scholarly journals Regional emission metrics for short-lived climate forcers from multiple models

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. 7451-7468 ◽  
Author(s):  
Borgar Aamaas ◽  
Terje K. Berntsen ◽  
Jan S. Fuglestvedt ◽  
Keith P. Shine ◽  
Nicolas Bellouin
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Ozone Precursors ◽  
Direct Forcing ◽  
Rf Values ◽  
Global Temperature Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. For short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), the impact of emissions depends on where and when the emissions take place. Comprehensive new calculations of various emission metrics for SLCFs are presented based on radiative forcing (RF) values calculated in four different (chemical-transport or coupled chemistry–climate) models. We distinguish between emissions during summer (May–October) and winter (November–April) for emissions in Europe and East Asia, as well as from the global shipping sector and global emissions. The species included in this study are aerosols and aerosol precursors (BC, OC, SO2, NH3), as well as ozone precursors (NOx, CO, VOCs), which also influence aerosols to a lesser degree. Emission metrics for global climate responses of these emissions, as well as for CH4, have been calculated using global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature change potential (GTP), based on dedicated RF simulations by four global models. The emission metrics include indirect cloud effects of aerosols and the semi-direct forcing for BC. In addition to the standard emission metrics for pulse and sustained emissions, we have also calculated a new emission metric designed for an emission profile consisting of a ramping period of 15 years followed by sustained emissions, which is more appropriate for a gradual implementation of mitigation policies.For the aerosols, the emission metric values are larger in magnitude for emissions in Europe than East Asia and for summer than winter. A variation is also observed for the ozone precursors, with largest values for emissions in East Asia and winter for CO and in Europe and summer for VOCs. In general, the variations between the emission metrics derived from different models are larger than the variations between regions and seasons, but the regional and seasonal variations for the best estimate also hold for most of the models individually. Further, the estimated climate impact of an illustrative mitigation policy package is robust even when accounting for the fact that the magnitude of emission metrics for different species in a given model is correlated. For the ramping emission metrics, the values are generally larger than for pulse or sustained emissions, which holds for all SLCFs. For SLCFs mitigation policies, the dependency of metric values on the region and season of emission should be considered.

scholarly journals Multimodel emission metrics for regional emissions of short lived climate forcers

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (18) ◽  
pp. 26089-26130 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Aamaas ◽  
T. K. Berntsen ◽  
J. S. Fuglestvedt ◽  
K. P. Shine ◽  
N. Bellouin
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Mitigation Policy ◽  
Ozone Precursors ◽  
Rf Values ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. For short lived climate forcers (SLCFs), the impact of emissions depends on where and when the emissions take place. Comprehensive new calculations of various emission metrics for SLCFs are presented based on radiative forcing (RF) values calculated in four different (chemistry-transport or coupled-chemistry climate) models. We distinguish between emissions during summer (May–October) and winter season (November–April) for emissions from Europe, East Asia, as well as the global shipping sector. The species included in this study are aerosols and aerosols precursors (BC, OC, SO2, NH3), and ozone precursors (NOx, CO, VOC), which also influence aerosols, to a lesser degree. Emission metrics for global climate responses of these emissions, as well as for CH4, have been calculated relative to CO2, using Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), based on dedicated RF simulations by four global models. The emission metrics include indirect cloud effects of aerosols and the semi-direct forcing for BC. In addition to the standard emission metrics for pulse and sustained emissions, we have also calculated a new emission metric designed for an emission profile consisting of a ramp up period of 15 years followed by sustained emissions, which is more appropriate for a gradual implementation of mitigation policies. For the aerosols, the emission metric values are larger in magnitude for Europe than East Asia and for summer than winter. A variation is also observed for the ozone precursors, with largest values in East Asia and winter for CO and in Europe and summer for VOC. In general, the variations between the emission metrics derived from different models are larger than the variations between regions and seasons, but the regional and seasonal variations for the best estimate also hold for most of the models individually. Further, the estimated climate impact of a mitigation policy package is robust even when accounting for correlations. For the ramp up emission metrics, the values are generally larger than for pulse or sustained emissions, which holds for all SLCFs. For a potential SLCFs mitigation policy, the dependency of metric values on the region and season of emission should be considered.

scholarly journals Process-oriented analysis of aircraft soot-cirrus interactions constrains the climate impact of aviation

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernd Kärcher ◽  
Fabian Mahrt ◽  
Claudia Marcolli
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Soot Particles ◽  
Cloud Ice ◽  
The Impact

AbstractFully accounting for the climate impact of aviation requires a process-level understanding of the impact of aircraft soot particle emissions on the formation of ice clouds. Assessing this impact with the help of global climate models remains elusive and direct observations are lacking. Here we use a high-resolution cirrus column model to investigate how aircraft-emitted soot particles, released after ice crystals sublimate at the end of the lifetime of contrails and contrail cirrus, perturb the formation of cirrus. By allying cloud simulations with a measurement-based description of soot-induced ice formation, we find that only a small fraction (<1%) of the soot particles succeeds in forming cloud ice alongside homogeneous freezing of liquid aerosol droplets. Thus, soot-perturbed and homogeneously-formed cirrus fundamentally do not differ in optical depth. Our results imply that climate model estimates of global radiative forcing from interactions between aircraft soot and large-scale cirrus may be overestimates. The improved scientific understanding reported here provides a process-based underpinning for improved climate model parametrizations and targeted field observations.

scholarly journals The global impact of the transport sectors on atmospheric aerosol in 2030 – Part 1: Land transport and shipping

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (16) ◽  
pp. 22985-23025
Author(s):  
M. Righi ◽  
J. Hendricks ◽  
R. Sausen
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Aerosol ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Surface Level ◽  
Aerosol Module ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Using the EMAC global climate-chemistry model coupled to the aerosol module MADE, we simulate the impact of land transport and shipping emissions on global atmospheric aerosol and climate in 2030. Future emissions of short-lived gas and aerosol species follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) designed in support of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We compare the resulting 2030 land-transport- and shipping-induced aerosol concentrations to the ones obtained for the year 2000 in a previous study with the same model configuration. The simulations suggest that black carbon and aerosol nitrate are the most relevant pollutants from land transport in 2000 and 2030, but their impacts are characterized by very strong regional variations during this time period. Europe and North America experience a decrease in the land-transport-induced particle pollution, although in these regions this sector remains the dominant source of surface-level pollution in 2030 under all RCPs. In Southeast Asia, on the other hand, a significant increase is simulated, but in this region the surface-level pollution is still controlled by other sources than land transport. Shipping-induced air pollution is mostly due to aerosol sulfate and nitrate, which show opposite trends towards 2030. Sulfate is strongly reduced as a consequence of sulfur reduction policies in ship-fuels in force since 2010, while nitrate tends to increase due to the excess of ammonia following the reduction in ammonium-sulfate. The aerosol-induced climate impact of both sectors is dominated by aerosol-cloud effects and is projected to decrease between 2000 and 2030, nevertheless still contributing a significant radiative forcing to the Earth's radiation budget.

scholarly journals Modeling the global emission, transport and deposition of trace elements associated with mineral dust

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (19) ◽  
pp. 5771-5792 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Zhang ◽  
N. Mahowald ◽  
R. A. Scanza ◽  
E. Journet ◽  
K. Desboeufs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Mineral Dust ◽  
Chemical Elements ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Desert Dust ◽  
Mineral Data ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Trace element deposition from desert dust has important impacts on ocean primary productivity, the quantification of which could be useful in determining the magnitude and sign of the biogeochemical feedback on radiative forcing. However, the impact of elemental deposition to remote ocean regions is not well understood and is not currently included in global climate models. In this study, emission inventories for eight elements primarily of soil origin, Mg, P, Ca, Mn, Fe, K, Al, and Si are determined based on a global mineral data set and a soil data set. The resulting elemental fractions are used to drive the desert dust model in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in order to simulate the elemental concentrations of atmospheric dust. Spatial variability of mineral dust elemental fractions is evident on a global scale, particularly for Ca. Simulations of global variations in the Ca / Al ratio, which typically range from around 0.1 to 5.0 in soils, are consistent with observations, suggesting that this ratio is a good signature for dust source regions. The simulated variable fractions of chemical elements are sufficiently different; estimates of deposition should include elemental variations, especially for Ca, Al and Fe. The model results have been evaluated with observations of elemental aerosol concentrations from desert regions and dust events in non-dust regions, providing insights into uncertainties in the modeling approach. The ratios between modeled and observed elemental fractions range from 0.7 to 1.6, except for Mg and Mn (3.4 and 3.5, respectively). Using the soil database improves the correspondence of the spatial heterogeneity in the modeling of several elements (Ca, Al and Fe) compared to observations. Total and soluble dust element fluxes to different ocean basins and ice sheet regions have been estimated, based on the model results. The annual inputs of soluble Mg, P, Ca, Mn, Fe and K associated with dust using the mineral data set are 0.30 Tg, 16.89 Gg, 1.32 Tg, 22.84 Gg, 0.068 Tg, and 0.15 Tg to global oceans and ice sheets.

scholarly journals The global impact of the transport sectors on atmospheric aerosol in 2030 – Part 1: Land transport and shipping

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 633-651 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Righi ◽  
J. Hendricks ◽  
R. Sausen
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Atmospheric Aerosol ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Surface Level ◽  
Aerosol Dynamics ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Using the EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) global climate-chemistry model coupled to the aerosol module MADE (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications), we simulate the impact of land transport and shipping emissions on global atmospheric aerosol and climate in 2030. Future emissions of short-lived gas and aerosol species follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) designed in support of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We compare the resulting 2030 land-transport- and shipping-induced aerosol concentrations to the ones obtained for the year 2000 in a previous study with the same model configuration. The simulations suggest that black carbon and aerosol nitrate are the most relevant pollutants from land transport in 2000 and 2030 and their impacts are characterized by very strong regional variations during this time period. Europe and North America experience a decrease in the land-transport-induced particle pollution, although in these regions this sector remains a major source of surface-level pollution in 2030 under all RCPs. In Southeast Asia, however, a significant increase is simulated, but in this region the surface-level pollution is still controlled by other sources than land transport. Shipping-induced air pollution is mostly due to aerosol sulfate and nitrate, which show opposite trends towards 2030. Sulfate is strongly reduced as a consequence of sulfur reduction policies in ship fuels in force since 2010, while nitrate tends to increase due to the excess of ammonia following the reduction in ammonium sulfate. The aerosol-induced climate impact of both sectors is dominated by aerosol-cloud effects and is projected to decrease between 2000 and 2030, nevertheless still contributing a significant radiative forcing to Earth's radiation budget.

scholarly journals Global sensitivity of aviation NO<sub>x</sub> effects to the HNO<sub>3</sub>-forming channel of the HO<sub>2</sub> + NO reaction

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3003-3025 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Gottschaldt ◽  
C. Voigt ◽  
P. Jöckel ◽  
M. Righi ◽  
R. Deckert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Rate Coefficient ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Nox Emissions ◽  
Global Sensitivity ◽  
Cooling Effects ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of a recently proposed HNO3-forming channel of the HO2 + NO reaction on atmospheric ozone, methane and their precursors is assessed with the aim to investigate its effects on aviation NOx induced radiative forcing. The first part of the study addresses the differences in stratospheric and tropospheric HOx-NOx chemistry in general, by comparing a global climate simulation without the above reaction to two simulations with different rate coefficient parameterizations for HO2 + NO → HNO3. A possible enhancement of the reaction by humidity, as found by a laboratory study, particularly reduces the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere, increasing methane lifetime significantly. Since methane lifetime is an important parameter for determining global methane budgets, this might affect estimates of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. In the second part aviation NOx effects are isolated independently for each of the three above simulations. Warming and cooling effects of aircraft NOx emissions are both enhanced when considering the HNO3-forming channel, but the sum is shifted towards negative radiative forcing. Uncertainties associated with the inclusion of the HO2 + NO → HNO3 reaction and with its corresponding rate coefficient propagate a considerable additional uncertainty on estimates of the climate impact of aviation and on NOx-related mitigation strategies.

Revisiting the Krakatau 1883 Volcanic Aerosol Dispersal 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Castro ◽  
Tushar Mittal ◽  
Stephen Self
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Volcanic Plume ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Pinatubo Eruption ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;The 1883 Krakatau eruption is one of the most well-known historical volcanic eruptions due to its significant global climate impact as well as first recorded observations of various aerosol associated optical and physical phenomena. Although much work has been done on the former by comparison of global climate model predictions/ simulations with instrumental and proxy climate records, the latter has surprisingly not been studied in similar detail. In particular, there is a wealth of observations of vivid red sunsets, blue suns, and other similar features, that can be used to analyze the spatio-temporal dispersal of volcanic aerosols in summer to winter 1883. Thus, aerosol cloud dispersal after the Krakatau eruption can be estimated, bolstered by aerosol cloud behavior as monitored by satellite-based instrument observations after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. This is one of a handful of large historic eruptions where this analysis can be done (using non-climate proxy methods). In this study, we model particle trajectories of the Krakatau eruption cloud using the Hysplit trajectory model and compare our results with our compiled observational dataset (principally using Verbeek 1884, the Royal Society report, and Kiessling 1884).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In particular, we explore the effect of different atmospheric states - the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) which impacts zonal movement of the stratospheric volcanic plume - to estimate the phase of the QBO in 1883 required for a fast-moving westward cloud. Since this alone is unable to match the observed latitudinal spread of the aerosols, we then explore the impact of an&amp;#160; umbrella cloud (2000 km diameter) that almost certainly formed during such a large eruption. A large umbrella cloud, spreading over ~18 degrees within the duration of the climax of the eruption (6-8 hours), can lead to much quicker latitudinal spread than a point source (vent). We will discuss the results of the combined model (umbrella cloud and correct QBO phase) with historical accounts and observations, as well as previous work on the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. We also consider the likely impacts of water on aerosol concentrations and the relevance of this process for eruptions with possible significant seawater interactions, like Krakatau. We posit that the role of umbrella clouds is an under-appreciated, but significant, process for beginning to model the climatic impacts of large volcanic eruptions.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals The Impact of Parameterized Convection on Climatological Precipitation in Atmospheric Global Climate Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (8) ◽  
pp. 3728-3736 ◽  
Author(s):  
Penelope Maher ◽  
Geoffrey K. Vallis ◽  
Steven C. Sherwood ◽  
Mark J. Webb ◽  
Philip G. Sansom
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1383-1406 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Hezel ◽  
T. Fichefet ◽  
F. Massonnet
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Abstract. Almost all global climate models and Earth system models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) show strong declines in Arctic sea ice extent and volume under the highest forcing scenario of the Radiative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) through 2100, including a transition from perennial to seasonal ice cover. Extended RCP simulations through 2300 were completed for a~subset of models, and here we examine the time evolution of Arctic sea ice in these simulations. In RCP2.6, the summer Arctic sea ice extent increases compared to its minimum following the peak radiative forcing in 2044 in all 9 models. RCP4.5 demonstrates continued summer Arctic sea ice decline due to continued warming on longer time scales. These two scenarios imply that summer sea ice extent could begin to recover if and when radiative forcing from greenhouse gas concentrations were to decrease. In RCP8.5 the Arctic Ocean reaches annually ice-free conditions in 7 of 9 models. The ensemble of simulations completed under the extended RCPs provide insight into the global temperature increase at which sea ice disappears in the Arctic and reversibility of declines in seasonal sea ice extent.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model

2016 ◽  
Vol 155 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. SILVA ◽  
L. KUMAR ◽  
F. SHABANI ◽  
M. C. PICANÇO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Open Field ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYTomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most important vegetable crops globally and an important agricultural sector for generating employment. Open field cultivation of tomatoes exposes the crop to climatic conditions, whereas greenhouse production is protected. Hence, global warming will have a greater impact on open field cultivation of tomatoes rather than the controlled greenhouse environment. Although the scale of potential impacts is uncertain, there are techniques that can be implemented to predict these impacts. Global climate models (GCMs) are useful tools for the analysis of possible impacts on a species. The current study aims to determine the impacts of climate change and the major factors of abiotic stress that limit the open field cultivation of tomatoes in both the present and future, based on predicted global climate change using CLIMatic indEX and the A2 emissions scenario, together with the GCM Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Mk3·0 (CS), for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that large areas that currently have an optimum climate will become climatically marginal or unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes due to progressively increasing heat and dry stress in the future. Conversely, large areas now marginal and unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes will become suitable or optimal due to a decrease in cold stress. The current model may be useful for plant geneticists and horticulturalists who could develop new regional stress-resilient tomato cultivars based on needs related to these modelling projections.

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