scholarly journals The global impact of the transport sectors on atmospheric aerosol in 2030 – Part 1: Land transport and shipping

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (16) ◽  
pp. 22985-23025
Author(s):  
M. Righi ◽  
J. Hendricks ◽  
R. Sausen
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Aerosol ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Surface Level ◽  
Aerosol Module ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Using the EMAC global climate-chemistry model coupled to the aerosol module MADE, we simulate the impact of land transport and shipping emissions on global atmospheric aerosol and climate in 2030. Future emissions of short-lived gas and aerosol species follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) designed in support of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We compare the resulting 2030 land-transport- and shipping-induced aerosol concentrations to the ones obtained for the year 2000 in a previous study with the same model configuration. The simulations suggest that black carbon and aerosol nitrate are the most relevant pollutants from land transport in 2000 and 2030, but their impacts are characterized by very strong regional variations during this time period. Europe and North America experience a decrease in the land-transport-induced particle pollution, although in these regions this sector remains the dominant source of surface-level pollution in 2030 under all RCPs. In Southeast Asia, on the other hand, a significant increase is simulated, but in this region the surface-level pollution is still controlled by other sources than land transport. Shipping-induced air pollution is mostly due to aerosol sulfate and nitrate, which show opposite trends towards 2030. Sulfate is strongly reduced as a consequence of sulfur reduction policies in ship-fuels in force since 2010, while nitrate tends to increase due to the excess of ammonia following the reduction in ammonium-sulfate. The aerosol-induced climate impact of both sectors is dominated by aerosol-cloud effects and is projected to decrease between 2000 and 2030, nevertheless still contributing a significant radiative forcing to the Earth's radiation budget.

scholarly journals The global impact of the transport sectors on atmospheric aerosol in 2030 – Part 1: Land transport and shipping

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 633-651 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Righi ◽  
J. Hendricks ◽  
R. Sausen
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Atmospheric Aerosol ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Surface Level ◽  
Aerosol Dynamics ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Using the EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) global climate-chemistry model coupled to the aerosol module MADE (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications), we simulate the impact of land transport and shipping emissions on global atmospheric aerosol and climate in 2030. Future emissions of short-lived gas and aerosol species follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) designed in support of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We compare the resulting 2030 land-transport- and shipping-induced aerosol concentrations to the ones obtained for the year 2000 in a previous study with the same model configuration. The simulations suggest that black carbon and aerosol nitrate are the most relevant pollutants from land transport in 2000 and 2030 and their impacts are characterized by very strong regional variations during this time period. Europe and North America experience a decrease in the land-transport-induced particle pollution, although in these regions this sector remains a major source of surface-level pollution in 2030 under all RCPs. In Southeast Asia, however, a significant increase is simulated, but in this region the surface-level pollution is still controlled by other sources than land transport. Shipping-induced air pollution is mostly due to aerosol sulfate and nitrate, which show opposite trends towards 2030. Sulfate is strongly reduced as a consequence of sulfur reduction policies in ship fuels in force since 2010, while nitrate tends to increase due to the excess of ammonia following the reduction in ammonium sulfate. The aerosol-induced climate impact of both sectors is dominated by aerosol-cloud effects and is projected to decrease between 2000 and 2030, nevertheless still contributing a significant radiative forcing to Earth's radiation budget.

scholarly journals The global impact of the transport sectors on atmospheric aerosol in 2030 – Part 2: Aviation

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. 4481-4495 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mattia Righi ◽  
Johannes Hendricks ◽  
Robert Sausen
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Atmospheric Aerosol ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Particle Number ◽  
Number Concentration ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Particle Number Concentration ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We use the EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) global climate–chemistry model coupled to the aerosol module MADE (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications) to simulate the impact of aviation emissions on global atmospheric aerosol and climate in 2030. Emissions of short-lived gas and aerosol species follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) designed in support of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We compare our findings with the results of a previous study with the same model configuration focusing on year 2000 emissions. We also characterize the aviation results in the context of the other transport sectors presented in a companion paper. In spite of a relevant increase in aviation traffic volume and resulting emissions of aerosol (black carbon) and aerosol precursor species (nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide), the aviation effect on particle mass concentration in 2030 remains quite negligible (on the order of a few ng m−3), about 1 order of magnitude less than the increase in concentration due to other emission sources. Due to the relatively small size of the aviation-induced aerosol, however, the increase in particle number concentration is significant in all scenarios (about 1000 cm−3), mostly affecting the northern mid-latitudes at typical flight altitudes (7–12 km). This largely contributes to the overall change in particle number concentration between 2000 and 2030, which also results in significant climate effects due to aerosol–cloud interactions. Aviation is the only transport sector for which a larger impact on the Earth's radiation budget is simulated in the future: the aviation-induced radiative forcing in 2030 is more than doubled with respect to the year 2000 value of −15 mW m−2 in all scenarios, with a maximum value of −63 mW m−2 simulated for RCP2.6.

scholarly journals The global impact of the transport sectors on atmospheric aerosol in 2030 – Part 2: Aviation

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (23) ◽  
pp. 34035-34062
Author(s):  
M. Righi ◽  
J. Hendricks ◽  
R. Sausen
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Atmospheric Aerosol ◽  
Particle Number ◽  
Number Concentration ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Particle Number Concentration ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We use the EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) global climate-chemistry model coupled to the aerosol module MADE (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications) to simulate the impact of aviation emissions on global atmospheric aerosol and climate in 2030. Emissions of short-lived gas and aerosol species follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) designed in support of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We compare our findings with the results of a previous study with the same model configuration focusing on year 2000 emissions. We also characterize the aviation results in the context of the other transport sectors presented in a companion paper. In spite of a relevant increase in aviation traffic volume and resulting emissions of aerosol (black carbon) and aerosol precursor species (nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide), the aviation effect on particle mass concentration in 2030 remains quite negligible (on the order of a few ng m-3), about one order of magnitude less than the increase in concentration due to other emission sources. Due to the relatively small size of the aviation-induced aerosol, however, the increase in particle number concentration is significant in all scenarios (about 1000 cm-3), mostly affecting the northern mid-latitudes at typical flight altitudes (7–12 km). This largely contributes to the overall change in particle number concentration between 2000 and 2030, which results also in significant climate effects due to aerosol-cloud interactions. Aviation is the only transport sector for which a larger impact on the Earth's radiation budget is simulated in the future: The aviation-induced RF in 2030 is more than doubled with respect to the year 2000 value of −15 mW m-2, with a maximum value of −63 mW m-2 simulated for RCP2.6.

scholarly journals Regional emission metrics for short-lived climate forcers from multiple models

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. 7451-7468 ◽  
Author(s):  
Borgar Aamaas ◽  
Terje K. Berntsen ◽  
Jan S. Fuglestvedt ◽  
Keith P. Shine ◽  
Nicolas Bellouin
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Ozone Precursors ◽  
Direct Forcing ◽  
Rf Values ◽  
Global Temperature Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. For short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), the impact of emissions depends on where and when the emissions take place. Comprehensive new calculations of various emission metrics for SLCFs are presented based on radiative forcing (RF) values calculated in four different (chemical-transport or coupled chemistry–climate) models. We distinguish between emissions during summer (May–October) and winter (November–April) for emissions in Europe and East Asia, as well as from the global shipping sector and global emissions. The species included in this study are aerosols and aerosol precursors (BC, OC, SO2, NH3), as well as ozone precursors (NOx, CO, VOCs), which also influence aerosols to a lesser degree. Emission metrics for global climate responses of these emissions, as well as for CH4, have been calculated using global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature change potential (GTP), based on dedicated RF simulations by four global models. The emission metrics include indirect cloud effects of aerosols and the semi-direct forcing for BC. In addition to the standard emission metrics for pulse and sustained emissions, we have also calculated a new emission metric designed for an emission profile consisting of a ramping period of 15 years followed by sustained emissions, which is more appropriate for a gradual implementation of mitigation policies.For the aerosols, the emission metric values are larger in magnitude for emissions in Europe than East Asia and for summer than winter. A variation is also observed for the ozone precursors, with largest values for emissions in East Asia and winter for CO and in Europe and summer for VOCs. In general, the variations between the emission metrics derived from different models are larger than the variations between regions and seasons, but the regional and seasonal variations for the best estimate also hold for most of the models individually. Further, the estimated climate impact of an illustrative mitigation policy package is robust even when accounting for the fact that the magnitude of emission metrics for different species in a given model is correlated. For the ramping emission metrics, the values are generally larger than for pulse or sustained emissions, which holds for all SLCFs. For SLCFs mitigation policies, the dependency of metric values on the region and season of emission should be considered.

scholarly journals Surprising similarities in model and observational aerosol radiative forcing estimates

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 613-623 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Gryspeerdt ◽  
Johannes Mülmenstädt ◽  
Andrew Gettelman ◽  
Florent F. Malavelle ◽  
Hugh Morrison ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Aerosol Radiative Forcing ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The radiative forcing from aerosols (particularly through their interaction with clouds) remains one of the most uncertain components of the human forcing of the climate. Observation-based studies have typically found a smaller aerosol effective radiative forcing than in model simulations and were given preferential weighting in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). With their own sources of uncertainty, it is not clear that observation-based estimates are more reliable. Understanding the source of the model and observational differences is thus vital to reduce uncertainty in the impact of aerosols on the climate. These reported discrepancies arise from the different methods of separating the components of aerosol forcing used in model and observational studies. Applying the observational decomposition to global climate model (GCM) output, the two different lines of evidence are surprisingly similar, with a much better agreement on the magnitude of aerosol impacts on cloud properties. Cloud adjustments remain a significant source of uncertainty, particularly for ice clouds. However, they are consistent with the uncertainty from observation-based methods, with the liquid water path adjustment usually enhancing the Twomey effect by less than 50 %. Depending on different sets of assumptions, this work suggests that model and observation-based estimates could be more equally weighted in future synthesis studies.

scholarly journals Process-oriented analysis of aircraft soot-cirrus interactions constrains the climate impact of aviation

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernd Kärcher ◽  
Fabian Mahrt ◽  
Claudia Marcolli
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Soot Particles ◽  
Cloud Ice ◽  
The Impact

AbstractFully accounting for the climate impact of aviation requires a process-level understanding of the impact of aircraft soot particle emissions on the formation of ice clouds. Assessing this impact with the help of global climate models remains elusive and direct observations are lacking. Here we use a high-resolution cirrus column model to investigate how aircraft-emitted soot particles, released after ice crystals sublimate at the end of the lifetime of contrails and contrail cirrus, perturb the formation of cirrus. By allying cloud simulations with a measurement-based description of soot-induced ice formation, we find that only a small fraction (<1%) of the soot particles succeeds in forming cloud ice alongside homogeneous freezing of liquid aerosol droplets. Thus, soot-perturbed and homogeneously-formed cirrus fundamentally do not differ in optical depth. Our results imply that climate model estimates of global radiative forcing from interactions between aircraft soot and large-scale cirrus may be overestimates. The improved scientific understanding reported here provides a process-based underpinning for improved climate model parametrizations and targeted field observations.

scholarly journals Multimodel emission metrics for regional emissions of short lived climate forcers

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (18) ◽  
pp. 26089-26130 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Aamaas ◽  
T. K. Berntsen ◽  
J. S. Fuglestvedt ◽  
K. P. Shine ◽  
N. Bellouin
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Mitigation Policy ◽  
Ozone Precursors ◽  
Rf Values ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. For short lived climate forcers (SLCFs), the impact of emissions depends on where and when the emissions take place. Comprehensive new calculations of various emission metrics for SLCFs are presented based on radiative forcing (RF) values calculated in four different (chemistry-transport or coupled-chemistry climate) models. We distinguish between emissions during summer (May–October) and winter season (November–April) for emissions from Europe, East Asia, as well as the global shipping sector. The species included in this study are aerosols and aerosols precursors (BC, OC, SO2, NH3), and ozone precursors (NOx, CO, VOC), which also influence aerosols, to a lesser degree. Emission metrics for global climate responses of these emissions, as well as for CH4, have been calculated relative to CO2, using Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), based on dedicated RF simulations by four global models. The emission metrics include indirect cloud effects of aerosols and the semi-direct forcing for BC. In addition to the standard emission metrics for pulse and sustained emissions, we have also calculated a new emission metric designed for an emission profile consisting of a ramp up period of 15 years followed by sustained emissions, which is more appropriate for a gradual implementation of mitigation policies. For the aerosols, the emission metric values are larger in magnitude for Europe than East Asia and for summer than winter. A variation is also observed for the ozone precursors, with largest values in East Asia and winter for CO and in Europe and summer for VOC. In general, the variations between the emission metrics derived from different models are larger than the variations between regions and seasons, but the regional and seasonal variations for the best estimate also hold for most of the models individually. Further, the estimated climate impact of a mitigation policy package is robust even when accounting for correlations. For the ramp up emission metrics, the values are generally larger than for pulse or sustained emissions, which holds for all SLCFs. For a potential SLCFs mitigation policy, the dependency of metric values on the region and season of emission should be considered.

scholarly journals Global sensitivity of aviation NO<sub>x</sub> effects to the HNO<sub>3</sub>-forming channel of the HO<sub>2</sub> + NO reaction

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3003-3025 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Gottschaldt ◽  
C. Voigt ◽  
P. Jöckel ◽  
M. Righi ◽  
R. Deckert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Rate Coefficient ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Nox Emissions ◽  
Global Sensitivity ◽  
Cooling Effects ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of a recently proposed HNO3-forming channel of the HO2 + NO reaction on atmospheric ozone, methane and their precursors is assessed with the aim to investigate its effects on aviation NOx induced radiative forcing. The first part of the study addresses the differences in stratospheric and tropospheric HOx-NOx chemistry in general, by comparing a global climate simulation without the above reaction to two simulations with different rate coefficient parameterizations for HO2 + NO → HNO3. A possible enhancement of the reaction by humidity, as found by a laboratory study, particularly reduces the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere, increasing methane lifetime significantly. Since methane lifetime is an important parameter for determining global methane budgets, this might affect estimates of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. In the second part aviation NOx effects are isolated independently for each of the three above simulations. Warming and cooling effects of aircraft NOx emissions are both enhanced when considering the HNO3-forming channel, but the sum is shifted towards negative radiative forcing. Uncertainties associated with the inclusion of the HO2 + NO → HNO3 reaction and with its corresponding rate coefficient propagate a considerable additional uncertainty on estimates of the climate impact of aviation and on NOx-related mitigation strategies.

Revisiting the Krakatau 1883 Volcanic Aerosol Dispersal 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Castro ◽  
Tushar Mittal ◽  
Stephen Self
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Volcanic Plume ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Pinatubo Eruption ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;The 1883 Krakatau eruption is one of the most well-known historical volcanic eruptions due to its significant global climate impact as well as first recorded observations of various aerosol associated optical and physical phenomena. Although much work has been done on the former by comparison of global climate model predictions/ simulations with instrumental and proxy climate records, the latter has surprisingly not been studied in similar detail. In particular, there is a wealth of observations of vivid red sunsets, blue suns, and other similar features, that can be used to analyze the spatio-temporal dispersal of volcanic aerosols in summer to winter 1883. Thus, aerosol cloud dispersal after the Krakatau eruption can be estimated, bolstered by aerosol cloud behavior as monitored by satellite-based instrument observations after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. This is one of a handful of large historic eruptions where this analysis can be done (using non-climate proxy methods). In this study, we model particle trajectories of the Krakatau eruption cloud using the Hysplit trajectory model and compare our results with our compiled observational dataset (principally using Verbeek 1884, the Royal Society report, and Kiessling 1884).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In particular, we explore the effect of different atmospheric states - the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) which impacts zonal movement of the stratospheric volcanic plume - to estimate the phase of the QBO in 1883 required for a fast-moving westward cloud. Since this alone is unable to match the observed latitudinal spread of the aerosols, we then explore the impact of an&amp;#160; umbrella cloud (2000 km diameter) that almost certainly formed during such a large eruption. A large umbrella cloud, spreading over ~18 degrees within the duration of the climax of the eruption (6-8 hours), can lead to much quicker latitudinal spread than a point source (vent). We will discuss the results of the combined model (umbrella cloud and correct QBO phase) with historical accounts and observations, as well as previous work on the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. We also consider the likely impacts of water on aerosol concentrations and the relevance of this process for eruptions with possible significant seawater interactions, like Krakatau. We posit that the role of umbrella clouds is an under-appreciated, but significant, process for beginning to model the climatic impacts of large volcanic eruptions.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Transport of the 2017 Canadian wildfire plume to the tropics via the Asian monsoon circulation

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (21) ◽  
pp. 13547-13567 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corinna Kloss ◽  
Gwenaël Berthet ◽  
Pasquale Sellitto ◽  
Felix Ploeger ◽  
Silvia Bucci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Fire Plume ◽  
Monsoon Area ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We show that a fire plume injected into the lower stratosphere at high northern latitudes during the Canadian wildfire event in August 2017 partly reached the tropics. The transport to the tropics was mediated by the anticyclonic flow of the Asian monsoon circulation. The fire plume reached the Asian monsoon area in late August/early September, when the Asian monsoon anticyclone (AMA) was still in place. While there is no evidence of mixing into the center of the AMA, we show that a substantial part of the fire plume is entrained into the anticyclonic flow at the AMA edge and is transported from the extratropics to the tropics, and possibly the Southern Hemisphere particularly following the north–south flow on the eastern side of the AMA. In the tropics the fire plume is lifted by ∼5 km in 7 months. Inside the AMA we find evidence of the Asian tropopause aerosol layer (ATAL) in August, doubling background aerosol conditions with a calculated top of the atmosphere shortwave radiative forcing of −0.05 W m−2. The regional climate impact of the fire signal in the wider Asian monsoon area in September exceeds the impact of the ATAL by a factor of 2–4 and compares to that of a plume coming from an advected moderate volcanic eruption. The stratospheric, trans-continental transport of this plume to the tropics and the related regional climate impact point to the importance of long-range dynamical interconnections of pollution sources.

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