scholarly journals Quantifying pollution inflow and outflow over East Asia in spring with regional and global models

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 4221-4239 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Lin ◽  
T. Holloway ◽  
G. R. Carmichael ◽  
A. M. Fiore
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Global Model ◽  
Global Models ◽  
High Resolution Models

Abstract. Understanding the exchange processes between the atmospheric boundary layer and the free troposphere is crucial for estimating hemispheric transport of air pollution. Most studies of hemispheric air pollution transport have taken a large-scale perspective using global chemical transport models with fairly coarse spatial and temporal resolutions. In support of United Nations Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP; www.htap.org), this study employs two high-resolution atmospheric chemistry models (WRF-Chem and CMAQ; 36×36 km) driven with chemical boundary conditions from a global model (MOZART; 1.9×1.9°) to examine the role of fine-scale transport and chemistry processes in controlling pollution export and import over the Asian continent in spring (March 2001). Our analysis indicates the importance of rapid venting through deep convection that develops along the leading edge of frontal system convergence bands, which are not adequately resolved in either of two global models compared with TRACE-P aircraft observations during a frontal event. Both regional model simulations and observations show that frontal outflows of CO, O3 and PAN can extend to the upper troposphere (6–9 km). Pollution plumes in the global MOZART model are typically diluted and insufficiently lofted to higher altitudes where they can undergo more efficient transport in stronger winds. We use sensitivity simulations that perturb chemical boundary conditions in the CMAQ regional model to estimate that the O3 production over East Asia (EA) driven by PAN decomposition contributes 20% of the spatial averaged total O3 response to European (EU) emission perturbations in March, and occasionally contributes approximately 50% of the total O3 response in subsiding plumes at mountain observatories (at approximately 2 km altitude). The response to decomposing PAN of EU origin is strongly affected by the O3 formation chemical regimes, which vary with the model chemical mechanism and NOx/VOC emissions. Our high-resolution models demonstrate a large spatial variability (by up to a factor of 6) in the response of local O3 to 20% reductions in EU anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions. The response in the highly populated Asian megacities is 40–50% lower in our high-resolution models than the global model, suggesting that the source-receptor relationships inferred from the global coarse-resolution models likely overestimate health impacts associated with intercontinental O3 transport. Our results highlight the important roles of rapid convective transport, orographic forcing, urban photochemistry and heterogeneous boundary layer processes in controlling intercontinental transport; these processes may not be well resolved in the large-scale models.

scholarly journals Quantifying pollution inflow and outflow over East Asia through coupling regional and global models

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Lin ◽  
T. Holloway ◽  
G. R. Carmichael ◽  
A. M. Fiore
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Global Model ◽  
Free Troposphere ◽  
Regional Models ◽  
Global Models ◽  
Limited Ability ◽  
Surface O3

Abstract. Understanding the exchange processes between the atmospheric boundary layer and the free troposphere is crucial for estimating hemispheric transport of air pollution. Most studies of hemispheric air pollution transport have taken a large-scale perspective: using global chemical transport models and focusing on synoptic-scale export events. These global models have fairly coarse spatial and temporal resolutions, and thus have a limited ability to represent boundary layer processes and urban photochemistry. In support of United Nations Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP; http://www.htap.org), this study employs two high-resolution atmospheric chemistry models (WRF-Chem and CMAQ; 36×36 km) coupled with a global model (MOZART; 1.9×1.9°) to examine the importance of fine-scale transport and chemistry processes in controlling pollution export and import over the Asian continent. We find that the vertical lifting and outflow of Asian pollution is enhanced in the regional models throughout the study period (March 2001) as contrast to the global model. Episodic outflow of CO, PAN, and O3 to the upper troposphere during cold frontal passages is twice as great in the WRF-Chem model as compared with the MOZART model. The TRACE-P aircraft measurements indicate that the pollution plumes in MOZART are too weak and too low in the altitude, which we attribute to the global model's inability to capture rapid deep convection that develops along the leading edge of the convergence band during frontal events. In contrast to pollution export from Asia, we find little difference in the regional vs. global model transport of European (EU) pollution into surface air over East Asia (EA). Instead, the local surface characteristics – sensitivity – strongly influence surface O3 responses. For instance, the O3 response to 20% decreases in EU emissions imported into our regional model domain is strongest (0.4–0.6 ppbv) over mountainous regions and weakest (0.1–0.3 ppbv) in megacities. The spatial averaged O3 response over EA estimated by our regional models is ~0.1 ppbv lower than global model estimates. Our results suggest that global models tend to underestimate the total budget of Asian pollutants exported to the free troposphere given their limited ability to properly capture vertical convection and lifting. Due to the compensating effects on surface O3 responses over downwind continents, future high-resolution hemispheric model analysis should provide additional insights into how the export and import processes interact, and will help to narrow the uncertainty of intercontinental source-receptor relationships.

Neighborhood-Based Contingency Tables Including Errors Compensation

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (1) ◽  
pp. 329-344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joël Stein ◽  
Fabien Stoop
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Contingency Tables ◽  
Global Model ◽  
New Method ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Scale Models ◽  
Resolution Model ◽  
High Resolution Model ◽  
High Resolution Models

Some specific scores use a neighborhood strategy in order to reduce double penalty effects, which penalize high-resolution models, compared to large-scale models. Contingency tables based on this strategy have already been proposed, but can sometimes display undesirable behavior. A new method of populating contingency tables is proposed: pairs of missed events and false alarms located in the same local neighborhood compensate in order to give pairs of hits and correct rejections. Local tables are summed up so as to provide the final table for the whole verification domain. It keeps track of the bias of the forecast when neighborhoods are taken into account. Moreover, the scores computed from this table depend on the distance between forecast and observed patterns. This method is applied to binary and multicategorical events in a simplified framework so as to present the method and to compare the new tables with previous neighborhood-based contingency tables. The new tables are then used for the verification of two models operational at Météo-France: AROME, a high-resolution model, and ARPEGE, a large-scale global model. The comparison of several contingency scores shows that the importance of the double penalty decreases more for AROME than for ARPEGE when the neighboring size increases. Scores designed for rare events are also applied to these neighborhood-based contingency tables.

scholarly journals A Scale-Selective Data Assimilation Approach to Improving Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasts in a Limited-Area Model: A Case Study of Hurricane Felix (2007)

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 124-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Liu ◽  
Lian Xie
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Global Models

Abstract Accurately forecasting a tropical cyclone’s (TC) track and intensity remains one of the top priorities in weather forecasting. A dynamical downscaling approach based on the scale-selective data assimilation (SSDA) method is applied to demonstrate its effectiveness in TC track and intensity forecasting. The SSDA approach retains the merits of global models in representing large-scale environmental flows and regional models in describing small-scale characteristics. The regional model is driven from the model domain interior by assimilating large-scale flows from global models, as well as from the model lateral boundaries by the conventional sponge zone relaxation. By using Hurricane Felix (2007) as a demonstration case, it is shown that, by assimilating large-scale flows from the Global Forecast System (GFS) forecasts into the regional model, the SSDA experiments perform better than both the original GFS forecasts and the control experiments, in which the regional model is only driven by lateral boundary conditions. The overall mean track forecast error for the SSDA experiments is reduced by over 40% relative to the control experiments, and by about 30% relative to the GFS forecasts, respectively. In terms of TC intensity, benefiting from higher grid resolution that better represents regional and small-scale processes, both the control and SSDA runs outperform the GFS forecasts. The SSDA runs show approximately 14% less overall mean intensity forecast error than do the control runs. It should be noted that, for the Felix case, the advantage of SSDA becomes more evident for forecasts with a lead time longer than 48 h.

scholarly journals Characterizing summertime chemical boundary conditions for airmasses entering the US West Coast

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1769-1790 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. G. Pfister ◽  
D. D. Parrish ◽  
H. Worden ◽  
L. K. Emmons ◽  
D. P. Edwards ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Global Model ◽  
Large Contribution ◽  
Aircraft Measurements ◽  
Pollution Transport ◽  
Regional Models ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Local Pollution

Abstract. The objective of this study is to analyze the pollution inflow into California during summertime and how it impacts surface air quality through combined analysis of a suite of observations and global and regional models. The focus is on the transpacific pollution transport investigated by the NASA Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) mission in June 2008. Additional observations include satellite retrievals of carbon monoxide and ozone by the EOS Aura Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES), aircraft measurements from the MOZAIC program and ozonesondes. We compare chemical boundary conditions (BC) from the MOZART-4 global model, which are commonly used in regional simulations, with measured concentrations to quantify both the accuracy of the model results and the variability in pollution inflow. Both observations and model reflect a large variability in pollution inflow on temporal and spatial scales, but the global model captures only about half of the observed free tropospheric variability. Model tracer contributions show a large contribution from Asian emissions in the inflow. Recirculation of local US pollution can impact chemical BC, emphasizing the importance of consistency between the global model simulations used for BC and the regional model in terms of emissions, chemistry and transport. Aircraft measurements in the free troposphere over California show similar concentration ranges, variability and source contributions as free tropospheric air masses over ocean, but caution has to be taken that local pollution aloft is not misinterpreted as inflow. A flight route specifically designed to sample boundary conditions during ARCTAS-CARB showed a prevalence of plumes transported from Asia and thus may not be fully representative for average inflow conditions. Sensitivity simulations with a regional model with altered BCs show that the temporal variability in the pollution inflow does impact modeled surface concentrations in California. We suggest that time and space varying chemical boundary conditions from global models provide useful input to regional models, but likely still lead to an underestimate of peak surface concentrations and the variability associated with long-range pollution transport.

Sea-Breeze Convergence Zones from AVHRR over the Iberian Mediterranean Area and the Isle of Mallorca, Spain

2009 ◽  
Vol 48 (10) ◽  
pp. 2069-2085 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cesar Azorin-Molina ◽  
Bernadette H. Connell ◽  
Rafael Baena-Calatrava
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Leading Edge ◽  
Sea Breeze ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Detection Algorithm ◽  
Cloud Detection ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Convergence Zones

Abstract The aim of this study was to identify clear air boundaries and to obtain spatial distribution of convective areas associated with the sea breeze over the Iberian Mediterranean zone and the isle of Mallorca, both in Spain. Daytime Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) polar-orbiting satellites were collected for May–October 2004. A cloud detection algorithm was used to identify clouds to derive daytime sea-breeze cloud frequency composites over land. The high-resolution composites aided in identifying the location of five preferential sea-breeze convergence zones (SBCZ) in relation to the shape of coastline and orographic effects. Additionally, eight regimes were designated using mean boundary layer wind speed and direction to provide statistics about the effect of prevailing large-scale flows on sea-breeze convection over the five SBCZ. The offshore SW to W and the NW to N regimes were characterized by high cloud frequencies parallel to the coast. Small differences in mean cloud frequency values from morning to afternoon composites were detected with these regimes because sea-breeze fronts tended to form early and persist into the afternoon. Just the opposite occurred under the onshore NE to E and SE to S regimes. It was found that light to moderate (≤5.1 m s−1) winds aloft result in more clouds at the leading edge of sea breezes. In contrast, strong synoptic-scale (>5.1 m s−1) flows weaken boundary layer convergence. The results from this satellite meteorology study could have practical applications for many people including those that forecast the weather and those that use the forecast for making decisions related to energy use, fishing, recreation, or agriculture activities, as well as for estimating pollution or issuing warnings for heavy rain or flash flooding.

scholarly journals Large-Scale Atmospheric Forcing by Southeast Pacific Boundary Layer Clouds: A Regional Model Study*

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 934-951 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqing Wang ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
Haiming Xu
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Inversion Layer ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Cloud Layer ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Radiative Effect ◽  
Boundary Layer Clouds ◽  
Southeast Pacific ◽  
Stratocumulus Clouds

Abstract A regional model is used to study the radiative effect of boundary layer clouds over the southeast Pacific on large-scale atmosphere circulation during August–October 1999. With the standard settings, the model simulates reasonably well the large-scale circulation over the eastern Pacific, precipitation in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) north of the equator, and marine boundary layer stratocumulus clouds to the south. In a sensitivity experiment with the radiative effect of liquid clouds south of the equator over the eastern Pacific artificially removed, boundary layer clouds south of the equator almost disappear and precipitation in the ITCZ is reduced by 15%–20%, indicating that the stratocumulus clouds over the southeast Pacific have both local and cross-equatorial effects. Examination of the differences between the control and sensitivity experiments indicates that clouds exert a net diabatic cooling in the inversion layer. In response to this cloud-induced cooling, an in situ anomalous high pressure system develops in the boundary layer and an anomalous shallow meridional circulation develops in the lower troposphere over the equatorial eastern Pacific. At the lower branch of this shallow circulation, anomalous boundary layer southerlies blow from the boundary layer high toward the northern ITCZ where the air ascends. An anomalous returning flow (northerly) just above the cloud layer closes the shallow circulation. This low-level anomalous shallow circulation enhances the subsidence over the southeast Pacific above the cloud layer, helping to maintain boundary layer clouds and temperature inversion there. Meanwhile, the strengthened cross-equatorial flow near the surface enhances moisture convergence and convection in the ITCZ north of the equator. This in turn strengthens the local, deep Hadley circulation and hence the large-scale subsidence and boundary layer clouds over the southeast Pacific. This positive feedback therefore enhances the interhemispheric climate asymmetry over the tropical eastern Pacific.

scholarly journals Current challenges in modelling far-range air pollution induced by the 2014–2015 Bárðarbunga fissure eruption (Iceland)

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (17) ◽  
pp. 10831-10845 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Boichu ◽  
Isabelle Chiapello ◽  
Colette Brogniez ◽  
Jean-Christophe Péré ◽  
Francois Thieuleux ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Vertical Distribution ◽  
Planetary Boundary Layer ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Optical Absorption Spectroscopy ◽  
Sulfate Aerosols ◽  
Volcanic Cloud

Abstract. The 2014–2015 Holuhraun lava-flood eruption of Bárðarbunga volcano (Iceland) emitted prodigious amounts of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. This eruption caused a large-scale episode of air pollution throughout Western Europe in September 2014, the first event of this magnitude recorded in the modern era. We gathered chemistry-transport simulations and a wealth of complementary observations from satellite sensors (OMI, IASI), ground-based remote sensing (lidar, sunphotometry, differential optical absorption spectroscopy) and ground-level air quality monitoring networks to characterize both the spatial-temporal distributions of volcanic SO2 and sulfate aerosols as well as the dynamics of the planetary boundary layer. Time variations of dynamical and microphysical properties of sulfate aerosols in the aged low-tropospheric volcanic cloud, including loading, vertical distribution, size distribution and single scattering albedo, are provided. Retrospective chemistry-transport simulations at low horizontal resolution (25 km  ×  25 km) capture the correct temporal dynamics of this far-range air pollution event but fail to reproduce the correct magnitude of SO2 concentration at ground-level. Simulations at higher spatial resolution, relying on two nested domains with finest resolution of 7.3 km  ×  7.3 km, improve substantially the far-range vertical distribution of the volcanic cloud and subsequently the description of ground-level SO2 concentrations. However, remaining discrepancies between model and observations are shown to result from an inaccurate representation of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) dynamics. Comparison with lidar observations points out a systematic under-estimation of the PBL height by the model, whichever the PBL parameterization scheme. Such a shortcoming impedes the capture of the overlying Bárðarbunga cloud into the PBL at the right time and in sufficient quantities. This study therefore demonstrates the key role played by the PBL dynamics in accurately modelling large-scale volcanogenic air pollution.

A High-Resolution Climate Model for the U.S. Pacific Northwest: Mesoscale Feedbacks and Local Responses to Climate Change*

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (21) ◽  
pp. 5708-5726 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric P. Salathé ◽  
Richard Steed ◽  
Clifford F. Mass ◽  
Patrick H. Zahn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Global Model ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Abstract Simulations of future climate scenarios produced with a high-resolution climate model show markedly different trends in temperature and precipitation over the Pacific Northwest than in the global model in which it is nested, apparently because of mesoscale processes not being resolved at coarse resolution. Present-day (1990–99) and future (2020–29, 2045–54, and 2090–99) conditions are simulated at high resolution (15-km grid spacing) using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) system and forced by ECHAM5 global simulations. Simulations use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario, which assumes a rapid increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. The mesoscale simulations produce regional alterations in snow cover, cloudiness, and circulation patterns associated with interactions between the large-scale climate change and the regional topography and land–water contrasts. These changes substantially alter the temperature and precipitation trends over the region relative to the global model result or statistical downscaling. Warming is significantly amplified through snow–albedo feedback in regions where snow cover is lost. Increased onshore flow in the spring reduces the daytime warming along the coast. Precipitation increases in autumn are amplified over topography because of changes in the large-scale circulation and its interaction with the terrain. The robustness of the modeling results is established through comparisons with the observed and simulated seasonal variability and with statistical downscaling results.

scholarly journals Large Scale, High Resolution Models of Receptor Tyrosine Kinase Signaling Networks

2012 ◽  
Vol 102 (3) ◽  
pp. 513a-514a
Author(s):  
Edward C. Stites ◽  
Matthew S. Creamer ◽  
Meraj Aziz ◽  
William S. Hlavacek ◽  
Richard G. Posner
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Tyrosine Kinase ◽  
Receptor Tyrosine Kinase ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Signaling Networks ◽  
Kinase Signaling ◽  
Tyrosine Kinase Signaling ◽  
High Resolution Models
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