scholarly journals Simulating the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing with the UM-UKCA model: the role of detection method and natural variability

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ewa M. Bednarz ◽  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
Paul J. Telford ◽  
Peter Braesicke ◽  
N. Luke Abraham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Detection Method ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Atmospheric Response ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Active Season ◽  
Atmospheric Forcings

Abstract. The 11-year solar cycle forcing is recognised as a potentially important atmospheric forcing; however, there remain uncertainties in characterising the effects of the solar variability on the atmosphere from observations and models. Here we present the first detailed assessment of the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle in the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model using an ensemble of integrations over the recent past. Comparison of the model simulations is made with observations and reanalysis. Importantly, in contrast to the majority of previous studies of the solar cycle impacts, we pay particular attention to the role of detection method by comparing the results diagnosed using both a composite and a multiple linear regression method. We show that stratospheric solar responses diagnosed using both techniques largely agree with each other within the associated uncertainties; however, the results show that apparently different signals can be identified by the methods in the troposphere and in the tropical lower stratosphere. Lastly, we focus on the role of internal atmospheric variability on the detection of the 11-year solar responses by comparing the results diagnosed from individual model ensemble members (as opposed to those diagnosed from the full ensemble). We show overall agreement between the ensemble members in the tropical and mid-latitude mid-stratosphere-to-lower-mesosphere, but larger apparent differences at NH high latitudes during the dynamically active season. Our results highlight the need for long data sets for confident detection of solar cycle impacts in the atmosphere, as well as for more research on possible interdependence of the solar cycle forcing with other atmospheric forcings and processes (e.g. QBO, ENSO… etc.).

scholarly journals Simulating the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing with the UM-UKCA model: the role of detection method and natural variability

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (7) ◽  
pp. 5209-5233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ewa M. Bednarz ◽  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
Paul J. Telford ◽  
Peter Braesicke ◽  
N. Luke Abraham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Critical Discussion ◽  
Atmospheric Response ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Model Composite ◽  
Aerosol Model ◽  
Active Season

Abstract. The 11-year solar cycle forcing is recognised as an important atmospheric forcing; however, there remain uncertainties in characterising the effects of solar variability on the atmosphere from observations and models. Here we present the first detailed assessment of the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle in the UM-UKCA (Unified Model coupled to the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol model) chemistry–climate model (CCM) using a three-member ensemble over the recent past (1966–2010). Comparison of the model simulations is made with satellite observations and reanalysis datasets. The UM-UKCA model produces a statistically significant response to the 11-year solar cycle in stratospheric temperatures, ozone and zonal winds. However, there are also differences in magnitude, spatial structure and timing of the signals compared to observational and reanalysis estimates. This could be due to deficiencies in the model performance, and so we include a critical discussion of the model limitations, and/or uncertainties in the current observational estimates of the solar cycle signals. Importantly, in contrast to many previous studies of the solar cycle impacts, we pay particular attention to the role of the chosen analysis method in UM-UKCA by comparing the model composite and a multiple linear regression (MLR) results. We show that the stratospheric solar responses diagnosed using both techniques largely agree with each other within the associated uncertainties; however, the results show that apparently different signals can be identified by the methods in the troposphere and in the tropical lower stratosphere. Lastly, we examine how internal atmospheric variability affects the detection of the 11-year solar responses in the model by comparing the results diagnosed from the three individual ensemble members (as opposed to those diagnosed from the full ensemble). We show overall agreement between the responses diagnosed for the ensemble members in the tropical and mid-latitude mid-stratosphere to lower mesosphere but larger apparent differences at Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes during the dynamically active season. Our UM-UKCA results suggest the need for long data sets for confident detection of solar cycle impacts in the atmosphere, as well as for more research on possible interdependence of the solar cycle forcing with other atmospheric forcings and processes (e.g. Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, QBO; El Niño–Southern Oscillation, ENSO).

scholarly journals Separating the role of direct radiative heating and photolysis in modulating the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ewa M. Bednarz ◽  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
Peter Braesicke ◽  
Paul J. Telford ◽  
N. Luke Abraham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heating Temperature ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Dynamical Response ◽  
Atmospheric Response ◽  
Active Season ◽  
Photolysis Rates ◽  
Induced Changes ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. The atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing is separated into the contributions from changes in direct radiative heating and photolysis rates using specially designed sensitivity simulations with the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model. We find that contributions from changes in direct heating and photolysis rates are important for determining the shortwave heating, temperature and ozone responses to the solar cycle forcing. The combined effects of the processes are found to be largely additive in the tropics but non-additive in the high latitudes, in particular in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) during the dynamically active season. We find marked differences in the changes in magnitude and vertical structure of shortwave heating rates gradients across the SH in austral winter, thereby highlighting a potential sensitivity of the polar dynamical response to the altitude of the anomalous radiative tendencies. In addition, our results indicate that, in contrast to the original mechanism proposed in the literature, the solar-induced changes in the horizontal shortwave heating rate gradients not only in autumn/early winter, but throughout the dynamically active season are important for modulating the dynamical response. In spring, these gradients are strongly influenced by the shortwave heating anomalies at higher southern latitudes, which are closely linked to the concurrent changes in ozone. Our results suggest that solar-induced changes in ozone, both in the tropics/mid-latitudes and the polar regions, are important for modulating the SH dynamical response to the 11-year solar cycle. In addition, the markedly non-additive character of the SH polar vortex response simulated in austral spring highlights the need for consistent model implementation of the solar cycle forcing in both the radiative heating and photolysis schemes.

scholarly journals Separating the role of direct radiative heating and photolysis in modulating the atmospheric response to the amplitude of the 11-year solar cycle forcing

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (15) ◽  
pp. 9833-9846
Author(s):  
Ewa M. Bednarz ◽  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
Peter Braesicke ◽  
Paul J. Telford ◽  
N. Luke Abraham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Heating Temperature ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Dynamical Response ◽  
Atmospheric Response ◽  
Active Season ◽  
Photolysis Rates ◽  
Induced Changes ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. The atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle is separated into the contributions from changes in direct radiative heating and photolysis rates using specially designed sensitivity simulations with the UM-UKCA (Unified Model coupled to the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol model) chemistry–climate model. We perform a number of idealised time-slice experiments under perpetual solar maximum (SMAX) and minimum conditions (SMIN), and we find that contributions from changes in direct heating and photolysis rates are both important for determining the stratospheric shortwave heating, temperature and ozone responses to the amplitude of the 11-year solar cycle. The combined effects of the processes are found to be largely additive in the tropics but nonadditive in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitudes during the dynamically active season. Our results indicate that, in contrast to the original mechanism proposed in the literature, the solar-induced changes in the horizontal shortwave heating rate gradients not only in autumn/early winter but throughout the dynamically active season are important for modulating the dynamical response to changes in solar forcing. In spring, these gradients are strongly influenced by the shortwave heating anomalies at higher southern latitudes, which are closely linked to the concurrent changes in ozone. In addition, our simulations indicate differences in the winter SH dynamical responses between the experiments. We suggest a couple of potential drivers of the simulated differences, i.e. the role of enhanced zonally asymmetric ozone heating brought about by the increased solar-induced ozone levels under SMAX and/or sensitivity of the polar dynamical response to the altitude of the anomalous radiative tendencies. All in all, our results suggest that solar-induced changes in ozone, both in the tropics/mid-latitudes and the polar regions, are important for modulating the SH dynamical response to the 11-year solar cycle. In addition, the markedly nonadditive character of the SH polar vortex response simulated in austral spring highlights the need for consistent model implementation of the solar cycle forcing in both the radiative heating and photolysis schemes.

scholarly journals Solar cycle variations of stratospheric ozone and temperature in simulations of a coupled chemistry-climate model

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 1693-1706 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Austin ◽  
L. L. Hood ◽  
B. E. Soukharev
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Vertical Profile ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Solar Rotation ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Solar Phase

Abstract. The results from three 45-year simulations of a coupled chemistry climate model are analysed for solar cycle influences on ozone and temperature. The simulations include UV forcing at the top of the atmosphere, which includes a generic 27-day solar rotation effect as well as the observed monthly values of the solar fluxes. The results are analysed for the 27-day and 11-year cycles in temperature and ozone. In accordance with previous results, the 27-day cycle results are in good qualitative agreement with observations, particularly for ozone. However, the results show significant variations, typically a factor of two or more in sensitivity to solar flux, depending on the solar cycle. In the lower and middle stratosphere we show good agreement also between the modelled and observed 11-year cycle results for the ozone vertical profile averaged over low latitudes. In particular, the minimum in solar response near 20 hPa is well simulated. In comparison, experiments of the model with fixed solar phase (solar maximum/solar mean) and climatological sea surface temperatures lead to a poorer simulation of the solar response in the ozone vertical profile, indicating the need for variable phase simulations in solar sensitivity experiments. The role of sea surface temperatures and tropical upwelling in simulating the ozone minimum response are also discussed.

scholarly journals The 1985 Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude total column ozone anomaly

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (21) ◽  
pp. 5625-5637 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. E. Bodeker ◽  
H. Garny ◽  
D. Smale ◽  
M. Dameris ◽  
R. Deckert
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Total Column ◽  
Daily Total

Abstract. One of the most significant events in the evolution of the ozone layer over southern mid-latitudes since the late 1970s was the large decrease observed in 1985. This event remains unexplained and a detailed investigation of the mechanisms responsible for the event has not previously been undertaken. In this study, the 1985 Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude total column ozone anomaly is analyzed in detail based on observed daily total column ozone fields, stratospheric dynamical fields, and calculated diagnostics of stratospheric mixing. The 1985 anomaly appears to result from a combination of (i) an anomaly in the meridional circulation resulting from the westerly phase of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), (ii) weaker transport of ozone from its tropical mid-stratosphere source across the sub-tropical barrier to mid-latitudes related to the particular phasing of the QBO with respect to the annual cycle, and (iii) a solar cycle induced reduction in ozone. Similar QBO and solar cycle influences prevailed in 1997 and 2006 when again total column ozone was found to be suppressed over southern mid-latitudes. The results based on observations are compared and contrasted with analyses of ozone and dynamical fields from the ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM coupled chemistry-climate model (hereafter referred to as E39C). Equatorial winds in the E39C model are nudged towards observed winds between 10° S and 10° N and the ability of this model to produce an ozone anomaly in 1985, similar to that observed, confirms the role of the QBO in effecting the anomaly.

Participant recruitment and data collection through Facebook: the role of personality factors

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean Chandler Rife ◽  
Kelly L. Cate ◽  
Michal Kosinski ◽  
David Stillwell
Keyword(s):  
Data Collection ◽  
Social Research ◽  
Personality Factors ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Social Networking Service ◽  
Participant Recruitment ◽  
Conducting Research ◽  
Promising Avenue

As participant recruitment and data collection over the Internet have become more common, numerous observers have expressed concern regarding the validity of research conducted in this fashion. One growing method of conducting research over the Internet involves recruiting participants and administering questionnaires over Facebook, the world’s largest social networking service. If Facebook is to be considered a viable platform for social research, it is necessary to demonstrate that Facebook users are sufficiently heterogeneous and that research conducted through Facebook is likely to produce results that can be generalized to a larger population. The present study examines these questions by comparing demographic and personality data collected over Facebook with data collected through a standalone website, and data collected from college undergraduates at two universities. Results indicate that statistically significant differences exist between Facebook data and the comparison data-sets, but since 80% of analyses exhibited partial η2 < .05, such differences are small or practically nonsignificant in magnitude. We conclude that Facebook is a viable research platform, and that recruiting Facebook users for research purposes is a promising avenue that offers numerous advantages over traditional samples.

scholarly journals On the Prediction of Solar Cycles

Solar Physics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 296 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Courtillot ◽  
F. Lopes ◽  
J. L. Le Mouël
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Transfer Function ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Activity Cycle ◽  
Solar Activity Cycle ◽  
Planetary Motion ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Jovian Planets

AbstractThis article deals with the prediction of the upcoming solar activity cycle, Solar Cycle 25. We propose that astronomical ephemeris, specifically taken from the catalogs of aphelia of the four Jovian planets, could be drivers of variations in solar activity, represented by the series of sunspot numbers (SSN) from 1749 to 2020. We use singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to associate components with similar periods in the ephemeris and SSN. We determine the transfer function between the two data sets. We improve the match in successive steps: first with Jupiter only, then with the four Jovian planets and finally including commensurable periods of pairs and pairs of pairs of the Jovian planets (following Mörth and Schlamminger in Planetary Motion, Sunspots and Climate, Solar-Terrestrial Influences on Weather and Climate, 193, 1979). The transfer function can be applied to the ephemeris to predict future cycles. We test this with success using the “hindcast prediction” of Solar Cycles 21 to 24, using only data preceding these cycles, and by analyzing separately two 130 and 140 year-long halves of the original series. We conclude with a prediction of Solar Cycle 25 that can be compared to a dozen predictions by other authors: the maximum would occur in 2026.2 (± 1 yr) and reach an amplitude of 97.6 (± 7.8), similar to that of Solar Cycle 24, therefore sketching a new “Modern minimum”, following the Dalton and Gleissberg minima.

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