scholarly journals Stratospheric impact on the Northern Hemisphere winter and spring ozone interannual variability in the troposphere

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 6417-6433
Author(s):  
Junhua Liu ◽  
Jose M. Rodriguez ◽  
Luke D. Oman ◽  
Anne R. Douglass ◽  
Mark A. Olsen ◽  
...  

Abstract. In this study we use ozone and stratospheric ozone tracer simulations from the high-resolution (0.5∘×0.5∘) Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5), in a replay mode to study the impact of stratospheric ozone on tropospheric ozone interannual variability (IAV). We use these simulations in conjunction with ozonesonde measurements from 1990 to 2016 during the winter and spring seasons. The simulations include a stratospheric ozone tracer (StratO3) to aid in the evaluation of the impact of stratospheric ozone IAV on the IAV of tropospheric ozone at different altitudes and locations. The model is in good agreement with the observed interannual variation in tropospheric ozone, except for the post-Pinatubo period (1992–1994) over the region of North America. Ozonesonde data show a negative ozone anomaly in 1992–1994 following the Pinatubo eruption, with recovery thereafter. The simulated anomaly is only half the magnitude of that observed. Our analysis suggests that the simulated stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) flux deduced from the analysis might be too strong over the North American (50–70∘ N) region after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in the early 1990s, masking the impact of lower stratospheric ozone concentration on tropospheric ozone. European ozonesonde measurements show a similar but weaker ozone depletion after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, which is fully reproduced by the model. Analysis based on the stratospheric ozone tracer identifies differences in strength and vertical extent of stratospheric ozone impact on the tropospheric ozone interannual variation (IAV) between North America and Europe. Over North American stations, the StratO3 IAV has a significant impact on tropospheric ozone from the upper to lower troposphere and explains about 60 % and 66 % of the simulated ozone IAV at 400 hPa and ∼11 % and 34 % at 700 hPa in winter and spring, respectively. Over European stations, the influence is limited to the middle to upper troposphere and becomes much smaller at 700 hPa. The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), assimilated fields exhibit strong longitudinal variations over Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-high latitudes, with lower tropopause height and lower geopotential height over North America than over Europe. These variations associated with the relevant variations in the location of tropospheric jet flows are responsible for the longitudinal differences in the stratospheric ozone impact, with stronger effects over North America than over Europe.

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junhua Liu ◽  
Jose M. Rodriguez ◽  
Luke D. Oman ◽  
Anne R. Douglass ◽  
Mark A. Olsen ◽  
...  

Abstract. In this study we use O3 and stratospheric O3 tracer simulations from the high-resolution Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Replay run (MERRA-2 GMI at 0.5° model resolution ~ 50 km) and observations from ozonesondes to investigate the interannual variation and vertical extent of the stratospheric ozone impact on tropospheric ozone. Our work focuses on the winter and spring seasons over North America and Europe. The model reproduces the observed interannual variation of tropospheric O3, except for the Pinatubo period from 1991 to 1995 over the region of North America. Ozonesonde data show a negative ozone anomaly in 1992–1994 following the Pinatubo eruption, with recovery thereafter. The simulated anomaly is only half the magnitude of that observed. Our analysis suggests that the simulated Stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) flux deduced from the analysis might be too strong over the North American (50° N–70° N) region after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in the early 1990s, masking the impact of lower stratospheric O3 concentration on tropospheric O3. European ozonesonde measurements show a similar but weaker O3 depletion after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, which is fully reproduced by the model. Analysis based on a stratospheric O3 tracer (StratO3) identifies differences in strength and vertical extent of stratospheric ozone influence on the tropospheric ozone interannual variation (IAV) between North America and Europe. Over North America, the StratO3 IAV has a significant impact on tropospheric O3 from the upper to lower troposphere and explains about 60 % and 66 % of simulated O3 IAV at 400 hPa, ~ 11 % and 34 % at 700 hPa in winter and spring respectively. Over Europe, the influence is limited to the middle to upper troposphere, and becomes much smaller at 700 hPa. The stronger and deeper stratospheric contributions in the tropospheric O3 IAV over North America shown by the model is likely related to ozonesondes' being closer to the polar vortex in winter with lower geopotential height, lower tropopause height, and stronger coupling to the Arctic Oscillation in the lower troposphere (LT) than over Europe.


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (22) ◽  
pp. 14387-14401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitris Akritidis ◽  
Andrea Pozzer ◽  
Prodromos Zanis

Abstract. Using a transient simulation for the period 1960–2100 with the state-of-the-art ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) global model and a tropopause fold identification algorithm, we explore the future projected changes in tropopause folds, stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) of ozone, and tropospheric ozone under the RCP6.0 scenario. Statistically significant changes in tropopause fold frequencies from 1970–1999 to 2070–2099 are identified in both hemispheres, regionally exceeding 3 %, and are associated with the projected changes in the position and intensity of the subtropical jet streams. A strengthening of ozone STT is projected for the future in both hemispheres, with an induced increase in transported stratospheric ozone tracer throughout the whole troposphere, reaching up to 10 nmol mol−1 in the upper troposphere, 8 nmol mol−1 in the middle troposphere, and 3 nmol mol−1 near the surface. Notably, the regions exhibiting the largest changes of ozone STT at 400 hPa coincide with those with the highest fold frequency changes, highlighting the role of the tropopause folding mechanism in STT processes under a changing climate. For both the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) and Afghanistan (AFG) regions, which are known as hotspots of fold activity and ozone STT during the summer period, the year-to-year variability of middle-tropospheric ozone with stratospheric origin is largely explained by the short-term variations in ozone at 150 hPa and tropopause fold frequency. Finally, ozone in the lower troposphere is projected to decrease under the RCP6.0 scenario during MAM (March, April, and May) and JJA (June, July, and August) in the Northern Hemisphere and during DJF (December, January, and February) in the Southern Hemisphere, due to the decline of ozone precursor emissions and the enhanced ozone loss from higher water vapour abundances, while in the rest of the troposphere ozone shows a remarkable increase owing mainly to the STT strengthening and the stratospheric ozone recovery.


2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (18) ◽  
pp. 5799-5814 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas J. Lutsko ◽  
Jane Wilson Baldwin ◽  
Timothy W. Cronin

Abstract The impact of large-scale orography on wintertime near-surface (850 hPa) temperature variability on daily and synoptic time scales (from days to weeks) in the Northern Hemisphere is investigated. Using a combination of theory, idealized modeling work, and simulations with a comprehensive climate model, it is shown that large-scale orography reduces upstream temperature gradients, in turn reducing upstream temperature variability, and enhances downstream temperature gradients, enhancing downstream temperature variability. Hence, the presence of the Rockies on the western edge of the North American continent increases temperature gradients over North America and, consequently, increases North American temperature variability. By contrast, the presence of the Tibetan Plateau and the Himalayas on the eastern edge of the Eurasian continent damps temperature variability over most of Eurasia. However, Tibet and the Himalayas also interfere with the downstream development of storms in the North Pacific storm track, and thus damp temperature variability over North America, by approximately as much as the Rockies enhance it. Large-scale orography is also shown to impact the skewness of downstream temperature distributions, as temperatures to the north of the enhanced temperature gradients are more positively skewed while temperatures to the south are more negatively skewed. This effect is most clearly seen in the northwest Pacific, off the east coast of Japan.


2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 2341-2365 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Hess ◽  
D. Kinnison ◽  
Q. Tang

Abstract. Despite the need to understand the impact of changes in emissions and climate on tropospheric ozone, the attribution of tropospheric interannual ozone variability to specific processes has proven difficult. Here, we analyze the stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone variability and trends from 1953 to 2005 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes using four ensemble simulations of the free running (FR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The simulations are externally forced with observed time-varying (1) sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), (2) greenhouse gases (GHGs), (3) ozone depleting substances (ODS), (4) quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), (5) solar variability (SV) and (6) stratospheric sulfate surface area density (SAD). A detailed representation of stratospheric chemistry is simulated, including the ozone loss due to volcanic eruptions and polar stratospheric clouds. In the troposphere, ozone production is represented by CH4–NOx smog chemistry, where surface chemical emissions remain interannually constant. Despite the simplicity of its tropospheric chemistry, at many NH measurement locations, the interannual ozone variability in the FR WACCM simulations is significantly correlated with the measured interannual variability. This suggests the importance of the external forcing applied in these simulations in driving interannual ozone variability. The variability and trend in the simulated 1953–2005 tropospheric ozone from 30 to 90° N at background surface measurement sites, 500 hPa measurement sites and in the area average are largely explained on interannual timescales by changes in the 30–90° N area averaged flux of ozone across the 100 hPa surface and changes in tropospheric methane concentrations. The average sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to methane (percent change in ozone to a percent change in methane) from 30 to 90° N is 0.17 at 500 hPa and 0.21 at the surface; the average sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to the 100 hPa ozone flux (percent change in ozone to a percent change in the ozone flux) from 30 to 90° N is 0.19 at 500 hPa and 0.11 at the surface. The 30–90° N simulated downward residual velocity at 100 hPa increased by 15% between 1953 and 2005. However, the impact of this on the 30–90° N 100 hPa ozone flux is modulated by the long-term changes in stratospheric ozone. The ozone flux decreases from 1965 to 1990 due to stratospheric ozone depletion, but increases again by approximately 7% from 1990 to 2005. The first empirical orthogonal function of interannual ozone variability explains from 40% (at the surface) to over 80% (at 150 hPa) of the simulated ozone interannual variability from 30 to 90° N. This identified mode of ozone variability shows strong stratosphere–troposphere coupling, demonstrating the importance of the stratosphere in an attribution of tropospheric ozone variability. The simulations, with no change in emissions, capture almost 50% of the measured ozone change during the 1990s at a variety of locations. This suggests that a large portion of the measured change is not due to changes in emissions, but can be traced to changes in large-scale modes of ozone variability. This emphasizes the difficulty in the attribution of ozone changes, and the importance of natural variability in understanding the trends and variability of ozone. We find little relation between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and large-scale tropospheric ozone variability over the long-term record.


2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (23) ◽  
pp. 11681-11705 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Koffi ◽  
S. Szopa ◽  
A. Cozic ◽  
D. Hauglustaine ◽  
P. van Velthoven

Abstract. In this study, the LMDz-INCA climate-chemistry model and up-to-date global emission inventories are used to investigate the "present" (2000) and future (2050) impacts of transport emissions (road traffic, shipping and aircraft) on global tropospheric ozone. For the first time, both impacts of emissions and climate changes on transport-induced ozone are investigated. The 2000 transport emissions are shown to mainly affect ozone in the Northern Hemisphere, with a maximum increase of the tropospheric column of up to 5 DU, from the South-eastern US to Central Europe. The impact is dominated by road traffic in the middle and upper troposphere, North of 40° S, and by shipping in the northern lower troposphere, over oceanic regions. A strong reduction of road emissions and a moderate (B1 scenario) to high (A1B scenario) increase of the ship and aircraft emissions are projected by the year 2050. As a consequence, LMDz-INCA simulations predict a drastic decrease in the impact of road emissions, whereas aviation would become the major transport perturbation on tropospheric ozone, even in the case of a very optimistic aircraft mitigation scenario. The A1B emission scenario leads to an increase of the impact of transport on zonal mean ozone concentrations in 2050 by up to +30% and +50%, in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. Despite a similar total amount of global NOx emissions by the various transport sectors compared to 2000, the overall impact on the tropospheric ozone column is increased everywhere in 2050, due to a sectoral shift in the emissions of the respective transport modes. On the opposite, the B1 mitigation scenario leads to a significant reduction (by roughly 50%) of the ozone perturbation throughout the troposphere compared to 2000. Considering climate change, and according to scenario A1B, a decrease of the O3 tropospheric burden is simulated by 2050 due to climate change (−1.2%), whereas an increase of ozone of up to 2% is calculated in the upper troposphere in the inter-tropical zone, due to enhanced lightning activity. A global impact of similar magnitude is simulated for the transport-induced ozone burden perturbation (−1.6%). As a result, the future increase in global ozone due to changes in anthropogenic emissions is lowered by 12% and by 4%, for the background and the transport-induced ozone, respectively. However, positive and negative climate effects are obtained on ozone, depending on the season, region and altitude, with an increase of the transport-induced ozone perturbation (+0.4 DU) in the already most affected area of Northern Hemisphere.


2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 15755-15809
Author(s):  
B. Koffi ◽  
S. Szopa ◽  
A. Cozic ◽  
D. Hauglustaine ◽  
P. van Velthoven

Abstract. In this study, the LMDz-INCA climate-chemistry model and up-to-date global emission inventories are used to investigate the "present" (2000) and future (2050) impacts of transport emissions (road traffic, shipping and aircraft) on global tropospheric ozone. For the first time, both impacts of emissions and climate changes on transport-induced ozone are investigated. The 2000 transport emissions are shown to mainly affect ozone in the Northern Hemisphere, with a maximum increase of the tropospheric column of up to 5 DU, from the South-Eastern US to Central Europe. The impact is dominated by road traffic in the middle and upper troposphere, north of 40° S, and by shipping in the northern lower troposphere, over oceanic regions. A strong reduction of road emissions and amoderate (B1 scenario) to high (A1B scenario) increase of the ship and aircraft emissions are expected by the year 2050. As a consequence, LMDz-INCA simulations predict a drastic decrease in the impact of road emissions, whereas aviation would become the major transport perturbation on tropospheric ozone, even in the case of avery optimistic aircraft mitigation scenario. The A1B emission scenario leads to an increase of the impact of transport on zonal mean ozone concentrations in 2050 by up to +30% and +50%, in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. Despite asimilar total amount of global NOx emissions by the various transport sectors compared to 2000, the overall impact on the tropospheric ozone column is increased everywhere in 2050, due to a sectoral shift in the emissions of the respective transport modes. On the opposite, the B1 mitigation scenario leads to asignificant reduction (by roughly 50%) of the ozone perturbation throughout the troposphere compared to 2000. Considering climate change, and according to scenario A1B, a decrease of the O3 tropospheric burden is simulated by 2050 due to climate change (−1.2%), whereas an increase of ozone of up to 2% is calculated in the upper troposphere in the inter-tropical zone, due to enhanced lightning activity. A global impact of similar magnitude is simulated for the transport-induced ozone burden perturbation (−1.6%). As a result, the future increase in global ozone due to changes in anthropogenic emissions is lowered by 12% and by 4%, for the background and the transport-induced ozone, respectively. However, positive and negative climate effects are obtained on ozone, depending on the season, region and altitude, with an increase of the transport-induced ozone perturbation (+0.4 DU) in the already most affected area of Northern Hemisphere.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitris Akritidis ◽  
Andrea Pozzer ◽  
Prodromos Zanis

Abstract. Using a transient simulation for the period 1960–2100 with the state-of-the-art ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) global model and a tropopause fold identification algorithm, we explore the future projected changes in tropopause folds, Stratosphere-to-Troposphere Transport (STT) of ozone and tropospheric ozone under the RCP6.0 scenario. Statistically significant changes in tropopause fold frequencies are identified in both Hemispheres, occasionally exceeding 3 %, which are associated with the projected changes in the position and intensity of the subtropical jet streams. A strengthening of ozone STT is projected for future at both Hemispheres, with an induced increase of transported stratospheric ozone tracer throughout the whole troposphere, reaching up to 10 nmol/mol in the upper troposphere, 8 nmol/mol in the middle troposphere and 3 nmol/mol near the surface. Notably, the regions exhibiting the maxima changes of ozone STT at 400 hPa, coincide with that of the highest fold frequencies, highlighting the role of tropopause folding mechanism in STT process under a changing climate. For both the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME), and the Afghanistan (AFG) regions, which are known as hotspots of fold activity and ozone STT during the summer period, the year-to-year variability of middle tropospheric ozone with stratospheric origin is largely explained by the short-term variations of ozone at 150 hPa and tropopause folds frequency. Finally, ozone in the lower troposphere is projected to decrease under the RCP6.0 scenario during MAM (March, April and May) and JJA (June, July and August) at the Northern Hemisphere, and during DJF (December, January and February) at the Southern Hemisphere, due to the decline of ozone precursors emissions, while in the rest of the troposphere ozone shows a remarkable increase owing to the STT strengthening.


2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (9) ◽  
pp. 3834-3845 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas L. Delworth ◽  
Fanrong Zeng ◽  
Anthony Rosati ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Andrew T. Wittenberg

Abstract Portions of western North America have experienced prolonged drought over the last decade. This drought has occurred at the same time as the global warming hiatus—a decadal period with little increase in global mean surface temperature. Climate models and observational analyses are used to clarify the dual role of recent tropical Pacific changes in driving both the global warming hiatus and North American drought. When observed tropical Pacific wind stress anomalies are inserted into coupled models, the simulations produce persistent negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific, a hiatus in global warming, and drought over North America driven by SST-induced atmospheric circulation anomalies. In the simulations herein the tropical wind anomalies account for 92% of the simulated North American drought during the recent decade, with 8% from anthropogenic radiative forcing changes. This suggests that anthropogenic radiative forcing is not the dominant driver of the current drought, unless the wind changes themselves are driven by anthropogenic radiative forcing. The anomalous tropical winds could also originate from coupled interactions in the tropical Pacific or from forcing outside the tropical Pacific. The model experiments suggest that if the tropical winds were to return to climatological conditions, then the recent tendency toward North American drought would diminish. Alternatively, if the anomalous tropical winds were to persist, then the impact on North American drought would continue; however, the impact of the enhanced Pacific easterlies on global temperature diminishes after a decade or two due to a surface reemergence of warmer water that was initially subducted into the ocean interior.


mSphere ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryan S. Kaplan ◽  
Marion Russier ◽  
Trushar Jeevan ◽  
Bindumadhav Marathe ◽  
Elena A. Govorkova ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT Highly pathogenic H5 influenza viruses have been introduced into North America from Asia, causing extensive morbidity and mortality in domestic poultry. The introduced viruses have reassorted with North American avian influenza viruses, generating viral genotypes not seen on other continents. The experiments and analyses presented here were designed to assess the impact of this genetic diversification on viral phenotypes, particularly as regards mammalian hosts, by comparing the North American viruses with their Eurasian precursor viruses. Highly pathogenic influenza A(H5N8) viruses from clade 2.3.4.4 were introduced to North America by migratory birds in the fall of 2014. Reassortment of A(H5N8) viruses with avian viruses of North American lineage resulted in the generation of novel A(H5N2) viruses with novel genotypes. Through sequencing of recent avian influenza viruses, we identified PB1 and NP gene segments very similar to those in the viruses isolated from North American waterfowl prior to the introduction of A(H5N8) to North America, highlighting these bird species in the origin of reassortant A(H5N2) viruses. While they were highly virulent and transmissible in poultry, we found A(H5N2) viruses to be low pathogenic in mice and ferrets, and replication was limited in both hosts compared with those of recent highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viruses. Molecular characterization of the hemagglutinin protein from A(H5N2) viruses showed that the receptor binding preference, cleavage, and pH of activation were highly adapted for replication in avian species and similar to those of other 2.3.4.4 viruses. In addition, North American and Eurasian clade 2.3.4.4 H5NX viruses replicated to significantly lower titers in differentiated normal human bronchial epithelial cells than did seasonal human A(H1N1) and highly pathogenic A(H5N1) viruses isolated from a human case. Thus, despite their having a high impact on poultry, our findings suggest that the recently emerging North American A(H5N2) viruses are not expected to pose a substantial threat to humans and other mammals without further reassortment and/or adaptation and that reassortment with North American viruses has not had a major impact on viral phenotype. IMPORTANCE Highly pathogenic H5 influenza viruses have been introduced into North America from Asia, causing extensive morbidity and mortality in domestic poultry. The introduced viruses have reassorted with North American avian influenza viruses, generating viral genotypes not seen on other continents. The experiments and analyses presented here were designed to assess the impact of this genetic diversification on viral phenotypes, particularly as regards mammalian hosts, by comparing the North American viruses with their Eurasian precursor viruses.


2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 225-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Newchurch ◽  
D. Sun ◽  
J. H. Kim ◽  
X. Liu

Abstract. Using TOMS total-ozone measurements over high-altitude cloud locations and nearby paired clear locations, we describe the Clear-Cloudy Pairs (CCP) method for deriving tropical tropospheric ozone. The high-altitude clouds are identified by measured 380 nm reflectivities greater than 80% and Temperature Humidity InfraRed (THIR) measured cloud-top pressures less than 200 hPa. To account for locations without high-altitude clouds, we apply a zonal sine fitting to the stratospheric ozone derived from available cloudy points, resulting in a wave-one amplitude of about 4 DU. THIR data is unavailable after November 1984, so we extend the CCP method by using a reflectivity threshold of 90% to identify high-altitude clouds and remove the influence of high-reflectivity-but-low-altitude clouds with a lowpass frequency filter. We correct ozone retrieval errors associated with clouds, and ozone retrieval errors due to sun glint and aerosols. Comparing CCP results with Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes (SHADOZ) tropospheric ozone indicates that CCP tropospheric ozone and ozonesonde measurements are highly consistent. The most significant difference between CCP and ozonesonde tropospheric ozone can be explained by the low Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) retrieval efficiency of ozone in the lower troposphere.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document