scholarly journals Vertical distribution of aerosols over the Maritime Continent during El Nino

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Blake Cohen ◽  
Daniel Hui Loong Ng ◽  
Alan Wei Lun Lim ◽  
Xin Rong Chua
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Distribution ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Fire Plume ◽  
Radiative Power ◽  
Fire Properties ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Fire Radiative Power

Abstract. The vertical distribution of aerosols over Southeast Asia, a critical factor of aerosol lifetime, and impact on radiative forcing and precipitation, is examined for the 2006 post El-Nino fire burning season. Additionally, through analysis of measurements and modeling, we have reconfirmed the hypothesis that fire radiative power is underestimated. Our results are significantly different from what others are using. The horizontally constrained Maritime Continent’s fire plume median height, using the maximum variance of satellite observed Aerosol Optical Depth as the spatial and temporal constraint, is found to be 2.17 ± 1.53 km during the 2006 El Nino season. This is 0.96 km higher than random sampling and all other past studies, with 62 % of particles in the free troposphere. The impact is that the aerosol lifetime will be significantly longer, and that the aerosols will disperse in a direction different from if they were in the boundary layer. Application of a simple plume rise model using measurements of fire properties underestimates the median plume height by 0.34 km and more in the bottom-half of the plume. The center of the plume can be reproduced when fire radiative power is increased by 20 % (range from 0 % to 100 %). However, to reduce the biases found, improvements are required in terms of measurements of fire properties when cloud covered, representation of small scale convection, and inclusion of aerosol direct and semi-direct effects. The results provide the unique aerosol signature of fire under El-Nino conditions.

scholarly journals Vertical distribution of aerosols over the Maritime Continent during El Niño

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 7095-7108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Blake Cohen ◽  
Daniel Hui Loong Ng ◽  
Alan Wei Lun Lim ◽  
Xin Rong Chua
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Distribution ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Free Troposphere ◽  
Fire Plume ◽  
Radiative Power ◽  
Fire Properties ◽  
Aerosol Plume ◽  
Fire Radiative Power

Abstract. The vertical distribution of aerosols over Southeast Asia, a critical factor impacting aerosol lifetime, radiative forcing, and precipitation, is examined for the 2006 post El Niño fire burning season. Combining these measurements with remotely sensed land, fire, and meteorological measurements, and fire plume modeling, we have reconfirmed that fire radiative power (FRP) is underestimated over Southeast Asia by MODIS measurements. These results are derived using a significantly different approach from other previously attempted approaches found in the literature. The horizontally constrained Maritime Continent's fire plume median height, using the maximum variance of satellite observed aerosol optical depth as the spatial and temporal constraint, is found to be 2.04 ± 1.52 km during the entirety of the 2006 El Niño fire season, and 2.19±1.50 km for October 2006. This is 0.83 km (0.98 km) higher than random sampling and all other past studies. Additionally, it is determined that 61 (+6–10) % of the bottom of the smoke plume and 83 (+8–11) % of the median of the smoke plume is in the free troposphere during the October maximum; while 49 (+7–9) % and 75 (+12–12) % of the total aerosol plume and the median of the aerosol plume, are correspondingly found in the free troposphere during the entire fire season. This vastly different vertical distribution will have impacts on aerosol lifetime and dispersal. Application of a simple plume rise model using measurements of fire properties underestimates the median plume height by 0.26 km over the entire fire season and 0.34 km over the maximum fire period. It is noted that the model underestimation over the bottom portions of the plume are much larger. The center of the plume can be reproduced when fire radiative power is increased by 20 % (with other parts of the plume ranging from an increase of 0 to 60 % depending on the portion of the plume and the length of the fire season considered). However, to reduce the biases found, improvements including fire properties under cloudy conditions, representation of small-scale convection, and inclusion of aerosol direct and semi-direct effects are required.

scholarly journals Coping with abrupt environmental change: the impact of the coastal El Niño 2017 on artisanal fisheries and mariculture in North Peru

2018 ◽  
Vol 76 (4) ◽  
pp. 1122-1130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lotta Clara Kluger ◽  
Sophia Kochalski ◽  
Arturo Aguirre-Velarde ◽  
Ivonne Vivar ◽  
Matthias Wolff
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Artisanal Fisheries ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Coastal El Niño

Abstract In February and March 2017, a coastal El Niño caused extraordinary heavy rains and a rise in water temperatures along the coast of northern Peru. In this work, we document the impacts of this phenomenon on the artisanal fisheries and the scallop aquaculture sector, both of which represent important socio-economic activities for the province of Sechura. Despite the perceived absence of effective disaster management and rehabilitation policies, resource users opted for a wide range of different adaptation strategies and are currently striving towards recovery. One year after the event, the artisanal fisheries fleet has returned to operating almost on a normal scale, while the aquaculture sector is still drastically impacted, with many people continuing to work in different economic sectors and even in other regions of the country. Recovery of the social-ecological system of Sechura likely depends on the occurrence of scallop seed and the financial capacity of small-scale producers to reinitiate scallop cultures. Long-term consequences of this coastal El Niño are yet to be studied, though the need to develop trans-local and trans-sectoral management strategies for coping with disturbance events of this scale is emphasized.

scholarly journals Top-Down Estimation of Particulate Matter Emissions from Extreme Tropical Peatland Fires Using Geostationary Satellite Fire Radiative Power Observations

Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (24) ◽  
pp. 7075
Author(s):  
Daniel Fisher ◽  
Martin J. Wooster ◽  
Weidong Xu ◽  
Gareth Thomas ◽  
Puji Lestari
Keyword(s):  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Se Asia ◽  
Particulate Matter Emissions ◽  
Radiative Power ◽  
Fire Radiative Power

Extreme fires in the peatlands of South East (SE) Asia are arguably the world’s greatest biomass burning events, resulting in some of the worst ambient air pollution ever recorded (PM10 > 3000 µg·m−3). The worst of these fires coincide with El Niño related droughts, and include huge areas of smouldering combustion that can persist for months. However, areas of flaming surface vegetation combustion atop peat are also seen, and we show that the largest of these latter fires appear to be the most radiant and intensely smoke-emitting areas of combustion present in such extreme fire episodes. Fire emissions inventories and early warning of the air quality impacts of landscape fire are increasingly based on the fire radiative power (FRP) approach to fire emissions estimation, including for these SE Asia peatland fires. “Top-down” methods estimate total particulate matter emissions directly from FRP observations using so-called “smoke emission coefficients” [Ce; g·MJ−1], but currently no discrimination is made between fire types during such calculations. We show that for a subset of some of the most thermally radiant peatland fires seen during the 2015 El Niño, the most appropriate Ce is around a factor of three lower than currently assumed (~16.8 ± 1.6 g·MJ−1 vs. 52.4 g·MJ−1). Analysis indicates that this difference stems from these highly radiant fires containing areas of substantial flaming combustion, which changes the amount of particulate matter emitted per unit of observable fire radiative heat release in comparison to more smouldering dominated events. We also show that even a single one of these most radiant fires is responsible for almost 10% of the overall particulate matter released during the 2015 fire event, highlighting the importance of this fire type to overall emission totals. Discriminating these different fires types in ways demonstrated herein should thus ultimately improve the accuracy of SE Asian fire emissions estimates derived using the FRP approach, and the air quality modelling which they support.

scholarly journals Stratospheric geoengineering impacts on El Niño/Southern Oscillation

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 9173-9202 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. J. Gabriel ◽  
A. Robock
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. To examine the impact of proposed stratospheric geoengineering schemes on the amplitude and frequency of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variations we examine climate model simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G1–G4 experiments. Here we compare tropical Pacific behavior under anthropogenic global warming (AGW) using the representative concentration pathway resulting in 4.5 W m−2 radiative forcing at the end of the 21st Century, the RCP4.5 scenario, with that under G1–G4 and under historical model simulations. Climate models under AGW project relatively uniform warming across the tropical Pacific over the next several decades. We find no statistically significant change in ENSO frequency or amplitude under stratospheric geoengineering as compared with those that would occur under ongoing AGW.

The Impact of ENSO on Wave Breaking and Southern Annular Mode Events

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (9) ◽  
pp. 2854-2870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tingting Gong ◽  
Steven B. Feldstein ◽  
Dehai Luo
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Wave Breaking ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Background Flow ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study examines the relationship between intraseasonal southern annular mode (SAM) events and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using daily 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. The data coverage spans the years 1979–2002, for the austral spring and summer seasons. The focus of this study is on the question of why positive SAM events dominate during La Niña and negative SAM events during El Niño. A composite analysis is performed on the zonal-mean zonal wind, Eliassen–Palm fluxes, and two diagnostic variables: the meridional potential vorticity gradient, a zonal-mean quantity that is used to estimate the likelihood of wave breaking, and the wave breaking index (WBI), which is used to evaluate the strength of the wave breaking. The results of this investigation suggest that the background zonal-mean flow associated with La Niña (El Niño) is preconditioned for strong (weak) anticyclonic wave breaking on the equatorward side of the eddy-driven jet, the type of wave breaking that is found to drive positive (negative) SAM events. A probability density function analysis of the WBI, for both La Niña and El Niño, indicates that strong anticyclonic wave breaking takes place much more frequently during La Niña and weak anticyclonic wave breaking during El Niño. It is suggested that these wave breaking characteristics, and their dependency on the background flow, can explain the strong preference for SAM events of one phase during ENSO. The analysis also shows that austral spring SAM events that coincide with ENSO are preceded by strong stratospheric SAM anomalies and then are followed by a prolonged period of wave breaking that lasts for approximately 30 days. These findings suggest that the ENSO background flow also plays a role in the excitation of stratospheric SAM anomalies and that the presence of these stratospheric SAM anomalies in turn excites and then maintains the tropospheric SAM anomalies via a positive eddy feedback.

scholarly journals Climate Change Implications Found in Winter Extreme Sea Level Height Records around Korea

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 377
Author(s):  
Dong Eun Lee ◽  
Jaehee Kim ◽  
Yujin Heo ◽  
Hyunjin Kang ◽  
Eun Young Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Thermal Expansion ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Level Height

The impact of climatic variability in atmospheric conditions on coastal environments accompanies adjustments in both the frequency and intensity of coastal storm surge events. The top winter season daily maximum sea level height events at 20 tidal stations around South Korea were examined to assess such impact of winter extratropical cyclone variability. As the investigation focusses on the most extreme sea level events, the impact of climate change is found to be invisible. It is revealed that the measures of extreme sea level events—frequency and intensity—do not correlate with the local sea surface temperature anomalies. Meanwhile, the frequency of winter extreme events exhibits a clear association with the concurrent climatic indices. It was determined that the annual frequency of the all-time top 5% winter daily maximum sea level events significantly and positively correlates with the NINO3.4 and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices at the majority of the 20 tidal stations. Hence, this indicates an increase in extreme event frequency and intensity, despite localized temperature cooling. This contradicts the expectation of increases in local extreme sea level events due to thermal expansion and global climate change. During El Nino, it is suggested that northward shifts of winter storm tracks associated with El Nino occur, disturbing the sea level around Korea more often. The current dominance of interannual storm track shifts, due to climate variability, over the impact of slow rise on the winter extreme sea level events, implies that coastal extreme sea level events will change through changes in the mechanical drivers rather than thermal expansion. The major storm tracks are predicted to continue shifting northward. The winter extreme sea level events in the midlatitude coastal region might not go through a monotonic change. They are expected to occur more often and more intensively in the near future, but might not continue doing so when northward shifting storm tracks move away from the marginal seas around Korea, as is predicted by the end of the century.

scholarly journals A successful prediction of the record CO 2 rise associated with the 2015/2016 El Niño

2018 ◽  
Vol 373 (1760) ◽  
pp. 20170301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard A. Betts ◽  
Chris D. Jones ◽  
Jeff. R. Knight ◽  
Ralph. F. Keeling ◽  
John. J. Kennedy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Concentration ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
First Year ◽  
Mauna Loa ◽  
Simple Extrapolation ◽  
Biosphere Model ◽  
The Impact

In early 2016, we predicted that the annual rise in carbon dioxide concentration at Mauna Loa would be the largest on record. Our forecast used a statistical relationship between observed and forecast sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region and the annual CO 2 rise. Here, we provide a formal verification of that forecast. The observed rise of 3.4 ppm relative to 2015 was within the forecast range of 3.15 ± 0.53 ppm, so the prediction was successful. A global terrestrial biosphere model supports the expectation that the El Niño weakened the tropical land carbon sink. We estimate that the El Niño contributed approximately 25% to the record rise in CO 2 , with 75% due to anthropogenic emissions. The 2015/2016 CO 2 rise was greater than that following the previous large El Niño in 1997/1998, because anthropogenic emissions had increased. We had also correctly predicted that 2016 would be the first year with monthly mean CO 2 above 400 ppm all year round. We now estimate that atmospheric CO 2 at Mauna Loa would have remained above 400 ppm all year round in 2016 even if the El Niño had not occurred, contrary to our previous expectations based on a simple extrapolation of previous trends. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.

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