birth by age 18 in the year 1992-93 (NFHS-1), the percentages declined during 2015-16 (NFHS-4) to 28.25%. However, by ages 26 majority of women (>95%) aged 30-34 have had experienced first birth. Births at younger age are also a reflection on enforcement of child-marriage restraint act & adherence to legal minimum age at marriage which is 18 for girls & 21 for boys. The data from NFHS-4 have some quality issues. Women aged as low as 5 have shown to have experienced first birth by that age. This may not be possible. The Kaplan Meier survival Graph provided the survival probabilities with respect of each predictor sub groups. The log rank test was used to test the equality of survivor function for each sub group of the predictor variable. The survivor function was significantly different among sub groups of the predictor variables except for the categories of ever use of contraception at NFHS1 and categories of religion across rounds of NFHS data. The Cox Proportional Hazards model was used to study the risk of first birth by socio demographic characteristics. The Frailty model capturing the unobserved heterogeneity in the event time was preferred over standard survival model. For the current study, gamma frailty with Weibull-hazard is used as it fits the data well. Age at marriage and women’s literacy significantly determines the Age at First Birth. The inverse relationship with regard to ever use of contraception needs further analysis. The model also predicts significant frailty with variance parameter (theta) greater than one across the NFHS datasets.


2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 881-893 ◽  
Author(s):  

Abstract STUDY QUESTION How has the timing of women’s reproductive events (including ages at menarche, first birth, and natural menopause, and the number of children) changed across birth years, racial/ethnic groups and educational levels? SUMMARY ANSWER Women who were born in recent generations (1970–84 vs before 1930) or those who with higher education levels had menarche a year earlier, experienced a higher prevalence of nulliparity and had their first child at a later age. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY The timing of key reproductive events, such as menarche and menopause, is not only indicative of current health status but is linked to the risk of adverse hormone-related health outcomes in later life. Variations of reproductive indices across different birth years, race/ethnicity and socioeconomic positions have not been described comprehensively. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION Individual-level data from 23 observational studies that contributed to the International Collaboration for a Life Course Approach to Reproductive Health and Chronic Disease Events (InterLACE) consortium were included. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS Altogether 505 147 women were included. Overall estimates for reproductive indices were obtained using a two-stage process: individual-level data from each study were analysed separately using generalised linear models. These estimates were then combined using random-effects meta-analyses. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE Mean ages were 12.9 years at menarche, 25.7 years at first birth, and 50.5 years at natural menopause, with significant between-study heterogeneity (I2 > 99%). A linear trend was observed across birth year for mean age at menarche, with women born from 1970 to 1984 having menarche one year earlier (12.6 years) than women born before 1930 (13.5 years) (P for trend = 0.0014). The prevalence of nulliparity rose progressively from 14% of women born from 1940–49 to 22% of women born 1970–84 (P = 0.003); similarly, the mean age at first birth rose from 24.8 to 27.3 years (P = 0.0016). Women with higher education levels had fewer children, later first birth, and later menopause than women with lower education levels. After adjusting for birth year and education level, substantial variation was present for all reproductive events across racial/ethnic/regional groups (all P values < 0.005). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION Variations of study design, data collection methods, and sample selection across studies, as well as retrospectively reported age at menarche, age at first birth may cause some bias. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS This global consortium study found robust evidence on variations in reproductive indices for women born in the 20th century that appear to have both biological and social origins. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) InterLACE project is funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council project grant (APP1027196). GDM is supported by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Principal Research Fellowship (APP1121844).


1980 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 331-350 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard H. Steckel

This paper investigates the decline and regional differential in antebellum southern white fertility using published census materials and the 1860 population schedules. Demographic analysis is conducted with a synthetic total fertility rate that has four components: age at first birth, age at last surviving birth, surviving-child spacing, and the proportion of women who eventually have surviving children. The socioeconomic analysis employs regressions and focuses on causes of the underlying changes in the components. Family limitation appears to have been unimportant in this population. The distribution of wealth was.probably an important factor shaping the time trend and regional differential in fertility.


2012 ◽  
Vol 39 (12) ◽  
pp. 2253-2260 ◽  
Author(s):  
CHRISTINE A. PESCHKEN ◽  
DAVID B. ROBINSON ◽  
CAROL A. HITCHON ◽  
IRENE SMOLIK ◽  
DONNA HART ◽  
...  

Objective.To examine reproductive history and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) risk in a highly predisposed population of North American Natives (NAN) with unique fertility characteristics.Methods.The effect of pregnancy on the risk of RA was examined by comparing women enrolled in 2 studies: a study of RA in NAN patients and their unaffected relatives; and NAN patients with RA and unrelated healthy NAN controls enrolled in a study of autoimmunity. All participants completed questionnaires detailing their reproductive history.Results.Patients with RA (n = 168) and controls (n = 400) were similar overall in age, education, shared epitope frequency, number of pregnancies, age at first pregnancy, smoking, and breastfeeding history. In multivariate analysis, for women who had ≥ 6 births the OR for developing RA was 0.43 (95% CI 0.21–0.87) compared with women who had 1–2 births (p = 0.046); for women who gave birth for the first time after age 20 the OR for developing RA was 0.33 (95% CI 0.16–0.66) compared with women whose first birth occurred at age ≤ 17 (p = 0.001). The highest risk of developing RA was in the first postpartum year (OR 3.8; 95% CI 1.45–9.93) compared with subsequent years (p = 0.004).Conclusion.In this unique population, greater parity significantly reduced the odds of RA; an early age at first birth increased the odds, and the postpartum period was confirmed as high risk for RA onset. The protective effect of repeated exposure to the ameliorating hormonal and immunological changes of pregnancy may counterbalance the effect of early exposure to the postpartum reversal of these changes.


2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles H Mullin

AbstractEmpirical researchers commonly invoke instrumental variable (IV) assumptions to identify treatment effects. This paper considers what can be learned under two specific violations of those assumptions: contaminated and corrupted data. Either of these violations prevents point identification, but sharp bounds of the treatment effect remain feasible. In an applied example, random miscarriages are an IV for women’s age at first birth. However, the inability to separate random miscarriages from behaviorally induced miscarriages (those caused by smoking and drinking) results in a contaminated sample. Furthermore, censored child outcomes produce a corrupted sample. Despite these limitations, the bounds demonstrate that delaying the age at first birth for the current population of non-black teenage mothers reduces their first-born child’s well-being.


Radiology ◽  
1981 ◽  
Vol 138 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
I Andersson ◽  
L Janzon ◽  
H Pettersson

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 144
Author(s):  
Santi Wulan Purnami ◽  
Fitria Nur Aida ◽  
Sutikno Sutikno ◽  
Diyah Herowati ◽  
Achmad Sjafii ◽  
...  

The age of a woman when giving birth to her first child needs to be a concern because it is related to the safety of the mother and baby. A woman being too young or too old increases the risk of death for both the mother and baby. Every woman giving birth for the first time is likely to experience psychological disorders such as anxiety and excessive fear during labor, and even postpartum depression. Given the importance and possible extent of the consequences of women giving birth for the first time, this study intended to assess the factors that influence the age at first birth, especially amongst women of childbearing age in East Java. These factors include the age at first marriage, education, and region. The method used was the extended Cox regression model. The analysis shows that the age at first marriage and education are factors that significantly influence the age at first birth. The more mature the age at first marriage, the more mature the age at first birth. Likewise, the higher the educational status, the higher the potential for giving birth to a first child over the age of 23, especially amongst women who graduated high school and university.


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